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At least 361 records · Page 20

Spatially Complete Global Spectral Surface Albedos: Value-Added Datasets Derived from Terra MODIS Land Products

Land surface albedo is an important parameter in describing the radiative properties of the earth s surface as it represents the amount of incoming solar radiation that is reflected from the surface. The amount and type of vegetation of the surface dramatically alters the amount of radiation that is reflected; for example, croplands that contain leafy vegetation will reflect radiation very differently than blacktop associated with urban areas. In addition, since vegetation goes through a growth, or phenological, cycle, the amount of radiation that is reflected changes over the course of a year. As a result, albedo is both temporally and spatially dependant upon global location as there is a distribution of vegetated surface types and growing conditions. Land surface albedo is critical for a wide variety of earth system research projects including but not restricted to remote sensing of atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties from space, ground-based analysis of aerosol optical properties from surface-based sun/sky radiometers, biophysically-based land surface modeling of the exchange of energy, water, momentum, and carbon for various land use categories, and surface energy balance studies. These projects require proper representation of the surface albedo s spatial, spectral, and temporal variations, however, these representations are often lacking in datasets prior to the latest generation of land surface albedo products.

Moody, Eric G.↗

Leaf 13 C data constrain the uncertainty of the carbon dynamics of temperate forest ecosystems

Stable carbon isotope discrimination occurred in plant biophysical and biogeochemical processes can help understand plant physiology and soil biogeochemistry with respect to carbon cycling. Here, we incorporated the photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination into a process-based land surface model (iTEM) to test if stable carbon isotope composition (δ 13 C) can impose additional constraint on model parameters. Sequential data assimilation was implemented at six eddy covariance flux tower sites using carbon flux observations including gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with and without considering foliar δ 13 C (δ 13 C f ) measurement constraints, respectively. Our model-data fusion showed that δ 13 C f can provide useful constraint on photosynthetic (V cmax25 , the maximum rate of carboxylation at 25°C) and stomatal (g1, the slope of stomatal function) parameters as well as the posterior carbon fluxes. When including δ 13 C f measurement, g1 spatially varies among the six sites and is significantly correlated with annual precipitation. We incorporated the statistical relationship between g1 and annual precipitation into iTEM, which is then used to quantify the regional carbon dynamic in temperate forest ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere. Compared with the simulation only conditioned on carbon flux observations, regional carbon flux estimations performed slightly better against the FLUXCOM products and the uncertainties of modeled carbon fluxes were reduced by 27%. Our study demonstrated that δ 13 C f data constrains carbon flux uncertainties across space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. The importance of carbon (C)–nutrient interactions to the prediction of future C uptake has long been recognized. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 1 is one of the few land surface models that include both N and P cycling and limitation (ELMv1-CNP). Here we provide a global-scale evaluation of ELMv1-CNP using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. Compared to simulations with optimal P availability, simulations with ELMv1-CNP produce better performance, particularly for simulated biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and global net C balance. We also show ELMv1-CNP-simulated N and P cycling is in good agreement with data-driven estimates. We compared the ELMv1-CNP-simulated response to CO2 enrichment with meta-analysis of observations from similar manipulation experiments. We show that ELMv1-CNP is able to capture the field-observed responses for photosynthesis, growth, and LAI. We investigated the role of P limitation in the historical balance and show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation, as the historical CO2 fertilization effect was reduced by 20 % and C emission due to land use and land cover change was 11 % lower when P limitation was considered. Our simulations suggest that the introduction of P cycle dynamics and C–N–P coupling will likely have substantial consequences for projections of future C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating three evapotranspiration estimates from model of different complexity over China using the ILAMB benchmarking system

The land surface models range in complexity of terrestrial evapotranspiration, yet it is unknown how model complexity translates to accuracy of modeled evapotranspiration estimates. Here, we use the International Land Model Benchmarking system to assess ET estimates from three models of varying complexity driven by the same forcing datasets: an earth system model, a terrestrial biosphere model, and a stand-alone ET model. The performance assessment includes both temporal and spatial evaluation, and different plant functional types across China. Our results indicate that the most complex model, an earth system model, performed best against the benchmarking datasets and metrics. Terrestrial biosphere model performed best in simulating inter-annual variability of ET, while earth system model performed best in simulating the seasonal cycle. The more complex models (earth system model and terrestrial biosphere model) perform better in forest, shrub and crop ecosystems, while the simpler model (stand-alone ET model) perform better in grass ecosystems. Our study demonstrates the impact of model complexity on ET estimates and highlights directions for future ET model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computationally Tractable High-Fidelity Representation of Global Hydrology in ESMs via Machine Learning Approaches to Scale-Bridging

