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NASA NTRS2011

Non-Stationary Internal Tides Observed with Satellite Altimetry

Temporal variability of the internal tide is inferred from a 17-year combined record of Topex/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeters. A global sampling of along-track sea-surface height wavenumber spectra finds that non-stationary variance is generally 25% or less of the average variance at wavenumbers characteristic of mode-l tidal internal waves. With some exceptions the non-stationary variance does not exceed 0.25 sq cm. The mode-2 signal, where detectable, contains a larger fraction of non-stationary variance, typically 50% or more. Temporal subsetting of the data reveals interannual variability barely significant compared with tidal estimation error from 3-year records. Comparison of summer vs. winter conditions shows only one region of noteworthy seasonal changes, the northern South China Sea. Implications for the anticipated SWOT altimeter mission are briefly discussed.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Climate Variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas

Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased -0.5 C / decade- since the mid-1940s, The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by 1 deg of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Climatology of Carbon Monoxide and Water Vapor on Mars as Observed by CRISM and Modeled by the GEM-Mars General Circulation Model

Radiative transfer modeling of near-infrared spectra taken by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) enables the column-integrated abundance of carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapor (H 2 O) to be retrieved. These results provide a detailed global description of the seasonal and spatial distribution of CO in the Mars atmosphere and new information about the interannual variability of H2O. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be near 800 parts per million, but with strong seasonal variations, especially at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure and shows little variation with topography. At high latitudes, carbon monoxide is depleted in the summer hemisphere by a factor of two or more, while in the winter hemisphere there is relatively higher mixing ratio in regions with low-lying topography. Water vapor shows only modest interannual variations, with the largest observed difference being unusually dry conditions in the wake of the Mars Year 28 global dust storm. Modeling results from the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) - Mars general circulation model generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial trends and provide insight into the underlying physical processes.

Smith, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Satellite Passive-Microwave Record of Sea Ice in the Ross Sea Since Late 1978

Satellites have provided us with a remarkable ability to monitor many aspects of the globe day-in and day-out and sea ice is one of numerous variables that by now have quite substantial satellite records. Passive-microwave data have been particularly valuable in sea ice monitoring, with a record that extends back to August 1987 on daily basis (for most of the period), to November 1970 on a less complete basis (again for most of the period), and to December 1972 on a less complete basis. For the period since November 1970, Ross Sea sea ice imagery is available at spatial resolution of approximately 25 km. This allows good depictions of the seasonal advance and retreat of the ice cover each year, along with its marked interannual variability. The Ross Sea ice extent typically reaches a minimum of approximately 0.7 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers in February, rising to a maximum of approximately 4.0 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers in September, with much variability among years for both those numbers. The Ross Sea images show clearly the day-by-day activity greatly from year to year. Animations of the data help to highlight the dynamic nature of the Ross Sea ice cover. The satellite data also allow calculation of trends in the ice cover over the period of the satellite record. Using linear least-squares fits, the Ross Sea ice extent increased at an average rate of 12,600 plus or minus 1,800 square kilometers per year between November 1978 and December 2007, with every month exhibiting increased ice extent and the rates of increase ranging from a low of 7,500 plus or minus 5,000 square kilometers per year for the February ice extents to a high of 20,300 plus or minus 6,100 kilometers per year for the October ice extents. On a yearly average basis, for 1979-2007 the Ross Sea ice extent increased at a rate of 4.8 plus or minus 1.6 % per decade. Placing the Ross Sea in the context of the Southern Ocean as a whole, over the November 1978-December 2007 period the Ross Sea had the highest rate of increase in sea ice coverage of any of five standard divisions of the Southern Ocean, although the Weddell Sea, Indian Ocean, and Western Pacific Ocean all also had sea ice increases, while only the Bellingshausen/Smundsen Seas experienced overall sea ice decreases. Overall, the Southern Ocean sea ice cover increased at an average rate of 10,800 plus or minus 2,500 square kilometers per year between November 1978 and December 2007, with every month showing positive values although with some of these values not being statistically significant. The sea ice increase since November 1978 was preceded by a sharp decrease in Southern Ocean ice coverage in the 1970's and is in marked contrast to the decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage that has occurred both in the period since November 1978 and since earlier in the 1970's. On a yearly average bases, for 1979-2007 the Southern Ocean sea ice extent increased at a rate of 1.0 plus or minus 0.4% per decade, whereas the Arctic ice extent decreased at the much greater rate of 4.0 plus or minus 0.4 percent per decade (closer to the % per decade rate of increase in the Ross Sea). Considerable research is ongoing to explain the differences.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stratospheric ozone variations in the equatorial region as seen in Stratiospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment data

An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric mode and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.

