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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1995

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 48: Valuing information in an interactive environment

Consideration effort has been devoted over the past 30 years to developing methods and means of assessing the value of information. Two approaches - value in exchange and value in use - dominate; however, neither approach enjoys much practical application because validation schema for decision-making is missing. The approaches fail to measure objectively the real costs of acquiring information and the real benefits that information will yield. Moreover, these approaches collectively fail to provide economic justification to build and/or continue to support an information product or service. In addition, the impact of Cyberspace adds a new dimension to the problem. A new paradigm is required to make economic sense in this revolutionary information environment. In previous work, the authors explored the various approaches to measuring the value of information and concluded that, in large measure, these methods were unworkable concepts and constructs. Instead, they proposed several axioms for valuing information. Most particularly they concluded that the 'value of information cannot be measured in the absence of a specific task, objective, or goal.' This paper builds on those axioms and describes under which circumstances information can be measured in objective and actionable terms. This paper also proposes a methodology for undertaking such measures and validating the results.

Brinberg, Herbert R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Human Lunar Mission Capabilities Using SSTO, ISRU and LOX-Augmented NTR Technologies: A Preliminary Assessment

The feasibility of conducting human missions to the Moon is examined assuming the use of three 'high leverage' technologies: (1) a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicle, (2) 'in-situ' resource utilization (ISRU)--specifically 'lunar-derived' liquid oxygen (LUNOX), and (3) LOX-augmented nuclear thermal rocket (LANTR) propulsion. Lunar transportation system elements consisting of a LANTR-powered lunar transfer vehicle (LTV) and a chemical propulsion lunar landing/Earth return vehicle (LERV) are configured to fit within the 'compact' dimensions of the SSTO cargo bay (diameter: 4.6 m/length: 9.0 m) while satisfying an initial mass in low Earth orbit (IMLEO) limit of approximately 60 t (3 SSTO launches). Using approximately 8 t of LUNOX to 'reoxidize' the LERV for a 'direct return' flight to Earth reduces its size and mass allowing delivery to LEO on a single 20 t SSTO launch. Similarly, the LANTR engine's ability to operate at any oxygen/ hydrogen mixture ratio from 0 to 7 with high specific impulse (approximately 940 to 515 s) is exploited to reduce hydrogen tank volume, thereby improving packaging of the LANTR LTV's 'propulsion' and 'propellant modules'. Expendable and reusable, piloted and cargo missions and vehicle designs are presented along with estimates of LUNOX production required to support the different mission modes. Concluding remarks address the issue of lunar transportation system costs from the launch vehicle perspective.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Hydrologic Cycle Distributed Active Archive Center

The Marshall Space Flight Center Distributed Active Archive Center in Huntsville, Alabama supports the acquisition, production, archival and dissemination of data relevant to the study of the global hydrologic cycle. This paper describes the Hydrologic Cycle DAAC, surveys its principle data holdings, addresses future growth, and gives information for accessing the data sets.

Hardin, Danny M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the complexity of developing a model that can be used for successfully implementing a standardized management planning tool. The objective of this study was to implement an Integrated Wind Tunnel Planning System to improve the operations within the aeronautics testing and research group, in particular Wind Tunnel Enterprise. The study included following steps: Conducted literature search and expert discussions (NASA and Old Dominion University faculty), Performed environmental scan of NASA Langley wind tunnel operations as foundation for problem definition. Established operation requirements and evaluation methodologies. Examined windtunnel operations to map out the common characteristics, critical components, and system structure. Reviewed and evaluated various project scheduling and management systems for implementation, Evaluated and implemented "Theory of Constraints (TOC)" project scheduling methodology at NASA Langley wind tunnel operations together with NASA staff.

Jacobs, Derya, A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

Hemm, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2000

NASA Center for Computational Sciences: History and Resources

The Nasa Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) has been a leading capacity computing facility, providing a production environment and support resources to address the challenges facing the Earth and space sciences research community.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Knocke, Philip C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

