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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Causal Directions Matter: How Environmental Factors Drive Convective Cloud Detrainment Heights

This study investigates how environmental factors influence the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) in deep convective clouds. Through a novel application of the Linear Non‐Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), we discover causal structures between environmental variables and LMD, observed at six tropical sites operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. LiNGAM effectively identifies causal directions among variables of interest, revealing robust relationships such as those among the lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and convective inhibition (CIN), aligning with prior knowledge. Relative humidity is shown to directly influence LMD; however, this relationship exhibits strong nonlinearity and becomes difficult to detect when the contrast between oceanic and continental environments is excluded from the analysis. This study highlights the importance of establishing causal relationships before performing statistical inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Big Data For Operation and Maintenance Cost Reduction

The purpose of this research is to develop a first-of-a-kind framework for integrating Big Data capability into the daily activities of our current fleet of nuclear power plants. Big Data is traditionally defined as data sets with high volume, velocity, and heterogeneity, and the existing Big Data analytics capabilities are now widely popular in fields such as finance, weather, e-commerce, healthcare and sports. In the nuclear industry, while the volume and velocity of data may present computational challenges for existing analytics capabilities, data heterogeneity are seen to present the major challenge. This research project mainly focuses on incorporating the wide range of data heterogeneities in nuclear power plants into an integrated Big Data Analytics capability. The primary end-product of this project is a Big Data framework that is capable of dealing with the large volume and heterogeneity of the data found in nuclear power plants to extract timely and valuable information on equipment performance. The framework can generate system insights that are actionable relations between measurable impacts and the corresponding maintenance action plans and enable optimization of plant operation and maintenance based on the extracted information. The developed framework is capable of handling heterogeneous data including both image data and time-series sensor data. Specifically, this developed framework includes the following components. The first component is an overarching maintenance ontology which includes system insights required by maintenance optimization. The maintenance ontology interacts with other components in the developed framework. The second component handles Piping & Instrumentation Diagram (P&ID) data. It can be used to extract system components and their relations automatically from the P&IDs. This extracted information is stored in the first component, i.e., maintenance ontology, and is also used as input to the third component, i.e., a tool for generating the fault tree for the corresponding system. The generated fault tree in turn is stored in the ontology for assessing risk that is used as a criterion in maintenance policy optimization. The fourth component is a tool for inferring the parameters in the Markov degradation model for a nuclear system. It uses basic information from the ontology. The fifth component is a tool for assessing the degradation level using sensor measurement data, for example, pressure, flowrate. This tool can be used for determining corrective maintenance actions. The results obtained from components four and five are returned to the ontology. The sixth component of the framework is a tool for optimizing the maintenance policy for a nuclear system of interest. It takes certain basic information from the ontology, e.g., costs of maintenance actions and system failures, as input, and returns the optimal maintenance policy to the ontology. This tool can be used for determining predictive maintenance actions. A set of experiments have also been conducted to verify the algorithms developed in this project for nuclear system degradation monitoring. The experiments are based on four solenoid valves, similar to the ones used in nuclear power plants. The analyses based on the experimental data using two algorithms, i.e., the Randomized Window Decomposition (RWD) algorithm and the particle filtering algorithm, and the results are introduced in the report. The Big Data framework developed in this project can be used as a support tool in daily activities of plant operation and maintenance and will reduce current costs while maintaining or improving safety levels. Overall, the project will not only benefit existing reactors, however it will open new frontiers to realize the long overdue value of Big Data Analytics in the nuclear sphere.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shock tube/laser absorption measurement of the rate constant of the reaction: H 2 O 2 + CO 2 2OH + CO 2

We address the role of the linear mixing rule in the kinetics of the H 2 O 2 decomposition system by reporting the rate constant for H 2 O 2 + M = 2OH + M (M = Ar and CO 2 ) in the temperature range of 1087-1234 K at low pressures in a mixture of 20% CO 2 in Argon. The reaction rate constant was inferred from H 2 O concentrations monitored by using a laser-absorption spectroscopy-based water diagnostic. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first measurement of the rate constant of this reaction in a mixture to be reported in literature. A significant discrepancy was found between the rate constants derived using the traditional linear mixing rule and the reduced pressure linear mixing rule. Furthermore, this discrepancy can have serious implications on the predictive accuracy of these kinetic models, especially under conditions relevant to the operation of supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycles that rely on oxy-fuel combustion in a working fluid comprised almost entirely of CO 2 .

