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At least 361 records · Page 20

Calculation Method for Predicting AM0 Isc from High Altitude Aircraft Flight Data

High altitude aircraft have been used by by the space photovoltaic (PV) community to determine the Air Mass Zero (AM0) performance of solar cells for over fifty years. Relative to in-space measurement opportunities, these methods are generally cheaper and more readily available. The data obtained, however, must be corrected for residual atmospheric effects. This paper details the correction method currently being used for the calculation of the AM0 short-circuit current (Isc) for photovoltaic devices flown on the NASA ER-2 (Earth Resources-2) calibration platform. This method would also be applicable to any other high altitude method where Isc data is collected over a sufficiently large range of altitudes.

Myers, Matthew G.↗

Experimentation in Exploring Photovoltaic Inverter Dynamics Under Different Irradiance Levels Through a Data-Driven Approach

As conventional direct connections of synchronous generators are being phased out, inverter-based resources (IBRs) with grid support functions are increasingly being integrated into power systems. This transition requires the development of accurate dynamic models for IBRs to predict how power systems will adapt to varying levels of IBRs penetration, establish grid code requirements, and ensure compliance. Here, this study introduces an active probing signal-based data-driven modeling technique to accurately derive the dynamics model of a smart photovoltaic inverter operating in Volt-Watt and Freq-Watt modes, in compliance with the IEEE 1547–2018 standard. The paper focuses on investigating how the dynamics of the PV inverter model respond to fluctuations in solar irradiance, utilizing real-time digital simulator experimentation. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the amplitude of dynamics fluctuates with changes in irradiance across both operational modes and confirms the active power’s dependence on irradiance levels. Furthermore, the nature of inverter dynamics varies distinctly between the different modes of activation. Critically, our findings indicate that dynamic models require DC-gain adjustments to accommodate contrasting irradiance levels, highlighting a negative gradient linear relationship between the DC-gain of each model and the irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quasi-Static Time Series Fatigue Simulation for PV Inverter Semiconductors with Long-Term Solar Profile

Power system simulations with long-term data tend to have large time steps varying from one second to a few minutes. However, for PV inverter semiconductors, the minimum thermal stresses cycle is with line frequency. This requires the time step of the fatigue simulation to be much smaller than the line period. This small time step results in poor simulation speed, especially for long-term simulations. This paper proposes a fast fatigue simulation for inverter semiconductors using the quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation concept. The fatigue analysis typically focuses on the peak and valley values of a strain and neglect the transients from peaks to valleys. The proposed simulation utilizes this property of fatigue analysis and calculates the steady state of the semiconductor junction temperature only. The resulting time step of the fatigue simulation is 15 minutes, which is consistent with the solar dataset without losing accuracy.

fast simulation↗

pvOps: a Python package for empirical analysis of photovoltaic field data

The purpose of pvOps is to support empirical evaluations of data collected in the field related to the operations and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. pvOps presently contains modules that address the diversity of field data, including text-based maintenance logs, current-voltage (IV) curves, and timeseries of production information. The package functions leverage machine learning, visualization, and other techniques to enable cleaning, processing, and fusion of these datasets. These capabilities are intended to facilitate easier evaluation of field patterns and extraction of relevant insights to support reliability-related decision-making for PV sites. The open-source code, examples, and instructions for installing the package through PyPI can be accessed through the GitHub repository.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar PV Transmission Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from transmission. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from transmission infrastructure that an energy project may be developed. As of April 2022, no ordinances were discovered for any counties. Such ordinances are likely to arise as regulations continue to expand. Therefore, this dataset applies a 30-meter setback, sourced from trends in other infrastructure. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Correlation studies of Pioneer Venus imagery obtained from PV experiments with near IR imagery obtained from ground-based observations during Venus inferior conjunction

The purpose of this study is to attempt to find correlations between data taken by experiments aboard the Pioneer-Venus Orbiter (PVO) and those obtained from Earth-based near-infrared (NIR) measurements of Venus during periods near inferior conjunction. Since the NIR measurements have been found to provide data on the middle atmosphere cloud morphology and motion, it is assumed that any correlations will also indicate that the PVO experiments are also documenting cloud behavior. If such correlations are found, then a further task is to attempt to study the long term behavior of the cloud features implied by the correlations. Many PVO data have been obtained over an extended period extending from 1978 until the PV demise in 1992. There exists a long, somewhat ill-conditioned time series of data that may contain valuable information on the long time, as well as short term behavior of the clouds, and, derivatively from cloud motion, atmospheric dynamics and wave activity in the Venus atmosphere. For example, determination of the zonal velocities of any OCPP (Cloud Photopolarimeter) 0.935 micron features could then be used for comparisons with data from other sources to attempt to fix the altitude region in which such features existed. A further task of this study is to attempt to correlate any features found in simultaneously obtained data, for example, the OCPP 0.365 and 0.935 micron data. The existence of such correlations may imply that data was obtained in overlapping altitude regions of the atmosphere.

