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DOE OSTI2022

Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, part 3: Spatiotemporal probabilistic physics-of-failure analysis and its connection to safety and financial performance

Here, this paper is a byproduct of a line of research by the authors to analyze interrelationships of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The result of this line of research is summarized in three parts: Part 1 covers a categorical review of relevant literature and the theoretical bases that support the methodological developments in Part 2. Part 2 introduces an Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework to quantify the interconnections of safety and financial performance with a focus on operation and maintenance (O&M) of NPPs. Part 2 has also demonstrated the applicability and values of the I-ERM methodology through an NPP case study. This paper is Part 3, where detailed development and implementation of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., probabilistic physics-of-failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with safety and financial performance is reported. In this article, the physical failure modeling for hardware components is advanced by incorporating finite element analysis (FEA) into PPoF analysis and coupling the FEA-based PPoF with the maintenance performance through a renewal process model. This article covers two scientific contributions: (i) first-of-its-kind incorporation of FEA into the PPoF model of thermal fatigue for NPP components; and (ii) advancing the interface between the PPoF analysis and the renewal process model in order to deal with spatiotemporal FEA outputs and to efficiently estimate the physical transition rates even when the PPoF outputs are dominated by success data. Through the incorporation of FEA, the resolution of the PPoF analysis is enhanced as spatiotemporal conditions such as stress and temperature can be considered explicitly instead of relying on simplified assumptions or analytical models with reduced spatiotemporal dimensions. To demonstrate an application of the FEA-based PPoF analysis and its coupling with maintenance through the renewal process model, a case study is conducted using excess letdown elbow piping in the chemical and volume control system of a Pressurized Water Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design and full core fuel performance assessment of high burnup cores for 4-loop PWRs

Increasing the fuel discharge burnup of current light water reactors (LWRs) promises reductions in fuel cycle and/or operations costs. By assuming a constant core power density, the economic gain is enabled by better fuel utilization and/or an increased capacity factor. In this effort to investigate greater than 62 MWd/kgU maximum rod average burnup for 110+ kW/l core power density, two core designs have been developed for a standard 17x17, 193 fuel assemblies pressurized water reactor (PWR). The levelized unit cost methodology is employed to evaluate fuel cycle, operation and maintenance, and capital cost impacts and to examine the economic viability of both core design pathways. Core design and optimization are performed using the commercial STUDSVIK code package. Fuel performance analysis is realized in full core configuration via auditing FRAPCON4.1, FAST1.2, and the high-fidelity code BISON. To provide a realistic assessment, the core design process takes into consideration best practices in current PWR core design. It features acceptable performance in terms of various core design constraints on maximum allowable peaking and boron concentration. Gadolinia (Gd2O3) is used as a burnable poison with a maximum of 9 wt% concentration while feeding 89 or 77 fuel assemblies in a 3-batch refueling scheme. Full core fuel performance simulation, which allows for characterization of relevant fuel temperatures, plenum pressures, stresses, and strains, is performed with respect to two bounding burnup levels. Such performance is potentially licensable for the 18-month high burnup core (<68 MWd/kgU peak pin), while it is more challenging for the 24-month high burnup core design pathway (<75 MWd/kgU peak pin). Maximum rod plenum pressure is identified as the most limiting fuel performance parameter. Here, while the scope of the present study focuses on the steady-state plus overpower conditions, the acceptability of the new discharge burnup has to be further assessed by considering uncertainties and impacts under accident scenarios in the future.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The economic value of photovoltaic performance loss mitigation in electricity spot markets

Photovoltaic (PV) performance is affected by reversible and irreversible losses. These can typically be mitigated through responsive and proactive operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. However, to generate profit, the cost of O&M must be lower than the value of the recovered electricity. This value depends both on the amount of recovered energy and on the electricity prices, which can vary significantly over time in spot markets. The present work investigates the impact of the electricity price variability on the PV profitability and on the related O&M activities in Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Here, it is found that the PV revenues varied by 1.6 × to 1.8 × within the investigated countries in the last 5 years. Moreover, forecasts predict higher average prices in the current decade compared to the previous one. These will increase the future PV revenues by up to 60% by 2030 compared to their 2015–2020 mean values. These higher revenues will make more funds available for better maintenance and for higher quality components, potentially leading to even higher energy yield and profits. Linearly growing or constant price assumptions cannot fully reproduce these expected price trends. Furthermore, significant price fluctuations can lead to unexpected scenarios and alter the predictions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Potential of Rainwater Harvesting for Cooling Towers: A Systematic Review and Regional Feasibility Assessment