Focal Areas: This paper responds primarily to Focal Area 2, focusing on AI techniques to improve model fidelity. Science Challenge: “Hyperresolution” [1, 2] land surface models (LSMs) running at far higher resolution than typically employed in global Earth system models (ESMs) can help answer critical questions about the water cycle and associated ecosystem and biogeochemical feedbacks. Even with all foreseeable advances in computing power and efficient solver algorithms, however, employing hyperresolution LSMs inside ESMs for studies of long-term global climate is not computationally feasible. Instead, we argue for incorporating the fidelity of hyperresolution LSMs only where and when it is needed by using machine learning approaches to scale-bridging.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Remote Sensing of Lineage Functional Types for Modeling and Monitoring Biodiversity

Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to continuously scale plant function and plant diversity information from landscape to global extents. Numerous studies have indicated that VSWIR (400-2500 nm) reflectance properties of vegetation capture evolutionarily conserved biochemical, structural, and other functional attributes of plant species. Spectral properties conserved in plants provide the opportunity to both 1) aggregate species into lineages with improved classification accuracy and 2) link those lineages directly to plant traits. Full realization of this goal will enable parameterization of Land Surface Models (LSMs) with remotely sensed information, e.g., canopy nitrogen, and better representations of biodiversity and functional diversity in biogeographic studies. In this study, we use hyperspectral AVIRIS data from the 2013 HyspIRI campaign over the Southern Sierra Nevada, California flight box to investigate the potential for incorporating evolutionary thinking into landcover classification. We link the airborne hyperspectral data with vegetation plot data from roughly 1372 surveys and a phylogeny representing 1361 species. We aggregate species into lineages ranging from species level groups down to similar number of Plant Functional Types as often used in LSMs. We assessed the ability of Random Forest and Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis to discriminate across these different phylogenetic scales and determine the optimal number of lineages to classify. Although there are some temporal and spatial differences in our training data, our best approaches achieved moderate classification accuracy (Kappa > 0.65). Given an optimal number of lineages, we explored approaches to improve classifications including machine learning and unmixing approaches. This work suggests that lineage-based methods may be a promising way to leverage the huge amounts of data that will come from high resolution and high return interval hyperspectral data planned for the Surface Biology and Geology mission with sparsely sampled existing ground-based ecological data.

Hyperspectral↗

Evaluating the Utility of Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals over Irrigated Areas and the Ability of Land Data Assimilation Methods to Correct for Unmodeled Processes

Earth's land surface is characterized by tremendous natural heterogeneity and human-engineered modifications, both of which are challenging to represent in land surface models. Satellite remote sensing is often the most practical and effective method to observe the land surface over large geographical areas. Agricultural irrigation is an important human-induced modification to natural land surface processes, as it is pervasive across the world and because of its significant influence on the regional and global water budgets. In this article, irrigation is used as an example of a human-engineered, often unmodeled land surface process, and the utility of satellite soil moisture retrievals over irrigated areas in the continental US is examined. Such retrievals are based on passive or active microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, WindSat and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). The analysis suggests that the skill of these retrievals for representing irrigation effects is mixed, with ASCAT-based products somewhat more skillful than SMOS and AMSR2 products. The article then examines the suitability of typical bias correction strategies in current land data assimilation systems when unmodeled processes dominate the bias between the model and the observations. Using a suite of synthetic experiments that includes bias correction strategies such as quantile mapping and trained forward modeling, it is demonstrated that the bias correction practices lead to the exclusion of the signals from unmodeled processes, if these processes are the major source of the biases. It is further shown that new methods are needed to preserve the observational information about unmodeled processes during data assimilation.

land data↗

An ensemble of 48 physically perturbed model estimates of the 1/8° terrestrial water budget over the conterminous United States, 1980–2015

Terrestrial water budget (TWB) data over large domains are of high interest for various hydrological applications. Spatiotemporally continuous and physically consistent estimations of TWB rely on land surface models (LSMs). As an augmentation of the operational North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) four-LSM ensemble, this paper describes a dataset simulated from an ensemble of 48 physics configurations of the Noah LSM with multi-physics options (Noah-MP). The 48 Noah-MP physics configurations are selected to give a representative cross-section of commonly used LSMs for parameterizing runoff, atmospheric surface layer turbulence, soil moisture limitation on photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance. The dataset spans from 1980 to 2015 over the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a monthly temporal resolution and a 1/8° spatial resolution. The dataset variables include total evapotranspiration and its constituents (canopy evaporation, soil evaporation, and transpiration), runoff (the surface and subsurface components), as well as terrestrial water storage (snow water equivalent, four-layer soil water content from the surface down to 2 m, and the groundwater storage anomaly). The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7109816. Evaluations carried out in this study and previous investigations show that the ensemble per forms well in reproducing the observed terrestrial water storage, snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff. Noah-MP complements the NLDAS models well, and adding Noah-MP consistently improves the NLDAS es timations of the above variables in most areas of CONUS. Besides, the perturbed-physics ensemble facilitates the identification of model deficiencies. The parameterizations of shallow snow, spatially varying groundwater dynamics, and near-surface atmospheric turbulence should be improved in future model versions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Storm and Annual Time Scale Hydrological Data for the Russian River Watershed 1996-2022

