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DOE OSTI2023

Risk Assessment of Industrial Microbes Using a Terrestrial Mesocosm Platform

Abstract Industrial microbes and bio-derived products have emerged as an integral component of the bioeconomy, with an array of agricultural, bioenergy, and biomedical applications. However, the rapid development of microbial biotechnology raises concerns related to environmental escape of laboratory microbes, detection and tracking thereof, and resultant impact upon native ecosystems. Indeed, though wild-type and genetically modified microbes are actively deployed in industrial bioprocesses, an understanding of microbial interactivity and impact upon the environment is severely lacking. In particular, the persistence and sustained ecosystem impact of industrial microbes following laboratory release or unintentional laboratory escape remains largely unexplored. Herein, we investigate the applicability of soil-sorghum mesocosms for the ecological risk assessment of the industrial microbe, Saccharomyces cerevisiae . We developed and applied a suite of diagnostic and bioinformatic analyses, including digital droplet PCR, microscopy, and phylogenomic analyses to assess the impacts of a terrestrial ecosystem perturbation event over a 30-day time course. The platform enables reproducible, high-sensitivity tracking of S. cerevisiae in a complex soil microbiome and analysis of the impact upon abiotic soil characteristics and soil microbiome population dynamics and diversity. The resultant data indicate that even though S. cerevisiae is relatively short-lived in the soil, a single perturbation event can have sustained impact upon mesocosm soil composition and underlying microbial populations in our system, underscoring the necessity for more comprehensive risk assessment and development of mitigation and biocontainment strategies in industrial bioprocesses.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

CHRNA5 rs16969968 polymorphism is associated with lung cancer risk: A meta‐analysis

Abstract Objective To evaluate the genetic association between rs16969968 and lung cancer risk by meta‐analysis. Data source We searched eligible studies from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE up to Dec, 2017. Study selection Association studies concerning rs16969968 and lung cancer risk were included. We assessed the association strength between this polymorphism and risk of lung cancer by calculating odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI). Results A total of 26 data sets comprising 30 772 lung cancers and 90 954 controls were included. rs16969968 was found to be associated with lung cancer risk in population of European ancestry in all models (A vs. G: OR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.27‐1.33, P < 0.001; AA + GA vs. GG: OR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.33‐1.43, P < 0.001; AA vs. GG + GA: OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.38‐1.53, P < 0.001), consistent with previous genome‐wide association study (GWAS). However, no association was observed in Asians (A vs. G: OR = 1.19. 95%CI 0.95‐1.49, P = 0.131). The minor allele A may increase the risk of lung cancer in both smokers (OR = 1.33, 95%CI 1.29‐1.39, P < 0.001) and nonsmokers (OR = 1.25, 95%CI 1.12‐1.39, P < 0.001). There was no obvious publication bias in all analyses. Conclusions Our analysis provided more evidence that rs16969968 is a susceptibility locus of lung cancer in the Caucasians and that it may be not associated with the risk in the Asians.

Zhou, Wei↗

NASA NTRS2002

Human Factors Process Task Analysis Liquid Oxygen Pump Acceptance Test Procedure for the Advanced Technology Development Center

A process task analysis effort was undertaken by Dynacs Inc. commencing in June 2002 under contract from NASA YA-D6. Funding was provided through NASA's Ames Research Center (ARC), Code M/HQ, and Industrial Engineering and Safety (IES). The John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Engineering Development Contract (EDC) Task Order was 5SMA768. The scope of the effort was to conduct a Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HF PFMEA) of a hazardous activity and provide recommendations to eliminate or reduce the effects of errors caused by human factors. The Liquid Oxygen (LOX) Pump Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) was selected for this analysis. The HF PFMEA table (see appendix A) provides an analysis of six major categories evaluated for this study. These categories include Personnel Certification, Test Procedure Format, Test Procedure Safety Controls, Test Article Data, Instrumentation, and Voice Communication. For each specific requirement listed in appendix A, the following topics were addressed: Requirement, Potential Human Error, Performance-Shaping Factors, Potential Effects of the Error, Barriers and Controls, Risk Priority Numbers, and Recommended Actions. This report summarizes findings and gives recommendations as determined by the data contained in appendix A. It also includes a discussion of technology barriers and challenges to performing task analyses, as well as lessons learned. The HF PFMEA table in appendix A recommends the use of accepted and required safety criteria in order to reduce the risk of human error. The items with the highest risk priority numbers should receive the greatest amount of consideration. Implementation of the recommendations will result in a safer operation for all personnel.