Water scarcity has driven interest in rainwater harvesting, especially for U.S. industries like power and manufacturing, which dedicate a large percentage of their water needs to cooling towers. This paper provides a comprehensive systematic review of studies on the use of rainwater in cooling tower applications, along with an assessment of the regional feasibility of integrating RWH in U.S. manufacturing cooling towers. The systematic review examines the technical, economic, environmental, and policy feasibility of utilizing harvested rainwater, and the regional feasibility analysis evaluates the practical implementation of RWH in manufacturing cooling towers, considering factors such as regional RWH potential, water costs, state policies, and the industrial water use of manufacturing facilities per state. This study supports the hypothesis that RWH for cooling towers is technically feasible, economically viable, and environmentally beneficial. Harvested rainwater is naturally less conductive and soft, and rainwater reuse minimizes the ecological footprint. Supportive state policies, regional RWH potential, and rising water costs across the U.S. are important variables that may impact RWH adoption. The review highlights rooftop RWH as the most studied method and notes that implementing RWH requires infrastructure changes and filtration techniques. While initial investment costs may be high, operational and maintenance costs are low, making RWHS economically feasible over time. Regions with higher water costs and supportive policies are more likely to benefit from RWH adoption. The study provides a foundation for understanding the potential for using RWH in industrial cooling towers.

Cooling towers↗

DOE OSTI2020

A non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach to characterize heliostats in utility-scale power tower plants: Methodology and in-situ validation

No reliable in-situ optical characterization tool is available that can efficiently and accurately measure various optical errors of individual heliostats in a utility-scale power-tower plant. Here, an innovative non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach is proposed to measure mirror surface slope error, mirror facet canting error, and heliostat tracking error based on reflection images using the natural target—the tower—in a heliostat field. The NIO approach adopts various techniques in photogrammetry, reflectometry, and geometrical optics to first determine the camera position and the actual tower position with respect to the heliostat. Then, Snell’s law is applied to find the surface normal at the reflection point or line of a reflection image and derive the surface slope error, mirror facet canting error, and heliostat tracking error accordingly. In addition, an in-situ validation is performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the NIO approach. Analysis with multiple sets of reflection images on one single heliostat of interest demonstrates that the NIO method can achieve a measurement uncertainty of 0.22 mrad for mirror facet slope error (root-mean-square) at the given test conditions. The sensitivity of measurement uncertainty to various parameters will be presented in a separate work. In the future, state-of-the-art unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are planned to perform the efficient image collection with a goal to complete the survey across a utility-scale field of over 10,000 heliostats within one or a few days depending on the number of UASs. The development of the NIO approach is expected to fill the critical gap for successful solar-field operation and maintenance, which is necessary for the global growth of the solar power-tower technology. The NIO approach can also be applied to any relevant industry requiring high-precision mirror surface shape characterization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design, characterization and indoor validation of the optical soiling detector “DUSST”

Nowadays, photovoltaic (PV) technology has reached a high level of maturity in terms of module efficiency and cost competitiveness in comparison with other energy technologies. As PV has achieved high levels of deployment, the development of devices that can help to reduce PV operation and maintenance costs has become a priority. Soiling can be cause of significant losses in certain PV plants and its detection has become essential to ensure a correct mitigation. For this reason, accurate and low-cost monitoring devices are needed. While soiling stations have been traditionally employed to measure the impact of soiling, their high cost and maintenance have led to the development of innovative low-cost optical sensors, such as the device presented in this work and named “DUSST” (Detector Unit for Soiling Spectral Transmittance). The thermal characterization of DUSST’s components and the methodology used to predict soiling transmittance losses are presented in this study. The results demonstrate that the losses can be predicted with an error lower than 1.4%. The method has been verified with an experimental campaign with naturally soiled coupons exposed outdoors in Jaén, Spain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Degradation mechanisms and partial shading of glass-backsheet and double-glass photovoltaic modules in three climate zones determined by remote monitoring of time-series current–voltage and power datastreams