Shiotani, Masato↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Global Structure of UTLS Ozone in GEOS-5: A Multi-Year Assimilation of EOS Aura Data

Eight years of ozone measurements retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Microwave Limb Sounder, both on the EOS Aura satellite, have been assimilated into the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. This study thoroughly evaluates this assimilated product, highlighting its potential for science. The impact of observations on the GEOS-5 system is explored by examining the spatial distribution of the observation-minus-forecast statistics. Independent data are used for product validation. The correlation coefficient of the lower-stratospheric ozone column with ozonesondes is 0.99 and the bias is 0.5%, indicating the success of the assimilation in reproducing the ozone variability in that layer. The upper-tropospheric assimilated ozone column is about 10% lower than the ozonesonde column but the correlation is still high (0.87). The assimilation is shown to realistically capture the sharp cross-tropopause gradient in ozone mixing ratio. Occurrence of transport-driven low ozone laminae in the assimilation system is similar to that obtained from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) above the 400 K potential temperature surface but the assimilation produces fewer laminae than seen by HIRDLS below that surface. Although the assimilation produces 5 - 8 fewer occurrences per day (up to approximately 20%) during the three years of HIRDLS data, the interannual variability is captured correctly. This data-driven assimilated product is complementary to ozone fields generated from chemistry and transport models. Applications include study of the radiative forcing by ozone and tracer transport near the tropopause.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composition Reanalyses at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion 2018 and 2022 report the recovery of Antarctic ozone, consistent with diminishing concentrations of halogens in the stratosphere. Both the size and the depth of the springtime ozone holes exhibit downward trends, particularly in September. Superimposed on the recovery trend are significant year-to-year fluctuations arising from dynamical variability potentially influenced by climate forcing and volcanic eruptions. Since 2018 the Antarctic stratosphere has experienced a wild parade of austral spring seasons with a sudden stratospheric warming and exceptionally high ozone in 2019 followed by large and long-lasting ozone holes in the following years, prompting questions about the speed and detectability of Antarctic ozone recovery and its potential connections to human-induced climate change. From the Australian New Years’ wildfires of 2020 to volcanic aerosols to the unprecedented injection of water vapor by the Hunga volcanic eruption, recent scientific literature on the subject investigates many factors that may or may not have contributed to this remarkable interannual variability. This presentation summarizes dynamical influences on springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone in recent years and discusses these results in the context of long-term trends. In particular, this work seeks to isolate dynamical and chemical contributions to the Antarctic springs since 2019 using a consistent methodological framework. Our analysis uses constituent and meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) in combination with data from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer and from ozone sondes. Using the high spatial and temporal resolution of M2-SCREAM, we analyze the daily evolution of southern polar ozone, HCl, N2O, and water vapor in dynamical flow-following coordinates relative to the location, size, and shape of the polar vortex. For vertically integrated stratospheric ozone we emphasize the importance of the wave-influenced geometry of the polar vortex and its vertical alignment. The ultimate purpose of this project is to contribute to the quantification of the speed of the Antarctic ozone recovery and associated uncertainties.

Krzysztof Wargan↗
NASA NTRS2022

Linkages Between GRACE Water Storage, Hydrologic Extremes, and Climate Teleconnections in Major African Aquifers

Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.

Africa water storage↗
NASA NTRS2017

Intercomparison of Soil Moisture, Evaporative Stress, and Vegetation Indices for Estimating Corn and Soybean Yields Over the U.S.

This paper presents an intercomparative study of 12 operationally produced large-scale datasets describing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and or vegetation characteristics within agricultural regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets have been developed using a variety of techniques, including, hydrologic modeling, satellite-based retrievals, data assimilation, and survey in-field data collection. The objectives are to assess the relative utility of each dataset for monitoring crop yield variability, to quantitatively assess their capacity for predicting end-of-season corn and soybean yields, and to examine the evolution of the yield-index correlations during the growing season. This analysis is unique both with regards to the number and variety of examined yield predictor datasets and the detailed assessment of the water availability timing on the end-of-season crop production during the growing season. Correlation results indicate that over CONUS, at state-level soil moisture and ET indices can provide better information for forecasting corn and soybean yields than vegetation-based indices such as normalized difference vegetation index. The strength of correlation with corn and soybean yields strongly depends on the interannual variability in yield measured at a given location. In this case study, some of the remotely derived datasets examined provide skill comparable to that of in situ field survey-based data further demonstrating the utility of these remote sensing-based approaches for estimating crop yield.

evapotranspiration↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mean motions and tidal and two-day structure and variability in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Hawaii

