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At least 361 records · Page 20

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Technology assessment: What should it be?

The necessity of uncovering unsuspected relationships in proposed actions is discussed along with the feasibility of using decision theoretical models to cope with problems of uncertainty in the future-oriented analyses characteristic of assessments. It is shown that it is necessary to integrate the results of technology assessment with other program analyses and that results of technology assessment be supplied in a form that permits integration with other information.

Black, G.↗

Validation and Analysis of SRTM and VCL Data Over Tropical Volcanoes

The focus of our investigation was on the application of digital topographic data in conducting first-order volcanological and structural studies of tropical volcanoes, focusing on the Java, the Philippines and the Galapagos Islands. Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, served as our test site for SRTM data validation. Volcanoes in humid tropical environments are frequently cloud covered, typically densely vegetated and erode rapidly, so that it was expected that new insights into the styles of eruption of these volcanoes could be obtained from analysis of topographic data. For instance, in certain parts of the world, such as Indonesia, even the regional structural context of volcanic centers is poorly known, and the distribution of volcanic products (e.g., lava flows, pyroclastic flows, and lahars) are not well mapped. SRTM and Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) data were expected to provide new information on these volcanoes. Due to the cancellation of the VCL mission, we did not conduct any lidar studies during the duration of this project. Digital elevation models (DEMs) such as those collected by SRTM provide quantitative information about the time-integrated typical activity on a volcano and allow an assessment of the spatial and temporal contributions of various constructional and destructional processes to each volcano's present morphology. For basaltic volcanoes, P_c?w!m-d and Garbed (2000) have shown that gradual slopes (less than 5 deg.) occur where lava and tephra pond within calderas or in the saddles between adjacent volcanoes, as well as where lava deltas coalesce to form coastal plains. Vent concentration zones (axes of rift zones) have slopes ranging from 10 deg. to 12 deg. Differential vertical growth rates between vent concentration zones and adjacent mostly-lava flanks produce steep constructional slopes up to 40". The steepest slopes (locally approaching 90 deg.) are produced by fluvial erosion, caldera collapse, faulting, and catastrophic avalanches, all of which are usually identifiable. Due to the delay in the release of the SRTM data following the February 2000 flight, a significant part of our effort was devoted to the analog studies of the SRTM topographic data using topographic data from airborne interferometric radars. As part of the original SRTM Science Team, we proposed four study sites (Kilauea, Hawaii; Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines; Cerro Am1 and Femandina volcanoes, Galapagos Islands; and Tengger caldera, Java) where we could conduct detailed geologic studies to evaluate the uses of SRTM data for the analysis of lava flows, lahars, erosion of ash deposits, and an evaluation of the structural setting of the volcanoes. Only near the end of this project was one of these SRTM Science Team products (Luzon Island, the Philippines) released to the community, and we only had limited time to work on these data.

Mouginis-Mark, Peter J.↗

Bridging the Engineering and Medicine Gap

A primary challenge NASA faces is communication between the disparate entities of engineers and human system experts in life sciences. Clear communication is critical for exploration mission success from the perspective of both risk analysis and data handling. The engineering community uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to inform their own risk analysis and has extensive experience managing mission data, but does not always fully consider human systems integration (HSI). The medical community, as a part of HSI, has been working 1) to develop a suite of tools to express medical risk in quantitative terms that are relatable to the engineering approaches commonly in use, and 2) to manage and integrate HSI data with engineering data. This talk will review the development of the Integrated Medical Model as an early attempt to bridge the communication gap between the medical and engineering communities in the language of PRA. This will also address data communication between the two entities in the context of data management considerations of the Medical Data Architecture. Lessons learned from these processes will help identify important elements to consider in future communication and integration of these two groups.

Walton, M.↗

VISAGE - A Visualization and Exploration Framework for Environmental Data

Diverse airborne and ground-based environmental observations are important technologies for disaster assessment and response, as well as for the validation of environmental satellite observations and atmospheric models which can improve forecasts. The VISAGE (Visualization for Integrated Satellite, Airborne and Ground-based data Exploration) project is working to provide three-dimensional visualization and basic analytics capabilities for such datasets in an interactive user interface. The use of cloud-native, server less technologies for analysis optimized data storage will position VISAGE for integration with other technologies into a Data Analytic Center Framework.

Conover, Helen↗

Development of A Composite Drought Indicator for Operational Drought Monitoring in the MENA Region

This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies’ technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making—including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy—within each national context.