Degradation and partial shading impact the long-term reliability and power production of photovoltaic (PV) modules and power plants. Time-series power (P mp ) and current–voltage (I-V) curve datastreams from PV modules enable a remote diagnostic approach to quantify active degradation mechanisms and identify partial shading. We study three to nine years of these datastreams, including 3.6 million P mp I-V curves and 36 million values, from eight PV modules, four each of double-glass and glass-backsheet module architectures, located in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones, to determine the module’s performance loss rates (PLR), identify active degradation mechanisms and power loss modes, along with partial shading by local objects. Considering both module architectures, PLR results indicate that the BSh climate zone is the most aggressive for module degradation, while the Alpine ET zone is the mildest climate. PLR of double-glass modules located in BWh and BSh climate zones are different due to the significantly greater uniform current loss (ΔP Isc ) for double-glass modules in BSh, at a 5% significance level. Power loss for four out of five modules located in the BWh and BSh climates are dominated by uniform current degradation. Statistical analysis of multistep I-V curves detects partial shading experienced by three studied modules with details of the shading profile, the shading Poynting vector diagram for the obstacle’s relative position, shading scenarios, and duration. Lastly, this work demonstrates how remote monitoring and diagnosis of P mp & I-V time-series of modules can provide quantitative operations and maintenance insights into system performance, degradation mechanisms, and shading.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid characterization and failure analysis of 6276 rooftop-harvested photovoltaic connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors, which link modules in series and connect PV strings in parallel, have increasingly been recognized as a primary contributor to PV system failures and a source of numerous fire incidents. However, publicly available data on the rates and types of connector failures are scarce, primarily due to the proprietary nature of the information and the need for comprehensive analysis. This study represents the first large-scale investigation of harvested PV connectors, drawing from a dataset of 6276 connectors from residential rooftop solar systems across the United States. The outcome of this work is twofold: 1) we have established a rapid characterization method for large populations of harvested connectors, incorporating visual inspection, resistance measurements, and X-ray imaging; and 2) the analysis made possible by our rapid-processing method has revealed, for a population of connector models provided by a single rooftop installer, failure statistics and insights for various connector makes and models, installation practices, operating currents, and internal component displacements. This research identifies common failure modes that could be considered in future connector designs standards, and operations and maintenance practices, to ultimately improve the reliability of this vital component of PV infrastructure.

MC4↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exceptional Mineral Scaling Resistance from the Surface Gas Layer: Impacts of Surface Wetting Properties and the Gas Layer Charging Mechanism

Mineral scaling is a phenomenon that occurs on submerged surfaces in contact with saline solutions. In membrane desalination, heat exchangers, and marine structures, mineral scaling reduces process efficiency and eventually leads to process failure. Therefore, achieving long-term scaling resistance is beneficial to enhancing process performance and reducing operating and maintenance costs. While evidence shows that superhydrophobic surfaces may reduce mineral scaling kinetics, prolonged scaling resistance is limited due to the finite stability of the entrained gas layer present in a Cassie–Baxter wetting state. Additionally, superhydrophobic surfaces are not always feasible for all applications, but strategies for long-term scaling resistance with smooth or even hydrophilic surfaces are often overlooked. In this study, we elucidate the role of interfacial nanobubbles on the scaling kinetics of submerged surfaces of varied wetting properties, including those that do not entrain a gas layer. We show that both solution conditions and surface wetting properties that promote interfacial bubble formation enhances scaling resistance. In the absence of interfacial bubbles, scaling kinetics decrease as surface energy decreases, while the presence of bulk nanobubbles enhances the scaling resistance of the surface with any wetting property. The findings in this study allude to scaling mitigation strategies that are enabled by solution and surface properties that promote the formation and stability of interfacial gas layers and provide insights to surface and process design for greater scaling resistance.

calcite↗

DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities and Challenges for Industrial Water Treatment and Reuse

As the impact of water scarcity in the United States (U.S.) continues to grow through the 21st century, it is critical to develop strategies to reduce water use and improve the security of water resources. One such strategy is to diversify the sources from which water is supplied. Industrial withdrawals represent the fourth largest category of U.S. water use, the majority of which is sourced from fresh surface and groundwater. In this study, we critically explore the potential of industrial wastewater to serve as an alternative water resource through direct treatment and reuse. We begin by reviewing the state of the art of water use, treatment, and reuse across six representative industries: food and beverages, primary metals, pulp and paper, petroleum refining, chemicals, and data centers and campuses, highlighting key challenges and opportunities toward the expansion of reuse. We then employ a technoeconomic assessment of water treatment processes to analyze the capital investment, operating and maintenance costs, levelized cost of water, and electricity consumption of three specific industrial plants as case studies to better understand where research can promote impactful innovation. Finally, drawing together the results of our literature review and technoeconomic analyses, we provide a broad outlook on the future of industrial water reuse and discuss strategies for its expansion.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind plant wake losses: Disconnect between turbine actuation and control of plant wakes with engineering wake models