Ragent, Boris↗

Simulation of PV Variability as a Function of PV Generation and Plant Size

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems continues to show significant expansion; however, this growth has brought added attention to issues around the variability of the solar resource. Both spatial and temporal variability exist. Temporal scales can range from the sub-second to multiyear, whereas spatial scales can range from a few meters to tens of kilometers. There are multiple methods described in the literature to quantify PV variability at various spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on short-term temporal variability and uses similar approaches with the addition of PV plant size a parameter to quantify variability. The method employed here incorporates the normalization of clear-and cloudy-sky conditions and PV plant size to quantify nominal variability metrics. The distribution and fluctuations of these metrics provide relevant information that is useful for system operations. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to simulate PV variability as a function of PV generation and plant size. Hypothetical but realistic system information at 33 locations is used to model PV generation by feeding NSRDB solar irradiance data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM). Over the selected region, it is found that the aggregated ramp rates for the 1-minute data are associated with standard deviations ranging from 0.002–0.055 on a daily basis; however, hourly intervals induce higher aggregated ramp rates than the other timescales. Even though minute-to-minute variations are significant for the 1-minute time-scale, the standard deviation aggregated into a daily metric is smaller because of the cancellation of values.

irradiance↗

Weather impacts on solar PV operations summary of the current body of knowledge and implications for further investigation

There is growing concern that severe weather events are negatively affecting solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and pose ongoing and unrecognized risks. Clearly research is needed to quantify and characterize the risks so that properly calibrated improvements can be implemented. To begin this process, this report is a collection of information of severe weather impacts on solar PV available today taken from research, insurance data, and field inspections. While it is not comprehensive enough to draw conclusions, this information provides a baseline for action and indicates an urgent need to investigate further.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE and AID stand-alone photovoltaic activities

The NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) is managing stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) system activities sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). The DOE project includes village PV power demonstration projects in Gabon (four sites) and the Marshall Islands, PV-powered medical refrigerators in six countries, PV system microprocessor control development activities and PV-hybrid system assessments. The AID project includes a large village system in Tunisia, a water pumping/grain grinding project in Upper Volta, five medical clinics in four countries, PV-powered remote earth station application. These PV activities and summarizes significant findings to data are reviewed.

Bifano, W. J.↗

Solar PV Structure Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from structures based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a structure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 61 meters was applied in counties without specific structure setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data (Final Report)

This project addresses a fundamental flaw in solar PV research and solar project financing; the assumed rate of degradation for solar plants. The solar industry currently relies on an out-dated report that observed a 0.5% degradation rate based on a small sample size of systems (~100). While the research conducted at the time was new and innovative, the solar community has not updated this research and universally applies this 0.5% degradation assumption in financial models. Our project updates this assumption by analyzing observed degradation from the industry’s largest dataset of operating solar assets (>10,000 systems) and creating the first machine-learning model based on these observed results to quantify and identify features that drive degradation. There are two strategic goals for this award: reduce the cost of capital (enable solar to attract more capital) and improve the reliability of solar itself. These dual goals are achieved by leveraging an industry dataset to observe system degradation on a large scale, deploying advanced data analysis and machine learning methods to quantify and predict system reliability, and engaging with industry stakeholders to help them accurately price degradation in financial models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Processing Meteorological Data for the CAP-88 PC Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The Environmental Protection and Compliance-Compliance Programs (EPC-CP) group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) uses the Clean Air Act Assessment Package 1988 (CAP-88, Littleton 2020) PC model (Version 4.1) to estimate radiological doses for a set of areal sectors surrounding a release location, in order to satisfy the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) dose calculation requirement in 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. Among several types of data that must be prepared for CAP-88 input is a text file of meteorological data (“WIND” file), consisting of the joint frequency of wind direction, wind speed, and atmospheric stability categories. EPC-CP produces customized WIND files by running a CAP-88 utility program on a user generated text file of wind data in a different format, known as a STability ARray (STAR) file (Turner, 1964). At LANL, EPC-CP meteorologists prepare customized STAR files with data over desired time periods at selected meteorological towers. A custom program written in Precision Visuals -Workstation Analysis and Visualization Environment (PV-WAVE), a commercial Fortran-like language, is used to read LANL meteorological data and write a STAR file; the executable filename is “Star.out”. However, the outdated PV-WAVE utility program is being phased out by EPC-CP, due to the inefficient process to run it and an inability to modify the code. To preserve the ability to create customized meteorological data for CAP-88 in a way that will be easy to use and maintain, a new replacement utility program, written in the Python programming language, has been developed. The new, improved program reads a data file from any LANL meteorological tower, and at each desired observation time, determines the wind direction, wind speed, and stability categories defined in the CAP-88 documentation. The frequencies of all combinations of the three sets of categories are calculated and written to a file in the STAR format, which can later be converted to a WIND file for input into CAP-88.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2020. Highlights of this year’s update include: A record of nearly 9.6 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2020, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 38.7 GWAC across 43 states. 89% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2020 uses single-axis tracking. Median installed project costs declined to $\$$1.4/WAC (or $\$$1.1/WDC) in 2020. Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$$34/MWh in 2020 ($\$$28/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have stagnated more recently. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average just above $\$$20/MWh (levelized). In 2020, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) exceeded average wholesale prices in 12 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed (including 4 of the 7 independent system operators across the United States). Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata for more than 150 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. At the end of 2020, there were at least 460 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 160 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling Model (MIDAS-Solar)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power system operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power systems steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for electric grid planning and operation. This will be accomplished by developing temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation models that seamlessly simulate power systems operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). Both a multi-timescale grid model and an integrated PV model will be developed in this project to accurately study the impacts of PV variability and uncertainty on system reliability at multiple timescales. Using quasi-dynamic simulation methods and data-driven security assessment (DSA) criteria will allow the dynamic characteristics of PV to be fed forward into longer-timescale scheduling models for a complete understanding of the effect of short-term PV dynamics on bulk systems operations (e.g., reserve scheduling and deployment). Upon completion of the proposed model, this project will help operators accurately assess system reliability by deploying energy and reserve scheduling under critical contingency conditions and studying interactions among all types of essential reliability services provided by modern PV power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