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design study of an edge current density diagnostic using new high-performance single-channel beam emission spectrometers at DIII-D

A novel Motional Stark Effect spectroscopy system has been designed for application at the DIII-D tokamak. The system is optimized for studies of the poloidal and toroidal magnetic field in the plasma pedestal region with frame rates of up to 10 kHz. Further, light from an existing high-photon-throughput collection lens is analyzed using four single-channel f/2.8 Czerny–Turner spectrometers that use custom-made lens systems instead of mirrors. Each spectrometer has two separate outgoing legs and is operated in a positive grating order, which allows for simultaneous observations of D-alpha and D-beta spectra. Forward modeling using the code FIDASIM shows a radial resolution of the system close to 0.6 cm and sufficiently good spectral resolution when masking the high throughput light collection lens in the horizontal direction to avoid overly strong Doppler broadening of beam emission lines. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity study considering realistic levels of readout and photon noise shows that the poloidal and toroidal magnetic field strengths can be inferred with an uncertainty of less than 1%, which will allow the inference of changes of the plasma current during transient events.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Designing an impedance-based technique for studying corrosion on cladding materials

In nuclear cladding materials, changes in structure and chemistry over the lifetime of claddings can have a significant impact on fuel and reactor performance. Currently, chemical evolution over the lifetime of the fuel and cladding materials can only be inferred using post-irradiation examination. As an alternative to post-irradiation measurements, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) can provide an in-pile measurement of changes in chemistry in oxides and hydrides. The objective of this study is to develop an impedance based sensing technology for measuring spatial- and time-resolved in-pile changes in cladding chemistry in order to understand the mechanisms of hydride formation, hydride dealloying and associated cladding corrosion so that a mitigation strategy and technology can be developed for reactor safe operation. Two prototype impedance-based sensors were designed and assembled using Zr-4 as working electrode and Pt as counter and reference electrode. One sensor is tubular type and the other one is plate-type. These sensors will be tested in static autoclave to investigate the effects of various environmental conditions (including temperature, pressure, and water chemistry) on cladding material corrosion mechanisms. These in-situ EIS sensors would provide corrosion-layer parameters in high-temperature water, such as (1) total layer thickness, (2) the evolution of oxide structures as uniform layer dielectric or sublayer(s), and (3) the possible electrochemistry of the volume corrosion process and the solid/liquid interface, such as the cyclic nature of corrosion of Zr alloys in high-temperature water. This work was focused on electrochemical sensor development, targeting cladding oxides/hydrides under thermodynamic equilibria; characterization of samples using Kelvin probe force microscopy (SKPFM), Raman spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) to provide high-resolution co-localized characterization of zirconium oxide and metal/oxide interface.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning: Methods, metrics, and comparisons

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with traditional methods. However, quantifying errors and uncertainties in NN-based inference is more complicated than in traditional methods. This is because in addition to aleatoric uncertainty associated with noisy data, there is also uncertainty due to limited data, but also due to NN hyperparameters, overparametrization, optimization and sampling errors as well as model misspecification. Although there are some recent works on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in NNs, there is no systematic investigation of suitable methods towards quantifying the total uncertainty effectively and efficiently even for function approximation, and there is even less work on solving partial differential equations and learning operator mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces using NNs. In this work, we present a comprehensive framework that includes uncertainty modeling, new and existing solution methods, as well as evaluation metrics and post-hoc improvement approaches. Further, to demonstrate the applicability and reliability of our framework, we present an extensive comparative study in which various methods are tested on prototype problems, including problems with mixed input-output data, and stochastic problems in high dimensions. In the Appendix, we include a comprehensive description of all the UQ methods employed. Further, to help facilitate the deployment of UQ in Scientific Machine Learning research and practice, we present and develop in [1] an open-source Python library (github.com/Crunch-UQ4MI/neuraluq), termed NeuralUQ, that is accompanied by an educational tutorial and additional computational experiments.

11 physics-informed neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feedback Control Approaches for Restoration of Power Grids from Blackouts

The automated restoration of power systems with variable energy resources is a timely problem to tackle. Automated restoration advice can support operators in deciding on strategic actions to restore power grids from a blackout with a mix of conventional and renewable generation resources. To this end, this paper frames the restoration process of power grids with solar resources as a nonlinear dynamic model with algebraic constraints in discrete time which is steered by feedback control loops. We discuss two feedback-control strategies based on greedy and reinforcement learning algorithms, and contrast their performance with restoration plans generated by a mixed-integer linear program. We found that the reinforcement learning algorithm infers restoration actions faster than the greedy one. However, the tuning process of the reinforcement learning parameters is slower than for the greedy one.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

High strain-rate strength response of single crystal tantalum through in-situ hole closure imaging experiments

