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NASA NTRS2008

United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop

What are the principal purposes, goals, and priorities of the U.S. civil space program? This question was the focus of the workshop on civil space policy held November 29-30, 2007, by the Space Studies Board (SSB) and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB) of the National Research Council (NRC). In addressing this question, invited speakers and panelists and the general discussion from this public workshop explored a series of topics, including the following: (1) Key changes and developments in the U.S. civil space program since the new national Vision for Space Exploration2 (the Vision) was articulated by the executive branch in 2004; (2) The fit of space exploration within a broader national and international context; (3) Affordability, public interest, and political will to sustain the civil space program; (4) Definitions, metrics, and decision criteria for the mix and balance of activities within the program portfolio; (5) Roles of government in Earth observations from space; and (6) Gaps in capabilities and infrastructure to support the program.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Tide Corrections for Coastal Altimetry: Status and Prospects

Knowledge of global oceanic tides has markedly advanced over the last two decades, in no small part because of the near-global measurements provided by satellite altimeters, and especially the long and precise Topex/Poseidon time series e.g. [2]. Satellite altimetry in turn places very severe demands on the accuracy of tidal models. The reason is clear: tides are by far the largest contributor to the variance of sea-surface elevation, so any study of non-tidal ocean signals requires removal of this dominant tidal component. Efforts toward improving models for altimetric tide corrections have understandably focused on deep-water, open-ocean regions. These efforts have produced models thought to be generally accurate to about 2 cm rms. Corresponding tide predictions in shelf and near-coastal regions, however, are far less accurate. This paper discusses the status of our current abilities to provide near-global tidal predictions in shelf and near-coastal waters, highlights some of the difficulties that must be overcome, and attempts to divine a path toward some degree of progress. There are, of course, many groups worldwide who model tides over fairly localized shallow-water regions, and such work is extremely valuable for any altimeter study limited to those regions, but this paper considers the more global models necessary for the general user. There have indeed been efforts to patch local and global models together, but such work is difficult to maintain over many updates and can often encounter problems of proprietary or political nature. Such a path, however, might yet prove the most fruitful, and there are now new plans afoot to try again. As is well known, tides in shallow waters tend to be large, possibly nonlinear, and high wavenumber. The short spatial scales mean that current mapping capabilities with (multiple) nadir-oriented altimeters often yield inadequate coverage. This necessitates added reliance on numerical hydrodynamic models and data assimilation, which in turn necessitates very accurate bathymetry with high spatial resolution. Nonlinearity means that many additional compound tides and overtides must be accounted for in our predictions, which increases the degree of modeling effort and increases the amounts of data required to disentangle closely aliased tides.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Going South: Lessons from an Historic Project Failure

NASA's successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America's gift to all Mankind. NASA's accomplishments continue to amaze the world. With the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Americans once again tasked NASA to carry out a project that is expected to provide inspiration and economic stimulus to the United States and to the world. In preparation NASA has thoroughly examined space program precedents. There is, however, another precedent which has not been examined in this context but whose scope and environment in many ways parallel the VSE. This project was initiated by a team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $151 billion (2008 values), had pushed the envelope of technology, brought economic growth, established their country as the world leader in engineering, and been broadly accepted as their country s gift to Mankind. The new project was again inspired by popular desire to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to Humanity. The new effort was predicted to require eight years and $156 billion (2008 values). However, after eight years and expenditures of 80% beyond the baseline, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. This paper applies current aerospace project metrics, such as earned value analysis, to review the strategic decisions in this historic failure and describe its ultimate collapse. Key mistakes are identified, and lessons are drawn which may prove useful in guiding the VSE.

