SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Analyses”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator: A parallel analysis to describe the use of Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant global threat. However, despite urgent need, there remains uncertainty surrounding best practices for pharmaceutical interventions to treat COVID-19. In particular, conflicting evidence has emerged surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, alone or in combination, for COVID-19. The COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator convened by the Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA, in collaboration with Friends of Cancer Research, assembled experts from the health systems research, regulatory science, data science, and epidemiology to participate in a large parallel analysis of different data sets to further explore the effectiveness of these treatments. Methods: Electronic health record (EHR) and claims data were extracted from seven separate databases. Parallel analyses were undertaken on data extracted from each source. Each analysis examined time to mortality in hospitalized patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and the two in combination as compared to patients not treated with either drug. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and propensity score methods were undertaken to adjust for confounding. Frequencies of adverse events in each treatment group were also examined. Results: Neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin, alone or in combination, were significantly associated with time to mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. No treatment groups appeared to have an elevated risk of adverse events. Conclusion: Administration of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and their combination appeared to have no effect on time to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Continued research is needed to clarify best practices surrounding treatment of COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Technical Overview: Breakdown of cost and scope growth through 90% Final Design

This report presents a breakdown of cost and scope growth for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project through the design phase, and includes observations, lessons learned, and the results from an independent project assessment. It presents the status and history of the project. Technology maturity is considered in high-level, qualitative comparison to other microreactor design efforts. Its purpose is to record MARVEL’s evolution and lessons learned from the planning and design phases through completion of 90% final design. Analyses included a detailed review of project cost, schedule, and periodic project reports and management documents. The Primary Coolant Apparatus Test (PCAT) is specifically highlighted. It was concluded that MARVEL would have benefited from more extensive planning early in the project to better define cost and schedule to provide more certainty in the total project cost and delivery date. Modest cost and schedule improvements may have been possible, but compared qualitatively, MARVEL’s total cost and schedule performance are consistent with that of other efforts currently underway. Better planning would have provided more certainty, improved risk mitigations, and potentially eliminated delays due to funding shortfalls. A recommended path forward is presented that addresses recommendations in the independent project assessment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic effects on flood hazards in a hyper-arid watershed: The 2015 Atacama floods

An unprecedented precipitation event in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile occurred in March 2015. Geomorphic alterations to the river channel and the coastal zone, coupled with the exceptional magnitude of the rainfall, caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. On the coast of the El Salado watershed, legacy mine tailings infilled the watershed-ocean connection, while the river channel was altered both by tailings and urbanization. The consequences of this event resulted from the coupling of anthropogenic geomorphic changes with an unusual climate event. Lack of field data, complex geomorphology and sediment loads influenced by human activity make analysing floods in these regions especially challenging. The objective of this work is to improve our understanding of the factors that control flood hazards by using numerical simulations to reconstruct the 2015 flood in El Salado. We carry out unsteady two-dimensional simulations fully coupled with the sediment concentration to identify the influence of tailing deposits, considering high-resolution data of the pre- and post-2015 flood topography. In conclusion, the results highlight the importance of specific event-based studies, using models that can help designing better strategies for climate change adaptation and risk mitigation, while providing information for risk reduction and channel restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Progress on Long-Term Objectives for the Development of Advanced Reactor Mechanistic Source Term Modeling and Simulation Tools

To assist both the advanced reactor industry and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the pursuit of reactor design and licensing, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has established a mechanistic source term (MST) research project under the auspices of the Multiphysics Applications technical area. MST analysis is central to the reactor licensing process and a focus of the NRC regarding their mission to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety and environment. The MST research project is a collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with a high-level objective to coordinate the development of comprehensive advanced reactor MST mod/sim capabilities to support risk-informed design and licensing decisions. As part of this effort, an MST mod/sim development pathway was developed in FY21, which outlines the high-level objectives and near-term tasks necessary to achieve the project objectives. Since publication of the development pathway, Argonne and SNL have focused initial efforts on addressing the “near-term tasks” outlined in the report, and the current work provides a status update of the progress achieved in FY22. This report is a progress update on 6 tasks supporting molten salt reactor (MSR) and sodium fast reactor (SFR) MST analyses which were initiated in FY22 as recommended high priority near-term tasks. These tasks were continued into FY23 as they also support previously recommended long-term development objectives to advance MST analyses for these advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Geomechanical Model to Predict the Impact of CO2-Induced Microstructural Alterations on the Cohesive-Frictional Behavior of Mt. Simon Sandstone