Diorio, Kimberly A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk Analysis of a Hydrogen Generation Facility near a Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considering flexible plant operations to take advantage of excess thermal and electrical energy. One option for NPPs is to pursue hydrogen production through high temperature electrolysis as an alternate revenue stream to remain economically viable. The intent of this study is to investigate the risk of a hydrogen production facility in close proximity to an NPP. A 100 MW, 500 MW, and 1,000 MW facility are evaluated herein. Previous analyses have evaluated preliminary designs of a hydrogen production facility in a conservative manner to determine if it is feasible to co-locate the facility within 1 km of an NPP. This analysis specifically evaluates the risk components of different hydrogen production facility designs, including the likelihood of a leak within the system and the associated consequence to critical NPP targets. This analysis shows that although the likelihood of a leak in an HTEF is not negligible, the consequence to critical NPP targets is not expected to lead to a failure given adequate distance from the plant.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Western Sonoran Desert Water Resources: Evaluating Rock Pool Hydroperiod Fluctuation using Climate Variables to Inform Habitat Monitoring and Protection in the Western Sonoran Desert

Ephemeral freshwater rock pools, known as tinajas, have great biologic and cultural importance as sources of surface water in the western Sonoran Desert (WSD). Tinaja flooding and drying cycles, known as hydroperiods, vary based on meteorologic and climatologic conditions; however, a lack of extensive research relating climatic impacts to tinajas puts these critical ecosystems further at risk. The National Park Service (NPS) and the University of Arizona monitor the physical and ecological condition of tinajas in Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (OPCNM), AZ, using resource-intensive strategies: in situ trail cameras and direct measurements. To aid monitoring efforts, the NASA DEVELOP team aimed to incorporate remote sensing into NPS strategies by analyzing spatiotemporal climate data and tinaja hydroperiods in OPCNM between 1979–2022. Using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), University of Idaho Gridded Surface Meteorological Dataset (gridMET), and OpenET data, the team generated climatology maps and time series for OPCNM. The team compared these data to daily in situ hydroperiod observations from the University of Arizona between 2019–2022. Climate maps and time series showed increases in temperature and solar radiation (p<0.05), while analyses of in situ data showed correlations of hydroperiods with precipitation and evapotranspiration. End products identified high-risk tinajas and demonstrated that Earth observations can successfully be correlated with in situ hydroperiod observations. These results will support NPS efforts to prioritize water resource management and inform protocols driving the conservation of tinajas in OPCNM.

Anne Britton↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lifetime risk of suicide among survivors of the atomic bombings of Japan

Abstract Aims The long-term physical health effects of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are well characterised, but the psychological effects remain unclear. Therefore, we sought to determine whether measures of exposure severity, as indirect measures of psychological trauma arising from exposure to the atomic bombings, are associated with suicide mortality among atomic bomb survivors. Methods The Life Span Study is a prospective cohort study of 93 741 Japanese atomic bomb survivors who were located within 10 km of the hypocentre in Hiroshima or Nagasaki at the time of the bombings in 1945, and 26 579 residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were not in either city at the time of the bombings, matched to survivors on city, sex and age. Measures of exposure severity included: proximity to the hypocentre, type of shielding between the survivor and the blast and self-reported occurrence of acute radiation and thermal injuries. Date of death was obtained from the Japanese National Family Registry system. Cause of death was obtained from death certificates. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox regression models overall and stratified by sex and age. Results During the 60-year follow-up period (1950–2009), 1150 suicide deaths were recorded among 120 231 participants (23.6 per 100 000 person-years): 510 among 70 092 women (17.2 per 100 000 person-years) and 640 among 50 139 men (33.6 per 100 000 person-years). Overall, there was no association of proximity, type of shielding or the occurrence of acute injuries with suicide mortality. Among those <25 years of age at the time of the bombings, increased suicide risk was observed for survivors outside v . shielded inside any structure (HR: 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.48; interaction p = 0.054) and for those who reported flash burns (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.73; interaction p = 0.025). Sex-stratified analyses indicated that these associations were limited to men. Among women, closer proximity to the hypocentre was associated with a non-significant increase in suicide risk, with a positive association between proximity and suicide risk observed among women <15 years of age (HR: 1.09 per km; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.18; interaction p = 0.067). Conclusions Proximity to the hypocentre, shielding and acute injury presence do not generally appear to influence suicide mortality among atomic bomb survivors. However, heterogeneity may exist by age and sex, with younger survivors potentially more sensitive to psychological trauma. Coupled with other studies, our results suggest the importance of long-term monitoring of mental health among young populations exposed to catastrophic events or mass trauma.

