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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Third-Party Supplier Risk Re-Classification Using Multi-Model Semantic Voting and External Web Augmentation

Risk decisions in many third-party risk management (TPRM) workflows rely on static inherent risk questionnaires (IRQ). These static forms provide a snapshot of the vendor from the business users’ perspective, as these requests are processed without cross-referencing for evidence. Consequently, responses can be misinformed or embellished with inaccuracies, thereby masking the vendor’s true risk to the enterprise. This paper presents a multi-stage verification framework to augment IRQs with web evidence and a deterministic ensemble of large language model assessors to reclassify risk. In a case study of 100 submissions previously misclassified as low risk, the proposed framework correctly identified 76% of the cases as high risk, while the existing workflow identified none. McNemar’s continuity corrected statistics of 74 were obtained with a two sided p-value of 2.65 × 10-23, indicating a significantly more effective workflow compared to the legacy model.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1993

NASA safety program activities in support of the Space Exploration Initiatives Nuclear Propulsion program

The activities of the joint NASA/DOE/DOD Nuclear Propulsion Program Technical Panels have been used as the basis for the current development of safety policies and requirements for the Space Exploration Initiatives (SEI) Nuclear Propulsion Technology development program. The Safety Division of the NASA Office of Safety and Mission Quality has initiated efforts to develop policies for the safe use of nuclear propulsion in space through involvement in the joint agency Nuclear Safety Policy Working Group (NSPWG), encouraged expansion of the initial policy development into proposed programmatic requirements, and suggested further expansion into the overall risk assessment and risk management process for the NASA Exploration Program. Similar efforts are underway within the Department of Energy to ensure the safe development and testing of nuclear propulsion systems on Earth. This paper describes the NASA safety policy related to requirements for the design of systems that may operate where Earth re-entry is a possibility. The expected plan of action is to support and oversee activities related to the technology development of nuclear propulsion in space, and support the overall safety and risk management program being developed for the NASA Exploration Program.

Sawyer, J. C., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids With Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distribution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. Demand-side participation cannot be leveraged effectively without explicitly including the distribution system dynamics in the optimization-based wholesale market operations. This project grew from a vision for co-optimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system. In this framework, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy management system of the lower voltage system (distribution or microgrid) can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. An ideal microgrid is defined as an electric entity capable of operating in both interconnected (with the high-voltage grid) and islanded mode. As such, the microgrid should incorporate generating units (traditional units and intermittent) and if needed, exchange power with the high-voltage grid. The interplay between the microgrid and high-voltage grid motivated the development of the co-optimization approach to ensure efficient performance of the interconnected network. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2011

Human Factors Throughout the Life Cycle: Lessons Learned from the Shuttle Program

With the ending of the Space Shuttle Program, it is critical that we not forget the Human Factors lessons we have learned over the years. At every phase of the life cycle, from manufacturing, processing and integrating vehicle and payload, to launch, flight operations, mission control and landing, hundreds of teams have worked together to achieve mission success in one of the most complex, high-risk socio-technical enterprises ever designed. Just as there was great diversity in the types of operations performed at every stage, there was a myriad of human factors that could further complicate these human systems. A single mishap or close call could point to issues at the individual level (perceptual or workload limitations, training, fatigue, human error susceptibilities), the task level (design of tools, procedures and aspects of the workplace), as well as the organizational level (appropriate resources, safety policies, information access and communication channels). While we have often had to learn through human mistakes and technological failures, we have also begun to understand how to design human systems in which individuals can excel, where tasks and procedures are not only safe but efficient, and how organizations can foster a proactive approach to managing risk and supporting human enterprises. Panelists will talk about their experiences as they relate human factors to a particular phase of the shuttle life cycle. They will conclude with a framework for tying together human factors lessons-learned into system-level risk management strategies.

human factors↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCA Tools - SCRM Value Add or Lossy Noise Machines