We investigated the influence of CO2-induced geochemical reactions on the cohesive-frictional properties of host rock within the context of CO2 storage in a saline aquifer and focused on the Mt. Simon sandstone. The research objective was to model geo-mechanical changes due to host rock exposure to CO2-saturated brine while accounting for heterogeneity, double-scale porosity, and granular structure. We formulated a three-level multi-scale model for host rocks. We conducted scanning electron microscopy analyses to probe the microstructure and grid nanoindentation to measure the mechanical response. We derived new nonlinear strength upscaling solutions to correlate the effective strength characteristics and the macroscopic yield surface to the micro-structure at the nano-, micro-, and meso-scales. Specifically, our theoretical model links CO2-induced microstructural alterations to a reduction in the size of the yield surface, and a drop in the value of the friction coefficient. In turn, regarding the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, the CO2-induced drop in friction coefficient is linked to an increase in the risk of fault slip and a higher probability of induced microseismicity during and after the end of CO2 underground injection operations. The theoretical model presented is essential for the geo-mechanical modeling of CO2 underground injection operations at multiple length-scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) has become widespread in fluid dynamics. Essentially a velocity field movie, the dynamic content provides temporal as well as spatial information, in contrast to conventional PIV offering only statistical ensembles of flow quantities. From these time series arise further analyses such as accelerometry, space-time correlations, frequency spectra of turbulence including spatial variability, and derivation of pressure fields and forces. The historical development of TR-PIV is chronicled, culminating in an assessment of the current state of technology in high-repetition-rate lasers and high-speed cameras. Commercialization of pulse-burst lasers has expanded TR-PIV into more flows, including the compressible regime, and has achieved MHz rates. Particle response times and peak locking during image interrogation require attention but generally are not impediments to success. Accuracy considerations are discussed, including the risks of noise and aliasing in spectral content. Oversampled TR-PIV measurements allow use of multi-frame image interrogation methods, which improve the precision of the correlation and raise the velocity dynamic range of PIV. In combination with volumetric methods and data assimilation, a full four-dimensional description of a flow is not only achievable but becoming standardized. Lastly, a survey of exemplary applications is followed by a few predictions concerning the future of TR-PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Product Innovation to Increase Low-to-Moderate-Income Customers' Adoption of Community Solar PV

This study aims to comprehensively analyze community solar project preferences for consumers and suppliers by conducting three distinct analyses. First we analyze the predictors of community solar contract adoption to understand how individual priorities affect the probability of adoption. Using an original data set of survey responses from potential community solar customers, we analyzed the predictors of contract adoption by employing a weighted logit model. We find that individuals who were previously familiar with community solar projects were significantly more likely to adopt than those who were not familiar. Secondly, a survey of community solar developers and financiers identified industry perceived barriers to community solar access and inclusion. Thirdly, we gathered payment performance information from community solar initiatives to measure how financial risks are perceived and how they interact with customer demographics. Our study is beneficial to the public by providing insights into the drivers and barriers of community solar adoption and sheds light on the importance of understanding individual priorities in designing effective community solar policies. The community solar industry has changed significantly since the beginning of this project. The industry continues to grow at a rapid rate, with an additional 7 gigawatts expected to come online between 2022 and 2027. With federal pressure to meet climate goals, as the harms of climate change continue to impact everybody, legislators are looking to community solar as a method to achieving their states energy policy goals. These new policies that push for low-to-moderate inclusion, coupled with the increase in community solar capacity illustrate a new era for the community solar industry. A number of policies have arisen in the last few months that push for more inclusive practices including the groundbreaking Solar for All program run by the EPA. The research created a “best practice” contract that can then be used, in conjunction with the manuscript and validated study, to pitch the industry on a more inclusive community solar product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low-nickel cathode chemistry for sustainable and high-energy lithium-ion batteries

The transition to sustainable energy storage demands lithium-ion batteries with high energy density and reduced reliance on critical metals such as nickel (Ni), yet current strategies to increase capacity have largely depended on raising Ni content, leading to escalating supply risks, rising costs and sustainability concerns. More critically, Ni-rich cathodes suffer from rapid electrochemical degradation driven by structural instability, creating an insurmountable trade-off between capacity and cycle life. Here, in this study, we introduce a low-Ni chemistry cathode, Li(Li 0.05 Ni 0.57 Mn 0.31 Co 0.07 )O 2 , with a radial phase integration design that overcomes these limitations, enabling a remarkable Ni usage reduction (Ni < 0.6) while demonstrating high capacity (215 mAh g −1 ) and markedly improved cyclability (~97% retention over 400 cycles) compared to conventional high-Ni cathodes (Ni = 0.8). Advanced X-ray and electron microscopy analyses reveal that the designed cathode exhibits a highly reversible oxygen anionic redox, benefiting from a structurally stable surface and minimizing irreversible phase transitions. Moreover, the integrated structure substantially mitigates lattice strain and improves mechanical stability even under harsh conditions. In conclusion, this advance offers a general design principle for developing next-generation cathodes that combine resource efficiency with long-term electrochemical reliability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing hybrid vigour using the thermal sensitivity of physiological trade-offs in tiger salamanders

