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DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Long Island’s Extreme Precipitation and Its Relationship to Tropical Cyclones

Since extreme precipitation impacts society on small scales (i.e., a few kilometers and smaller, it is worthwhile to explore extreme precipitation trends in localized regions, such as Long Island (LI), New York. Its coastal location makes it vulnerable to various extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (TCs). This work aimed to quantify the extreme precipitation events on LI that are caused by TCs, as well as the percentage of TCs passing close to LI that cause extreme precipitation events. Both gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation datasets of varying resolutions (DAYMET, IMERG, and CPC) were used to understand the impact of dataset selection. Results are shown for the common time period of 2001–2020, as well as the full time periods of each dataset. DAYMET shows the highest percentage of extreme precipitation events linked to TCs for 2001–2020 (a maximum of 7.2%) and the highest number of TCs that caused extreme precipitation events (36.5%), with IMERG showing similar results. For the full and common time periods, the highest percentage of extreme precipitation events caused by TCs was found in eastern LI. TC-related extreme precipitation averaged over LI varied year to year, and amounts were dependent on the resolution of the observational dataset, but most datasets showed an increasing trend in the last 19 years that is larger than the trend in mean precipitation. Current infrastructure in the region is likely inadequately prepared for future impacts from TC-related extreme precipitation events in such a population-dense region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Chapter 6: Fundamental Satellite Precipitation Data Records

The observation and measurement of precipitation across a range of temporal and spatial scales is of great importance for many user requirements and applications. Precipitation is a key component of the global energy and water cycle moving water, and its’ associated energy, through the Earth system at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. At the societal level, precipitation provides fresh water and moderates our climate, but can also be destructive through storms, droughts and spreading diseases. Monitoring and measuring the distribution and quantities of precipitation, across the Earth’s surface is therefore crucial to physical and social applications, together with changes in precipitation over time. While conventional surface instruments provide a reasonably long record, these tend to be confined to well populated land surface areas: most ocean regions and sparsely populated regions have few measurements. Satellite-based precipitation products can provide global measurements, although the timespan of such products is limited and the data record is comprised of different instruments that operate over different periods of record. The challenge of any climate record is to provide a consistent product over the full period of record. Many satellite precipitation products incorporate ancillary data, such as surface gauge data or model data, which may limit their utility in the validation or verification of other climate data records. This chapter provides a review of the importance of precipitation to the climate system, the basis of satellite precipitation retrievals, climate data records of satellite data for precipitation retrievals and the development of fundamental precipitation data records for climate applications.

Climate data record↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products from TRMM to GPM

The global precipitation measurement mission (GPM) has been in operation for seven years and continues to provide a vast quantity of global precipitation data at finer temporospatial resolutions with improved accuracy and coverage. GPM’s signature algorithm, the integrated multisatellite retrievals for GPM (IMERG) is a next-generation of precipitation product expected for wide variety of research and operational applications. This study evaluates the latest version (V06B) of IMERG and its predecessor, the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) multisatellite precipitation (TMPA) 3B42 (V7) using ground-based and gauge-corrected multiradar multisensor system (MRMS) precipitation products over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The spatial distributions of all products are analyzed. The error characteristics are further examined for 3B42 and IMERG in winter and summer by an error decomposition approach, which partitions total bias into hit bias, biases due to missed precipitation and false precipitation. The volumetric and categorical statistical metrics are used to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the two satellite-based products. All products show a similar precipitation climatology with some regional differences. The two satellite-based products perform better in the eastern CONUS than in the mountainous Western CONUS. The evaluation demonstrates the clear improvement in IMERG precipitation product in comparison with its predecessor 3B42, especially in reducing missed precipitation in winter and summer, and hit bias in winter, resulting in better performance in capturing lighter and heavier precipitation.

MRMS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of GPROF V05 Precipitation Retrievals under Different Cloud Regimes

Precipitation retrievals from passive microwave satellite observations form the basis of many widely used precipitation products, but the performance of the retrievals depends on numerous factors such as surface type and precipitation variability. Previous evaluation efforts have identified bias dependence on precipitation regime, which may reflect the influence on retrievals of recurring factors. In this study, the concept of a regime-based evaluation of precipitation from the Goddard profiling (GPROF) algorithm is extended to cloud regimes. Specifically, GPROF V05 precipitation retrievals under four different cloud regimes are evaluated against ground radars over the United States. GPROF is generally able to accurately retrieve the precipitation associated with both organized convection and less organized storms, which collectively produce a substantial fraction of global precipitation. However, precipitation from stratocumulus systems is underestimated over land and overestimated over water. Similarly, precipitation associated with trade cumulus environments is underestimated over land, while biases over water depend on the sensor’s channel configuration. By extending the evaluation to more sensors and suppressed environments, these results complement insights previously obtained from precipitation regimes, thus demonstrating the potential of cloud regimes in categorizing the global atmosphere into discrete systems.