Karim Bergaoui↗

Applications of the BIOPHYS Algorithm for Physically-Based Retrieval of Biophysical, Structural and Forest Disturbance Information

Canopy reflectance model inversion using look-up table approaches provides powerful and flexible options for deriving improved forest biophysical structural information (BSI) compared with traditional statistical empirical methods. The BIOPHYS algorithm is an improved, physically-based inversion approach for deriving BSI for independent use and validation and for monitoring, inventory and quantifying forest disturbance as well as input to ecosystem, climate and carbon models. Based on the multiple-forward mode (MFM) inversion approach, BIOPHYS results were summarized from different studies (Minnesota/NASA COVER; Virginia/LEDAPS; Saskatchewan/BOREAS), sensors (airborne MMR; Landsat; MODIS) and models (GeoSail; GOMS). Applications output included forest density, height, crown dimension, branch and green leaf area, canopy cover, disturbance estimates based on multi-temporal chronosequences, and structural change following recovery from forest fires over the last century. Good correspondences with validation field data were obtained. Integrated analyses of multiple solar and view angle imagery further improved retrievals compared with single pass data. Quantifying ecosystem dynamics such as the area and percent of forest disturbance, early regrowth and succession provide essential inputs to process-driven models of carbon flux. BIOPHYS is well suited for large-area, multi-temporal applications involving multiple image sets and mosaics for assessing vegetation disturbance and quantifying biophysical structural dynamics and change. It is also suitable for integration with forest inventory, monitoring, updating, and other programs.

Peddle, Derek R.↗

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flooding Vulnerability in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations

Milwaukee County has experienced an increase in flooding due to climate change and urbanization. The frequency and severity of flooding vary spatially due to differences in land cover, surface permeability, and infrastructure. Marginalized communities tend to experience disproportionately high flooding and damage due to infrastructural inequalities and limited access to resources. To quantify these differences, we used the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model to calculate and create maps of runoff retention, nominal flood depth, and economic damage to buildings in Milwaukee. Our model inputs included land cover, surface permeability, and rainfall. To inform our precipitation inputs, we used NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) and National Weather Service (NWS) data. We assessed the relationship between flood risk and social and environmental spatial data including redlining, racial demographics, greenspace, and community resilience. The data demonstrate that flood risk is higher in historically redlined neighborhoods, majority Hispanic and Black census block groups, areas that lack parks and trees, and areas of low community resilience as measured by the Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates (CRE). These findings will support our partners, Groundwork Milwaukee and Groundwork USA, in their efforts to promote the equitable distribution of resources and support environmental health in urban spaces. The end products of this project provide our partners with tools to assess urban flooding vulnerability, guide future intervention projects, quantify the effects of environmental injustice, and improve stakeholder access to data.

Madeleine Tango↗

Orbiter/payload contamination control assessment support

The development and integration of 16 payload bay liner filters into the existing shuttle/payload contamination evaluation (SPACE) computer program is discussed as well as an initial mission profile model. As part of the mission profile model, a thermal conversion program, a temperature cycling routine, a flexible plot routine and a mission simulation of orbital flight test 3 are presented.

Rantanen, R. O.↗

Assessment of recent resolution and parameterization changes in the GLA fourth order GCM

The Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres' fourth-order GCM is under evaluation for the impact on model integrations of enhanced horizontal and vertical resolution, as well as the effects of such novel parameterization schemes as that of gravity-wave-drag, the Arakawa-Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization, and an explicitly-resolved planetary boundary layer. While the doubling of the GMC's horizontal resolution to 2 deg in latitude and 2.5 deg in longitude has improved the model's predictive skill for 6-7 day forecasts, systematic errors associated with the model's climate drift lead to a deterioration in predictions for longer forecasts.

Helfand, H. M.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of High-Temperature Material Properties of a 5-Harness 0/90 Sylramic Fiber/ CVI-SiC/ MI-SiC Woven Composite

An integrated probabilistic approach has been developed to assess composites for high temperature applications. This approach was used to determine thermal and mechanical properties and their probabilistic distributions of a 5-harness 0/90 Sylramic fiber/CVI-SiC/Mi-SiC woven Ceramic Matrix Composite (CMC) at high temperatures. The purpose of developing this approach was to generate quantitative probabilistic information on this CMC to help complete the evaluation for its potential application for HSCT combustor liner. This approach quantified the influences of uncertainties inherent in constituent properties called primitive variables on selected key response variables of the CMC at 2200 F. The quantitative information is presented in the form of Cumulative Density Functions (CDFs). Probability Density Functions (PDFS) and primitive variable sensitivities on response. Results indicate that the scatters in response variables were reduced by 30-50% when the uncertainties in the primitive variables, which showed the most influence, were reduced by 50%.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗

Feasibility of Electrified Propulsion for Ultra-Efficient Commercial Aircraft Final Report

MIT, Aurora Flight Sciences, and USC have collaborated to assess the feasibility of electric, hybridelectric, and turbo-electric propulsion for ultra-efficient commercial transportation. The work has drawn on the team expertise in disciplines related to aircraft design, propulsion-airframe integration, electric machines and systems, engineering system design, and optimization. A parametric trade space analysis has been carried out to assess vehicle performance across a range of transport missions and propulsion architectures to establish how electrified propulsion systems scale. An optimization approach to vehicle conceptual design modeling was taken to enable rapid multidisciplinary design space exploration and sensitivity analysis. The results of the analysis indicate vehicle aero-propulsive integration benefits enabled by electrification are required to offset the increased weight and loss associated with the electric system and achieve enhanced performance; the report describes the conceptual configurations than can offer such enhancements. The main contribution of the present work is the definition of electric vehicle design attributes for potential efficiency improvements at different scales. Based on these results, key areas for future research are identified, and extensions to the trade space analysis suitable for higher fidelity electrified commercial aircraft design and analysis have been developed.

Hall, D.K.↗

The Stop-and-Go Mechanism: Towards an Integrated Approach to Model Seismicity, Outgassing, Deformation, and Thermal Unrest at Active Volcanoes

Connecting the geophysical and geochemical signals recorded at and above the surface of volcanoes with source mechanisms is fundamental to understand transitions from quiescence to eruption, and to integrate the behavior of volcanoes with their regional seismotectonic and hydrological context. Some of these signals include shallow volcanic tremor, a long-lasting (minutes-to-years) ground vibration detected in volcanic areas during unrest; volcanic outgassing, which shows intriguing periodicities over multiple scales, as revealed by space-borne instruments and by ground-based, high-frequency (~1 Hz), sampling methods; inflation and deflation of volcanic edifices, commonly associated with subsurface volume changes; and large-scale (from a few to tens of km2), low-temperature, thermal anomalies, a newly-discovered signal that has been observed to emerge on volcanic flanks from months-to-years prior to gas- and magma-driven eruptions. Traditionally, these geophysical and geochemical signals have been modelled independently, which limits our interpretation of subsurface processes and thus our assessment of unrest. In this work, we show through lumped-parameter models, numerical simulations, and preliminary laboratory experiments that many of the signals recorded around volcanoes can be integrated into a common “stop-and-go” mechanism. In particular, we found that they can arise spontaneously when taking into account the feedbacks between the temporary accumulation of gas and/or magma in the crust (“stop”), and the diffusive transfer of gas and heat towards the surface (“go”). For example, we find that the “stop-and-go” mechanism can explain: (i) the emergence of monochromatic, broadband, and harmonic tremor; (ii) the periodic components commonly observed in volcanic outgassing time series; (iii) the link between large-scale thermal anomalies and shallow hydrothermal systems; (iv) the reported time lags between large-scale thermal anomalies and deformation; and (v) the breathing of potentially destructive volcanic calderas. The “stop-and-go” mechanism provides a consistent and realistic framework to link multiple geophysical and geochemical signals with the processes leading to volcanic unrest and eruption.

volcanoes↗

Performance Enhancements Under Dual-task Conditions

Research on dual-task performance has been concerned with delineating the antecedent conditions which lead to dual-task decrements. Capacity models of attention, which propose that a hypothetical resource structure underlies performance, have been employed as predictive devices. These models predict that tasks which require different processing resources can be more successfully time shared than tasks which require common resources. The conditions under which such dual-task integrality can be fostered were assessed in a study in which three factors likely to influence the integrality between tasks were manipulated: inter-task redundancy, the physical proximity of tasks and the task relevant objects. Twelve subjects participated in three experimental sessions in which they performed both single and dual-tasks. The primary task was a pursuit step tracking task. The secondary tasks required the discrimination between different intensities or different spatial positions of a stimulus. The results are discussed in terms of a model of dual-task integrality.