Scott, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Going South: Analysis of an Historic Project Engineering Failure

NASA's successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America's gift to all Mankind. NASA's accomplishments continue to amaze the world. With the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Americans once again tasked NASA to carry out a project that is expected to provide inspiration and economic stimulus to the United States and to the world. In preparation NASA has thoroughly examined space program precedents. There is, however, another precedent which has not been examined in this context but whose scope and environment in many ways parallel the VSE. This project was initiated by a team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $173 billion (in 2008 dollars), had pushed the envelope of technology, brought economic growth, established their country as the world leader in engineering, and been broadly accepted as that country's gift to all Mankind. The new project was again inspired by popular desire to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to Humanity. This effort was predicted to require eight years and $156 billion (2008 dollars). However, after nine years and expenditures of 96% beyond the baseline, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. This paper applies current project management metrics, such as earned value analysis, to review the strategic decisions in this historic failure and describe its ultimate collapse. Key mistakes are identified, and lessons are drawn which may prove useful in guiding the VSE.

Scott, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

GIS Methodology for Planning Planetary-Rover Operations

A document describes a methodology for utilizing image data downlinked from cameras aboard a robotic ground vehicle (rover) on a remote planet for analyzing and planning operations of the vehicle and of any associated spacecraft. Traditionally, the cataloging and presentation of large numbers of downlinked planetary-exploration images have been done by use of two organizational methods: temporal organization and correlation between activity plans and images. In contrast, the present methodology involves spatial indexing of image data by use of the computational discipline of geographic information systems (GIS), which has been maturing in terrestrial applications for decades, but, until now, has not been widely used in support of exploration of remote planets. The use of GIS to catalog data products for analysis is intended to increase efficiency and effectiveness in planning rover operations, just as GIS has proven to be a source of powerful computational tools in such terrestrial endeavors as law enforcement, military strategic planning, surveying, political science, and epidemiology. The use of GIS also satisfies the need for a map-based user interface that is intuitive to rover-activity planners, many of whom are deeply familiar with maps and know how to use them effectively in field geology.

Powell, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal to Stabilize the Future LEO Debris Environment

Recent analyses of the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resources, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of the effectiveness of ADR must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of using ADR to preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-cost ratio. This paper describes a comprehensive sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term, orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of many key parameters. These parameters include (1) the starting epoch of ADR implementation, (2) various target selection criteria, (3) the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers, (4) the consequence of targeting specific inclination or altitude regimes, (5) the consequence of targeting specific classes of vehicles, and (6) the timescale of removal. Additional analyses on the importance of postmission disposal and how future launches might affect the requirements to stabilize the environment are also included.

Liou, J.C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aviation Fueling: A Cleaner, Greener Approach

Projected growth of aviation depends on fueling where specific needs must be met. Safety is paramount, and along with political, social, environmental and legacy transport systems requirements, alternate aviation fueling becomes an opportunity of enormous proportions. Biofuels sourced from halophytes, algae, cyanobacteria, and weeds using wastelands, waste water, and seawater have the capacity to be drop-in fuel replacements for petroleum fuels. Biojet fuels from such sources solves the aviation CO2 emissions issue and do not compete with food or freshwater needs. They are not detrimental to the social or environmental fabric and use the existing fuels infrastructure. Cost and sustainable supply remains the major impediments to alternate fuels. Halophytes are the near-term solution to biomass/biofuels capacity at reasonable costs; they simply involve more farming, at usual farming costs. Biofuels represent a win-win approach, proffering as they do at least the ones we are studying massive capacity, climate neutral-to-some sequestration, and ultimately, reasonable costs.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA'S Water Resources Element Within the Applied Sciences Program

The NASA Applied Sciences Program works within NASA Earth sciences to leverage investment of satellite and information systems to increase the benefits to society through the widest practical use of NASA research results. Such observations provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of numerous water resources management activities. The primary goal of the Earth Science Applied Science Program is to improve future and current operational systems by infusing them with scientific knowledge of the Earth system gained through space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities. Water resources is one of eight elements in the Applied Sciences Program and it addresses concerns and decision making related to water quantity and water quality. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands requires using existing resources more efficiently. The potential crises and conflicts arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. but also in many parts of the world. In addition to water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products to address these critical issues.

