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At least 361 records · Page 20

Fully Integral, Flexible Composite Driveshaft

An all-composite driveshaft incorporating integral flexible diaphragms was developed for prime contractor testing. This new approach makes obsolete the split lines required to attach metallic flex elements and either metallic or composite spacing tubes in current solutions. Subcritical driveshaft weights can be achieved that are half that of incumbent technology for typical rotary wing shaft lengths. Spacing tubes compose an integral part of the initial tooling but remain part of the finished shaft and control natural frequencies and torsional stability. A concurrently engineered manufacturing process and design for performance competes with incumbent solutions at significantly lower weight and with the probability of improved damage tolerance and fatigue life.

Lawrie, Duncan↗

The undetected error probability for shortened hamming codes

Hamming or shortened Hamming codes are widely used for error detection in data communications. For example, the CCITT (International Telegraph and Telephone Consultative Committee) recommendation X.25 for packet-switched data networks adopts a distance-4 cyclic Hamming code with 16 parity-check bits for error detection. The natural length of this code is n = 2(15)-1 = 32,767. In practice the length of a data packet is no more than a few thousand bits which is much shorter than the natural length of the code. Consequently, a shortened version of thecode is used. Often the length of a data packet varies, say from a few hundred bits to a few thousand bits, hence the code must be shortened by various degrees. Shortening affects the performance of the code. The error-detection performance of shortened Hamming codes, particularly the codes obtained from the distance-4 Hamming codes adopted by CCITT recommendation X.25, is investigated. A method for computing the probability of an undetected error is presented.

Costello, D. J., Jr.↗

Cometary Evolution: Clues on Physical Properties from Chondritic Interplanetary Dust Particles

The degree of diversity or similarity detected in comets depends primarily on the lifetimes of the individual cometary nuclei at the time of analysis. It is inherent in our understanding of cometary orbital dynamics and the seminal model of comet origins by Oort that cometary evolution is the natural order of events in our Solar System. Thus, predictions of cometary behaviour in terms of bulk physical, mineralogical or chemical parameters should contain an appreciation of temporal variation(s). Previously, Rietmeijer and Mackinnon developed mineralogical bases for the chemical evolution of cometary nuclei primarily with regard to the predominantly silicate fraction of comet nuclei. We suggested that alteration of solids in cometary nuclei should be expected and that indications of likely reactants and products can be derived from judicious comparison with terrestrial diagenetic environments which include hydrocryogenic and low-temperature aqueous alterations. In a further development of this concept, Rietmeijer provides indirect evidence for the formation of sulfides and oxides in comet nuclei. Furthermore, Rietmeijer noted that timescales for hydrocryogenic and low-temperature reactions involving liquid water are probably adequate for relatively mature comets, e.g. P/comet Halley. In this paper, we will address the evolution of comet nuclei physical parameters such as solid particle grain size, porosity and density. In natural environments, chemical evolution (e.g. mineral reactions) is often accompanied by changes in physical properties. These concurrent changes are well-documented in the terrestrial geological literature, especially in studies of sediment diagenesis and we suggest that similar basic principles apply within the upper few meters of active comet nuclei. The database for prediction of comet nuclei physical parameters is, in principle, the same as used for the proposition of chemical evolution. We use detailed mineralogical studies of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPS) as a guide to the likely constitution of mature comets traversing the inner Solar System. While there is, as yet, no direct proof that a specific sub-group or type of chondritic IDP is derived from a specific comet, it is clear that these particles are extraterrestrial in origin and that a certain portion of the interplanetary flux received by the Earth is cometary in origin. Two chondritic porous (CP) MPs, sample numbers W7010A2 and W7029Cl, from the Johnson Space Center Cosmic Dust Collection have been selected for this study of putative cometary physical parameters. This particular type of particle is considered a likely candidate for a cometary origin on the basis of mineralogy, bulk composition and morphology. While many IDPs have been subjected to intensive study over the past decade, we can develop a physical parameter model on only these two CP IDPs because few others have been studied in sufficient detail.