NSTAR Extended Life Test Discharge Chamber Flake Analysis

The Extended Life Test (ELT) of the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Readiness (NSTAR) ion thruster was concluded after 30,352 hours of operation. The ELT was conducted using the Deep Space 1 (DS1) back-up flight engine, a 30 cm diameter xenon ion thruster. Post-test inspection of the ELT engine revealed numerous contaminant flakes distributed over the bottom of the cylindrical section of the anode within the discharge chamber (DC). Extensive analyses were conducted to determine the source of the particles, which is critical to the understanding of degradation mechanisms of long life ion thruster operation. Analyses included: optical microscopy (OM) and particle length histograms, field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) combined with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), and atomic oxygen plasma exposure tests. Analyses of the particles indicate that the majority of the DC flakes consist of a layered structure, typically with either two or three layers. The flakes comprising two layers were typically found to have a molybdenum-rich (Mo-rich) layer on one side and a carbon-rich (C-rich) layer on the other side. The flakes comprising three layers were found to be sandwich-like structures with Mo-rich exterior layers and a C-rich interior layer. The presence of the C-rich layers indicates that these particles were produced by sputter deposition build-up on a surface external to the discharge chamber from ion sputter erosion of the graphite target in the test chamber. This contaminant layer became thick enough that particles spalled off, and then were electro-statically attracted into the ion thruster interior, where they were coated with Mo from internal sputter erosion of the screen grid and cathode components. Atomic oxygen tests provided evidence that the DC chamber flakes are composed of a significant fraction of carbon. Particle size histograms further indicated that the source of the particles was spalling of carbon flakes from downstream surfaces. Analyses of flakes taken from the downstream surface of the accelerator grid provided additional supportive information. The production of the downstream carbon flakes, and hence the potential problems associated with the flake particles in the ELT ion thruster engine is a facility induced effect and would not occur in the space environment.

deGroh, Kim K.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Exploration-Related Research on ISS: Connecting Science Results to Future Missions

In January, 2004, the U.S. President announced The Vision for Space Exploration, and charged the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with using the International Space Station (ISS) for research and technology targeted at supporting U.S. space exploration goals. This paper describes: What we have learned from the first four years of research on ISS relative to the exploration mission; The on-going research being conducted in this regard; and Our current understanding of the major exploration mission risks that the ISS can be used to address. Specifically, we discuss research carried out on the ISS to determine the mechanisms by which human health is affected on long-duration missions, and to develop countermeasures to protect humans from the space environment. These bioastronautics experiments are key enablers of future long duration human exploration missions. We also discuss how targeted technological developments can enable mission design trade studies. We discuss the relationship between the ultimate number of human test subjects available on the ISS to the quality and quantity of scientific insight that can be used to reduce health risks to future explorers. We discuss the results of NASA's efforts over the past year to realign the ISS research programs to support a product-driven portfolio that is directed towards reducing the major risks of exploration missions. The fundamental challenge to science on ISS is completing experiments that answer key questions in time to shape design decisions for future exploration. In this context, exploration relevant research must do more than be conceptually connected to design decisions - it must become a part of the mission design process.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Fault Management Techniques in Human Spaceflight Operations

This paper discusses human spaceflight fault management operations. Fault detection and response capabilities available in current US human spaceflight programs Space Shuttle and International Space Station are described while emphasizing system design impacts on operational techniques and constraints. Preflight and inflight processes along with products used to anticipate, mitigate and respond to failures are introduced. Examples of operational products used to support failure responses are presented. Possible improvements in the state of the art, as well as prioritization and success criteria for their implementation are proposed. This paper describes how the architecture of a command and control system impacts operations in areas such as the required fault response times, automated vs. manual fault responses, use of workarounds, etc. The architecture includes the use of redundancy at the system and software function level, software capabilities, use of intelligent or autonomous systems, number and severity of software defects, etc. This in turn drives which Caution and Warning (C&W) events should be annunciated, C&W event classification, operator display designs, crew training, flight control team training, and procedure development. Other factors impacting operations are the complexity of a system, skills needed to understand and operate a system, and the use of commonality vs. optimized solutions for software and responses. Fault detection, annunciation, safing responses, and recovery capabilities are explored using real examples to uncover underlying philosophies and constraints. These factors directly impact operations in that the crew and flight control team need to understand what happened, why it happened, what the system is doing, and what, if any, corrective actions they need to perform. If a fault results in multiple C&W events, or if several faults occur simultaneously, the root cause(s) of the fault(s), as well as their vehicle-wide impacts, must be determined in order to maintain situational awareness. This allows both automated and manual recovery operations to focus on the real cause of the fault(s). An appropriate balance must be struck between correcting the root cause failure and addressing the impacts of that fault on other vehicle components. Lastly, this paper presents a strategy for using lessons learned to improve the software, displays, and procedures in addition to determining what is a candidate for automation. Enabling technologies and techniques are identified to promote system evolution from one that requires manual fault responses to one that uses automation and autonomy where they are most effective. These considerations include the value in correcting software defects in a timely manner, automation of repetitive tasks, making time critical responses autonomous, etc. The paper recommends the appropriate use of intelligent systems to determine the root causes of faults and correctly identify separate unrelated faults.

