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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Systems Safety Evaluation Based on System Thinking

Every engineer knows well and always considers about 'The local optimization makes the entire worst', and therefore well balanced design is required. Even the total safety has been assured by the safety design based on defense in depth concept, operational problem would occur by the chain of the fallacy of the defense in depth, then safety culture degradation, and finely organizational accident eventually happened. Probabilistic approach is required to the problem. We should answer to the question 'Safety Goal: How safe is safe enough?' for public acceptance. To respond to the operational problem and safety goal question, PRA, Probabilistic Risk Analysis is required. Further, Risk Communication should include comparison and selection among technical systems by risk and benefit analysis. Therefore, systems safety consideration is important based on systems thinking with considering following characteristics: - Goal-oriented- Optimization, Alternative proposals; - Global perspective- Bird's Eye; - Hierarchy- Isomorphism; - Life Cycle: Plan-Design-Construction-Use-Disposal; - Learning and Evolution. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assembling Multiple Models Within the RAVEN Framework

RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment) is an INL-developed software tool that can be used to identify and increase the safety margin in complex systems. As a generic software framework, RAVEN is designed to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response as well as the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. RAVEN is currently able to construct multi-targets Reduced Order Models (ROMs), which are aimed to represent the response of a system (in a fixed configuration) for multiple Figures of Merits (FOMs) and time-dependent ROMs. These capabilities represent the initial steps for a larger implementation about the interaction of multiple models. In fact, in several cases, multiple models need to interface with each other since the initial conditions of one are dependent on the outcomes of another. To better understand the problem that here is solved, it is useful to consider a simple example: The following problem is considered: a weather forecast simulation code 'a' is used to compute the external (i.e. ambient) temperature in a certain location. A second model 'b' is inquired to compute the average temperature in a room having as boundary condition, among several others, the external ambient temperature. The response of the model 'b' depends on the outcome of the model 'a'. The reported example is only aimed to illustrate the reason why the creation of a framework to make interact different models is a key development for the advancement of RAVEN as a comprehensive calculation flow driver. Before reporting how the ensemble-models have been implemented, it is necessary to briefly describe the representative Model 'entities' that are available in RAVEN.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity Analysis of Successful Evacuee Proportion in Hypothetical Seismic Nuclear Emergency Situation

A magnitude 5.8 earthquake, which is the strongest earthquake ever detected in Korea, occurred in Gyeongju on 12 September, 2016. People were worried about not only the impact to their safety and quality of life as directly affected from the earthquake, but also the secondary impact from such a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident incurred by the earthquake. Public awareness is changing such that the risk of earthquakes is no longer a story of other countries. Even if the current situation in Korea is not regarded, it is important to assess the seismic hazard to an NPP and prepare for preventing the effects related with the earthquake impact. Developing a seismic evacuation model is necessary in a part of a level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) because it is one of the most affecting factors of public radiation exposure and health effects in an emergency phase. In a previous study, a sensitivity analysis of the evacuation speed in a hypothetical NPP accident by an earthquake has been carried out, and population doses resulting from various seismic evacuation scenarios associated with evacuation speed have been compared. In addition to the previous study, the proportion of evacuees who evacuate successfully with adequate speed has been considered and a sensitivity analysis has been performed in this study.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Operator Action Time Evaluation of Emergency Water Injection Strategy for Extreme SGTR Accidents

In terms of severe accidents caused by earthquakes or tsunamis that are beyond expectation, a special safety inspection for operating plants, following the Fukushima accident, has been conducted by the government of Korea to verify that nation's nuclear power plants have been adequately designed to respond to extreme accidents. The inspection results show that Korean nuclear power plants in operation have no imminent risk for an expected maximum potential earthquake or coastal flooding based on the up-to-date investigation. However, there is a need to implement long- and short-term safety improvements in order to secure the level of safety for natural beyond-design-basis events. One of the measures to increase the mitigation capability during extreme accidents is installing the injection flow paths to provide emergency cooling water of extemal sources using fire engines to the steam generators (SGs) or reactor cooling system (RCS). An emergency cooling water system consists of a fixed pipe connected from the RCS or SGs to the outside of the containment. A standby valve is installed on the pipe. Following the occurrence of an extreme accident, movable equipment (for example, a fire truck hose) can be connected to the pipe hole at the opening of the isolation valve. The emergency cooling water injection strategy was not taken into account for the steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident management strategy of the OPR-1000. Therefore, it is necessary to develop some guidelines or strategies to cope with an extreme SGTR scenarios using the newly installed injection flow paths and fire engines. As long as the fission products released from the core during severe accidents are kept inside the containment, there may be several ways to reduce the radionuclide release into the environment, for example, by using plant safety features. The containment bypass sequences, however, allow the fission products to be released into the environment or directly to the auxiliary building. The SGTR accidents, which are one of the containment bypass sequences, have shown during various probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) to be contributors to plant risk, mainly because of their potential for causing a release outside containment. This paper is intended to be an investigation of the characteristics of accident progressions and assessments for the mitigative effectiveness of the external cooling water injection strategies during extreme SGTR accidents in a typical OPR-1000 plant. Analyses were performed using a MAAP computer code version 5.03. The MAAP code is a system-level computer code capable of conducting integral analyses of potential severe accident progressions in nuclear power plants, whose main purpose is to support a level 2 PSA or severe accident management strategy developments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of the likelihood of post-closure criticality in a geological disposal facility - 14349