Rietmeijer, Frans J. M.↗

Cometary Evolution: Clues on Physical Properties from Chondritic Interplanetary Dust Particles

The degree of diversity or similarity detected in comets depends primarily on the lifetimes of the individual cometary nuclei at the time of analysis. It is inherent in our understanding of cometary orbital dynamics and the seminal model of comet origins that cometary evolution is the natural order of events in our Solar System. Thus, predictions of cometary behaviour in terms of bulk physical, mineralogical or chemical parameters should contain an appreciation of temporal variation(s). Previously, Rietmeijer and Mackinnon [1987] developed mineralogical bases for the chemical evolution of cometary nuclei primarily with regard to the predominantly silicate fraction of comet nuclei. We suggested that alteration of solids in cometary nuclei should be expected and that indications of likely reactants and products can be derived from judicious comparison with terrestrial diagenetic environments which include hydrocryogenic and low-temperature aqueous alterations. In a further development of this concept, Rietmeijer [1988] provides indirect evidence for the formation of sulfides and oxides in comet nuclei. Furthermore, Rietmeijer [1988] noted that timescales for hydrocryogenic and low-temperature reactions involving liquid water are probably adequate for relatively mature comets, e.g. P/comet Halley. In this paper, we will address the evolution of comet nuclei physical parameters such as solid particle grain size, porosity and density. In natural environments, chemical evolution (e.g. mineral reactions) is often accompanied by changes in physical properties. These concurrent changes are well-documented in the terrestrial geological literature, especially in studies of sediment diagenesis and we suggest that similar basic principles apply within the upper few meters of active comet nuclei. The database for prediction of comet nuclei physical parameters is, in principle, the same as used for the proposition of chemical evolution. We use detailed mineralogical studies of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPS) as a guide to the likely constitution of mature comets traversing the inner Solar System. While there is, as yet, no direct proof that a specific sub-group or type of chondritic IDP is derived from a specific comet, it is clear that these particles are extraterrestrial in origin and that a certain portion of the interplanetary flux received by the Earth is cometary in origin. Two chondritic porous (CP) IDPS, sample numbers W701OA2 and W7029CI, from the Johnson Space Center Cosmic Dust Collection have been selected for this study of putative cometary physical parameters. This particular type of particle is considered a likely candidate for a cometary origin on the basis of mineralogy, bulk composition and morphology. While many IDPs have been subjected to intensive study over the past decade, we can develop a physical parameter model on only these two CP IDPs because few others have been studied in sufficient detail.

Reitmeijer, Frans J. M.↗

Explicit 3D continuum fracture modeling with smooth particle hydrodynamics

Impact phenomena shaped our solar system. As usual for most solar system processes, the scales are far different than we can address directly in the laboratory. Impact velocities are often much higher than we can achieve, sizes are often vastly larger, and most impacts take place in an environment where the only gravitational force is the mutual pull of the impactors. The Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique has been applied in the past to the simulations of giant impacts. In these simulations, the colliding objects were so massive (at least a sizeable fraction of the Earth's mass) that material strength was negligible compared to gravity. This assumption can no longer be made when the bodies are much smaller. To this end, we have developed a 3D SPH code that includes a strength model to which we have added a von Mises yielding relation for stresses beyond the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. At the lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution. Following Grady and Kipp and Melosh et al., we introduce a state variable D ('damage'), 0 less than D less than 1, which expresses the local reduction in strength due to crack growth under tensile loading. Unfortunately for the hydrodynamics, Grady and Kipp's model predicts which fragments are the most probable ones and not the ones that are really formed. This means, for example, that if a given laboratory experiment is modeled, the fragment distribution obtained from the Grady-Kipp theory would be equivalent to a ensemble average over many realizations of the experiment. On the other hand, the hydrodynamics itself is explicit and evolves not an ensemble average but very specific fragments. Hence, there is a clear incompatibility with the deterministic nature of the hydrodynamics equations and the statistical approach of the Grady-Kipp dynamical fracture model. We remedy these shortcomings by making the incipient flaw distribution explicit, i.e., particles carry activation strains which are distributed at random with a probability of occurrence given by the Weibull distribution. If the local principal axis strain exceeds this limit, damage starts to grow. By growing explicit cracks together with statistical cracks (damage) at the sub-particle scale, we ensure that material strength and fragmentation is independent of model resolution. We tested our scheme by simulating laboratory impact experiments on basalt spheres.