Wake losses from neighboring plants may become a major factor in wind plant design and control as additional plants are constructed in areas with high wind resource availability. Because plant wakes span a large range of physical scales, from turbine rotor diameter to tens of kilometers, it is unclear whether conventional wake models or turbine control strategies are effective at the plant scale. Wake steering and axial induction control are evaluated in the current work as means of reducing the impact of neighboring wind plants on power and levelized cost of electricity. FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) simulations were performed with the Gauss–Curl Hybrid and TurbOPark wake models as well as two operation and maintenance models to investigate control setpoint sensitivity to wake representation and economic factors. Both wake models estimate losses across a range of atmospheric conditions, although the wake loss magnitude is dependent on the wake model. Annual energy production and levelized cost of electricity are driven by wind direction frequency, with frequently aligned plants experiencing the greatest losses. However, both wake steering and axial induction are unable to mitigate the impact of upstream plants. Wake steering is constrained by plant geometry, since wake displacement is much less than the plant wake width, while axial induction requires curtailing the majority of turbines in upstream plants. Individual turbine strategies are limited by their effective scale and model representation. New wake models that include plant-scale physics are needed to facilitate the design of effective plant wake control strategies.

Scott, Ryan (ORCID:0000000328107574)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optical design for the single crystal neutron diffractometer Pioneer

Pioneer is a single-crystal neutron diffractometer optimized for small-volume samples and weak signals at the Second Target Station at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This paper presents the preliminary optical design progress, focusing on the rationale behind key design choices. It covers the T 0 and bandwidth disk choppers, guide and beam control system, incident-beam polarizer, scattering beam collimators, and additional strategies. The chopper locations are selected to maximize neutron transport while taking advantage of standardized shielding structures. To accommodate the maintenance shield, operational shutter, and polarizing V-cavity, the guide design includes significant gaps. When these optical components are moved out of the beam path, oversized collimators, rather than guides, will be translated in. Pioneer will utilize slit packages to control beam size and divergence and a translatable polarizing V-cavity. Absorbing panels are strategically placed near the end station to minimize background. An oscillating radial collimator, operating in a shift mode, will be used with the vertical cylindrical detector, while a fixed multi-cone collimator will be used with the bottom flat detector. In conclusion, these collimators will enable the detection of weak signals when complex sample environments are used.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Whole System Digital Twins for Advanced Reactors: Leveraging Graph Neural Networks and SAM Simulations

Here, in this work, we introduce a novel method to develop whole system digital twins (DTs) for advanced nuclear reactors. This method treats a complex reactor system as a heterogeneous graph: with the system components as different types of graph nodes and their physical interconnections as edges. Based on the heterogeneous graph, a graph neural network combining graph convolution and temporal node attention is developed as the DT, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the system's dynamic behavior. By utilizing the System Analysis Module (SAM) code for simulating various operational transients, we develop a graph-based database that trains the DT. This DT is characterized by two primary functions: It can infer the entire system's status using sparse node information, and it can predict the progress of transients based on current and historical system information. Our approach is validated through case studies on the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) system and a generic Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (gFHR), demonstrating the DT's accuracy in forecasting operational transients. The DT's rapid computation capabilities enhance its potential for supporting advanced reactor operations, offering benefits in intelligent simulation, autonomous control, and anomaly detection, paving the way for improved safety analysis and intelligent component health management for advanced reactor systems and reducing their operations and maintenance cost.