precipitation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerosols Delay the Emergence of Greenhouse Gas Forcing on 21st Century South Asian Monsoon Precipitation By Several Decades

Anthropogenic aerosols (AERs) affect several aspects of the climate system across the world through radiative forcing and microphysical effects. These influences are particularly strong across South Asia, where AER concentrations are highest and further projected to increase in coming decades. Using large ensemble experiments from Earth system model, we examine how AERs shape the evolution of seasonal precipitation over South Asia inlate 20th century and 21st century climate in the presence of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations. We find that AERs strongly reduce monsoon precipitation, moderately reduce post-monsoon precipitation, and negligibly influence pre-monsoon precipitation. Consequently, AERs delay the emergence of GHG-forced increases in precipitation by ~5 decades in the monsoon season and ~1 decade in the post-monsoon season. However, GHGs are projected to outpace the influence of AERs by mid 21st century, causing a steep intensification of monsoon and post-monsoon precipitation. We further show that local AERs have the strongest influence on precipitation in the monsoon and post monsoon seasons in the near-future (2020-2049). However, the contribution from remote AERs changes is also important in shaping the monsoon precipitation changes over northwestern South Asia. Further, the influence of local AERs monsoon precipitation remains stationary throughout the 21st century, indicating the insensitivity of relationship between local AOD and precipitation to the projected warming. A better understanding of aerosol-climate interactions and associated precipitation responses in is pertinent for policymakers to address the critical aspect of regional consequences over South Asia induced by externally forced climate change.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2015

Satellite estimates of precipitation susceptibility in low-level marine stratiform clouds

Quantifying the sensitivity of warm rain to aerosols is important for constraining climate model estimates of aerosol indirect effects. In this study, the precipitation sensitivity to cloud droplet number concentration (N d ) in satellite retrievals is quantified by applying the precipitation susceptibility metric to a combined CloudSat/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data set of stratus and stratocumulus clouds that cover the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. We note that consistent with previous observational studies of marine stratocumulus, precipitation susceptibility decreases with increasing liquid water path (LWP), and the susceptibility of the mean precipitation rate R is nearly equal to the sum of the susceptibilities of precipitation intensity and of probability of precipitation. Consistent with previous modeling studies, the satellite retrievals reveal that precipitation susceptibility varies not only with LWP but also with N d . Puzzlingly, negative values of precipitation susceptibility are found at low LWP and high N d . There is marked regional variation in precipitation susceptibility values that cannot simply be explained by regional variations in LWP and N d . This suggests other controls on precipitation apart from LWP and N d and that precipitation susceptibility will need to be quantified and understood at the regional scale when relating to its role in controlling possible aerosol-induced cloud lifetime effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Assessing precipitation, evapotranspiration, and NDVI as controls of U.S. Great Plains plant production

Productivity throughout the North American Great Plains grasslands is generally considered to be water limited, with the strength of this limitation increasing as precipitation decreases. We hypothesize that cumulative actual evapotranspiration water loss (AET) from April to July is the precipitation-related variable most correlated to aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in the U.S. Great Plains (GP). We tested this by evaluating the relationship of ANPP to AET, precipitation, and plant transpiration (Tr). We used multi-year ANPP data from five sites ranging from semiarid grasslands in Colorado and Wyoming to mesic grasslands in Nebraska and Kansas, mean annual NRCS ANPP, and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Results from the five sites showed that cumulative April-to-July AET, precipitation, and Tr were well correlated (R 2 : 0.54–0.70) to annual changes in ANPP for all but the wettest site. AET and Tr were better correlated to annual changes in ANPP compared to precipitation for the drier sites, and precipitation in August and September had little impact on productivity in drier sites. April-to-July cumulative precipitation was best correlated (R 2 = 0.63) with interannual variability in ANPP in the most mesic site, while AET and Tr were poorly correlated with ANPP at this site. Cumulative growing season (May-to-September) NDVI (iNDVI) was strongly correlated with annual ANPP at the five sites (R 2 = 0.90). Using iNDVI as a surrogate for ANPP, we found that county-level cumulative April–July AET was more strongly correlated to ANPP than precipitation for more than 80% of the GP counties, with precipitation tending to perform better in the eastern more mesic portion of the GP. Including the ratio of AET to potential evapotranspiration (PET) improved the correlation of AET to both iNDVI and mean county-level NRCS ANPP. Accounting for how different precipitation-related variables control ANPP (AET in drier portion, precipitation in wetter portion) provides opportunity to develop spatially explicit forecasting of ANPP across the GP for enhancing decision-making by land managers and use of grassland ANPP for biofuels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