Benz, W.↗

EdgeAI: Machine learning via direct attached accelerator for streaming data processing at high shot rate x-ray free-electron lasers

We present a case for low batch-size inference with the potential for adaptive training of a lean encoder model. We do so in the context of a paradigmatic example of machine learning as applied in data acquisition at high data velocity scientific user facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source-II x-ray Free-Electron Laser. We discuss how a low-latency inference model operating at the data acquisition edge can capitalize on the naturally stochastic nature of such sources. We simulate the method of attosecond angular streaking to produce representative results whereby simulated input data reproduce high-resolution ground truth probability distributions. By minimizing the mean-squared error between the decoded output of the latent representation and the ground truth distributions, we ensure that the encoding layers and resulting latent representation maintains full fidelity for any downstream task, be it classification or regression. We present throughput results for data-parallel inference of various batch sizes, some with throughput exceeding 100 k images per second. We also show in situ training below 10 s per epoch for the full encoder–decoder model as would be relevant for streaming and adaptive real-time data production at our nation’s scientific light sources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Permanent magnetic trapping

It is shown that the global nature of trapped particle motion in phase space makes it entirely plausible that particles with pitch angles near 90 deg are trapped for extremely long times, probably indefinitely. The long observed lifetimes of trapped particles can immediately be accounted for by this former population. For particles with low pitch angles an 'overstability' develops which serves to produce rapid variations in pitch angle and, presumably, random walk into the loss cone.

Michel, F. C.↗

Meteorites from recent amor-type orbits

We report here the discovery of a recent meteorite shower in Antarctica, the members of which have very high natural thermoluminescence levels. It is apparent from these data that the shower has been on Earth only a short time (approximately 1000 years) and the meteorite probably came to Earth through rapid (less than 10 exp 5 years) evolution from an orbit with perihelion greater than 1.1 AU, similar to Amor asteroids. Only a very small number of meteorites, including a few modern falls, appear to have had similar orbital histories.

Benoit, P. H.↗

Stochastic charging of dust grains in planetary rings: Diffusion rates and their effects on Lorentz resonances

Dust grains in planetary rings acquire stochastically fluctuating electric charges as they orbit through any corotating magnetospheric plasma. Here we investigate the nature of this stochastic charging and calculate its effect on the Lorentz resonance (LR). First we model grain charging as a Markov process, where the transition probabilities are identified as the ensemble-averaged charging fluxes due to plasma pickup and photoemission. We determine the distribution function P(t;N), giving the probability that a grain has N excess charges at time t. The autocorrelation function tau(sub q) for the strochastic charge process can be approximated by a Fokker-Planck treatment of the evolution equations for P(t; N). We calculate the mean square response to the stochastic fluctuations in the Lorentz force. We find that transport in phase space is very small compared to the resonant increase in amplitudes due to the mean charge, over the timescale that the oscillator is resonantly pumped up. Therefore the stochastic charge variations cannot break the resonant interaction; locally, the Lorentz resonance is a robust mechanism for the shaping of etheral dust ring systems. Slightly stronger bounds on plasma parameters are required when we consider the longer transit times between Lorentz resonances.

