Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Population estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Kinetics of crystal nucleation and growth in Pd(40)Ni(40)P(20) glass

Samples of Pd(40)Ni(40)P(20) glass, produced by cooling the melt at 1 or 800 K/s, are heated in a differential scanning calorimeter to determine the crystallization kinetics. Optical microscopy shows that eutectic crystallization proceeds both by growth from the surface of the samples and by the growth of spherical regions around preexisting nuclei in the interior. A modified Kissinger (1957) analysis is used to obtain the activation energy for crystal growth (3.49 eV). The steady state homogeneous nucleation frequency at 590 K is about 10 million/cu m per sec. This is estimated to be the maximum nucleation frequency: it is too low to account for the observed population of quenched-in nuclei, which are therefore presumed to be heterogeneous. The major practical obstacle to glass formation in this system is heterogeneous nucleation.

Drehman, A. J.↗

Polarized fluorescence spectroscopy of O2(+)

Polarized fluorescence measurements involving the A 2Pi(u) - X 2Pi(g) and b 4Sigma(g)(-) - a 4Pi(u) transitions in O2(+) following narrow-band photoexcitation of O2/X 3Sigma(g)(-)/ are reported. The analysis, based on the conventional high-J limit, involves deducing the quadrupole alignment factor from which the relative strengths of degenerate photoexcitation channels responsible for the population distribution in the A 2Pi(u) and b 4Sigma(g)(-) states of O2(+) can be estimated. The measured A-channel polarization exhibits pronounced structure which correlates well with the known positions of Rydberg states, whereas the polarization signal in the b channel has broad and less prominent features. Discrepancies between theoretical and measured results can largely be accounted for by additional configuration mixing and autoionization considerations.

Keller, J. W.↗

End products of cometary evolution - Cometary origin of earth-crossing bodies of asteroidal appearance

The present state of the understanding of the dynamic mechanisms under which the orbits of some comets evolve into those observed for Apollo-Amor objects is reviewed. Observed Jupiter-family objects of asteroidal appearance, e.g., 1983SA, are much more likely to be of cometary rather than asteroidal origin. 'Decoupling' is facilitated by several mechanisms: perturbations by terrestrial planets, perturbations by Jupiter and the other giant planets, and nongravitational orbital changes caused by the loss of gas and dust from the comet. The dynamical time scale for decoupling is argued to be 100,000-1,000,000 yr, and almost all decoupled comets are likely to be of asteroidal appearance. Estimates can be made of the number of cometary Apollo-Amor 'asteroids', the observed number of earth-crossing active and inactive short-period comets, and the production rate of short-period comets. These estimates are compatible with other theoretical and observational inferences that suggest the presence of a significant population of Apollo objects that formerly were active comets.

Wetherill, G. W.↗

General Aviation Aircraft Reliability Study

This reliability study was performed in order to provide the aviation community with an estimate of Complex General Aviation (GA) Aircraft System reliability. To successfully improve the safety and reliability for the next generation of GA aircraft, a study of current GA aircraft attributes was prudent. This was accomplished by benchmarking the reliability of operational Complex GA Aircraft Systems. Specifically, Complex GA Aircraft System reliability was estimated using data obtained from the logbooks of a random sample of the Complex GA Aircraft population.

Pettit, Duane↗

GALEX Wide-field Ultraviolet Imaging of NGC 5128 (Centaurus-A)

