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At least 361 records · Page 20

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Project Title: Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting NonPlanar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies

This is the final report for the project “Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting Non- Planar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies”, funded by DOE, and performed by Type One Energy from September, 2020, to March 2024 involving the Fusion Technology Institute at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, the Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to design and fabricate the first non-planar HTS (REBCO) coil for a high-field stellarator based on the SPARC tokamak’s VIPER cable concept. Stellarators at high fields make high-temperature superconducting magnets necessary for a compact fusion device. But the asymmetric and non-planar nature of its components, especially the magnets make it difficult for scalable producibility. To address these challenges, two promising technologies have emerged: advanced manufacturing (AM) for the supporting plates for forming the magnets, and high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cables inside the plates. AM has advanced enough to produce stellarator components with the necessary geometric complexity, size, and the precision, leading to potentially significant reductions in production time, cost, and waste. The cost of HTS tape has decreased dramatically, and progress in HTS planar magnet development has reached a point where it can be proposed for application to complex 3D non-planar magnets. The main objective of this project is to develop, demonstrate and pre-commercialize a novel, non-planar HTS coil shape that remains superconducting to achieve production scalable reductions in time and cost and performance. The proposed technology is based on the novel concept of a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil assembly. This project focuses on the design, fabrication, material optimization of cable design, and validation and demonstration of the high current carrying capability of superconducting magnets and their support in a complex 3D shape needed for application to stellarator magnetic plasma confinement. The specific objectives of this research program include: (1) The successful application of metal AM to build a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil, (2) An HTS cable and cross-section design that can conform to the required nonplanar coil shape (bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and remains superconducting at an engineering current density of 1.35 kA/cm 2 at 77 K and 1 tesla at the conductor (5 kA in the cable). To achieve the above challenging goals, we have formed a multidisciplinary research team consisting of members from Type One Energy and UW-Madison, MIT PSFC and CFS with complementary skills and strong facilities. The team worked collaboratively on fundamental and applied research on the following three major technical areas: (1) Design, fabrication, and optimization of non-planar HTS Cable The ultimate goal of the project is to determine if commercial REBCO tapes and additive manufacturing can be used to fabricate high field (≥ 10T) non-planar coils with tight bending radii (≃ 100mm) and with a degradation of the critical current (Ic) smaller than 20% with respect to the expected performance. We started with shorter length cable to evaluate the scalability of the production process and eventually reached multiple turns for higher magnetic fields. Our findings suggest that a stellarator coil system of a relevant size, characterized by its asymmetric and non-planar components, can be fabricated using a formed cable in plate method. This system can be simulated using a large-scale modeling approach. The use of hybrid modeling 3 techniques will be pivotal in reducing the complexity of the model and in assessing expected performance in designs. (2) Modeling and simulation of the non-planar HTS Cable Multiphysics simulations are performed using the commercial software and are carried out in self-field conditions, involving 2D and 3D models and twisted around one slot of twist-pitched VIPER cable. Multiphysics simulations are mainly focused on the coil for the critical current evaluation, the magnetic field map, self-Lorentz forces and mechanical, and magnetothermal behavior and the quench dynamics. The detailed model and prediction of the superconducting performance of a stellarator-relevant demonstration cable from numerical simulations supports the results from the actual testing backing the results. A detailed description and results are provided in the later sections. (3) Design, fabrication, and optimization of support for the non-planar HTS Cable The team developed an additive manufactured (AM) coil positioning plate that formed into the required non-planar geometry (with bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and to acceptable tolerances required for a stellarator magnet: (+0.25-mm from ideal on dimensions of coil positioning plates and up to +1-mm from ideal for position of wound coil). The plate materials is also included in this selection process from fabrication and 3D printing perspective and commensurate with eventual application to a fusion reactor. From the cost effectiveness point of view, the HTS coil and plate has the potential to cost less than that made in conventional methods with less waste (<75% waste) reducing time (<50%) and cost (<50%), especially as the AM field matures. The application of advanced manufacturing in the construction of the support plates will also lead to cost reduction, as the cables can be easily replaced, thereby making the assembly modular. With such high primary cost and time savings, high current densities and magnetic field, the funded R&D work has validated the designs, proven the feasibility, and characterized the performance of the HTS coil and plate assembly, paving the way for a relevant-size stellarator coil system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spallation Neutron Source Proton Power Upgrade (PPU) Project: Lessons Learned for CD-4

The SNS PPU project goals were to design, build, install and test the equipment necessary to double the accelerator power from 1.4 MW to 2.8 MW and to deliver a 2.0 MW qualified target. PPU also included the provision of a stub-out in the SNS accumulator-ring-to-target tunnel to facilitate a rapid connection to a new proton beamline for the Second Target Station (STS) project. The power capability was doubled by increasing the proton beam energy by 33% and the peak beam current by 50%, relative to pre-PPU accelerator performance. The project also included modifications to some buildings and services. The PPU project accomplished the energy upgrade by fabricating and installing new superconducting radiofrequency (RF) cryomodules, with supporting RF equipment, in the existing linac tunnel and klystron gallery, respectively. The High Voltage Converter Modulators (HVCM) and klystrons for some of the existing installed RF equipment were upgraded to handle the higher beam current. The increased beam power of 2 MW on the First Target Station (FTS) was enabled by the addition of a new high-volume gas injection system for pressure pulse and cavitation mitigation in the mercury target and a redesigned mercury target vessel.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