The east–west division of changing precipitation in Nepal

Abstract Changes to precipitation patterns and extremes over the Nepalese Himalayas were examined using a high‐resolution, station‐based daily dataset, Asian Precipitation‐Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (0.05° × 0.05° APHRODITE) from 1951 to 2007. The annual statistics of extreme precipitation across Nepal show a significant increase since the end of the 20th century. However, seasonal mean precipitation shows a remarkable decrease in western Nepal, particularly since 1980, forming an east–west division in the precipitation change. This decreasing trend of precipitation led to a reduction to the dry‐season stream flow of Karnali River, the major river in western Nepal. At the same time, the increasing extreme precipitation produced greater threat of flash flood in Nepal. This east–west division of the precipitation trend agrees with the second leading mode of the mean precipitation variability, which was traced to the interannual variability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature that showed a slowdown of warming. Similar to the APHRODITE trends, precipitation simulated by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models depicted the decreasing historical trend in western Nepal, but future projections reverse that trend towards an all‐Nepal increase. CMIP5 future climate projections depict continual warming in the Indian Ocean, potentially reversing the historical decreasing trends of precipitation in western Nepal.

Pokharel, Binod↗

DOE OSTI2012

Influence of the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation on the monsoon precipitation in Nepal

Nepal’s precipitation is uncorrelated with the all-India monsoon precipitation. However, the quasi-decadal variability of precipitation is significant in the Nepal Himalayas but its mechanism has received little attention. Using a set of century-long reanalysis and observations of precipitation, spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses were conducted to determine the role of the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (QDO) in Nepal’s precipitation regime. The dynamical and moisture processes involved in the Pacific QDO of the monsoon precipitation in Nepal were also examined. The monsoon precipitation in Nepal is enhanced when southeasterly moisture fluxes, originated from the Bay of Bengal, divert towards the north and subsequently interact with the southern Himalayan foothills. The redirected moisture fluxes are modulated through the Pacific QDO and are embedded in a propagating global wave 1–2 circulation pattern. However, the modulation exhibits a phase shift of 2 years between the precipitation anomalies in Nepal and the extreme phases of the Pacific QDO. A phase shift of this nature ascribes to the low correlation skill between the Nepal precipitation and traditional monsoon indices, such as those of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the all-India precipitation. The lagged relationship between the monsoon precipitation and the Pacific QDO is unique to Nepal, the inclusion of which should improve the predictive ability for the Nepal monsoon.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2018

Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach

Highlights: • Developed a wavelet transform entropy approach to study precipitation. • Multiscale entropy values were the basis for precipitation regionalization. • Various entropy-based bands were introduced to segregate the CWME values for each cluster. • The relationship between changes of CWME and mean monthly precipitation were investigated. • Central rain gauges of each cluster were used for further analysis. Understanding precipitation on a regional basis is an important component of water resources planning and management. The present study outlines a methodology based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multiscale entropy (CWME), combined with self-organizing map (SOM) and k-means clustering techniques, to measure and analyze the complexity of precipitation. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 at 31 rain gauges across Iran were preprocessed by CWT. The multi-resolution CWT approach segregated the major features of the original precipitation series by unfolding the structure of the time series which was often ambiguous. The entropy concept was then applied to components obtained from CWT to measure dispersion, uncertainty, disorder, and diversification of subcomponents. Based on different validity indices, k-means clustering captured homogenous areas more accurately, and additional analysis was performed based on the outcome of this approach. The 31 rain gauges in this study were clustered into 6 groups, each one having a unique CWME pattern across different time scales. The results of clustering showed that hydrologic similarity (multiscale variation of precipitation) was not based on geographic contiguity. According to the pattern of entropy across the scales, each cluster was assigned an entropy signature that provided an estimation of the entropy pattern of precipitation data in each cluster. Based on the pattern of mean CWME for each cluster, a characteristic signature was assigned, which provided an estimation of the CWME of a cluster across scales of 1–2, 3–8, and 9–13 months relative to other stations. The validity of the homogeneous clusters demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach to regionalize precipitation. Further analysis based on wavelet coherence (WTC) was performed by selecting central rain gauges in each cluster and analyzing against temperature, wind, Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indeces. The results revealed that all climatic features except NAO influenced precipitation in Iran during the 1960–2010 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global-mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global-mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5°, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Ion Precipitation due to Field Line Curvature (FLC) and EMIC Wave Scattering and Their Subsequent Impact on Ionospheric Electrodynamics

