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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Validation and Parametric Investigations of an Internal Permanent Magnet Motor Using a Lumped Parameter Thermal Model

One of the key challenges for the electric vehicle industry is to develop high-power-density electric motors. Achieving higher power density requires efficient heat removal from inside the motor. In order to improve thermal management, a multiphysics modeling framework that is able to accurately predict the behavior of the motor, while being computationally efficient, is essential. This paper first presents a detailed validation of a lumped parameter thermal network (LPTN) model of an Internal Permanent Magnet synchronous motor within the commercially available MOTOR-CAD modeling environment. The validation is based on temperature comparison with experimental data and with more detailed finite element analysis (FEA). All critical input parameters of the LPTN are considered in detail for each layer of the stator, especially the contact resistances between the impregnation, liner, laminations, and housing. Finally, a sensitivity analysis for each of the critical input parameters is provided. A maximum difference of 4% - for the highest temperature in the slot-winding and the end-winding - was found between the LPTN and the experimental data. Comparing the results from the LPTN and the FEA model, the maximum difference was 2% for the highest temperature in the slot-winding and end-winding. As for the LPTN sensitivity analysis, the thermal parameter with the highest sensitivity was found to be the liner-to-lamination contact resistance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Monte Carlo sampling and correlation coefficients of critical experiments

We study the influence of calculation parameters on Monte-Carlo generated correlation coefficients of k{sub eff} values for a data set of critical experiments. The correlation coefficients can be used e.g. to reduce conservatism in bias estimations, but generally must be treated correctly if a data set includes correlations. We find that the actual value of the correlation coefficient for a given data set depends on the number of samples and the ratio of the sampling uncertainty to the Monte-Carlo uncertainty of the individual k{sub eff} calculation. We also discuss that the number of input parameters of the model to calculate the k{sub eff} values do not necessarily impact the convergence of the correlation coefficient with increasing sample number. However, we explain how varying the aforementioned parameters lead to different converged results for the correlation coefficients. The conclusion is that a correlation coefficient should not be discussed isolated but with the underlying uncertainties of both, the k{sub eff} estimation and the Monte Carlo sampling approach. The underlying modelling approach of the experimental data has to be described in detail. This should include a sensitivity analysis of the impact of input parameters on the k{sub eff} uncertainty with respect to the modelling approach.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

WRF Output from 270m domain running simulation with no 3D morphology, NUDAPT 3D morphology, 100m resolution 3D morphology and 10m resolution 3D morphology

This is a group of four datasets that were run for an experiment testing the effect of the resolution and the coverage of 3D urban morphological inputs on meteorological output. This data is associated with the paper "Sensitivity of Urban Morphology to the Resolution of Urban Morphological Feature Inputs: Implications for Characterizing Urban Sustainability."

integrated multisector multiscale modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

WRF Output from 270m domain running simulation with no 3D morphology, NUDAPT 3D morphology, 100m resolution 3D morphology and 10m resolution 3D morphology

integrated multisector multiscale modeling↗

NASA NTRS1997

Learnability of Red-Green Opponency

Lennie, Haake, and Williams found that in the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN), parvocellular unit responses are consistent with the hypothesis that their input connectivity is blind to the difference between middle-wavelength-sensitive (MWS) and long-wavelength-sensitive (LWS) cones. Most of their cells have a total MWS input weight opposite in sign and similar in magnitude to their total LWS input weight. If these weights are exactly balanced, the construction of a red-green opponent system from such units is simple: such units need only be aligned so the signs of their outputs agree. Ahumada and Mulligan described an associative learning process which can accomplish this alignment. If the units are not balanced (carry some luminance information), the strong overlap between the MWS and LWS spectral responses can cause units to agree more on the basis of luminance, and the associative process fails to produce red-green opponency. The learning theory requires that the LGN units be nearly balanced (more strongly encode chromaticity than luminance) and quantitatively expresses the requirement: the principal component of the LGN outputs must be in the red-green rather than the luminance direction. We show that the cone weights of the monkey LGN cells measured by Derrington, Krauskopf, and Lennie can satisfy this learnability criterion even if the MWS spectral response is close to the LWS spectral response, simulating anomalous trichromacy. The learnability theory provides a source of visual system variation for explaining why different anomalous trichromats may make the same average anomaloscope match (same pigments), but have either narrow (good opponent learning) or wide (poor learning) ranges of acceptable matches.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Surface radiation in the tropical Pacific