Software supply chain risk management (SCRM) depends upon accurate information regarding the software components that comprise any given software system. The collection of components included in a software package can be organized within a software bill of materials, or SBOM. SBOMs are ideally generated when the software components are put together, such as at compile time, but for many reasons that has not and is not always possible. For example, legacy or proprietary software packages often do not have SBOMs available to downstream consumers of that software. It’s not just end users that are affected, manufacturers themselves also must deal with this problem. To answer these questions, the market has seen the rise of several commercial software composition analysis (SCA) tools. These tools aim to peer into completed software systems, automatically identifying hidden software dependencies and looking up known vulnerabilities associated with those dependencies to enable end-users to enhance their cyber supply chain risk management processes. These tools are potentially a huge boon to end users of legacy and proprietary software – and a potential bane, depending on how accurate they are. This research asks that question – how accurate are currently available binary SCA tools – and provides answers to several other questions: What does it mean to be “accurate”? What limitations do the tools have in identifying common edge cases that take place in modern software development? Can they help you avoid a devastating supply chain attack, or is it all just noise? After researching SCA tools on the market, we identified three vendors that fit our use case and would provide analysis on compiled binaries. Using these tools, we submitted firmware for critical infrastructure devices for analysis and SBOM generation. The SBOM outputs were then cross referenced with SBOMs generated through manual analysis for comparison. In addition to the firmware samples, we also submitted edge case samples based off a popular open-source library that were specifically crafted to evaluate each tools’ ability to accurately identify components. These samples were customized to be consistent with modifications we have seen in modern software development as well as a couple that are representative of supply chain attacks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A decade of progress in understanding and managing legacy well integrity for geologic carbon storage

This study reviews a decade of research progress in legacy well integrity and risk management for geologic carbon storage (GCS) to commemorate the 20 th anniversary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2005 Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage. In the past ten years, legacy well research has benefited from global efforts to constrain emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells, a continued focus on well materials performance in the presence of CO 2 -rich fluids, and practical experience gained through GCS implementation. Field measurements of abandoned well emissions show that leakage is not universal or catastrophic but forms a continuum of low-to-moderate fluxes that depend on isolation integrity and environmental attenuation. Materials research has constrained the conditions under which Portland cements exhibit self-sealing and non-sealing behaviors, and has identified the impact of geomechanical properties, non-uniform pathway apertures, multi-phase flow, and impurities in the CO 2 stream, on leakage pathways as important new areas for investigation. GCS projects at brownfield sites have inspired the creation of new workflows that integrate various tools and technologies to manage legacy well leakage risks. GCS implementation has also motivated a push towards scenario-based well modeling that directly informs permit applications. These advances inspire new research questions for the coming decade, particularly around the level of legacy well leakage risk that is environmentally acceptable and tolerable to stakeholders when sequestering millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually.

Carbon capture and storage↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Future of Safety Management

As the pace of aviation evolution accelerates, our approach to safety and risk management needs to evolve to cover expanded current day operations as well as participants not traditionally included in the airspace. To assure safety of an increasingly complex aviation system it is essential to leverage new processes and techniques that can more quickly identify and respond to emerging risks. The concept of an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) presents an advanced SMS framework designed to enable integrated safety management and assurance. To assure safety of future aviation operations and technologies, advanced SMS concepts must be designed such that they can evolve to keep pace as aviation continues to change and as new safety and risk management tools and techniques emerge.

safety↗
NASA NTRS2007

Engineering and Safety Partnership Enhances Safety of the Space Shuttle Program (SSP)

