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Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.
Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.
Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.
Plug-and-play priors (PnP) is an image reconstruction framework that utilizes an image denoiser as an imaging prior. Unlike traditional regularized inversion, PnP does not require the prior to be expressible in the form of a regularization function. This flexibility enables PnP algorithms to exploit the most effective image denoisers, leading to their state-of-the-art performance in various imaging tasks. However, many powerful denoisers, such as the ones based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), do not have tunable parameters that would allow controlling their influence within PnP. To address this issue, in this paper, we introduce a scaling parameter that adjusts the magnitude of the denoiser input and output. We theoretical justify the denoiser scaling from the perspectives of proximal optimization, statistical estimation, and consensus equilibrium. Finally, we provide numerical experiments demonstrating the ability of denoiser scaling to systematically improve the performance of PnP for denoising CNN priors that do not have explicitly tunable parameters.
Visualization—the use of visual elements to explore data, form hypotheses, or convey conclusions—is an integral part of the scientific process. Starting from an initial exploration of new data to illustrating outcomes for the general public, visualization is one of the most intuitive and powerful modes of communication. With the explosion of new data sources and types, unprecedented volumes of data, and new technologies, such as virtual reality (VR) and artificial intelligence (AI), visualization has become increasingly essential but also ever more challenging. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) sponsored a Basic Research Needs workshop in January 2022 to understand the major opportunities and grand challenges in visualization tools and technologies for scientific computing as well as for DOE-relevant applications and goals in general. The workshop identified five priority research directions (PRDs) for visualization to support scientific discovery, decision making, and communication. The first three PRDs describe interconnected research themes addressing the need for new techniques to deal with complex data, uncertainty, and interpretability (PRD 1); the need for scalable and interoperable software stacks (PRD 2); and the challenges and opportunities inherent in new technologies, such as VR, cloud, or exascale computing (PRD 3). The remaining two PRDs describe foundational research themes that recognize the potential of visualizations to provide equitable access to information and to strengthen the scientific discourse (PRD 4); and the need to consider human factors when designing visualizations (PRD 5). Collectively, these PRDs form the pillars for a coherent, long-term research and development strategy in Visualization for Scientific Discovery, Decision-Making, and Communication in the context of the Office of Science’s mission scope.
Abstract Motivation The classic multispecies coalescent (MSC) model provides the means for theoretical justification of incomplete lineage sorting-aware species tree inference methods. This has motivated an extensive body of work on phylogenetic methods that are statistically consistent under MSC. One such particularly popular method is ASTRAL, a quartet-based species tree inference method. Novel studies suggest that ASTRAL also performs well when given multi-locus gene trees in simulation studies. Further, Legried et al. recently demonstrated that ASTRAL is statistically consistent under the gene duplication and loss model (GDL). GDL is prevalent in evolutionary histories and is the first core process in the powerful duplication-loss-coalescence evolutionary model (DLCoal) by Rasmussen and Kellis. Results In this work, we prove that ASTRAL is statistically consistent under the general DLCoal model. Therefore, our result supports the empirical evidence from the simulation-based studies. More broadly, we prove that the quartet-based inference approach is statistically consistent under DLCoal. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
This project develops a Bayesian optimization approach to extracting insights from Z Machine experimental data to determine if and how these insights can be used to extrapolate to a larger facility. The primary goal is to address the scientific challenge of informing how confidently experimental conditions can be predicted on a next generation facility, the design of which requires the reliable extrapolation of current high energy density technologies to regimes yet unobserved, except by costly high-fidelity computational models. Maximizing the use of presently available data and understanding how it informs future endeavors is critically important to enable transformative pulsed power and the science of extreme conditions. We explore a Bayesian optimization approach to experimental design which combines information theory, experimental data, and computational modeling to explore how information gain can be maximized.
Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) are widely used across United States in combined cycle power plants to recover waste heat from the gas turbine (GT). HRSGs are used either to generate electricity or to produce process steam for industrial applications. The primary components of HRSG consists of a duct and a heat exchanger (HX). It is known across the power industry that the high temperature oxidation and ensuing exfoliation problem is a major cause for the damage of HX materials of HRSG. Alloys and/or coatings that can prevent or mitigate oxidation are very expensive, therefore they must be used or applied on the select regions of the HX tubes where the tendency of oxide formation is the highest. The main goal of this project is to identify such regions through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Therefore, in this work, we developed a CFD framework using commercial code StarCCM+ for the prediction of the fluid flow and heat transfer in a HRSG and associated oxidation inside the tubes of the HX. The developed CFD framework was verified and validated with experimental data before deployment. We also developed an innovative method to model the effect of the fins on the heat transfer and the pressure drop using a porous media model (PMM) approach to keep the mesh size within reasonable limits. After validation, we performed high-fidelity CFD simulations of a real-scale HRSG using the PMM, with High Performance Computing (HPC) resources of ORNL. From the simulation results, we acquired oxide thickness maps for all the tubes of the select HX sections of HRSG prone to oxidation. These oxide maps can inform regions of the HX tubes that requires oxide-resistant coatings, thereby guiding engineers for cost-efficient manufacturing of the HX that can combat oxidation in HRSGs.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused substantially more infections, deaths, and economic disruptions than the 2002-2003 SARSCoV. The key to understanding SARS-CoV-2's higher infectivity lies partly in its host receptor recognition mechanism. Experiments show that the human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) protein, which serves as the primary receptor for both CoVs, binds to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of CoV-2's spike protein stronger than SARS-CoV's spike RBD. The molecular basis for this difference in binding affinity, however, remains unexplained from X-ray structures. To go beyond insights gained from X-ray structures and investigate the role of thermal fluctuations in structure, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics simulations. Microseconds-long simulations reveal that while CoV and CoV-2 spike-ACE2 interfaces have similar conformational binding modes, CoV-2 spike interacts with ACE2 via a larger combinatorics of polar contacts, and on average, makes 45% more polar contacts. Correlation analysis and thermodynamic calculations indicate that these differences in the density and dynamics of polar contacts arise from differences in spatial arrangements of interfacial residues, and dynamical coupling between interfacial and non-interfacial residues. Furthermore, these results recommend that ongoing efforts to design spike-ACE2 peptide blockers will benefit from incorporating dynamical information as well as allosteric coupling effects.
