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At least 361 records · Page 20

Regularization via f -Divergence: An Application to Multi-Oxide Spectroscopic Analysis

In this paper, we explore the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for predicting the chemical composition of complex geologic samples in a simulated Martian atmospheric environment. Specifically, we aim to characterize oxide weight percentages (wt.%) of rock samples analyzed by remote Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS), framing the problem as a multi-target regression task . Neural networks trained on LIBS spectra are prone to overfitting due to high spectral complexity, limited labeled data, and measurement noise. While regularization is critical for improving generalization, common methods (e.g., ℓ 2 regularization) impose constraints not directly tied to data distribution properties. We propose a novel regularization method based on a specific ƒ-divergence induced by a graph-based estimator, designed to constrain the distributional discrepancy between predictions and targets. This regularizer serves a dual purpose: (a) mitigating overfitting by enforcing a constraint on the distributional difference between predictions and noisy targets, and (b) acting as an auxiliary loss that penalizes large divergences. To enable backpropagation, we develop a differentiable approximation of this particular ƒ-divergence, making the method feasible for neural networks. Experiments on ChemCam and SuperCam LIBS calibration spectra show that mathematical equation-divergence regularization outperforms or matches standard regularization methods (ℓ 1 , ℓ 2 , dropout) and the classical baseline, partial least squares (PLS). Combining ƒ-divergence regularization with standard regularization yields further performance gains, indicating that distributional regularization is useful in this context giving a promising direction for robust model training in planetary science applications. Source code is publicly available at Klein and Li (2025), https://doi.org/10.11578/dc.20250530.7.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultraviolet Photooxidation of Smectite-Bound Fe(II) and Implications for the Origin of Martian Nontronites

Clay minerals detected with orbital and in situ instruments in ancient Martian terrains constrain Mars' climate and aqueous alteration history. Early in its history, Mars experienced an atmospheric redox change and iron-bearing clay minerals may preserve the effects of that transition. Ferrous smectites, the thermodynamically predicted product of chemical weathering of basalts under anoxic conditions, may have undergone oxidation by exposure to chemical oxidants in the atmosphere or regolith, or by direct photooxidation at the surface. To assess these potential oxidation pathways, ferrous trioctahedral smectites of varying initial iron content were synthesized and subjected to oxidation by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Experimental UV irradiation under an anoxic atmosphere equivalent to approximately 7 years of flux on the Martian surface caused partial oxidation of smectite-bound Fe (Fe 3+ /ΣFe = 16–18%) and octahedral sheet contraction. Metal-OH vibrational bands in visible/near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra of oxidized smectites changed in band depth and asymmetry with higher iron content. X-ray diffraction patterns of UV irradiated samples indicate the formation of a mixed di- and trioctahedral smectite or a secondary nontronite phase, possibly on the surfaces of higher iron content smectites. Furthermore, these experiments suggest that UV irradiation is able to oxidize structurally bound iron in smectites without the presence of other chemical oxidants. Photooxidation may have influenced the mineralogy, both syndepositionally and postdepositionally, of Martian alteration assemblages formed near the surface and this process needs not be limited to one part of their formation history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator

The nature and origin of organic aerosol in the atmosphere remain unclear. The gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that constitute primary organic aerosols (POAs) and the multigenerational chemical aging of SVOCs are particularly poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry), can be a useful tool to describe emissions of POA and its chemical evolution. However, the evaluation of model uncertainty and the optimal model parameterization may be expensive to probe using only WRF-Chem simulations. Gaussian process emulators, trained on simulations from relatively few WRF-Chem simulations, are capable of reproducing model results and estimating the sources of model uncertainty within a defined range of model parameters. In this study, a WRF-Chem VBS parameterization is proposed; we then generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of 111 model runs, perturbing 10 parameters of the WRF-Chem model relating to organic aerosol emissions and the VBS oxidation reactions. This allowed us to cover the model's uncertainty space and to compare outputs from each run to aerosol mass spectrometer observations of organic aerosol concentrations and O:C ratios measured in New Delhi, India. The simulations spanned the organic aerosol concentrations measured with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, they also highlighted potential structural errors in the model that may be related to unsuitable diurnal cycles in the emissions and/or failure to adequately represent the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. While the structural errors prevented us from clearly identifying an optimized VBS approach in WRF-Chem, we were able to apply the emulator in the following two periods: the full period (1–29 May) and a subperiod period of 14:00–16:00 h LT (local time) on 1–29 May. The combination of emulator analysis and model evaluation metrics allowed us to identify plausible parameter combinations for the analyzed periods. We demonstrate that the methodology presented in this study can be used to determine the model uncertainty and to identify the appropriate parameter combination for the VBS approach and hence to provide valuable information to improve our understanding of OA production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capability Demonstration of a 3D CdZnTe Detector on a High-Altitude Balloon Flight