EBR-II↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Technoeconomic Opportunities in Automation for Nuclear Microreactors

Achieving full decarbonization of all economic sectors remains a challenge, especially in niche markets. For example, remote communities and industrial or mining activities detached from the main electric grid heavily rely on fossil fuels, similar to urban and industrial microgrids with combined heat and power needs. A combination of renewables and energy storage is often not suitable due to cost, reliability, intermittency, and large storage requirements. Small nuclear reactors with a flexible purpose could serve these applications. Microreactors (MR) are a class of reactors that are compact, factory manufactured, transportable, and self-regulating. Typically, they generate much less power than their large reactor counterparts. The main advantages of microreactors include the versatile nature of the energy produced, the reliability of supply, and freedom from having to transport and store large quantities of fuels on-site, coupled with the absence of dependence on an electrical grid. A strong business case is needed to move from the microreactor prototype to the commercialization phase. In fact, fossil fuels are still relatively inexpensive, and in the near term, carbon credits will be available to virtually compensate for emissions. For microreactors, one of the main costs in operation and maintenance (O&M) is their staffing levels. In this study, we investigate how to optimize the number (and thus the cost) of workers, moving from a traditional, fully manned, on-site personnel approach to an unmanned, remote personnel approach. We examine four different staffing models that can be implemented as the technology matures and evolves. We estimate the staffing needs of each model and build a business case to justify the substitution of on-site personnel with adequate technologies. To do so, we propose a cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from automating O&M activities. The model accounts for both the reduction in cost derived from the reduced number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) employees and the increase in cost derived from the need to buy new control hardware as needed. Applying the cost model that we created to different scenarios, an on-site O&M cost reduction exceeding 80% can be expected. Additionally, we found that it is more impactful to focus on automating routine O&M tasks rather than attempting to automate transient management (shutdowns, restarts, monitoring condition deviations). In fact, transients typically account for less than 1% of the total FTE time spent on the reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition

To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.

economic impact modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Power Electronics Based Self-Monitoring and Diagnosing for Photovoltaics Systems

Self-monitoring and diagnosing technology for photovoltaic (PV) systems is a method to reduce energy production losses. The proposed technology will enable existing panel-level power optimizers and inverters in a PV system to actively perturb the system, measure its response to these small-signal perturbations, and detect any changes in the small-signal impedances. Impedance measurement will be used to identify specific faults and power degradation trends in a PV panel. This information can be used to instantly alert Operations and Maintenance (O&M) personnel of the need for corrective action, thereby reducing energy production losses earlier relative to standard PV systems.

Panchal, Jeet↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extracting and Generating PV Soiling Profiles for Analysis, Forecasting, and Cleaning Optimization

The identification and prediction of the daily soiling profiles of a photovoltaic site is essential to plan the optimal cleaning schedule. In this article, we analyze and propose various methods to extract and generate photovoltaic soiling profiles, in order to improve the analysis and the forecast of the losses. New soiling rate extraction methods are proposed to reflect the seasonal variability of the soiling rates and, for this reason, are found to identify the most convenient cleaning day with the highest accuracy for the investigated sites. Also, we present an approach that could be used to predict future soiling losses through the implementation of stochastic weather generation algorithms whose ability to identify in advance the best cleaning schedule is also successfully tested. The methods presented in this article can optimize the operation and maintenance schedule and could make it possible, in the future, to predict soiling losses through analysis based only on environmental parameters, such as rainfall and particulate matter, without the need of long-term soiling data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Photovoltaic Module Characterization: Using Image Transformers for Current–Voltage Curve Prediction From Electroluminescence Images

Individual photovoltaic (PV) module health monitoring can be a daunting task for operation and maintenance of solar farms. Modules can be inspected through luminescence, thermal imaging, and current–voltage (I–V) curve analyzes for identification of damage and power loss. I–V curves provide easily interpretable data to determine module health as they directly provide electrical performance metrics. However, in order to obtain these curves, modules must be disconnected from the array and either removed to a solar simulator or characterized in situ with corrections for module temperature, the incident solar spectrum, and intensity. Luminescence or thermal images of a module are relatively easy to acquire in situ. Electroluminescence (EL) images highlight physical defects in the modules but do not provide easily interpretable features to correlate with electrical performance. This work presents a SWin transformer network to predict I–V curves for PV modules from their corresponding EL images. The predicted I–V curves allow the accurate prediction of the maximum power point (MPP), short-circuit current I sc , and open-circuit voltage V oc with a mean error less of than 1%. Comparing single diode model (SDM) parameters extracted from the predicted curves to those extracted from the true curves, the series resistance R s demonstrates a mean error of 5.19%, and the photocurrent I a mean error of 0.197%. The shunt resistance R sh and dark current Io parameters are predicted with larger errors because of their sensitivity to small changes in the I–V curve.

Byford, Brandon K. [New Mexico State Univ., Las Cr↗