Schaffer, L.↗

Radiative and Nonradiative Transitions of the Rare-Earth Ions Tm(3+) and Ho(3+) in Y3AI5O12 and LiYF4

The optical spectra of rare earth ions in solids arise primarily from electric and magnetic dipole transitions between stark split multiplets of the 4f(sup N) electronic configuration. Electric dipole transitions are parity forbidden between levels of the 4f(sup N) configuration, while those of magnetic dipole origin are allowed. It is known from experiment, however, that the significant contributions to the intensities of most transitions are electric dipole in nature. Judd and Ofelt developed the theory of forced electric dipole transitions of rare-earth ions. This study is devoted to determining electric dipole transition probabilities and branching ratios for Tm(3+) and Ho(3+) ions in Yttrium Aluminum Garnet (YAG) and Yttrium Lithium Fluoride (YLF) using the theory of Judd and Ofelt. The radiative rates determined from the Judd-Ofelt analysis are used with measured lifetimes to find nonradiative rates of relaxation.

Walsh, Brian M.↗

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗

L'CO/LFIR Relations with CO Rotational Ladders of Galaxies Across the Herschel SPIRE Archive

We present a catalog of all CO (carbon monoxide) (J (total angular momentum quantum number) equals 1-0 through J equals 13-12), [CI], and [NII] lines available from extragalactic spectra from the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) archive combined with observations of the low-J CO lines from the literature and from the Arizona Radio Observatory. This work examines the relationships between L (sub FIR (Far Infra Red)), L prime (sub CO), and L (sub CO) / L (sub CO, 1-0). We also present a new method for estimating probability distribution functions (PDFs) from marginal signal-to-noise ratio Herschel FTS spectra, which takes into account the instrumental "ringing" and the resulting highly correlated nature of the spectra. The slopes of Log (L (sub FIR)) versus Log (L prime (sub CO)) are linear for all mid- to high-J CO lines. The mid- to high-J CO luminosity relative to CO J equals 1-0 increases with increasing L (sub FIR), indicating higher excitement of the molecular gas, though these ratios do not exceed approximately 100. The luminosities relative to CO J equals 1-0 remain relatively at from J equals 6-5 through J equals13-2, across many orders of magnitude of L (sub FIR). Qualitative comparisons to current theoretical models do not match these flat SLED (spectral line energy distributions) shapes, indicating the need for more comprehensive modeling of the excitation processes of warm molecular gas in nearby galaxies.

Submillimeter Data↗

Non-scalar uncertainty: Uncertainty in dynamic systems

The following point is stated throughout the paper: dynamic systems are usually subject to uncertainty, be it the unavoidable quantic uncertainty when working with sufficiently small scales or when working in large scales uncertainty can be allowed by the researcher in order to simplify the problem, or it can be introduced by nonlinear interactions. Even though non-quantic uncertainty can generally be dealt with by using the ordinary probability formalisms, it can also be studied with the proposed non-scalar formalism. Thus, non-scalar uncertainty is a more general theoretical framework giving insight into the nature of uncertainty and providing a practical tool in those cases in which scalar uncertainty is not enough, such as when studying highly nonlinear dynamic systems. This paper's specific contribution is the general concept of non-scalar uncertainty and a first proposal for a methodology. Applications should be based upon this methodology. The advantage of this approach is to provide simpler mathematical models for prediction of the system states. Present conventional tools for dealing with uncertainty prove insufficient for an effective description of some dynamic systems. The main limitations are overcome abandoning ordinary scalar algebra in the real interval (0, 1) in favor of a tensor field with a much richer structure and generality. This approach gives insight into the interpretation of Quantum Mechanics and will have its most profound consequences in the fields of elementary particle physics and nonlinear dynamic systems. Concepts like 'interfering alternatives' and 'discrete states' have an elegant explanation in this framework in terms of properties of dynamic systems such as strange attractors and chaos. The tensor formalism proves especially useful to describe the mechanics of representing dynamic systems with models that are closer to reality and have relatively much simpler solutions. It was found to be wise to get an approximate solution to an accurate model than to get a precise solution to a model constrained by simplifying assumptions. Precision has a very heavy cost in present physical models, but this formalism allows the trade between uncertainty and simplicity. It was found that modeling reality sometimes requires that state transition probabilities should be manipulated as nonscalar quantities, finding at the end that there is always a transformation to get back to scalar probability.