Radioactive Waste Management (RWM) is responsible for implementing geological disposal of the UK's higher activity radioactive wastes. These wastes include significant quantities of fissile nuclides and, therefore, demonstration of the criticality safety of the wastes under disposal conditions forms an important component of RWM's disposal system safety case. At the time of disposal, controls will ensure that all waste packages are sub-critical, and the containment provided by the engineered barrier system of a geological disposal facility (GDF) will ensure that criticality is prevented for some time after disposal. However, as waste packages begin to degrade, fissile and other materials may be mobilised, which could affect the potential for criticality. Therefore, the possibility for the evolution of conditions in a GDF to result in criticality requires assessment. RWM established the 'Likelihood of Criticality' research project to develop qualitative and quantitative arguments to demonstrate that criticality after closure of a GDF is unlikely. The project included consideration of the criticality safety of disposal concepts for intermediate and high level waste, spent fuel, separated plutonium and highly-enriched uranium in different generic geological settings. The results are underpinned by the construction of post-closure criticality scenarios that have been evaluated using high-level judgments about scenario credibility as well as modelling of evolving conditions in a GDF. In the latter case, a probabilistic modelling approach has been undertaken to address uncertainty in the calculation of concentrations and masses of fissile material that could occur at potential accumulation sites. The potential for criticality has been judged based on comparisons of the calculated fissile masses with minimum values required for criticality at different locations in the barrier system. This paper explains the novel approach taken to evaluating the likelihood of criticality in a GDF based on the probabilistic modelling of waste package evolution and plutonium and uranium migration. The role of this research in RWM's work to demonstrate the criticality safety of a GDF in the UK is presented in a companion paper, which also draws on the results of a parallel research project that demonstrates that, even if a criticality were to occur, then its consequences would be insignificant to GDF performance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

UK regulatory review of the double contingency principle in criticality safety - 14379

The UK's regulatory regime is based on Licence Conditions (LCs) attached to a Nuclear Site Licence (NSL) and is non-prescriptive in nature. The law requires licensees to reduce health and safety risks to workers and the public 'so far as is reasonability practicable' (SFAIRP), and this framework provides licensees with flexibility to achieve this. Guidance for inspectors on the assessment of nuclear safety cases has been published in Office for Nuclear Regulation's (ONR) Safety Assessment Principles (SAPs) and supporting Technical Assessment Guides (TAGs). These guidance documents have recently been reviewed in the light of the Fukushima accident. The opportunity has also been taken to reconsider the use of the Double Contingency Principle used in criticality safety cases, an approach commonly regarded as the preferred means of criticality control internationally and featured in the SAPs and TAGs. Licensees in the UK have adopted several approaches in nuclear criticality safety cases based upon a combination of deterministic and probabilistic safety cases using the Double Contingency Principle and Design Basis Analysis. ONR has developed a targeted intervention to sample a number of nuclear safety cases in order to test the adequacy of methodologies used to secure nuclear criticality safety. This paper reports the results of this intervention and considers the need to review the advice currently given by the UK nuclear regulator, including on use of the Double Contingency Principle. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Methodology for defining intermediate level waste package characteristics that ensure criticality safety in a geological disposal facility - 14599