We present new wide-field ultraviolet (UV) observations of the nearby active galaxy NGC 5128 (Centaurus A). The GALEX images provide 3.5 sec - 5.5 sec resolution over a 1.2 degree field, in two broad bands (1350- 1800A and 1800-3000A, centered at 1550A and 2200A). We detect ultraviolet emission associated with the radio and X-ray jets in both bands, extending out to a distance of approx. 40kpc from the galaxy nucleus. We compare the radio, X-ray, and UV jets, and discuss the feasibility of jet-induced star formation. We show how the UV emission relates to the optical filaments: HI and CO clouds, stellar shells, X-ray arcs, and young star chains previously reported by other authors. In the central region of NGC 5128, we detect UV emission from young super-star-clusters and associated ionized gas located along the near edge and on the upper surface of the dusty warped disk. All of the UV emission in the galaxy appears to result from intense star formation in the disk; none appears to be associated with the old stellar population of the main galaxy body, and no UV emission from the AGN is detected. We estimate the numbers and ages of the massive young stars present, and the associated ionized gas masses. Finally, we compare Cen-A to high redshift radio galaxies which were much more numerous in the earlier universe. The GALEX satellite is a NASA Small Explorer, launched in April 2003. We gratefully acknowledge NASA's support for construction, operation, and science analysis for the GALEX mission.

Neff, S. G.↗

Projecting the Local Impacts of Climate Change on a Central American Montane Avian Community

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

Gasner, Matthew R.↗

Revised estimates of NO 2 reductions during the COVID-19 lockdowns using updated TROPOMI NO 2 retrievals and model simulations

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) observed unprecedented declines in NO 2 vertical column densities (VCD) over the world's most densely populated cities during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns. These favorable changes in NO 2 air quality were correlated with sharp reductions in traffic volume and economic activity during the lockdowns. In this comprehensive global study, we provide revised estimates of the declines in anthropogenic emissions for 36 megacities using a novel methodology for disentangling the anthropogenic emissions from the meteorological transport and natural variability. We further quantify the uncertainty associated with changes in the a priori profile shape information during the lockdowns due to reduced emissions. Satellite NO 2 retrieval techniques calculate an air mass factor that requires a priori NO 2 profile shape information representative of the local atmosphere. This information, which is typically obtained from a chemical transport model (CTM), was not available for the early studies. This study also accounts for the satellite sampling errors resulting from the selective sampling of non-cloudy scenes during the study period. For our analysis, we used CTM simulations that were generated with and without COVID-impacted emissions. We perform retrievals of tropospheric NO 2 columns with the NASA NO 2 algorithm, and then use observed and simulated data to disentangle the meteorological transport from the contribution due anthropogenic emissions. We found that the meteorological transport was most significant source of variability ranging between −35% and 22% of the change total tropospheric VCD. We also find that not accounting for changes in the a priori NO 2 profile shape information during the lockdowns resulted in systematic retrieval errors that were up to 12% of the estimated decline, and the elimination of cloud contaminated scenes resulted in sampling errors that in general ranged between varied ±15%.

NO2↗

Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies

Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.

Bauer, M. E.↗

A Historical Overview of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Laboratory Optical Measurements