These files contains observed and simulated hydrological data (discharge, precipitation) that have been aggregated to the storm-event scale and to the annual time scale for the Russian River Watershed (RRW), California. Observed data are obtained from 12 different USGS hydrological stations located throughout the watershed, and discharge is simulated using the GR5H hourly hydrological model. Precipitation data are obtained from the NASA NLDAS NOAH Community Land Surface Model. All simulated and observed discharge are aggregated to the storm and annual time scales. We investigated changes in watershed hydrological conditions in the Russian River Watershed, a Mediterranean, drought prone, wildfire-adapted ecosystem, following eleven wildfires that occurred from 2017-2020. We ask two research questions: 1) How do interacting wildfire events, drought, and atmospheric rivers impact hydrological conditions of the watershed and in particular streamflow?, and 2) What percentage of new and/or cumulative wildfire disturbance is required to initiate hydrological change? We hypothesize that sub-watersheds of the RRW Mediterranean ecoregion have not burned beyond an intrinsic, and still unknown, threshold required to initiate change. Using a series of paired burned/unburned catchments nested within the larger watershed, we examined temporal and spatial patterns of pre-and-post wildfire water hydrology using a rainfall runoff hydrological model compared with data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗

Developing and testing capabilities for simulating cases with heterogeneous land/water surfaces in a novel atmospheric large eddy simulation code

Large eddy simulations (LES) are the primary computational tool used to simulate high Reynolds number three-dimensional turbulent flows. In the context of earth system sciences, particularly atmospheric science, LES are uniquely able to resolve the scales of atmospheric motion that are key for building process-level understanding of boundary layer turbulence, atmosphere-surface interaction, clouds, and cloud-aerosol-chemistry interaction, and are a core limited-area modeling capability. Increasing demands are being placed on LES code bases as growing high performance computing resources allow LES to address a wider range of scientific problems. In addition, LES are emerging as a source of high-quality machine learning training data. These demands necessitate an agile and extensible code base that allows the model to quickly adapt to emergent needs. However, LES have largely relied on legacy Fortran code bases that lack flexibility. A new, Python-based LES capability called Predicting INteractions of Aerosol and Clouds in Large Eddy Simulation (PINACLES) has been developed as part of the Department of Energy’s Earth System Model Development (ESMD) program area’s Enabling Aerosol-cloud interactions at Global convection-permitting scalES (EAGLES) project. PINACLES was developed from the ground up with a philosophy of maximizing scientific throughput, by attempting to optimize for both model throughput and software extensibility. The initial development of PINACLES delivered a state-of-the-art idealized LES capability solving the non-hydrostatic anelastic equations of motion with doubly periodic boundary conditions and idealized homogenous surface boundary conditions. Here we provide a final report on the outcomes of a fiscal year 2021 Seed Laboratory Directed Research Project that extended PINACLES in two key ways. First, PINACLES was coupled to a state-of-the-art land surface model enabling it to simulate spatially inhomogeneous land-atmosphere interactions that are known to control key atmospheric processes. Second, the dynamical core of PINACLES was modified to permit non-periodic boundary conditions. This model enhancement enables simulation of realistic cases with boundary conditions prescribed from atmospheric reanalysis and enables nested simulations conducted on a hierarchy of computational domains with increasing resolution. Together, these extensions to PINACLES make it a formidable modeling capability and expand its potential application to diverse components of DOE’s atmospheric science portfolio.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Continuing Evolution of Land Surface Parameterizations

Land surface models (LSMs) play a critical role in the simulation of climate, for they determine the character of a large fraction of the atmosphere's lower boundary. The LSM partitions the net radiative energy at the land surface into sensible heat, latent heat, and energy storage, and it partitions incident precipitation water into evaporation, runoff, and water storage. Numerous modeling experiments and the existing (though very scant) observational evidence suggest that variations in these partitionings can feed back on the atmospheric processes that induce them. This land-atmosphere feedback can in turn have a significant impact on the generation of continental precipitation. For this and other reasons (including the role of the land surface in converting various atmospheric quantities, such as precipitation, into quantities of perhaps higher societal relevance, such as runoff), many modeling groups are placing a high emphasis on improving the treatment of land surface processes in their models. LSMs have evolved substantially from the original bucket model of Manabe et al. This evolution, which is still ongoing, has been documented considerably. The present paper also takes a look at the evolution of LSMs. The perspective here, though, is different - the evolution is considered strictly in terms of the 'balance' between the formulations of evaporation and runoff processes. The paper will argue that a proper balance is currently missing, largely due to difficulties in treating subgrid variability in soil moisture and its impact on the generation of runoff.