Monthly surface radiative fluxes have been calculated for the tropical Pacific between January 1970 and February 1978, using a radiative transfer parameterization. The radiative transfer parameterization included detailed treatments of the molecular and droplet absorptions, and surface and cloud reflections. The input data used in the calculations were obtained from the National Climatic Center (NCC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and from the University of Hawaii. The results show that the distribution of surface radiation closely follows the distribution of cloudiness, and, to a lesser degree, humidity. The rms net error in the surface radiation estimates was about 15 W per sq m, with the largest contribution from uncertainties in the cloud cover and humidity data. The sensitivity of surface radiation parameterizations to input data errors is discussed, and some accuracy requirements for satellite retrievals of atmospheric and cloud parameters are proposed. The calculations are presented in the annually-averaged maps of surface radiation variations.

Chou, M.-D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Development of a helicopter rotor/propulsion system dynamics analysis

A time-domain analysis of coupled engine/drive train/rotor dynamics of a twin-engine, single main rotor helicopter model has been performed. The analysis incorporates an existing helicopter model with nonlinear simulations of a helicopter turboshaft engine and its fuel controller. System dynamic behavior is studied using the resulting simulation which included representations for the two engines and their fuel controllers, drive system, main rotor, tail rotor, and aircraft rigid body motions. Time histories of engine and rotor RPM response to pilot control inputs are studied for a baseline rotor and propulsion system model. Sensitivity of rotor RPM droop to fuel controller gain changes and collective input feed-forward gain changes are studied. Torque-load-sharing between the two engines is investigated by making changes in the fuel controller feedback paths. A linear engine model is derived from the nonlinear engine simulation and used in the coupled system analysis. This four-state linear engine model is then reduced to a three-state model. The effect of this simplification on coupled system behavior is shown.

Warmbrodt, W.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Performance Assessment of a Generic Nuclear Waste Repository in Shale - 18392

A performance assessment (PA) is an important component of a comprehensive safety analysis for a nuclear waste repository. In a PA, probabilistic simulations of the total repository system are performed, and results are evaluated against performance metrics. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses help prioritize additional research and model development. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing a state of the art PA simulation software tool-kit, Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework, that couples increasingly higher fidelity models of subsystem processes into total system PA simulations. Over the past several years, PAs of generic repositories in three geologic media (salt, shale, and crystalline rock) have demonstrated ongoing developments in capability. The current PA of a nuclear waste repository in a generic shale formation showcases GDSA Framework, including capabilities in domain discretization (Cubit), multi-physics simulations (PFLOTRAN), uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (Dakota), and visualization (Paraview). The generic shale reference case considers the disposal of 22,000 metric tons heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a generic shale formation. PA simulations account for the thermal load and radionuclide inventory of the waste form, components of the engineered barrier system including waste package and buffer, and components of the natural barrier system including the host rock shale and underlying and overlying stratigraphic units. Two repository layouts are considered, one for emplacement of waste packages containing 12 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies, and one for 4-PWR waste package emplacement. Model domains are half-symmetry and contain between 7 and 22 million grid cells. Grid refinement captures the detail of individual waste packages, emplacement drifts, access drifts, and shafts. Simulations are run in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment on 512 or 2048 processes. The governing equations describing coupled heat and fluid flow and reactive transport are solved with PFLOTRAN, an open-source, massively parallel multiphase flow and reactive transport code. Additional simulated processes include waste package degradation; waste form dissolution; radioactive decay and ingrowth in aqueous, solid, and adsorbed phases; and a simple biosphere based on a pumping well. Simulations are run to 106 y; dose and radionuclide concentrations are observed within aquifers at a point approximately 5 km downgradient of the repository. Dakota is used to sample likely ranges of input parameters including waste form and waste package degradation rates and properties of engineered and natural materials to quantify uncertainty in predicted concentrations and sensitivity to input parameters. Given the assumptions of the reference case, results of 12-PWR and 4-PWR simulations are very similar. Dose at the pumping well 5-km downgradient of the repository does not exceed 10-9 Sv/y. I-129 is the largest contributor to dose. The dose due to Cl-36, the next largest contributor, is orders of magnitude smaller. At the pumping well, the concentration of I-129 5-km downgradient does not exceed 10-14 mol/L. Rank correlation coefficients indicate that the maximum concentration of I-129 within the aquifer is sensitive to shale (repository host rock) porosity and aquifer permeability. These results affirm that HPC-capable codes can be used to simulate important multi-physics couplings directly in a total system performance assessment of a geologic repository, and can be used in prioritization of future research and model development. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Industrial PLC Network Modeling and Parameter Identification Using Sensitivity Analysis and Mean Field Variational Inference