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used laboratory measurements to help bring ground-based measurements together with models to ascertain Earth-orbiting target parameters of interest to support various orbital debris models. In 2005, the Optical Measurement Center (OMC) was established to simulate space-based illumination conditions using equipment and techniques that recreate telescopic observations, particularly source-target-sensor orientations. The intent was to recreate light curves using known aspect angles of known targets and phase angles (angle is defined by the vertex between illumination source-object-detector) to complement telescopic observations that could be used to update the current optical size estimation model (OSEM) – a model that converts object brightness into size for orbital debris models. To support the above goals, the laboratory has undergone several equipment upgrades to increase capabilities over almost 20 years of operation. The primary instrumentation acquires reflectance measurements and includes a solar-like light source, CCD camera with astrometric filters, and robotic arm. A rotary arm was added approximately five years after full operation to allow acquisition through a full 360° range of phase angles. Another part of the OMC instrumentation is a field spectrometer, predominately used for field operations to acquire pre- and post-flight spacecraft material spectral measurements. Additionally, reflectance spectroscopy of various materials is also of interest resulting from hypervelocity impact tests, pristine spacecraft materials, or samples of materials that are used in spacecraft design. These measurements are stored in NASA’s Spectral Material Database, a resource that is still being populated today. The study of spectral measurements also enabled the development of spectral unmixing routines to support the identification of spacecraft materials from spectral data gathered by ground based telescopes. Preliminary OMC investigations focused on feasibility studies to acquire 360° rotation light curves of simple shapes at a single-phase angle and extended to measurements of representative fragments from ground-based explosion tests. To correlate the light curves with ground-based optical measurements, a focused study on high area to mass materials was conducted in support of a newly identified population (at the time) in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) consisting of multi-layered insulation. To further characterize orbital debris, a larger selection of materials was analyzed using laboratory photometric measurements that included representative targets from pristine spacecraft materials and ground-based impact tests. Around 2012, an initiative was requested to understand the feasibility of active debris removal (ADR) of larger targets using grappling methods for spent rocket bodies. Using a priori information on selected targets, scaled-down versions of rocket bodies were generated thanks to improvements in 3D printing technology and machining. These targets were studied in the OMC to understand rotation characteristics. These were compared with telescopic data to determine if the tumble and rotation angles would allow ADR. In 2013, the OMC focused on combining spectral measurements with photometric data to characterize GEO orbital debris. Several years later, NASA acquired a Titan III Transtage test article from “The Boneyard” with a high-resemblance to on-orbit Titan III Transtage rocket bodies, allowing physical access to a representative rocket body that suffered fragmentations in GEO. This prompted the creation of 3D models using lidar technology and spectral measurements of the materials. Focused research also transitioned to specific materials (i.e., solar cells) when telescopic surveys requested characterization of specific GEO targets. In the different research products presented, the focus has been to understand the various parameters that influence optical size estimation, including albedo, phase functions, and brightness variations. Work in this area continues with newer sources of data, including DebriSat, a high-fidelity 56-kg spacecraft replica representative of a modern low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite subjected to a laboratory hypervelocity impact test to understand fragmentation events and to support updates to satellite breakup models and size estimation models. Utilizing the vast population of fragments from DebriSat and prior laboratory impact experiments, the ODPO has focused on acquiring bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) data to characterize targets in the laboratory, thus removing aspect angle dependencies. Additionally, the DebriSat project has provided improved processes for measuring size via image acquisition, such that a true fragment size can be directly compared to the derived size using the OSEM. The team continues to assess BRDFs and use spectral measurement data to investigate the parameters used in the OSEM, specifically magnitudes, albedo, and phase functions.

Heather Cowardin↗

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗

Assessment of Sustainability Development in Urban Areas of Morocco

In Morocco, the last census counted 70% of houses in cities, with seven cities accounting for 25% of the total population and 41% of the urban population. This paper questioned the sustainability indicator in Moroccan cities using a novel methodology based on Earth observations and census data. We estimated the indicator for the 25 largest urban areas between 2003 and 2013. A stratification based on urbanization fractions allowed for the definition and comparison of hierarchically ordered zones consistent across urban areas and scales. We found no systematic pattern of growth between cities. However, three categories of development were identified: a group of large cities with an indicator less than unity and land consumption commensurate to population growth, a group of medium-sized cities trending moderately towards unsustainability with an indicator between one and two, and a group including small cities with significant departure from sustainability. The disparate sustainability levels between urban areas appear to be related to the rapid economic growth, typical of an emerging economy. Our results indicate a continuous population growth pushing outwards the perimeters of existing urban areas. Unless regulated, land consumption is increasing faster than the population in most parts of Morocco, in line with global trends.

Lahouari Bounoua↗

A comparison of reliability and conventional estimation of safe fatigue life and safe inspection intervals

Both the conventional and reliability analyses for determining safe fatigue life are predicted on a population having a specified (usually log normal) distribution of life to collapse under a fatigue test load. Under a random service load spectrum, random occurrences of load larger than the fatigue test load may confront and cause collapse of structures which are weakened, though not yet to the fatigue test load. These collapses are included in reliability but excluded in conventional analysis. The theory of risk determination by each method is given, and several reasonably typical examples have been worked out, in which it transpires that if one excludes collapse through exceedance of the uncracked strength, the reliability and conventional analyses gave virtually identical probabilities of failure or survival.