O'Hagan, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2004

Earth Atmosphere Observatory Formation at L2

This paper is a product of research supported by NASA under RASC (the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts) program. It presents an overall system architecture, and covers issues of deployment, navigation, and control related to a formation of two spacecraft in the neighborhood of the Sun-Earth L2 Lagrange point (on the Sun-Earth line), that serves as an observatory of Earth's atmosphere. The observatory concept definition study was a multi-center NASA effort conducted in 2003, and covered a much wider scope than is presented in this focused paper.The Earth observatory at L2 is a unique design concept that can improve the knowledge and understanding of dynamic, chemical and radiative mechanisms that cause changes in the atmosphere, and can lead to the development of models and techniques to predict short and long-term climate changes.

observatory↗

NASA NTRS2010

Using SCOR as a Supply Chain Management Framework for Government Agency Contract Requirements

This paper will present a model that uses the Supply-Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model as a foundation for a framework to illustrate the information needed throughout a product lifecycle to support a healthy supply chain management function and the subsequent contract requirements to enable it. It will also show where in the supply chain the information must be extracted. The ongoing case study used to exemplify the model is NASA's (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Ares I program for human spaceflight. Effective supply chain management and contract requirements are ongoing opportunities for continuous improvement within government agencies, specifically development of systems for human spaceflight operations. Multiple reports from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reinforce this importance. The SCOR model is a framework for describing a supply chain with process building blocks and business activities. It provides a set of metrics for measuring supply chain performance and best practices for continuously improving. This paper expands the application of the SCOR to also provide the framework for defining information needed from different levels of the supply chain and at different phases of the lifecycle. These needs can be incorporated into contracts to enable more effective supply chain management. Depending on the phase of the lifecycle, effective supply chain management will require involvement from different levels of the organization and different levels of the supply chain.

Paxton, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2010

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA's Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being formulated by NASA in response to the 2007 National Research Council s Decadal Survey. SMAP will make global measurements of soil moisture at the Earth's land surface and its freeze-thaw state. These measurements will allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. Knowledge gained from SMAP observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and social benefits. SMAP observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes will also reduce a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance and help to resolve an apparent missing carbon sink over land. The SMAP mission concept will utilize an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna flying in a 680 km polar orbit with an 8-day exact ground track repeat aboard a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every two to three days. In addition, the SMAP project will use these surface observations with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide estimates of deeper root-zone soil moisture and net ecosystem exchange of carbon. SMAP recently completed its Phase A Mission Concept Study Phase for NASA and transitioned into Phase B (Formulation and Detailed Design). A number of significant accomplishments occurred during this initial phase of mission development. The SMAP project held several open meetings to solicit community feedback on possible science algorithms, prepared preliminary draft Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs) for each mission science product, and established a prototype algorithm testbed to enable testing and evaluation of the performance of candidate algorithms. SMAP conducted an Applications Workshop in September 2009 to coordinate with potential application users interested in the mission data. A draft Applications Plan describing the Project s planned outreach to potential applications users has been prepared and will be updated during Phase B. SMAP made a significant evaluation of the potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI) source environment and established radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing mitigation approaches. SMAP finalized its science orbit and orbit injection approach to optimize launch mass and prepared launch and commissioning scenarios and timeline. A science data communications approach was developed to maximize available science data volume to improve science margins while maintaining moderately short data product latencies to support many potential applications using existing ground assets and with minimum impact to the flight system. SMAP developed rigid multi-body and flexible body dynamics and control models and system designs for the 6-meter rotating instrument reflector-boom assembly (RBA) and flight system to confirm pointing and control performance, and devised strategies to efficiently implement on-orbit balancing if needed. Industry partners were selected for the spin mechanism assembly (SMA) and RBA. Preliminary designs for the radar and radiometer were initiated, including constructing breadboards of key assemblies.

Kellogg, Kent↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Thin, Flexible IMM Solar Array

NASA needs solar arrays that are thin, flexible, and highly efficient; package compactly for launch; and deploy into large, structurally stable high-power generators. Inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) solar cells can enable these arrays, but integration of this thin crystalline cell technology presents certain challenges. The Thin Hybrid Interconnected Solar Array (THINS) technology allows robust and reliable integration of IMM cells into a flexible blanket comprising standardized modules engineered for easy production. The modules support the IMM cell by using multifunctional materials for structural stability, shielding, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) stress relief, and integrated thermal and electrical functions. The design approach includes total encapsulation, which benefits high voltage as well as electrostatic performance.

Walmsley, Nicholas↗

NASA NTRS2016

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Space Human Factors and Habitability and Behavioral Health and Performance Elements

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravity's impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

space human factors and habitability↗

NASA NTRS2016

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