An overview of the motion field and an analysis of the tidal and 2-day wave motions observed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over the central Pacific from 1 October 1990 through 19 August 1992 is presented. Characteristics and interactions of motions at lower and higher frequencies will be addressed elsewhere. Wind measurements were obtained with an MF radar operating on Kauai, Hawaii (22 deg N, 160 deg W), using the partial reflection drift technique. Results presented in this paper reveal a zonal mean motion reflecting the mesopause semiannual oscillation (MSAO) observed at more equatorial latitudes from approximately January to July, coinciding with the period during which the MSAO and the annual cycle of the zonal mean wind at higher latitudes are in phase. Eastward and westward maxima are 55 m/s below 80 km and 45 m/s near 85 km during the first year, with maxima of 57 and 53 m/s during the second year and evidence of substantial interannual variability. The second MSAO cycle is greatly suppressed in the Hawaiian data due to the reversal of the correlation between this and the annual cycle at higher latitudes from approximately July to December and because the second cycle is weaker climatologically at equatorial latitudes. Significant planetary wave activity is observed during periods of mean eastward motions, and tidal and 2-day motions are found to be large and variable. The maximum diurnal tides were observed during October and November 1990, and February, March, April, July, and August of 1991 and 1992. Maximum 2-day amplitudes occurred during February, July, and August of 1991 and 1992. Significantly, the large diurnal amplitude maximum noted during November 1990 failed to appear the following year, while the February 2-day amplitude maximum declined somewhat in 1992.

Fritts, David C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: 1. an EOF Approach to the Spatial-Temporal Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth Using Multiple Remote Sensing Data Sets

Many remote sensing techniques and passive sensors have been developed to measure global aerosol properties. While instantaneous comparisons between pixel-level data often reveal quantitative differences, here we use Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, also known as Principal Component Analysis, to demonstrate that satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data sets exhibit essentially the same spatial and temporal variability and are thus suitable for large-scale studies. Analysis results show that the first four EOF modes of AOD account for the bulk of the variance and agree well across the four data sets used in this study (i.e., Aqua MODIS, Terra MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS). Only SeaWiFS data over land have slightly different EOF patterns. Globally, the first two EOF modes show annual cycles and are mainly related to Sahara dust in the northern hemisphere and biomass burning in the southern hemisphere, respectively. After removing the mean seasonal cycle from the data, major aerosol sources, including biomass burning in South America and dust in West Africa, are revealed in the dominant modes due to the different interannual variability of aerosol emissions. The enhancement of biomass burning associated with El Niño over Indonesia and central South America is also captured with the EOF technique.

variability↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Remarkable 2003-2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-winter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aura/MLS Observes and SD-WACCM-X Simulates the Seasonality, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide Driving Upper Mesospheric CO Primarily Through Vertical Advection

This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the Specified Dynamics – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode but it simulates 2 local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 km and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modelled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.

Cornelius Csar Jude H Salinas↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aura/MLS Observes, and SD-WACCM-X Simulates the Seasonality, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino Southern Oscillation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide Driving Upper Mesospheric Co Primarily Through Vertical Advection

This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the Specified Dynamics – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode but it simulates 2 local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 km and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modelled CO’s (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modelled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.

Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salinas↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Remarkable 2003--2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2003

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This proposal is focused on using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data and numerical models to address issues of atmospheric mixing of volatiles and aerosols, on defining the mean state of the atmosphere and the degree of variability, and on the processes which exchange volatiles and aerosols between the surface and atmosphere. Specifically, five areas of research were defined: In the first, we proposed to use TES data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere both through retrieval of the residual circulation, and by comparison of the TES data with a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). In the second, we proposed to look at synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric mixing processes (baroclinic storms, etc.) by combining TES and MOC Wide Angle data, and by employing a Mars Mesoscale Model. In the third section, we proposed to examine the record of the Martian atmospheric state provided by MGS, Viking, and Mariner 9 - as well as published ground-based observations - in order to assess the nature of interannual variability. In the forth section, we proposed to compare numerical models of the Martian water and dust cycles with TES and MOC data, specifically looking at water ice cloud distributions, dust distribution, etc. In the fifth section, we propose to use the mesoscale model to study the Mars Pathfinder Lander data. This work has now concluded its final of three years.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variance and Predictability of Precipitation at Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

A series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, spanning a total of several thousand years, is used to assess the impact of land-surface and ocean boundary conditions on the seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability of precipitation in a coupled modeling system. In the first half of the analysis, which focuses on precipitation variance, we show that the contributions of ocean, atmosphere, and land processes to this variance can be characterized, to first order, with a simple linear model. This allows a clean separation of the contributions, from which we find: (1) land and ocean processes have essentially different domains of influence, i.e., the amplification of precipitation variance by land-atmosphere feedback is most important outside of the regions (mainly in the tropics) that are most affected by sea surface temperatures; and (2) the strength of land-atmosphere feedback in a given region is largely controlled by the relative availability of energy and water there. In the second half of the analysis, the potential for seasonal-to-interannual predictability of precipitation is quantified under the assumption that all relevant surface boundary conditions (in the ocean and on land) are known perfectly into the future. We find that the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation imposes fundamental limits on predictability in many extratropical regions. Associated with this result is an indication that soil moisture initialization or assimilation in a seasonal-to-interannual forecasting system would be beneficial mainly in transition zones between dry and humid regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates over the Arctic Ocean and Its Peripheral Seas from Reanalyses

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the ‘‘new Arctic’’). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

Mcpartland, Linette N.↗