Toll, David↗
NASA NTRS2010

Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal for LEO Environment Remediation

Recent analyses on the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resource, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of its effectiveness must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the need and feasibility of using ADR to better preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-to-cost ratio. This paper describes a new sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of several key parameters, including target selection criteria/constraints and the starting epoch of ADR implementation. Additional analyses on potential ADR targets among the currently existing satellites and the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers are also included.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2009

Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nonetheless, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth im changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Era of International Space Station Utilization Begins: Research Strategy, International Collaboration, and Realized Potential

With the assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) nearing completion and the support of a full-time crew of six, a new era of utilization for research is beginning. For more than 15 years, the ISS international partnership has weathered financial, technical and political challenges proving that nations can work together to complete assembly of the largest space vehicle in history. And while the ISS partners can be proud of having completed one of the most ambitious engineering projects ever conceived, the challenge of successfully using the platform remains. During the ISS assembly phase, the potential benefits of space-based research and development were demonstrated; including the advancement of scientific knowledge based on experiments conducted in space, development and testing of new technologies, and derivation of Earth applications from new understanding. The configurability and human-tended capabilities of the ISS provide a unique platform. The international utilization strategy is based on research ranging from physical sciences, biology, medicine, psychology, to Earth observation, human exploration preparation and technology demonstration. The ability to complete follow-on investigations in a period of months allows researchers to make rapid advances based on new knowledge gained from ISS activities. During the utilization phase, the ISS partners are working together to track the objectives, accomplishments, and the applications of the new knowledge gained. This presentation will summarize the consolidated international results of these tracking activities and approaches. Areas of current research on ISS with strong international cooperation will be highlighted including cardiovascular studies, cell and plant biology studies, radiation, physics of matter, and advanced alloys. Scientific knowledge and new technologies derived from research on the ISS will be realized through improving quality of life on Earth and future spaceflight endeavours. Extension of the ISS through 2020 and beyond will insure that the benefits of research will be achievable for the International Partnership.

Thumm, Tracy↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic,as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period. With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nuomthc)cmm, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth is changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2010

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS2003

ISRU Reactant, Fuel Cell Based Power Plant for Robotic and Human Mobile Exploration Applications

Three basic power generation system concepts are generally considered for lander, rover, and Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) assistant applications for robotic and human Moon and Mars exploration missions. The most common power system considered is the solar array and battery system. While relatively simple and successful, solar array/battery systems have some serious limitations for mobile applications. For typical rover applications, these limitations include relatively low total energy storage capabilities, daylight only operating times (6 to 8 hours on Mars), relatively short operating lives depending on the operating environment, and rover/lander size and surface use constraints. Radioisotope power systems are being reconsidered for long-range science missions. Unfortunately, the high cost, political controversy, and launch difficulties that are associated with nuclear-based power systems suggests that the use of radioisotope powered landers, rovers, and EVA assistants will be limited. The third power system concept now being considered are fuel cell based systems. Fuel cell power systems overcome many of the performance and surface exploration limitations of solar array/battery power systems and the prohibitive cost and other difficulties associated with nuclear power systems for mobile applications. In an effort to better understand the capabilities and limitations of fuel cell power systems for Moon and Mars exploration applications, NASA is investigating the use of in-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) produced reactant, fuel cell based power plants to power robotic outpost rovers, science equipment, and future human spacecraft, surface-excursion rovers, and EVA assistant rovers. This paper will briefly compare the capabilities and limitations of fuel cell power systems relative to solar array/battery and nuclear systems, discuss the unique and enhanced missions that fuel cell power systems enable, and discuss the common technology and system attributes possible for robotic and human exploration to maximize scientific return and minimize cost and risk to both. Progress made to date at the Johnson Space Center on an ISRU producible reactant, Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell based power plant project to demonstrate the concept in conjunction with rover applications will be presented in detail.