In collaboration between the University of Michigan and Los Alamos National Laboratory, a 3D position-sensing CdZnTe (CZT) detector prototype was built and integrated into a high-altitude balloon platform to evaluate its performance in a space-like mixed-radiation environment. The detector prototype, Orion Eagle, was designed to operate in near-vacuum environments without any temperature regulation. Orion Eagle was hand-launched from NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility (CSBF) at Fort Sumner, NM on September 26, 2021, and successfully operated throughout a 9-hour flight, which reached 38.5 km in altitude. The flight met its objectives, successfully detecting atmospheric gamma rays and galactic cosmic rays, and raising the Technical Readiness Level from 4 to 6 for large-volume 3D CZT detector technology for space applications. Ionization tracks produced by charged particles create spatial signatures in the detector that are distinguishable from discrete gamma-ray interactions. Therefore, the 3D position-sensing capabilities using pixelated electrodes on a CZT detector can help enable discrimination of background charged particles from gamma-ray events without an anticoincidence shield. The potential for background rejection capability, ambient-temperature operation, gamma-ray coded-aperture and Compton imaging, and near High Purity Germanium (HPGe) energy resolution motivate the use of large-volume 3D CZT imaging spectrometers in future space missions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗

Assessment of Wind Energy Resource Potential for Future Human Missions to Mars

Energy sustainability and redundancy for surface habitats, life support systems and scientific instrumentation represent one of the highest-priority issues for future crewed missions to Mars. However, power sources utilized for the current class of robotic missions to Mars may be potentially dangerous near human surface habitats (for example, nuclear) or lack stability on diurnal or seasonal timescales (for example, solar) that cannot be easily compensated for by power storage. Here, we evaluate the power potential for wind turbines as an alternative energy resource on the Mars surface. Using a state-of-the-art Mars global climate model, we analyse the total planetary Martian wind potential and calculate its spatial and temporal variability. We find that wind speeds at some proposed landing sites are sufficiently fast to provide a stand-alone or complementary energy source to solar or nuclear power. While several regions show promising wind energy resource potential, other regions of scientific interest can be discarded based on the natural solar and wind energy potential alone. We demonstrate that wind energy compensates for diurnal and seasonal reductions in solar power particularly in regions of scientific merit in the midlatitudes and during regional dust storms. Critically, proposed turbines stabilize power production when combined with solar arrays, increasing the percent time that power exceeds estimated mission requirements from ~40% for solar arrays alone to greater than 60-90% across a broad fraction of the Mars surface. We encourage additional study aimed at advancing wind turbine technology to operate efficiently under Mars conditions and to extract more power from Mars winds.

atmospheric dynamics↗

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗

Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

For an atmospheric airburst the primary source of concern when assessing uncertainty is the size and velocity. Determining these properties provides the basis for threat assessment, as the total energy of the asteroid may then be estimated, and the threat investigated thoroughly. Even with clarity as to how much energy an asteroid may deposit, a great deal of uncertainty still exists for the actual energy deposition process. One such source of uncertainty is the geometry of the incoming asteroid. The geometry of an asteroid will alter the stress distribution during entry, which adds uncertainty to when fracture will occur. Here, in this study, we use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to model the atmospheric airburst of Tunguska-scale asteroids with varying geometric profiles, including a sphere, ellipsoid, binary and superellipsoid. Each asteroid is modeled as a homogenous structure with strength. We assess uncertainty through a series of planar 2D simulation cases for each geometry, comparing the source of stochasticity across geometries. A single 3D airburst simulation for each geometry is also analyzed. Additionally, the 3D cases are compared to the highly uncertain Tunguska event, predicting variance in burst height across geometries, but all bounded by theoretical burst heights proposed for Tunguska.

Airburst↗

Insights into the failure mode of the Chelyabinsk meteor from high-fidelity simulation

In 2013, an asteroid with a diameter of approximate 20 m broke up in the atmosphere above the Russian city of Chelyabinsk producing what is known as an airburst event. The event was recorded on video from multiple angles and a 500-kg fragment was recovered from Lake Chebarkul shortly thereafter. These aspects, coupled with the asteroid’s large size, distinguish the Chelyabinsk event as unique. In this study, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics method to examine the breakup mode of a Chelyabinsk-sized monolithic asteroid and probe whether a monolithic structure is consistent with observations from the Chelyabinsk event. We model the object as a homogeneous sphere with properties consistent with Chelyabinsk meteorites. We use planar-2D simulations to test the sensitivity of results to variations in the material model and to qualitatively inspect the cause of crack nucleation and fragmentation. We then compare results from a 3D simulation to observations from the event. Our 3D simulation predicts a burst height within 3 km of the observed peak luminosity suggesting the responsible asteroid may have been monolithic.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TOI-2076 and TOI-1807: Two Young, Comoving Planetary Systems within 50 pc Identified by TESS that are Ideal Candidates for Further Follow Up