Hooke, F. H.↗

The astrometric binary Mu Cassiopeiae - Photographically almost resolved

Photographic observations of the Population II subdwarf astrometric binary Mu Cas are described which almost resolve the components and permit an estimate of their magnitudes and separation. Red- and blue-light photographs of the system were taken during an observing period when the component separation was maximum. The separation of the two components is estimated to be about 1.5 arcsec, position angles of about 194 and 201 deg are determined for the two years of the observing period, and the apparent magnitude of the faint companion is found to be approximately 10.

Feibelman, W. A.↗

Far-infrared emission from the bulges of early-type spirals: KAO observations of NGC 4736 (M94) and NGC 3627 (M66)

We present new high spatial resolution Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO) 50 and 100 micrometers measurements of the ringed Sab galaxy NGC 4736 and the Sb galaxy NGC 3627. We detect strong far-infrared emission (approximately 10(exp 9) solar luminosity) from the bulge areas of these galaxies, regions where there is little observed star formation. This far-infrared radiation is extended over the bulge with spatial distributions similar to that of the old stellar population. The ratio of far-infrared to H-alpha luminosity for these central sources is significantly larger than for the star-forming regions in these galaxies. This ratio is higher than can be accounted for by dust heating due to a population of young stars with a mass distribution similar to the Salpeter initial mass function assuming current estimates of extinction, unless the upper mass limit is unusually low (approximately B1 stars). On the other hand, the bolometric luminosity of the observed bulge stars is sufficient to account for the far-infrared radiation. Thus, older stars are likely to be important in heating dust in these bulges. The dust in the centers of these galaxies is quite warm, approximately 40 K (lambda(exp -1) emissivity), however, the interstellar radiation fields derived from the optical luminosities are consistent with these temperatures without invoking hidden central star formation or a dusty active galactic nucleus.

Smith, Beverly J.↗

Spatial Variation in Erosion Rates in Mars Equatorial Regions Inferred from Ejecta Retention of 1-3 Km Diameter Craters

The modification of impact craters has long been used to infer the geomorphic forcing on Mars [1], as well as estimate the spatial and temporal variability of this erosion and gradation [e.g., 2]. Here, we studied the population of small primary craters (1-3 km) to understand differences in ejecta retention across equatorial Mars. Specifically, we evaluated whether craters in our study population had observable ejecta deposits (defined on the basis of distinct tone or texture with respect to their surroundings).This is a proxy for the resurfacing rate because only relatively fresh craters retain their ejecta deposits. More broadly, this is part of a larger project we are undertaking [3] to examine crater morphometry and other characteristics from CTX-derived digital terrain models (DTMs), augmented by qualitative observations.

Fassett, C. I.↗

Laboratory Radar Measurements in Support of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Size Estimation Model

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies on ground-based radar measurements from both the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and the Goldstone Solar System Radar (Goldstone) to characterize mm to cm debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO). Radar measurements help characterize the size of orbital debris objects, particularly fragmentation debris. However, debris size is not directly measured by radar but inferred from the measured radar cross section (RCS) which depends on several parameters in addition to physical size including electrical conductivity and polarization. To interpret the observed RCS of orbital debris objects detected by radar measurements as physical sizes, NASA uses an empirical size estimation model (SEM) based on laboratory RCS measurements of breakup fragments generated during hypervelocity impact tests as well as some pieces of non-impact-generated “artificial” debris-like objects expected to be representative of the debris population. Since the development of the ODPO SEM, many new materials have been introduced to spacecraft construction. Consequently, ODPO plans to update the radar SEM based on planned laboratory RCS measurements of debris fragments from DebriSat, a ground-based hypervelocity impact experiment conducted in 2014 that consisted of a high-fidelity spacecraft model characteristic of a modern LEO spacecraft. Prior to measuring DebriSat fragments, a set of calibration targets with well-defined geometries and material compositions were measured at The Ohio State University’s ElectroScience Laboratory (OSU-ESL) compact radar range. These calibration measurements help to validate, and understand any limitations of, laboratory measurements of RCS. Calibration targets include idealizations of typical shape categories seen in DebriSat fragments such as nuggets, flat plates, and cylinders. As with DebriSat, calibration target materials were chosen to represent typical modern-day spacecraft components and include stainless steel, aluminum, printed circuit board (PCB) substrate, and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP). These materials also represent a wide range of electrical conductivities, which strongly influences measured RCS and inferred target size. The RCS calibration measurements were collected over a frequency sweep from 2 to 18 GHz and stepping through different azimuth angles from 0 to 360 degrees at an elevation of 0 degrees. A second set of calibration measurements is in work consisting of more complex shapes such as bent rods and plates as well as different mounting options including epoxy and a 3D printed holder. These further measurements along with our initial calibration set will inform selection of representative DebriSat fragments for laboratory RCS measurements that will contribute to the planned update to the ODPO radar SEM. An appropriate subset of both the radar calibration and DebriSat samples will also be measured in the ODPO Optical Measurements Center to cross-calibrate size estimates over these different wavelength regimes.