The properties of crystalline materials often depend on directionality and operating conditions. Specifically, the strength of materials can depend anisotropically on crystal direction and the loading condition. To probe these effects, a preliminary series of high strain-rate (> 105/s) strength plate-impact hole closure experiments were performed on high purity single crystal Tantalum cubes. The orientation of the single crystals with respect to impact/loading were varied to provide data to inform crystal plasticity modeling efforts. The experiments consist of in-situ high-resolution X-ray radiographic imaging of the hole collapse under dynamic compression conditions to infer the material strength via its resistance to closure at increasing levels of plastic strain. The experiments are compared against hydrocode simulation predictions. Here, a comparison with simple elastic perfectly plastic strength model predictions is presented to elucidate the response of the different crystal orientations at high strain-rate and large plastic strains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assigning Optical Absorption Transitions with Light-Induced Crystal Structures: Case Study of a Single-Crystal Nanooptomechanical Transducer

UV/vis absorption spectroscopy affords indirect structural information about the photochemistry and photophysics of molecules by inferring types of electronic transitions from spectral features. Direct structural information would become available, though, if light-induced crystal structures could be mapped against changes in optical absorption spectra as a photochemical process evolves. We present a series of light-induced crystal structures that track real-time changes in solid-state optical absorption spectra of a crystalline nanooptomechanical transducer, while the transduction process unfolds within its crystal lattice at 100 K. Results afford a combined structural and spectral mapping of its solid-state optical absorption, from which the operational mechanism of nanooptomechanical transduction is revealed. Metal-to-ligand and metal-centered charge-transfer bands are assigned to optical absorption peaks directly from their 3-D light-induced crystal structures. This approach could be used to characterize many solid-state optoelectronic materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

BMINN: Learning chemical potentials and parameters from voltage data for multi-phase battery modeling

Free-energy landscapes and chemical potentials govern the dynamics of phase transitions, transport, and stability in functional materials, yet they remain experimentally inaccessible under realistic operating conditions. Here we introduce a Bayesian model-integrated neural network (BMINN) that embeds physics-based formulations of non-autonomous partial differential-algebraic equations into probabilistic learning. This approach reconstructs hidden thermodynamics directly from macroscopic current-voltage data, providing quantitative access to metastable states, staging transitions, and energy barriers without synchrotron probes. Demonstrated on lithium-graphite electrodes, BMINN recovers full Gibbs free-energy landscapes with fidelity validated against operando X-ray diffraction. The framework generalizes across dynamical regimes, enabling accurate voltage prediction, internal state estimation, and inference of governing parameters. Beyond batteries, BMINN exemplifies a broadly applicable strategy for learning missing physics in multiphase, non-equilibrium systems, offering a new pathway to uncover hidden thermodynamic functions across condensed matter and materials physics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust analysis of space-, time-, and energy-resolved soft x-ray measurements of magnetically confined fusion plasmas (invited)

A novel compact multi-energy soft x-ray (ME-SXR) diagnostic based on the PILATUS3 100K x-ray detector has been developed in collaboration between the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and the University of Wisconsin-Madison and tested on the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) reversed-field pinch. This solid-state photon-counting detector consists of a two-dimensional array of ~100 000 pixels for which the lower photon absorption cutoff energy can be independently set, allowing it to be configured for a unique combination of simultaneous spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of ~1 cm, 100 eV, and 500 Hz, respectively. The diagnostic is highly versatile and can be readily adapted to diverse plasma operating conditions and scientific needs without any required downtime. New results from improved-confinement and quasi-single helicity plasmas in the MST demonstrate how the detector can be applied to study multiple aspects of the evolution of magnetically confined fusion-grade plasmas. These include observing the evolution of thermal emissivity, characterizing the energy of mid-Z excitation lines, extracting the T e profile, and observing the evolution of non-thermal populations. A technique for integrating the ME-SXR diagnostic into an integrated data analysis framework based on Bayesian inference is also presented. As a result, this allows ME-SXR measurements to be combined with data for complementary diagnostics in order to simultaneously infer Te and nZ from all available information.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transactive Energy System Deployment Over Insecure Communication Links