Martinez, Salvador Gutierrez↗

Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

Anderson, Leif↗

Ensembles of Metastable States Govern Heterogeneous Catalysis on Dynamic Interfaces

Heterogeneous catalysis is at the heart of chemical industry. Being able to tune and design efficient catalysts for processes of interest is of an utmost importance, and for this, the molecular-level understanding of heterogeneous catalysts is the first step, and indeed a prime focus of the modern catalysis research. For a long time, a single most thermodynamically stable structure of the catalytic interface attained in reaction conditions had been envisioned as the reactive phase. However, some catalytic interfaces continue to undergo structural dynamics in the steady state, triggered by high temperatures, pressures, and binding and changing reagents. Among particularly dynamic interfaces are such widely-used catalysts as crystalline and amorphous surfaced supporting (sub-)nano metallic clusters. Recently, it became clear that this dynamic fluxionality causes the supported clusters to populate many distinct structural and stoichiometric states in catalytic conditions. Hence, the catalytic interface should be viewed as an evolving statistical ensemble of many (not one) structures. As such, every member in the ensemble contributes to the properties of the catalyst differently, and in proportion to its probability to be populated. This new notion flips the established paradigm and calls for new theory, modeling approaches, operando measurements, and updated design strategies. The statistical ensemble nature of surface-supported sub-nano cluster catalysts can be exemplified by oxide-supported and adsorbate-covered Pt, Pd, Cu, CuPd clusters, catalytic toward oxidative and non-oxidative dehydrogenation. They have access to a variety of 3D and quasi-2D shapes. The compositions of their thermal ensembles are dependent on the cluster size, leading to size-specific catalytic activities and the famous “every atom counts” phenomenon. The support and adsorbates affect catalyst structures, and state of the reacting species causes the ensemble to change in every reaction intermediate. The most stable member of the ensemble dominates the thermodynamic properties of the corresponding intermediate, whereas the kinetics can be determined by more active but less populated metastable catalyst states, and that suggests that many earlier studies might have overlooked the actual active sites. Both effects depend on the relative time-scales of catalyst restructuring and reaction dynamics. The catalyst may routinely operate off-equilibrium. Ensemble phenomena lead to surprising exceptions from established rules of catalysis, such as scaling relations, and Arrhenius behavior. Catalyst deactivation is also an ensemble property, and its extent of mitigation can be predicted through the new paradigm. These findings were enabled by advances in theory, such as global optimization and subsequent utilization of multiple local minima, and pathways sampling, as well as operando catalyst characterization. The fact that the per-site and per-species resolution is needed for the description and predicting of catalyst properties gives theory the central role in catalysis research, as most experiments provide ensemble-average information and cannot detect the crucial minority species that may be responsible for the catalytic activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. Volume 2: SRB water impact Monte Carlo computer program, user's manual

The HD 220 program was created as part of the space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. The model was generated to investigate the damage to SRB components under water impact loads. The random nature of environmental parameters, such as ocean waves and wind conditions, necessitates estimation of the relative frequency of occurrence for these parameters. The nondeterministic nature of component strengths also lends itself to probabilistic simulation. The Monte Carlo technique allows the simultaneous perturbation of multiple independent parameters and provides outputs describing the probability distribution functions of the dependent parameters. This allows the user to determine the required statistics for each output parameter.

Source record↗

UV stars and the interstellar medium - A statistical time-dependent model

A statistical time-dependent model for the effects on the interstellar gas of the ionizing radiation from UV stars is presented. The radiation from the stars is assumed to be emitted as monochromatic bursts at random times and locations. The thermal and ionization history of the gas is followed in a Monte Carlo simulation. Probability densities as well as mean values for the ionization fraction, temperature, and other observable quantities are derived. The fluctuations in observed quantities due to the stochastic nature of the model are estimated. Models of the interstellar medium perpendicular to the galactic plane are developed and compared with observations. The action of the UV stars can explain the bulk properties of the interstellar gas toward the galactic poles and is consistent with the Copernicus satellite observations toward lambda Scorpii.

Lyon, J.↗