Radar↗

Energy Feedback from X-ray Binaries in the Early Universe

X-ray photons, because of their long mean-free paths, can easily escape the galactic environments where they are produced, and interact at long distances with the intergalactic medium, potentially having a significant contribution to the heating and reionization of the early universe. The two most important sources of X-ray photons in the universe are active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and X-ray binaries (XRBs). In this Letter we use results from detailed, large scale population synthesis simulations to study the energy feedback of XRBs, from the first galaxies (z (redshift) approximately equal to 20) until today.We estimate that X-ray emission from XRBs dominates over AGN at z (redshift) greater than or approximately equal to 6-8. The shape of the spectral energy distribution of the emission from XRBs shows little change with redshift, in contrast to its normalization which evolves by approximately 4 orders of magnitude, primarily due to the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate. However, the metallicity and the mean stellar age of a given XRB population affect significantly its X-ray output. Specifically, the X-ray luminosity from high-mass XRBs per unit of star-formation rate varies an order of magnitude going from solar metallicity to less than 10% solar, and the X-ray luminosity from low-mass XRBs per unit of stellar mass peaks at an age of approximately 300 Myr (million years) and then decreases gradually at later times, showing little variation for mean stellar ages 3 Gyr (Giga years, or billion years). Finally, we provide analytical and tabulated prescriptions for the energy output of XRBs, that can be directly incorporated in cosmological simulations.

galaxies↗

Using Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion to Map Global Surface Ozone Concentration and Associated Uncertainty

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations have been improved through data fusion of observations and atmospheric chemistry models. Our previous global ozone estimates for the Global Burden of Disease study corrected for bias uniformly across continents and then corrected near monitoring stations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework for data fusion. Here, we use the Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) framework to correct model bias over a much larger spatial range than BME can, accounting for the spatial inhomogeneity of bias and nonlinearity as a function of modeled ozone. RAMP bias correction is applied to a composite of 9 global chemistry-climate models, based on the nearest set of monitors. These estimates are then fused with observations using BME, which matches observations at measurement stations, with the influence of observations declining with distance in space and time. We create global ozone maps for each year from 1990 to 2017 at fine spatial resolution. RAMP is shown to create unrealistic discontinuities due to the spatial clustering of ozone monitors, which we overcome by applying a weighting for RAMP based on the number of monitors nearby. Incorporating RAMP before BME has little effect on model performance near stations, but strongly increases R 2 by 0.15 at locations farther from stations, shown through a checkerboard cross-validation. Corrections to estimates differ based on location in space and time, confirming heterogeneity. We quantify the likelihood of exceeding selected ozone levels, finding that parts of the Middle East, India, and China are most likely to exceed 55 parts per billion (ppb) in 2017. About 96% of the global population was exposed to ozone levels above the World Health Organization guideline of 60 µg m −3 (30 ppb) in 2017. Our annual fine-resolution ozone estimates may be useful for several applications including epidemiology and assessments of impacts on health, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Ozone↗