Baird, Russell S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Active Debris Removal - A Grand Engineering Challenge for the Twenty-First Century

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the Kessler Syndrome ) in the near-Earth orbital debris environment. A 2006 NASA analysis of the instability of the debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude) shows that the environment has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase in the next 200 years, even without any future launches. The increase is driven by fragments generated via collisions among existing objects in LEO. In reality, the situation will be worse than this prediction because satellite launches will continue and unexpected major breakups may continue to occur. Mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community (such as the 25-year rule) will help, but will be insufficient to stop the population growth. To better preserve the near-Earth space environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) should be considered. The idea of active debris removal is not new. However, due to the monumental technical, resource, operational, legal, and political challenges associated with removing objects from orbit, it has not yet been widely considered feasible. The recent major breakup events and the environment modeling efforts have certainly reignited the interest in using active debris removal to remediate the environment. This trend is further highlighted by the National Space Policy of the United States of America, released by the White House in June 2010, where the President explicitly directs NASA and the Department of Defense to pursue research and development of technology and techniques, to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris, reduce hazards, and increase understanding of the current and future debris environment. A 2009 modeling study by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has shown that, in order to maintain the LEO debris population at a constant level for the next 200 years, an active debris removal of about five objects per year is needed. The targets identified for removal are those with the highest mass and collision probability products. Analyses from the study indicate that the majority of those objects are spent upper stages with masses ranging from 1 to more than 8 metric tons, residing in several altitude regions and concentrated in about 10 inclination bands. To remove five of those objects per year in a cost-effective manner truly represents a grand challenge in engineering and technology development. An end-to-end debris removal operation includes, in general terms, launches orbit rendezvous, precision tracking, stabilization (of the tumbling motion), capture, and deorbit of the targets. An ADR system deigned to remove a single object is not very cost-effective. Therefore, the repeatability of the removal system is almost a requirement. Some of the technologies involved in the ADR process do exist, but the difficulty is to make them more cost effective. Other technologies, such as ways to stabilize a massive tumbling upper stage and the capture mechanisms, are new and will require major innovative research and development efforts. This paper summarizes an updated assessment of the environment, including what needs to be done to control the population growth, and outlines the major engineering and technology challenges to carry out active debris removal to preserve the environment.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2002

Human Lunar Destiny: Past, Present, and Future

This paper offers conceptual strategy and rationale for returning astronauts to the moon. NASA's historic Apollo program enabled humans to make the first expeditionary voyages to the moon and to gather and return samples back to the earth for further study. To continue exploration of the moon within the next ten to fifteen years, one possible mission concept for returning astronauts using existing launch vehicle infrastructure is presented. During these early lunar missions, expeditionary trips are made to geographical destinations and permanent outposts are established at the lunar south pole. As these missions continue, mining operations begin in an effort to learn how to live off the land. Over time, a burgeoning economy based on mining and scientific activity emerges with the formation of more accommodating settlements and surface infrastructure assets. As lunar activity advances, surface infrastructure assets grow and become more complex, lunar settlements and outposts are established across the globe, travel to and from the moon becomes common place, and commerce between earth and the moon develops and flourishes. Colonization and development of the moon is completed with the construction of underground cities and the establishment of a full range of political, religious, educational, and recreational institutions with a diverse population from all nations of the world. Finally, rationale for diversifying concentrations of humanity throughout earth's neighborhood and the greater solar system is presented.

Fletcher, David↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Safety Conundrum Illustrated: Logic, Mathematics, and Science Are Not Enough

In an ideal world, conversations about whether a particular system is safe, or whether a particular method or tool enhances safety, would be emotion-free discussions concentrating on the level of safety required, available evidence, and coherent logical, mathematical, or scientific arguments based on that evidence. In the real world, discussions about safety are often not emotion-free. Political and economic arguments may play a bigger role than logical, mathematical, and scientific arguments, and psychological factors may be as important, or even more important, than purely technical factors. This paper illustrates the conundrum that can result from this clash of the ideal and the real by means of an imagined conversation among a collection of fictional characters representing various types of people who may be participating in a safety discussion.

Holloway, C. M.↗