We report the discovery of two planetary systems around comoving stars: TOI-2076 (TIC 27491137) and TOI-1807 (TIC 180695581). TOI-2076 is a nearby (41.9 pc) multiplanetary system orbiting a young (204 ± 50 Myr), bright (K = 7.115 in TIC v8.1) start. TOI-1807 hosts a single transiting planet and is similarly nearby (42.58 pc), similarly young (180 ± 40 Myr ), and bright. Both targets exhibit significant, periodic variability due to starspots, characteristic of their young ages. Using photometric data collected by TESS we identify three transiting planets around TOI-2076 with radii of R {sub b} = 3.3 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕}, R {sub c} = 4.4 ± 0.05 R {sub ⊕}, and R {sub d} = 4.1 ± 0.07 R {sub ⊕}. Planet TOI-2076b has a period of P {sub b} = 10.356 days. For both TOI-2076c and d, TESS observed only two transits, separated by a 2 yr interval in which no data were collected, preventing a unique period determination. A range of long periods (<17 days) are consistent with the data. We identify a short-period planet around TOI-1807 with a radius of R {sub b} = 1.8 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕} and a period of P {sub b} = 0.549 days. Their close proximity, and bright, cool host stars, and young ages make these planets excellent candidates for follow up. TOI-1807b is one of the best-known small (R < 2 R{sub ⊕}) planets for characterization via eclipse spectroscopy and phase curves with JWST. TOI-1807b is the youngest ultra-short-period planet discovered to date, providing valuable constraints on formation timescales of short-period planets. Given the rarity of young planets, particularly in multiple-planet systems, these planets present an unprecedented opportunity to study and compare exoplanet formation, and young planet atmospheres, at a crucial transition age for formation theory.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Earth as a transducer for dark-photon dark-matter detection

We propose the use of the Earth as a transducer for ultralight dark-matter detection. In particular, we point out a novel signal of kinetically mixed dark-photon dark matter: a monochromatic oscillating magnetic field generated at the surface of the Earth. Similar to the signal in a laboratory experiment in a shielded box (or cavity), this signal arises because the lower atmosphere is a low-conductivity air gap sandwiched between the highly conductive interior of the Earth below and ionosphere or interplanetary medium above. At low masses (frequencies) the signal in a laboratory detector is usually suppressed by the size of the detector multiplied by the dark-matter mass. Crucially, in our case the suppression is by the radius of the Earth, and not by the (much smaller) height of the atmosphere. We compute the size and global vectorial pattern of our magnetic field signal, which enables sensitive searches for this signal using unshielded magnetometers dispersed over the surface of the Earth. In principle, the signal we compute exists for any dark photon in the mass range 10 –21 eV ≲ m A' ≲ 3 × 10 –14 eV . We summarize the results of our companion paper [M. A. Fedderke et al., Search for dark-photon dark matter in the SuperMAG geomagnetic field dataset, arXiv:2108.08852], in which we detail such a search using a publicly available dataset from the SuperMAG Collaboration: we report no robust signal candidates and so place constraints in the (more limited) dark-photon dark-matter mass range 2 × 10 –18 eV ≲ m A' ≲ 7 × 10 –17 eV (corresponding to frequencies 6 × 10 –4 Hz ≲ f ≲ 2 × 10 –2 Hz). These constraints are complementary to existing astrophysical bounds. Future searches for this signal may improve the sensitivity over a wide range of ultralight dark-matter candidates and masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Listening for the Landing: Seismic Detections of Perseverance's Arrival at Mars With InSight

The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence of NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover will act as a seismic source of known temporal and spatial localization. We evaluate whether the signals produced by this event will be detectable by the InSight lander (3,452 km away), comparing expected signal amplitudes to noise levels at the instrument. Modeling is undertaken to predict the propagation of the acoustic signal (purely in the atmosphere), the seismoacoustic signal (atmosphere-to-ground coupled), and the elastodynamic seismic signal (in the ground only). Our results suggest that the acoustic and seismoacoustic signals, produced by the atmospheric shock wave from the EDL, are unlikely to be detectable due to the pattern of winds in the martian atmosphere and the weak air-to-ground coupling, respectively. However, the elastodynamic seismic signal produced by the impact of the spacecraft's cruise balance masses on the surface may be detected by InSight. The upper and lower bounds on predicted ground velocity at InSight are 2.0 × 10 -14 and 1.3 × 10 -10 m s -1 . The upper value is above the noise floor at the time of landing 40% of the time on average. The large range of possible values reflects uncertainties in the current understanding of impact-generated seismic waves and their subsequent propagation and attenuation through Mars. Uncertainty in the detectability also stems from the indeterminate instrument noise level at the time of this future event. A positive detection would be of enormous value in constraining the seismic properties of Mars, and in improving our understanding of impact-generated seismic waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A North Sea in Situ Evaluation of the Fitch Wind Farm Parameterization Within the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino and 3D Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes

Wind resource assessments and wind power forecasts that account for wind farm wakes are sensitive to the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. This work compares the one-dimensional Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme with a three-dimensional PBL (3DPBL) scheme, evaluating predictions made with both schemes against two sets of North Sea in situ observations of wind farm wakes. The optimal PBL scheme varies based on the observations (FINO1 tower vs. aircraft), the quantity of interest (wind speed vs. turbulence kinetic energy [TKE]), and the error metric (bias, centered root mean square error [cRMSE], R2, and earth mover's distance [EMD]). Whereas 3DPBL wind speeds outperform MYNN wind speeds with respect to the cRMSE at the FINO1 site located at a single point within the turbine rotor layer, 3DPBL TKE bias is larger than MYNN TKE bias when compared to aircraft observations taken 100 m above a wind farm. Wind speeds in the aircraft region are ambiguous with regard to which PBL scheme is optimal. Aircraft MYNN wind speeds outperform 3DPBL wind speeds with respect to R2 and cRMSE but underperform with respect to bias and EMD. Future evaluations across broader temporal and spatial scales may offer further insight into model differences.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Using Radiogenic Noble Gas Nuclides to Identify and Characterize Rock Fracturing

Abstract Fracture‐released radiogenic noble gas nuclides are used to identify locations and constrain the volume of new fracture creation during subsurface detonations. Real‐time, in situ noble gases and reactive gases were monitored using a field‐deployed mass spectrometer and automated sampling system in a multilevel borehole array. Released gases were measured after two different detonations having distinct energy, pressure, and gas volume characteristics. Explosive‐derived gases (N 2 O, CO 2 ) and excess radiogenic 4 He and 40 Ar above atmospheric background are used to identify locations of gas transport and new fracture creation after each detonation. Fracture‐released radiogenic 4 He is used to constrain the volume of newly created fractures with a model of helium release from fracturing. Explosive by‐product gas was observed in multiple locations both near and distal to the shot locations for both detonations. Radiogenic 4 He and 40 Ar release from rock damage was observed in locations near the detonation after the second, more powerful detonation. Observed 4 He response is consistent with a model of diffusive release from newly created fractures. Volume of new fractures estimated from the 4 He release ranges from 1 to 5 m 2 with apertures ranging from 0.1 to 1 m. Our results provide evidence that radiogenic noble gases released during fracture creation can be identified at the field scale in real time and used to identify timing and location of fracture creation during deformation events. This technique could be useful in subsurface science and engineering problems where the location and amount of newly created rock fracturing is of interest including fault rupture, mine safety, subsurface detonation monitoring and reservoir stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparative Evaluation of the Ability of the MYNN‐EDMF PBL Scheme in WRF Model to Reproduce Near Surface Wind Speed Over Different Topographical Types

Abstract This study systematically evaluates the performance of the Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino‐Eddy‐Diffusion‐Mass‐Flux planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating near‐surface wind speeds across various topographies in New York State (NYS). Simulated wind speeds are compared with in‐situ measurements from 22 surface sites, grouped into six topographic categories: continental plain (CT), lakeside (LS), river valley (RV), Long Island (LI), Block Island (BI), and offshore ocean (OO). A quantitative evaluation based on Relative Euclidean Distance shows that wind speeds at the OO site are the most accurately reproduced, followed by those at LI sites, while the model performs less accurately for the remaining topographic groups. Wind speeds over CT sites tend to be overestimated by approximately 1 m/s, although their diurnal variability (DV) is well captured. In contrast, the model underestimates wind DV at LS, RV, LI, and BI sites, with the largest biases occurring at LI and BI, resulting in underestimated daytime wind speed and/or overestimated nighttime wind speed. The OO winds exhibit minimal diurnal variation, accurately captured by our WRF model. The surface wind diurnal variation is closely linked to PBL development. Among the indicators of PBL development, surface potential temperature biases most strongly correlate with wind speed biases. Our WRF model faces challenges in capturing the distinctions between winds influenced by local circulations and those over continental plains, and the significantly stronger winds at OO compared to BI. Potential causes for these biases are discussed, offering pathways for improving surface wind simulations in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