A multiple input multiple output (MIMO) power line communication (PLC) model for industrial facilities was developed that uses the physics of a bottom-up model but can be calibrated like top-down models. The PLC model considers 4-conductor cables (three-phase conductors and a ground conductor) and has several load types, including motor loads. The model is calibrated to data using mean field variational inference with a sensitivity analysis to reduce the parameter space. The results show that the inference method can accurately identify many of the model parameters, and the model is accurate even when the network is modified.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Demonstration of Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for PWR Fuel Performance with BISON

BISON is an advanced fuels performance code being developed at Idaho National Laboratory and is the code of choice for fuels performance by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Program. An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with BISON was developed and a new toolkit was created. A PWR fuel rod model was developed and simulated by BISON, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with eighteen uncertain input parameters. The maximum fuel temperature and gap conductance were selected as the figures of merit (FOM). Pearson, Spearman, and partial correlation coefficients were considered for all of the figures of merit in sensitivity analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Substrate availability and not thermal acclimation controls microbial temperature sensitivity response to long-term warming

Microbes are responsible for cycling carbon (C) through soils, and predicted changes in soil C stocks under climate change are highly sensitive to shifts in the mechanisms assumed to control the microbial physiological response to warming. Two mechanisms have been suggested to explain the long-term warming impact on microbial physiology: microbial thermal acclimation and changes in the quantity and quality of substrates available for microbial metabolism. Yet studies disentangling these two mechanisms are lacking. To resolve the drivers of changes in microbial physiology in response to long-term warming, we sampled soils from 13- and 28-year-old soil warming experiments in different seasons. We performed short-term laboratory incubations across a range of temperatures to measure the relationships between temperature sensitivity of physiology (growth, respiration, carbon use efficiency, and extracellular enzyme activity) and the chemical composition of soil organic matter. We observed apparent thermal acclimation of microbial respiration, but only in summer, when warming had exacerbated the seasonally-induced, already small dissolved organic matter pools. Irrespective of warming, greater quantity and quality of soil carbon increased the extracellular enzymatic pool and its temperature sensitivity. We propose that fresh litter input into the system seasonally cancels apparent thermal acclimation of C-cycling processes to decadal warming. Our findings reveal that long-term warming has indirectly affected microbial physiology via reduced C availability in this system, implying that earth system models including these negative feedbacks may be best suited to describe long-term warming effects on these soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

User Guidelines and Best Practices for CASL VUQ Analysis Using Dakota

Sandia’s Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a physics-based computational model. This can lend efficiency and rigor to manual parameter perturbation studies already being conducted by analysts. However, Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. Dakota algorithms enrich complex science and engineering models, enabling an analyst to answer crucial questions of - Sensitivity: Which are the most important input factors or parameters entering the simulation, and how do they influence key outputs?; Uncertainty: What is the uncertainty or variability in simulation output, given uncertainties in input parameters? How safe, reliable, robust, or variable is my system? (Quantification of margins and uncertainty, QMU); Optimization: What parameter values yield the best performing design or operating condition, given constraints? Calibration: What models and/or parameters best match experimental data? In general, Dakota is the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) delivery vehicle for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VUQ) algorithms. It permits ready application of the VUQ methods described above to simulation codes by CASL researchers, code developers, and application engineers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1994

Homodyning and heterodyning the quantum phase

The double-homodyne and the heterodyne detection schemes for phase shifts between two synchronous modes of the electromagnetic field are analyzed in the framework of quantum estimation theory. The probability operator-valued measures (POM's) of the detectors are evaluated and compared with the ideal one in the limit of strong local reference oscillator. The present operational approach leads to a reasonable definition of phase measurement, whose sensitivity is actually related to the output r.m.s. noise of the photodetector. We emphasize that the simple-homodyne scheme does not correspond to a proper phase-shift measurements as it is just a zero-point detector. The sensitivity of all detection schemes are optimized at fixed energy with respect to the input state of radiation. It is shown that the optimal sensitivity can be actually achieved using suited squeezed states.