Kramer, A. F.↗

Data Fusion With Uncertainty Quantification for Sub-City-Scale Air Quality Assessment and Forecasting

Many information sources can support air quality assessment and forecasting, including atmospheric chemistry model outputs, satellite retrievals of column chemical and aerosol constituents, and surface-based air quality monitoring data from both regulatory and low-cost instruments. Systematic integration of these data sources provides a major opportunity to improve understanding and management of air quality, but also presents technical barriers, especially in resource- and data-constrained settings in the Global South. This presentation describes a data fusion system, currently under development using the Google Earth Engine platform, which aims to integrate the information sources listed above to support comprehensive sub-city-scale assessment and management of air quality. Furthermore, the data fusion framework includes provisions for the quantification of uncertainties in the resulting fused estimates based on the variability of and among the input data sources. These capabilities will allow air quality managers to better understand their local air quality situation, including relative confidence in the fused estimates for different constituents, locations, and times, leading to better informed air quality management decisions. This presentation covers the underlying methodology of the data fusion and uncertainty quantification approaches, provides an update on the status of its implementation, and presents early qualitative and quantitative results.

Carl Malings↗

Correlations Between Sea-Surface Salinity Tendencies and Freshwater Fluxes in the Pacific Ocean

Temporal changes in sea-surface salinity (SSS) from 21 years of a high resolution model integration of the Pacific Ocean are correlated with the freshwater flux that was used to force the integration. The correlations are calculated on a 1 x10 grid, and on a monthly scale to assess the possibility of deducing evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) fields from the salinity measurements to be taken by the upcoming Aquarius/SAC-D mission. Correlations between the monthly mean E-P fields and monthly mean SSS temporal tendencies are mainly zonally-oriented, and are highest where the local precipitation is relatively high. Nonseasonal (deviations from the monthly mean) correlations are highest along mid-latitude storm tracks and are relatively small in the tropics. The response of the model's surface salinity to surface forcing is very complex, and retrievals of freshwater fluxes from SSS measurements alone will require consideration of other processes, including horizontal advection and vertical mixing, rather than a simple balance between the two.

Li, Zhen↗

Impact of Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter on UV Inhibition of Primary Productivity in the Sea

A model was developed to assess the impact of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) on phytoplankton production within the euphotic zone. The rate of depth-integrated daily gross primary productivity within the euphotic zone was evaluated as a function of date, latitude, CDONI absorption characteristics, chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration, vertical stratification, and phytoplankton sensitivity to UV radiation (UVR). Results demonstrated that primary production was enhanced in the upper 30 m of the water column by the presence of CDOM, where predicted increases in production due to the removal of damaging UVR more than offset its reduction resulting from the absorption of photosynthetically usable radiation. At greater depths, where little UVR remained, primary production was always reduced due to removal by CDOM of photosynthetically usable radiation. When CDOM was distributed homogeneously within the euphotic zone, the integral over z [(GPP)(sub ez)], was reduced under most bio-optical (i.e. solar zenith angle, and CDOM absorption, and ozone concentration) and photophysiological production at depth was greater than the enhancement of production at the surface.

Arrigo, Kevin R.↗

The Atmospheric Effects of HSCT Emissions Simulated by a 3-Wave Interactive Model

An interactive model which couples a semi-spectral dynamical model, a radiative transfer code and a two-dimensional chemistry transport model (2-D CTM), is used to assess the atmospheric effects of the High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) engine emissions. The residual mean meridional circulation, the zonal-mean temperature and the eddy diffusion coefficients are calculated using zonal means and three longest zonal waves of dynamical variables integrated in the semi-spectral dynamical model. They are used in the 2-D CTM to simulate the distribution of trace gases in the atmosphere. The simulated ozone is sent to the radiative transfer code to calculate the heating rates, which drive the dynamics. This radiative coupling connects the dynamical and photochemical processes and creates feedback when the atmosphere is perturbed. It is found that in most areas the ozone depletion caused by HSCT emissions calculated using the 3-wave model has the features similar to, but with significantly larger magnitude than that calculated by the AER 2-D CTM with prescribed transport parameters and temperature. The difference is mostly due to the differences in the circulation in the two models. The radiative feedback effects are investigated by comparing the ozone depletion calculated with the baseline dynamics and with the dynamics perturbed by the HSCT emissions. The feedback through changes in the residual mean meridional circulation and the eddy diffusion coefficients has moderate effects on the simulated ozone depletion. It reduced the ozone depletion by 20-30% in northern mid and high-latitudes. However, the feedback through changes in the zonal- mean temperature is negligible.

Shia, R.-L.↗