Both field line curvature (FLC) and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering are believed to be associated with energetic ion precipitation, but their relative contributions to ionospheric ion precipitation and subsequent effects are still unclear. Here, in this study, by using a kinetic ring current model, we investigate their impact on the ionosphere from two aspects: the global distribution of ion precipitation and resulting ionospheric conductance. Our results show that the intensity and coverage of ion precipitation due to EMIC waves are larger than that due to FLC scattering, while the latter mostly contributes to ion precipitation in outer regions (L > 4–5). We then estimate the conductance with empirical models using the simulated ion precipitation energy flux. When the EMIC wave associated proton precipitation is included, the conductance is significantly enhanced in the dusk-to-midnight sector and has a wide magnetic latitude (MLAT) range from around 52° to 62°, considerably altering the electric potential in the dusk sector, which further influences particle dynamics in the magnetosphere. On the contrary, the proton precipitation caused by FLC scattering only occurs at higher latitudes above MLAT = 60° and the corresponding conductance is slightly enhanced at midnight, with negligible influence on the convective electric potential. Although electron precipitation-associated conductance is predominant globally, the results show that proton precipitation can also play an important role in ionospheric electrodynamics, especially when EMIC wave-associated precipitating proton energy flux exceeds that of electrons in the dusk sector, a region where many subauroral coupling processes occur.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Influence of Urban Form on the Spatial Pattern of Precipitation

Urban areas are known to modify the spatial pattern of precipitation climatology. Existing observational evidence suggests that precipitation can be enhanced downwind of a city. Among the proposed mechanisms, the thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes in the urban lower atmosphere interact with the meteorological conditions and can play a key role in determining the resulting precipitation patterns. In addition, these processes are influenced by urban form, such as the impervious surface extent. This study aims to unravel how different urban forms impact the spatial patterns of precipitation climatology under different meteorological conditions. We use the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimation data products and analyze the hourly precipitation maps for 27 selected cities across the continental United States from the years 2015–2021 summer months. Results show that about 80% of the studied cities exhibit a statistically significant downwind enhancement of precipitation. Additionally, we find that the precipitation pattern tends to be more spatially clustered in intensity under higher wind speed; the location of radial precipitation maxima is located closer to the city center under low background winds but shifts downwind under high wind conditions. The magnitude of downwind precipitation enhancement is highly dependent on wind directions and is positively correlated with the city size for the south, southwest, and west directions. This study presents observational evidence through a cross-city analysis that the urban precipitation pattern can be influenced by the urban modification of atmospheric processes, providing insight into the mechanistic link between future urban land-use change and hydroclimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fluid inertia controls mineral precipitation and clogging in pore to network-scale flows

Mineral precipitation caused by fluid mixing presents complex control and predictability challenges in a variety of natural and engineering processes, including carbon mineralization, geothermal energy, and microfluidics. Precipitation dynamics, particularly under the influence of fluid flow, remain poorly understood. Combining microfluidic experiments and three-dimensional reactive transport simulations, we demonstrate that fluid inertia controls mineral precipitation and clogging at flow intersections, even in laminar flows. We observe distinct precipitation regimes as a function of Reynolds number (Re). At low Reynolds numbers (Re < 10), precipitates form a thin, dense layer along the mixing interface, which shuts precipitation off, while at high Reynolds numbers (Re > 50), strong three-dimensional flows significantly enhance precipitation over the entire intersection, resulting in rapid clogging. When injection rates from two inlets are uneven, flow symmetry-breaking leads to unexpected flow bifurcation phenomena, which result in enhanced concurrent precipitation in both downstream channels. Finally, we extend our findings to rough channel networks and demonstrate that the identified inertial effects on precipitation at the intersection scale are also present and even more dramatic at the network scale. This study sheds light on the fundamental mechanisms underlying mixing-induced mineral precipitation and provides a framework for designing and optimizing processes involving mineral precipitation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2017

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Superparameterized CAM in Response to Warmer SSTs