Hybridization between species affects biodiversity and population sustainability in numerous ways, many of which depend on the fitness of the hybrid relative to the parental species. Hybrids can exhibit fitter phenotypes compared to the parental lineages, and this ‘hybrid vigour’ can then lead to the extinction of one or both parental lines. In this study, we analysed the relationship between water loss and gas exchange to compare physiological performance among three tiger salamander genotypes—the native California tiger salamander (CTS), the invasive barred tiger salamanders (BTS) and CTS × BTS hybrids across multiple temperatures (13.5°C, 20.5°C and 23.5°C). We developed a new index of performance, the water-gas exchange ratio (WGER), which we define as the ratio of gas exchange to evaporative water loss (μL V O 2 /μL H 2 O). The ratio describes the ability of an organism to support energetically costly activities with high levels of gas exchange while simultaneously limiting water loss to lower desiccation risk. We used flow through respirometry to measure the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate and resistance to water loss of each salamander genotype to compare indices of physiological performance. We found that temperature had a significant effect on metabolic rate and resistance to water loss, with both traits increasing as temperatures warmed. Across genotypes, we found that hybrids have a higher WGER than the native CTS, owing to a higher metabolic rate despite having a lower resistance to water loss. These results provide a greater insight into the physiological mechanisms driving hybrid vigour and offer a potential explanation for the rapid spread of salamander hybrids. More broadly, our introduction of the WGER may allow for species- or lineage-wide comparisons of physiological performance across changing environmental conditions, highlighting the insight that can be gleaned from multitrait analysis of organism performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated geological, economic, and risk assessment of underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a promising option to buffer variable renewable power and support the hydrogen economy. Yet this technology is early-stage, and key uncertainties remain about how coupled processes such as geochemical and geomechanical impacts affect long-term storage security. In this paper, we seek to integrate the results from a large, multi-scale research program to quantify core feasibility metrics and situate these studies within ongoing efforts. Through this work, we evaluate hydrogen recoverability during storage by assessing diffusive losses, losses to geochemical interactions and their subsequent impact on geomechanical properties, and losses to residual saturation during injection and withdrawal. Molecular and laboratory studies show that lithologic heterogeneity, pore geometry, and mineral surface chemistry govern hydrogen–rock interactions, controlling loss pathways. High-pressure coreflooding is used to estimate relative permeabilities and measure parameters needed for reservoir-scale sensitivity analyses. These core-scale experiments found early hydrogen breakthrough at low saturations driven by capillary and viscous fingering, which limits pore-space utilization at early times, while repeated injection and withdrawal cycles improve deliverability over time. Technoeconomic factors and purity requirements for end uses are also considered as part of our comprehensive feasibility analysis. Finally, we underscore the importance of geophysical monitoring and tailored injection strategies to maintain integrity and efficiency. Together, these results provide a quantitative foundation for safe, scalable deployment of UHS and highlight priorities for future integrated studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

A nomogram for prediction of stage III/IV gastric cancer outcome after surgery: A multicenter population‐based study

Abstract Most patients with gastric cancer (GC) are first diagnosed at stage III‐IV and surgery resection remains the primary therapeutic modality for these patients. However, clinical staging used for prediction of those patients provides limited information. We collected clinicopathological data and disease‐progression information from 508 patients with stage III‐IV GC at three Chinese hospitals and 1298 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Based on the stepwise multivariate regression model, we constructed a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The performance of discrimination for this model was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and receiver‐operating characteristic curve (ROC), and was validated using calibration plots. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that tumor size, age at diagnosis, N stage, tumor grade, and distant metastases were outstanding independent prognostic factors of stage III‐IV GC. We developed a nomogram based on these five prognostic predictors. In the training set, the C‐index of the nomogram was 0.645 (95% CI: 0.611‐0.679), which was higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM system alone (sixth TNM: 0.544; seventh TNM: 0.575; eighth TNM: 0.568). Similar results were observed in validation cohort. Moreover, calibration blots demonstrated good consistency between the actual and predicted OS probabilities. According to the nomogram, GC individuals could be classified into three groups (low‐, middle‐, and high‐risk) ( P < .001). Our nomogram complements the current staging system for prediction of individual prognosis with stage III‐IV GC, and may be helpful for making individualized treatment decisions.

Gao, Zhiying↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