Radioactive Waste Management (RWM) is responsible for implementing geological disposal of the UK's higher activity radioactive wastes. These wastes include fissile nuclides and, therefore, demonstration of the criticality safety of the wastes under disposal conditions forms an important component of RWM's disposal system safety case. The basis for ensuring criticality safety of intermediate level waste (ILW) packages is to specify controls on the fissile material content of individual packages through the application of deterministic criticality safety assessments (CSAs). The approach is defined and controlled through RWM's Disposability Assessment process, which aims to ensure that: criticality is prevented during waste package transport to a GDF; the risk of criticality is tolerable and as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) during GDF operations; and the likelihood and consequences of criticality arising from the evolution of waste packages after GDF closure are low. The most restrictive phase determines the package fissile material limit and, until now, in many cases the GDF post-closure phase has provided the most restrictive limit. Currently, the GDF post-closure limits are derived deterministically using highly stylised and conservative assumptions about fissile material accumulations occurring on very long timescales into the future. RWM, waste producers and regulators do not currently consider this approach to be yielding an appropriate balance of risk. Therefore, RWM is modifying the process for setting fissile material limits on ILW packages by making use of the outcomes of its recent research projects to establish the likelihood of post-closure criticality in a GDF and the consequences of hypothetical post-closure criticality events (presented in companion papers). This paper presents the revised methodology, which is based on the requirement that criticality in a GDF can be demonstrated to be of low and tolerable consequences with regard the performance of a GDF. A probabilistic 'low-likelihood package envelope' is proposed that establishes the packaging and disposal facility conditions under which post-closure criticality is considered to be of low likelihood and low consequence. The bounding conditions for establishing the extent of the package envelope have been evaluated through application of the methodologies and models developed in RWM's Likelihood of Criticality research project. It is expected that the vast majority of ILW packages would meet the package envelope requirements. The methodology also allows the use of other options, such as deterministic CSAs, for waste packages that fall outside the low-likelihood package envelope. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of storage required for preserving frequency security in wind‐integrated systems

Abstract The penetration of wind power generation into the power grid has been accelerated in recent times due to the aggressive emission targets set by governments and other regulatory authorities. Although wind power has the advantage of being environment‐friendly, wind as a resource is intermittent in nature. In addition, wind power contributes little inertia to the system as most wind turbines are connected to the grid via power electronic converters. These negative aspects of wind power pose serious challenges to the frequency security of power systems as penetration increases. In this work, an approach is proposed where an energy storage system (ESS) is used to mitigate frequency security issues of wind‐integrated systems. ESSs are well equipped to supply virtual inertia to the grid due to their fast‐acting nature, thus replenishing some of the energy storage capability of displaced inertial generation. In this work, a probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the amount of inertia required by a system to ensure frequency security. Reduction in total system inertia due to the displacement of conventional synchronous generation by wind power generation is considered in this approach, while also taking into account the loss of inertia due to forced outages of conventional units. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for implementing the probabilistic estimation of system inertia. An ESS is then sized appropriately, using the system swing equation, to compensate for the lost inertia. The uncertainty associated with wind energy is modeled into the framework using an autoregressive moving average technique. Effects of increasing the system peak load and changing the wind profile on the expected system inertia are studied to illustrate various factors that might affect system frequency security. The proposed method is validated using the IEEE 39‐bus test system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Radar Detectability Studies of Slow and Small Zodiacal Dust Cloud Particles. III. The Role of Sodium and the Head Echo Size on the Probability of Detection

We present a path forward on a long-standing issue concerning the flux of small and slow meteoroids, which are believed to be the dominant portion of the incoming meteoric mass flux into the Earth’s atmosphere. Such a flux, which is predicted by dynamical dust models of the Zodiacal Cloud, is not evident in ground-based radar observations. For decades this was attributed to the fact that the radars used for meteor observations lack the sensitivity to detect this population, due to the small amount of ionization produced by slow-velocity meteors. Such a hypothesis has been challenged by the introduction of meteor head echo (HE) observations with High Power and Large Aperture radars, in particular the Arecibo 430 MHz radar. Janches et al. developed a probabilistic approach to estimate the detectability of meteors by these radars and initially showed that, with the current knowledge of ablation and ionization, such particles should dominate the detected rates by one to two orders of magnitude compared to the actual observations. In this paper, we include results in our model from recently published laboratory measurements, which showed that (1) the ablation of Na is less intense covering a wider altitude range; and (2) the ionization probability, β{sub ip}, for Na atoms in the air is up to two orders of magnitude smaller for low speeds than originally believed. By applying these results and using a somewhat smaller size of the HE radar target we offer a solution that reconciles these observations with model predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Data Association for Orbital-Element Estimation Using Multistage Expectation–Maximization

Tracking space objects is important for managing space traffic and predicting collisions, but is difficult in part due to data association and orbit model uncertainty. Expectation–maximization (EM) is a commonly used tracking method that has not been widely considered for tracking space objects. The technique consists of iteratively computing data association probabilities with a set of current element estimates, and updating estimates of the elements by solving a nonlinear weighted least-squares regression problem where the weights are the data association probabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of EM for probabilistic data association and orbital-element estimation by applying the technique to simulated data from two angles-only tracking scenarios. In both scenarios, EM provides correct data associations and accurate maximum likelihood estimates of orbital elements. One scenario considers tracking a single object in clutter and quantifies the improvement of the orbital-element estimates and data associations as the detection probability increases. However, standard application of EM requires knowing the number of objects or may fail when a large number of objects are present. To address these issues, this paper employs a multistage version of EM that is applicable when there are a large and possibly unknown number of objects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope using Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1976

Probabilistic and deterministic aspects of linear estimation in geodesy

Recent advances in observational techniques related to geodetic work (VLBI, laser ranging) make it imperative that more consideration should be given to modeling problems. Uncertainties in the effect of atmospheric refraction, polar motion and precession-nutation parameters, cannot be dispensed with in the context of centimeter level geodesy. Even physical processes that have generally been previously altogether neglected (station motions) must now be taken into consideration. The problem of modeling functions of time or space, or at least their values at observation points (epochs) is explored. When the nature of the function to be modeled is unknown. The need to include a limited number of terms and to a priori decide upon a specific form may result in a representation which fails to sufficiently approximate the unknown function. An alternative approach of increasing application is the modeling of unknown functions as stochastic processes.