Psychiatry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in sodium-cooled fast microreactors

Analysis of three sodium-cooled fast microreactors (SFMs) with thermal powers of 10, 30, and 50 MWt showed that smaller reactors result in lower radiological consequences during a postulated sabotage-induced event because of their reduced core inventory. All SFMs used U-10Zr metal fuel enriched to 15 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium and operated until their respective effective multiplication factor (k eff ) reduced to less than 1 or until the end of their operational lifespan. Sabotage scenarios were simulated at this point, when the fuel inventory within the core contains the highest-level of radioactivity. Radionuclide core inventories were calculated using the SCALE code at shutdown and 3 days post-shutdown. Dose consequence analyses were performed for three sabotage scenarios using the RASCAL tool. As microreactor developers plan for minimal on-site or complete off-site emergency response, it remains essential to evaluate their physical protection needs and potential hazards, including assessing postulated sabotage-induced events that could become more relevant. SFM licensees should identify a credible worst-case, major accident, estimate release source terms, and perform dose consequence analyses to evaluate site-specific physical protection measures. In conclusion, this recommendation supports a risk-informed, performance-based approach, aligning with applicable regulatory requirements, i.e., 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 rulemaking in the United States.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification of functional non-coding variants associated with orofacial cleft

Oral facial cleft (OFC) comprises cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) or cleft palate only. Genome wide association studies (GWAS) of isolated OFC have identified common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in many genomic loci where the presumed effector gene (for example, IRF6 in the 1q32 locus) is expressed in embryonic oral epithelium. To identify candidates for functional SNPs at eight such loci we conduct a massively parallel reporter assay in a fetal oral epithelial cell line, revealing SNPs with allele-specific effects on enhancer activity. We filter these SNPs against chromatin-mark evidence of enhancers and test a subset in traditional reporter assays, which support the candidacy of SNPs at loci containing FOXE1, IRF6, MAFB, TFAP2A, and TP63. For two SNPs near IRF6 and one near FOXE1, we engineer the genome of induced pluripotent stem cells, differentiate the cells into embryonic oral epithelium, and discover allele-specific effects on the levels of effector gene expression, and, in two cases, the binding affinity of transcription factors FOXE1 or ETS2. Conditional analyses of GWAS data suggest the two functional SNPs near IRF6 account for the majority of risk for CL/P at this locus. This study connects genetic variation associated with OFC to mechanisms of pathogenesis.

Kumari, Priyanka↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region

The project Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Rocky Mountain Carbon Capture and Storage (RMCCS) project investigated multiple geologic formations and characterized a local site on the Colorado Plateau for future CCS opportunities. The RMCCS project focused on the Cretaceous Dakota, Jurassic Entrada, and Pennsylvanian Weber Sandstones, the three largest regional formations. All formations in this project are potential CO2 storage resources for future power plants, natural gas processing plants, cement plants, and oil shale development projects. The area adjacent to Craig, Colorado, (Sand Wash Basin) was the area selected for detailed geologic characterization on the RMCCS project. The basin was selected in part because the geology can be extrapolated to other sites on the Colorado Plateau. Field mapping and seismic surveys were conducted to identify and evaluate the basin's structural configuration. A 9,745-foot deep characterization well was drilled to collect 131 feet of core and a suite of geophysical well log data. Petrophysical tests on samples of core were used to calibrate geophysical log data, which can be used to obtain storage resource estimates and evaluate associated uncertainty as well as simulate the hydrologic behavior of injected CO2. A detailed analysis of the primary formations (Dakota, Entrada and Weber sandstones) yielded a more accurate CO2 storage resource assessment for these formations within the Colorado Plateau; RMCCS estimates indicate a total CO2 storage resource of more than 38,000 million metric tons. The characterization of the Sand Wash Basin (2-D seismic surveys, multiple well logs and lithological, petrophysical and geochemical analyses) allowed for a detailed 3-D model to be constructed. The model served as the framework for analyses ranging from CO2 storage resource, injectivity, and subsurface flow to uncertainty estimates to evaluation of risk.