Project Management must use the risk assessment documents (RADs) as tools to support their decision making process. Therefore, these documents have to be initiated, developed, and evolved parallel to the life of the project. Technical preparation and safety compliance of these documents require a great deal of resources. Updating these documents after-the-fact not only requires substantial increase in resources - Project Cost -, but this task is also not useful and perhaps an unnecessary expense. Hazard Reports (HRs), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs), Critical Item Lists (CILs), Risk Management process are, among others, within this category. A positive action resulting from a strong partnership between interested parties is one way to get these documents and related processes and requirements, released and updated in useful time. The Space Shuttle Program (SSP) at the Marshall Space Flight Center has implemented a process which is having positive results and gaining acceptance within the Agency. A hybrid Panel, with equal interest and responsibilities for the two larger organizations, Safety and Engineering, is the focal point of this process. Called the Marshall Safety and Engineering Review Panel (MSERP), its charter (Space Shuttle Program Directive 110 F, April 15, 2005), and its Operating Control Plan emphasizes the technical and safety responsibilities over the program risk documents: HRs; FMEA/CILs; Engineering Changes; anomalies/problem resolutions and corrective action implementations, and trend analysis. The MSERP has undertaken its responsibilities with objectivity, assertiveness, dedication, has operated with focus, and has shown significant results and promising perspectives. The MSERP has been deeply involved in propulsion systems and integration, real time technical issues and other relevant reviews, since its conception. These activities have transformed the propulsion MSERP in a truly participative and value added panel, making a difference for the safety of the Space Shuttle Vehicle, its crew, and personnel. Because of the MSERP's valuable contribution to the assessment of safety risk for the SSP, this paper also proposes an enhanced Panel concept that takes this successful partnership concept to a higher level of 'true partnership'. The proposed panel is aimed to be responsible for the review and assessment of all risk relative to Safety for new and future aerospace and related programs.

Duarte, Alberto↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids with Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hazardous Chemical Inventory Guidelines, Purpose, and Process

The Environment, Safety, and Health Planning department at Sandia National Laboratories is interested in the purchase and storage of chemicals and their potential impact following an uncontrolled release. The large number of projects conducted at SNL make tracking every chemical purchase impractical; therefore, attention is focused on hazardous substances purchased in large quantities. Chemicals and quantities of concern are determined through regulatory guidelines; e.g., the OSHA Process Safety Management list, the EPA Risk Management Plan list, and the Department of Energy Subcommittee on Consequence Assessment and Protective Actions Emergency Response Planning Guidelines. Based on these regulations, a list of chemicals with quantities of concern was created using the Aerial Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) and SCREEN View chemical dispersion modelling software. The nature of this report does not draw conclusions, rather it documents the logic for a chemicals of concern list to ensure compliance with various regulations and form the basis for monitoring chemicals that may affect hazard classification. Hazardous Chemical Inventory Guidelines, Purpose, and Process 4 This page left blank.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1972

Cost reduction by integration of the assurance technologies.

It is shown how the cost of applying assurance disciplines to the development of complex systems can be reduced by integrating the mechanics of system engineering and system management into a 'Development Risk Control System'. The essential features of the integration process are examined. A 'Development Risk Management Model' is described, and the use of the model to integrate and thereby reduce the cost of other assurance disciplines is discussed and illustrated.

Ball, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Radiological health risks to astronauts from space activities and medical procedures

Radiation protection standards for space activities differ substantially from those applied to terrestrial working situations. The levels of radiation and subsequent hazards to which space workers are exposed are quite unlike anything found on Earth. The new more highly refined system of risk management involves assessing the risk to each space worker from all sources of radiation (occupational and non-occupational) at the organ level. The risk coefficients were applied to previous space and medical exposures (diagnostic x ray and nuclear medicine procedures) in order to estimate the radiation-induced lifetime cancer incidence and mortality risk. At present, the risk from medical procedures when compared to space activities is 14 times higher for cancer incidence and 13 times higher for cancer mortality; however, this will change as the per capita dose during Space Station Freedom and interplanetary missions increases and more is known about the risks from exposure to high-LET radiation.

Peterson, Leif E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability promise is not fulfilled at all. Decision makers in advanced technology areas have always known to discount the performance claims of a design to a degree in proportion to its stage of development, and at times have preferred the more mature design over the one of lesser maturity even with the latter promising substantially better performance once fielded. As with the broader measures of performance this has also been true for projected reliability performance. Paper estimates of potential advances in design reliability are to a degree uncertain in proportion to the maturity of the features being proposed to secure those advances. This is especially true when performance-enhancing features in other areas are also planned to be part of the development program.

Maggio, Gaspare↗