Dermanis, A.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation of Nuclear Structures in Terms of Reduced Risk and Cost

Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been implemented in many civil structures, including buildings, bridges, liquid natural gas tanks, and off shore oil platforms, both in the United States and other countries, to mitigate the damaging effects of earthquakes. Seismic isolation has also been used in nuclear structures in France and South Africa, but not yet in the United States: neither in the Department of Energy facilities nor in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is primarily due to a lack of guidelines, codes and standards for the analysis, design and construction specific to seismically isolated nuclear structures. However, seismic isolation of nuclear structures has seen increased research interest in the recent years and the recently published national consensus standard, America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4-16 'Seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures', now incorporates language and commentary (Chapter 12) for seismically isolating surface or near-surface-mounted nuclear facilities, including NPPs. Seismic isolation substantially reduces horizontal seismic loads (demands) on structures, systems, and components. Reduction in demand results in four potential benefits: (1) economic: reduction in capital cost, (2) increased safety: reduction in the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance, (3) insurance: protection against increases in the known seismic hazard after construction by minimizing the effort to re-qualify and re-certify structures, systems and components, and (4) recertification: the opportunity to certify an existing NPP design for a region of higher seismic hazard. Item (2) above, an increase in safety (reduction of seismic risk), was explored in Huang et al., wherein it was demonstrated that the implementation of seismic isolation reduced seismic risk in nuclear power plant structures. Studies that assess item (1) have not been performed although the use of isolation may lead to large reductions in the capital cost of safety-related nuclear facilities. Funding provided by Nuclear Safety Research and Development in the Department of Energy (DOE) allowed the authors to develop a framework for assessing the economic benefits and reductions in seismic risk afforded by the use of seismic (base) isolation. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimation of overnight capital costs (OCC's) of a sample generic DOE nuclear facility (GDNF). The project is documented in detail in Bolisetti et al. and Yu et al., and key results are presented here. The GDNF considered in this study is based on a facility constructed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The GDNF is a two-story reinforced concrete building with an embedded basemat and is founded on soft rock at the boundary of Site Class B and Site Class C (B/C boundary) as characterized by ASCE/SEI Standard 7. The GDNF is assumed to handle radiological materials, and its structure, systems and components (SSC's) are designed to effectively confine these materials in the event of an internal failure. The GDNF is populated with components that are generic to safety-related nuclear structures. A single system, which is intended to confine a loss of materials-at-risk (MAR) to the interior of the structure, is chosen for this study. Accordingly, a hypothetical event tree and fault tree are assumed for risk assessment. The isolation system for the GDNF is designed per Chapter 12 of ASCE/SEI 4-16 but is not optimized. The isolation system consists of 38 lead rubber bearings installed in one horizontal plane below the basemat. Details of the GDNF, including the SSC's, event tree and fault tree, and isolation system, are presented in the project report and Yu et al.. This study includes seismic risk assessment and cost estimation for four cases: (1) the GDNF is located at a site of low to moderate seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional (non-isolated) foundation; (2) the GDNF is located at the same site as case 1, but is seismically isolated; (3) the GDNF is located at a site of high seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional foundation; and (4) the GDNF is located at the same site of high seismic hazard as case 3, but is seismically isolated. In this study, the DOE site at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is chosen as the low to moderate seismic hazard site for cases 1 and 2, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is chosen as the high seismic hazard site for cases 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have performed a proof-of-concept experiment of flow sensing with the transducer in liquid sodium at 340°C in impinging liquid jet geometry. The transducer remained in liquid sodium for 70 days. After removal, no structural damage was observed, and the expected transducer response was verified in a water test. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance. Since a yellowish residue was observed on the transducer surface after 70 days of immersion in liquid sodium, we have investigated possible evidence of corrosion. Chromium depletion is a typical indicator of the corrosion process in stainless steel. Scraping off a residue from the transducer and performing scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive analysis (EDS) did not find any chromium in the residue. Approximately 60% of the residue consisted of copper, which can be attributed to contamination of sodium due to powder residue from machining of copper and brass components of the transducer.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