Koster, Randal↗

A Comparative Study of Available Water in the Major River Basins of the World

Numerous large river basins of the world have few and irregular observations of the components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle with the exception of stream gauges at a few locations and at the outlet along with sparsely distributed rain gauges. Using observations from satellite sensors and output from global land surface models, it is possible to study these under-observed river basins. With populations greater than a billion people, some of these rivers (e.g., the Ganga-Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Nile and the Mekong) are the economic engines of the countries they transect, yet thorough assessment of their flow dynamics and variability in regard to water resource management is still lacking. In this paper, we use soil moisture (0-2m) and surface runoff from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), evapotranspiration, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and total water storage anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to examine variability of individual water balance components. To this end, understanding the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability and the spatial variability of the water balance components in the major river basins of the world will help to plan for improved management of water resources for the future.

GLDAS↗

Definition of a Technology Validation Mission for P-band Reflectometry using Signals of Opportunity

Root-Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) (moisture profile in the top meter of soil) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (total snow pack water content) are identified as priority target variables in the ESAS 2017 decadal survey [1] with critical roles in hydrology and water management. RZSM estimates are vital for understanding multiple Earth system processes and forecasting (for example, droughts [2]). Simultaneous knowledge of surface and RZSM could enable a breakthrough in estimating key unobserved hydrologic fluxes and reduce uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), carbon balance [3] discharge estimates, and crop yield forecasts [4] .With the high albedo and insulating properties of snow, monitoring, SWE accumulation would provide a key constraint on the potential runoff during spring ablation while monitoring SWE disappearance rates would provide a key constraint on SWE partition into runoff vs. infiltration/recharge. [5] demonstrated that knowledge of early-spring SWE generally contributes most to streamflow forecast skill in the Western U.S. SWE is also a source of water storage that provides the water resources during spring snowmelt. Despite such potentially transformative contributions, accurate RZSM and SWE measurements are unattainable with current technology. While active/passive L-band methods (e.g. SMAP, SMOS) can reliably retrieve surface soil moisture in the top 5 cm of soil [6], [7]. RZSM estimates are only available through model assimilation of brightness temperatures with a radiative transfer and land surface models [8]. SWE estimation uses multi-frequency passive microwave techniques (e.g. [9]-[11]), which have significant problems with deeper snow and in forested and mountainous environments [12]. Signals of opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (200-400 MHz) is a new remote sensing technique with the capability of estimating both essential hydrologic variables, RZSM and SWE, circumventing many of the aforementioned limitations under all weather conditions day and night. SoOp is the re-utilization of existing powerful satellite transmissions within bands allocated for communications or navigation. P-band SoOp sensitivity to soil moisture has been demonstrated in an airborne experiment over Oklahoma in 2016 [13]. Recent theory [14] and experiments [15] have also confirmed that the reflection coefficient phase is proportional to SWE.

Garrison, J. L.↗

Landing Characteristics of a Re-entry Vehicle with a Passive Landing System for Impact Alleviation

An experimental investigation was made to determine the landing characteristics of a 1/8-scale dynamic model of a reentry vehicle using a passive landing system to alleviate the landing-impact loads. The passive landing system consisted of a flexible heat shield with a small section of aluminum honeycomb placed between the heat shield and the crew compartment at the point that would be the first to contact the landing surface. The model was landed on concrete and sand landing surfaces at parachute letdown velocities. The investigations simulated a vertical velocity of 30 ft/sec (full scale), horizontal velocities of 0, 15, 30, 40, and 50 ft/sec (full scale), and landing attitudes ranging from -30 degrees to 20 degrees. The model investigation indicated that stable landings could be made on a concrete surface at horizontal velocities up to about 30 ft/sec, but the stable landing-attitude range at these speeds was small. The aluminum honeycomb bottomed occasionally during landings on concrete. When bottoming did not occur, maximum normal and longitudinal accelerations at the center of gravity of the vehicle were approximately 50g and 30g, respectively.

Stubbs, Sandy M.↗

Evaluating the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Budget Components over High Mountain Asia

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11 ± 0.45, 1.26 ± 0.11, and 0.85 ± 0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Terrestrial water budget↗