Subdaily temperature and precipitation extremes in response to warmer SSTs are investigated on a global scale using the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded in each CAM grid column to simulate convection explicitly. Two 10-yr simulations have been performed using present climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and perturbed SST climatology derived from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with the conventional CAM, SP-CAM simulates colder temperatures and more realistic intensity distribution of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. The temperature and precipitation extremes have been defined by the 99th percentile of the 3-hourly data. For temperature, the changes in the warm and cold extremes are generally consistent between CAM and SP-CAM, with larger changes in warm extremes at low latitudes and larger changes in cold extremes at mid-to-high latitudes. For precipitation, CAM predicts a uniform increase of frequency of precipitation extremes regardless of the rain rate, while SP-CAM predicts a monotonic increase of frequency with increasing rain rate and larger change of intensity for heavier precipitation. The changes in 3-hourly and daily temperature extremes are found to be similar; however, the 3-hourly precipitation extremes have a significantly larger change than daily extremes. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is found to be a relatively good predictor of zonally averaged changes in precipitation extremes over midlatitudes but not as good over the tropics and subtropics. The changes in precipitable water and large-scale vertical velocity are equally important to explain the changes in precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Heavy Precipitation throughout the Entire Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated precipitation can have devastating impacts on the areas affected, with outcomes ranging from mudslides to inland flash flooding. Previous studies have used a fixed radius around the TC to isolate storm-related precipitation. One previous study instead used a dynamic radius of 8 m s −1 winds, but the wind field of the TC can deteriorate or shift quickly after landfall or the onset of extratropical transition (ET). This study uses a dynamical radius derived from the 500-hPa geopotential height in and around the TC to define TC- and post-tropical cyclone (PTC)-related heavy precipitation, allowing for the analysis of precipitation with tropical origins after the official demise of the original TC. Climatologies are constructed, indicating a maximum in TC- and PTC-related heavy precipitation in the west North Pacific and a secondary maximum in the east North Pacific. PTC-related heavy precipitation accounts for as much as 40% of the annual heavy precipitation in the northwest portion of the west North Pacific basin and 3.13% of heavy precipitation globally. We observe that the major hurricane stage contributes on average 2.6% of the global TC- and PTC-related precipitation, while the less intense but more common tropical storm stages of the TC life cycle contribute 85.7% of this observed precipitation. This analysis framework can be further extended to assess model biases and climate projections of TC and PTC precipitation.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States

Abstract Downscaled precipitation projections were created using the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model over the western United States to increase the physical realism in orographic precipitation changes. End-of-century simulations from eight models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were downscaled with ICAR and compared to the widely utilized statistically downscaled dataset, localized constructed analogs (LOCAs), to understand where and why projections of cool-season (September–May) precipitation differed. ICAR and LOCA precipitation projections were similar, but their sign differed in hydrologically relevant regions likely due to ICAR’s simulation of microphysics and mesoscale dynamics with high-resolution topography (6 km). In the Pacific Northwest, cool-season precipitation projections from ICAR showed an increase on the windward side of the Cascades and no significant change within the lee. This difference between the windward and leeward side was attributed to reduced zonal wind speeds, allowing more time for microphysical processes within ICAR. This contrast is enhanced by rain’s faster fall speed compared to snow, limiting transport into the lee. Meanwhile, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation across the Cascades. In the Upper Colorado River basin, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation in high elevation regions (>3000 m), but ICAR projected no significant change or a decrease in precipitation. High elevation differences were most evident in the spring and fall and were also attributed to a snow-to-rain transition and dynamical processes that impacted orographic enhancement within ICAR. Idealized, controlled studies are needed to better isolate individual processes, but these results underscore the importance of including microphysics and mesoscale dynamics within regional-scale precipitation projections. Significance Statement A set of global climate model simulations was downscaled using an atmospheric model that contains key physical equations, referred to as Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR). ICAR was used to examine projected changes in end-of-century cool-season precipitation over mountains in the western United States. Precipitation projections from ICAR were similar to projections that used statistical relationships to downscale climate projections. However, projections differed between ICAR and statistically downscaled datasets in whether they increased, decreased, or stayed the same in specific, hydrologically relevant regions such as the eastern Cascades and high elevation areas of the Upper Colorado River basin. These differences were attributed to the simulation of physical processes in ICAR. The results highlight the importance of kilometer-scale atmospheric processes in regional climate projections.

Currier, William Ryan [NOAA/Physical Sciences Labo↗