The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR, pronounced winter) is a Python package designed to simulate and analyze resilience of water distribution networks. Here, a network refers to the collection of pipes, pumps, valves, junctions, tanks, and reservoirs that make up a water distribution system. WNTR has an application programming interface (API) that is flexible and allows for changes to the network structure and operations, along with simulation of disruptive incidents and recovery actions. WNTR is based upon EPANET, which is a tool to simulate the movement and fate of drinking water constituents within distribution systems. Users are encouraged to be familiar with the use of EPANET and/or should have background knowledge in hydraulics and pressurized pipe network modeling before using WNTR. EPANET has a graphical user interface that might be a useful tool to facilitate the visualization of the network and the associated analysis results. Information on EPANET can be found at https://www.epa.gov/water-research/epanet. WNTR is compatible with EPANET 2.00.12 [Ross00]. In addition, users should have experience using Python, including the installation of additional Python packages. General information on Python can be found at https://www.python.org/.
Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.
U.S. stakeholders from academia, industry, and government recognize the need for the United States to cement itself as a technology leader in the coming quantum economy. Our national investments in quantum technology must keep pace with those of other countries to secure a significant share of future markets and the associated economic opportunities. This spotlight document showcases DOE's efforts in the arena of Quantum Information Science & Technology, highlighting significant public-private engagements, DOE programs, and funding opportunities designed to keep America at the fore of this rapidly developing suite of technologies.
Abstract Motivation The Gene Network Estimation Tool (GNET) is designed to build gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from transcriptomic gene expression data with a probabilistic graphical model. The data preprocessing, model construction and visualization modules of the original GNET software were developed on different programming platforms, which were inconvenient for users to deploy and use. Results Here, we present GNET2, an improved implementation of GNET as an integrated R package. GNET2 provides more flexibility for parameter initialization and regulatory module construction based on the core iterative modeling process of the original algorithm. The data exchange interface of GNET2 is handled within an R session automatically. Given the growing demand for regulatory network reconstruction from transcriptomic data, GNET2 offers a convenient option for GRN inference on large datasets. Availability and implementation The source code of GNET2 is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/GNET2. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
The characterization of the land surface in models is critical for robust estimation of the water cycle and associated extremes. Land use determines water demand, and land cover affects water availability. The interaction between water demand and availability is the key determinant of whether systems are resilient to variability in the overall water cycle. Furthermore, activities such as irrigation and deforestation or afforestation may influence regional to global precipitation patterns, depending on the extent of the activity. Thus this proposed work aims to address the following question: How does integrated land use/cover data and improved land use/cover projection, as informed by machine learning approaches, better resolve human-earth system resilience to water cycle variability and extremes?
The VENUS Neutron Imaging instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source has gone through a multitude of optical design changes since its original conception. The goal of this report is to quantify the performance of the most recent optical design and provide insight into potential improvements to this design as needed to ensure optimal performance of the instrument. The results will come in the form of a refined and well developed simulation that provides as best a representation of the performance of the instrument as reasonably achievable. This simulation will be available in a repository alongside relevant simulation output needed to inform any future decisions on the design of the instrument.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) held its third virtual workshop on Semiconductor R&D for Energy Efficiency on August 11-13, 2021. This public workshop – titled “Manufacturing and Integration Challenges for Analog and Neuromorphic Computing” – brought together more than 180 leading scientific and technical experts to identify challenges and opportunities to improve manufacturing capabilities for analog and neuromorphic computing architectures to significantly increase energy efficiency of microelectronic devices. The workshop featured perspectives of researchers from national laboratories, universities, government agencies, and industry with expertise in novel and emerging devices, processes, and metrology and characterization. This workshop is intended to inform an AMO research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) plan to significantly reduce semiconductor energy use by 2030. It was co-sponsored by the Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC) and the DOE Office of Science’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR).
The field of Quantum Information Science (QIS) is a rapidly growing field, with an expanding number of potential applications that explore the capabilities of currently available noisy quantum devices and promise to eventually solve problems beyond anything that classical systems can accomplish. In the past few years, this expectation for transformational applications has translated to a lot of attention, both from the media (reaching the scientific community and the general public) and the government funding agencies and technology industry.