First Wave of Incentive-Driven CCS Projects in North Dakota

Conference poster presented at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference, Houston, Texas, March 28–30, 2022. While the central interior of North America offers a tremendous storage resource, optimization will be key to meaningfully reducing the more than 2.6 billion tons of CO 2 emitted annually from large point sources in the United States. These initial projects tend to have the most favorable economics and are often able to take advantage of the best geology, with little to no competition for resource. This initial wave of projects is informing investment in and creating the opportunity for innovation that will enable the next wave of incentive-based CCS projects. Such innovation is critical for reducing costs, enhancing the design and operability of the next wave of CCS projects, and realizing more of the 250 billion tons of storage resource in North Dakota.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

STILGAR End-of-Project Report

The Subsurface Tunnel Imaging LeveraGed by Analysis of Rayleigh wave ellipticity (STILGAR) project demonstrated an integrated geophysical approach for detecting, locating, and characterizing underground structural changes using dense seismic arrays and advanced inversion techniques. Field campaigns were conducted at two operational mines—the Redmond salt mine (Utah) and Graymont Pleasant Gap limestone mine (Pennsylvania)—providing real-world testbeds for monitoring anthropogenic subsurface activity. At the Redmond salt mine, seismic interferometry combined with back-projection inversion successfully identified continuous, low-amplitude signals from mining operations. The approach differentiated stationary from migrating anthropogenic sources, captured daily operational cycles, and validated the potential of passive seismic monitoring for remote detection of underground activity. At the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine, two dense seismic deployments in the spring and fall of 2023 generated over 4 TB of high-resolution data. Key outcomes included the relocation of 199 underground and 8 surface explosions with accuracies within tens of meters and the development of a 3D P-wave velocity model using the triple-difference tomography algorithm (tomoTD) that resolved major structural features such as the mine entrance, low-velocity tunnels, and roof-collapse areas. Ambient noise cross-correlation and back-projection analyses revealed persistent sources linked to ongoing mining activity, whereas horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and ellipticity studies confirmed stable site responses across seasons and identified soil thickness trends consistent with regional erosional and depositional processes. Checkerboard and sensitivity tests further validated the robustness of the tomographic results. Overall, the findings emphasize that although significant progress has been made in subsurface imaging, further work is needed to enhance the detection and localization of underground structures. Accurate imaging requires higher frequencies, yet anthropogenic sources tend to dominate the seismic record at those frequencies, and high-frequency surface waves are affected by higher modes that complicate interpretation. The improved detection and localization of human-induced signals enabled detailed temporal and spatial mapping of daily mine operations, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous anthropogenic source monitoring. Sensitivity to signals from nontraditional sources, such as fan operations, highlights the broader applicability of this approach to other industrial environments in which continuous and impulsive signals are present. The field campaigns produced a substantial volume of high-quality seismic data, supporting the development and testing of new methods for seismic source characterization and subsurface imaging. Future deployments should include sensors capable of recording lower frequencies to probe deeper structures, increase bandwidth to enhance resolution and sensitivity to both shallow and deep targets, and collect additional large-scale datasets to refine imaging and source characterization techniques. Moreover, conducting 3D modeling studies of seismic wavefields at higher frequencies will provide a better understanding of wave scattering and cavity–wavefield interactions in complex underground environments. In conclusion, the STILGAR project demonstrated that integrated seismic monitoring can effectively characterize underground operations, capturing both natural and anthropogenic signals. The approaches developed provide a foundation for improved detection, localization, and imaging of subsurface structures and are directly transferable to broader industrial monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Meadowview Neighborhood Electrification Project

Awarded a Congressionally Directed Spend (CDS) in 2023, Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) has successfully executed the Meadowview Neighborhood Electrification Project designed to demonstrate the efficacy of residential energy efficiency and weatherization upgrades for under-resourced communities positively impacting energy use reductions, financial metrics, and indoor air quality. Initially, the project sought to electrify and upgrade 300 homes in Sacramento’s Meadowview neighborhood. However, as interest and momentum grew, the project team proved increasingly efficient and was able to retrofit 374 homes. The project built on SMUD’s years of effort increasing energy efficiency, weatherization, and electrification for low-income residential customers—moving beyond incremental improvements toward full home electrification where it was both feasible and cost-effective.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Reese Housing Power Project (Final Technical Report)

The Reese Housing Power Project is located on Tribal trust land in Colusa, CA and expands existing medium-voltage distribution to seven new households with the addition of medium-voltage cabling, step down transformers, smart meters, and street lighting for the new development. The Tribe utilized their existing Co-Generation power plant and micro grid to supply the new homes with highly reliable power with fewer interruptions and at a reduced rate compared with the local utility. The project gives the Tribe greater independence from traditional power sources and provides jobs for the community. The project reduces electric energy costs, increases Tribe self-reliance, and provides highly reliable electric power to seven tribal members’ homes. Construction of the project also provided jobs for the community.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids: Modeled vs. empirical wholesale market value and net-value for co-located solar + storage projects [Slides]

Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. We model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities and compare the resulting value with standalone PV value, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Aniak Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project

The Native Village of Aniak (NVA) is a remote Yup’ik community in western Alaska. NVA is proposing to install energy efficiency measures in the Tribal Office, Community Center, Association of Village Council Presidents (AVCP) Office, and Duplex. The goal of the project is to reduce the overall energy use of the NVA by implementing energy efficiency measures in four high-use tribal buildings. This project expects to have the following outcomes: projected annual energy savings of approximately $24,238; projected annual reduction in fuel oil of roughly 1,802 gallons and electricity of around 24,537 kWh; and annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 84,594 pounds/year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Muckleshoot Indian Tribe-Energy Deployment (MITED) Project

The Muckleshoot Indian Tribe (MIT) collaborated with our Project Partner, GRID Alternatives (GRID), to install 132 kilowatts of direct current (kW-DC) of rooftop solar on three Tribal facilities. The three facilities are the Tribe’s Youth Drop-In Center, Canoe Shed, and Water Treatment Facility. The solar PV systems were originally anticipated to offset approximately 45% of the aggregate annual electricity usage of the three buildings. A major aspect of the MIT-ED project was providing hands-on paid training to five Muckleshoot Building Maintenance workers in solar PV installations, operations, and maintenance. The scope of work aligns with the Tribe’s goals of building local capacity and providing real world work experience and potential career opportunities in solar PV to its citizens. The Building Maintenance Department committed five of its current FTE employees to the project. GRID provided guidance for the MIT project team on identifying paid trainees as well as end goals of skill development through training, including a long-term Operations and Maintenance (O&M) plan tailored to the Tribe’s goals of local capacity building and stewardship of natural resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Recipe for ABC Multifamily Retrofits: Technologies, Financing, and Project Delivery

This report documents the final technical accomplishments and outcomes of Rocky Mountain Institute’s project under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Award DE-EE0009064. The project aimed to develop, validate, and scale whole building retrofit solutions for multifamily buildings, including two configurations of Integrated Mechanical System Pods (IMSP-C and IMSP-U), in alignment with DOE Advanced Building Construction (ABC) initiative's decarbonization and energy efficiency goals. While the project made significant progress in Budget Period 1 (Phase 1) and throughout Budget Period 2 (Phase 2), activities were discontinued as of March 26, 2025, following a Stop Work Order issued by DOE. As such, this report reflects all completed work through that date. The project did not enter Budget Periods 3 and 4 (Phase 2), and demonstration site implementation, field M&V, and final commercialization execution were not conducted.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Manhattan Project 1940s research on the prompt fission neutron spectrum

We describe how the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) was determined for the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos. Early work before World War II at American and British universities is described, together with theoretical work by Feather at Cambridge and Bethe at Los Alamos. As the Manhattan Project was being planned in 1942, two experiments on natural uranium were commissioned that proved to be influential: 1) An integral experiment at Chicago by Christy and Manley that accurately determined the average PFNS spectrum energy, 2.2 ± 0.2 MeV; 2) Bloch and Staub’s Stanford cyclotron measurement of the PFNS spectrum, which obtained an average energy of 1.70 ± 0.34 MeV. These two papers, previously unavailable outside of Los Alamos, are reproduced in the Supplementary Appendix. From these data, at the beginning of the project in 1943 Serber estimated an average 235 U PFNS energy of 2 MeV, and indeed this agrees with today’s best estimate. The challenges facing the scientists involved both the availability of only very small samples of enriched uranium and plutonium targets, and fast neutron detection technologies. During the project, 235 U and 239 Pu PFNS were measured by Nicodemus and Staub. These also proved to be quite accurate and gave an average spectrum energy of 2 MeV for 235 U. [This is not reproduced in the Appendix because it was published after the war in Physical Review 89, 1288 (1953)]. New methods were developed to enable more accurate measurements, and this paper describes how the PFNS was determined surprisingly well by 1945. We end by describing the post-war measurements in the 50s, including the PFNS data used by Ford and Wheeler in their simulations in 1951, the Bonner 1952 data, the seminal 1952 Watt paper with a new empirical parametrization of the PFNS, and the accurate PFNS measurement undertaken at Los Alamos by Cranberg et al. in 1956. We compare the measurements with our best understanding today as embodied in the Evaluated Nuclear Data File ENDF/B-VIII.0. Some images from historical documents in our Los Alamos National Security Research Center (NSRC) archives are shown.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, we calculate selected extreme daily precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical and future periods. We evaluate model performance of these indices and their return values in replicating similar quantities calculated from multiple gridded observational products. Difficulties in interpreting model quality in the context of observational uncertainties are discussed. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, we find there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their quality or projections of simulated extreme daily precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks

In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