Here, in this paper, the privacy and security issues associated with the transactive energy system (TES) deployment over insecure communication links are addressed. In particular, it is ensured that 1) individual agents’ bidding information is kept private throughout hierarchical market-based interactions; and 2) any extraneous data injection attack can be quickly and easily detected. An implementation framework is proposed to enable the cryptography-based enhancement of privacy and security for the deployment of any general hierarchical systems including TESs. Under the proposed framework, a unified cryptography-based approach is developed to achieve both privacy and security simultaneously. Specifically, privacy preservation is realized by an enhanced Paillier encryption scheme, where a block design is proposed to significantly improve computational efficiency. Attack detection is further achieved by an enhanced Paillier digital signature scheme, where a stamp-concatenation mechanism is proposed to enable detection of data replace and reorder attacks. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed cyber-resilient design for transactive energy systems. Note to Practitioners—This paper is motivated by addressing the issues of cyber resiliency for practically deploying transactive energy system (TES) but it is also applicable to the problem of enhancing the privacy and security for any general hierarchical control systems. TES is an emerging control approach that engages energy suppliers and customers through market operations and uses the price to optimally allocate energy resources. While it has been shown to be promising for power system applications, the underlying market-based interactions raise significant concerns of privacy (data leakage) and security (data tampering). However, existing TES works only focus on the coordination mechanism instead of privacy and security issues. This paper proposes a new cryptography-based TES design for practical deployment. Specifically, to protect privacy, individual supply and demand amounts to be exchanged are all encrypted in a particular way such that the original amounts cannot be inferred from the encrypted amounts, while the desired computation for setting the market clearing price can be carried out over the encrypted amounts, thus generating an encrypted result which, when decrypted, matches that of the same computation over the original amounts. To achieve security, for each exchanged data, its sender generates a particular digital signature which is exchanged together with the data. This enables the receiver to automatically detect the integrity by checking whether a mathematical relationship holds for the pair of data and signature. In our future research, we will investigate more challenging scenarios where some suppliers and customers themselves could be corrupted and purposely submit distorted amounts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole in the Center of the Milky Way

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 × 10$^{6}$ M $_{⊙}$, which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination (i > 50°), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 10$^{3}$–10$^{5}$ gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the Oxidative Degradation Mechanism of Solid Amine Sorbents for CO 2 Capture from Air: Roles of Atmospheric Water

Abstract Direct air capture (DAC) processes for extraction of CO 2 from ambient air are unique among chemical processes in that they operate outdoors with minimal feed pretreatments. Here, the impact of humidity on the oxidative degradation of a prototypical solid supported amine sorbent, poly(ethylenimine) (PEI) supported on Al 2 O 3 , is explored in detail. By combining CO 2 adsorption measurements, oxidative degradation rates, elemental analyses, solid‐state NMR and in situ IR spectroscopic analysis in conjunction with 18 O labeling of water, a comprehensive picture of sorbent oxidation is achieved under accelerated conditions. We demonstrated that the presence of water vapor can play an important role in accelerating the degradation reactions. From the study we inferred the identity and kinetics of formation of the major oxidative products, and the role(s) of humidity. Our data are consistent with a radical mediated autooxidative degradation mechanism.

Carneiro, Juliana S. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity

Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.

Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Mechanical Ventilation Systems in New US Homes: What types of systems are out there and are they functioning as intended?

As the airtightness of homes improves to meet energy efficiency goals, it becomes more important for mechanical ventilation systems to help maintain a comfortable and healthy indoor air environment. ASHRAE Standard 62.2 provides national guidance for mechanical ventilation system design and installation, however adoption of those guidelines into local building codes has occurred at different rates. Once provisions for mechanical ventilation are adopted in a local code, are mechanical ventilation systems properly designed, installed, commissioned and operated according to code or above code program requirements? Is there a need for further industry and homeowner education to ensure systems function as intended? This paper presents results from field studies that include characterization of mechanical ventilation systems in over 150 new homes in CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, OR, and SC built between 2011 and 2018. In each of the study homes, airflow of local (kitchen, bathrooms) and whole-house ventilation were measured. Occupant usage of the mechanical ventilation systems were monitored for one week in each home. Installed performance is compared to inferred design intent. The paper also includes homeowner perceptions about, and interactions with, the installed mechanical ventilation systems.

Martin, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Consistency of Water Scarcity Inferences between Large-Scale Hydrologic and Node-Based Water System Model Representations of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water resources model development and simulation efforts have seen rapid growth in recent decades to aid evaluations and planning around water scarcity and allocation. Models are typically developed by two distinct communities: (1) large-scale hydrologic modelers emphasizing hydroclimatological processes, and (2) water systems modelers emphasizing environmental, infrastructural, and institutional features that shape water scarcity at the local basin level. This study assesses whether two representative models from these communities produce consistent insights when evaluating the water scarcity vulnerabilities in the Upper Colorado River Basin within the state of Colorado. Results showed that although the regional-scale model [model for scale adaptive river transport (MOSART)—water management (WM)] can capture the aggregate effect of all water operations in the basin, it underestimates the subbasin-scale variability in specific user’s vulnerabilities. The basin-scale water systems model [State of Colorado’s Stream Simulation Model (StateMod)] suggests a larger variance of scarcity across the basin’s water users due to its more detailed accounting of local water allocation infrastructure and institutional processes. This model intercomparison highlights potentially significant limitations of large-scale studies in seeking to evaluate water scarcity and actionable adaptation strategies, as well as ways in which basin-scale water systems model’s information can be used to better inform water allocation and shortage when used in tandem with larger-scale hydrological modeling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