2-D seismic↗

NASA NTRS1976

Estimation of spares

Simplified technique to determine the number of spare parts required for a given risk level employs shrot-cut approximations in lieu of computer-assisted or complex computational analyses.

Mezzacappa, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Suitability of silica aerogel as a capture medium for interplanetary dust

Impact experiments using silica aerogel as a deceleration and capture medium for interplanetary dust are reported. A rough correlation is noted between increasing particle track lengths and decreasing aerogel density, and there is a poor correlation of track lengths with impact velocity at laboratory attainable velocities of 5-7 km/s. It is concluded that aerogel track lengths should not be used as velocity indicators. Chemical analyses are also reported of aerogel samples used in this study in order to assess the risks concerning contamination of interplanetary dust particles by the silica aerogel capture medium. It is demonstrated that this material is impressively clean.

Barrett, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Preliminary Results Obtained in Integrated Safety Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program Technologies

The goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to develop and demonstrate technologies that contribute to a reduction in the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of 5 by the year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by the year 2022. Integrated safety analysis of day-to-day operations and risks within those operations will provide an understanding of the Aviation Safety Program portfolio. Safety benefits analyses are currently being conducted. Preliminary results for the Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) projects of the AvSP have been completed by the Logistics Management Institute under a contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. These analyses include both a reliability analysis and a computer simulation model. The integrated safety analysis method comprises two principal components: a reliability model and a simulation model. In the reliability model, the results indicate how different technologies and systems will perform in normal, degraded, and failed modes of operation. In the simulation, an operational scenario is modeled. The primary purpose of the SVS project is to improve safety by providing visual-flightlike situation awareness during instrument conditions. The current analyses are an estimate of the benefits of SVS in avoiding controlled flight into terrain. The scenario modeled has an aircraft flying directly toward a terrain feature. When the flight crew determines that the aircraft is headed toward an obstruction, the aircraft executes a level turn at speed. The simulation is ended when the aircraft completes the turn.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication.

FMEA/FMECA↗

NASA NTRS2020

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model Based Engineering

Reliability prediction↗

NASA NTRS2021

Model-Based SMA Initiative Phase 1 Report: Reliability Tips Excerpt

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. [7] The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the designs. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering, using these recommended modeling techniques, to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risk assessment and communication.

Nancy J. Lindsey↗

NASA NTRS2003

Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Risk

Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure to ionizing space radiation is challenging in part because of uncertainties of low-dose distribution amongst cells, of unknown potentially synergistic effects of microgravity upon cellular protein-expression, and of processing dose-related damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant transformation, degrade the confidence of cancer risk-estimates. The NASA- specific responsibility to estimate the risks of radiogenic cancer in a limited number of astronauts is not amenable to epidemiologic study, thereby increasing this challenge. Developing adequately sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed close after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing malignant transformation by the cells absorbing that dose could be useful for resolving these challenges. Use of a multiparametric cellular biodosimeter is suggested using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for cancer-risk. Analytical techniques of genomics and proteomics may be used to establish dose-dependency of multiple gene- and protein- expressions resulting from radiation-induced cellular damage. Furthermore, gene- and protein-expression from cells in microgravity are known to be altered relative to cells grown on the ground at 1g. Therefore, hypotheses are proposed that 1) macromolecular expression caused by radiation-induced damage in cells in microgravity may be different than on the ground, and 2) different patterns of macromolecular expression in microgravity may alter human radiogenic cancer risk relative to radiation exposure on Earth. A new paradigm is accordingly suggested as a national database wherein genomic and proteomic datasets are registered and interrogated in order to provide statistically significant dose-dependent risk estimation of radiogenic cancer in astronauts.

Richmond, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Resolving Risks in Individual Astronauts: A New Paradigm for Critical Path Exposures

The limited number of astronauts available for risk-assessment prevents classic epidemiologic study, and thereby requires alternative approach to assessing risks within individual astronauts exposed to toxic agents identified within the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR). Developing a system of noninvasive real-time biodosimetry that provides large datasets for analyses before, during, and after missions for simultaneously determining 1) the kinds of toxic insult, 2) the degree of that insult, both within tissues absorbing that insult, would be usehl for resolving statistically significant risk-assessment in individual astronauts. Therefore, a currently achievable multiparametric paradigm is presented for use in analyzing gene-expression and protein-expression so as to establish predictive outcomes.

Richmond, Robert C.↗