Dariano, Giacomo M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of fatigue reliability in wind turbines: effects of design turbulence and the Wöhler exponent

Fatigue assessment of wind turbines involves three main sources of uncertainty: material resistance, load, and the damage accumulation model. Many studies focus on increasing the accuracy of fatigue load assessment to improve the fatigue reliability. Probabilistic modeling of the wind's turbulence standard deviation is an example of an approach used for this purpose. Editions 3 and 4 of the IEC standard for the design of wind energy generation systems (IEC 61400-1) suggest different probability distributions as alternatives for the representative turbulence in the normal turbulence model (NTM) of edition 1. There are debates on whether the suggested distributions provide conservative reliability levels, as the established design safety factors are calibrated based on the representative turbulence approach. The current study addresses the debate by comparing annual reliability based on different scenarios of NTM using a probabilistic approach. More importantly, it elaborates on the relative importance of load assessment accuracy in defining the fatigue reliability. Using the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine and the first-order reliability method (FORM), we study the changes in the annual reliability level and its sensitivity to the three main random inputs. We perform the study considering the blade root flapwise and the tower base fore–aft moments, assuming different fatigue exponents in each load channel. The results show that integration over distributions of turbulence in each mean wind speed results in less conservative annual reliability levels than representative turbulence. The difference in the reliability levels varies according to turbulence distribution and the fatigue exponent. In the case of the tower base, the difference in the annual reliability index after 20 years can be up to 50 %. However, the model and material uncertainty have much higher effects on the reliability levels compared to load uncertainty. Knowledge about such differences in the reliability levels due to the choice of turbulence distribution is especially important, as it impacts the extent of lifetime extension through reliability reassessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Reinterpretation of otolith input as a primary factor in space motion sickness

It is hypothesized that exposure to prolonged free fall is a form of sensory/motor rearrangement rather than a direct change in otolith sensitivity or sensory compensation for a reduced otolith input. The rearrangement of stimuli will force a new interpretation by the CNS of otolith input. This reinterpretation is necessary for a structured and meaningful interaction with the new environment. Data from two flight experiments are presented which support an otolith reinterpretation hypothesis. The first experiment measured vestibulo-spinal reflex changes as a function of sustained free fall. Findings indicate that when a monosynaptic reflex (H-reflex), measured from the major postural muscles (soleus), is used adaptation to space flight includes a change in how the CNS interprets a fall. In a normal gravity environment a sudden unexpected fall will produce a potentiated H reflex. After seven days in flight an equivalent fall does not potentiate the reflex. During postflight a greatly increased reflex is observed in those crewmen most susceptible to space motion sickness. In the second experiment self motion perception and torsional eyemovements were modified as a function of exposure to sustained free fall. Preflight roll motion (about the X axis) was perceived as pure roll, and the eye movements recorded were countertorsional. Postflight, roll stimulation was perceived as linear translation (side to side movement) with a small angular motion component. Eye movement measurements confirmed significantly more horizontal motion.

Reschke, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Blade-Wake Interaction Noise for Small Hovering Rotors, Part I: Characterization Study

This work illustrates the use of artificial neural network modeling to study and characterize broadband blade-wake interaction noise from hovering small unmanned aerial systems rotors subject to varying airfoil geometries, rotor geometries, and operating conditions. Design of experiments was used to create input feature spaces, and a high-fidelity strategy was implemented at the discrete data points defined by the input feature spaces to design airfoils and rotor blades, predict the unsteady rotor aerodynamics and aeroacoustics, and isolate the blade-wake interaction noise from the acoustic broadband noise. A metric for the blade-wake interaction noise was developed, and the ANOPP2 Artificial Neural Network Tool was used to identify an optimal prediction model for the nonlinear relationship between the input features and the metric for blade-wake interaction noise. This optimal artificial neural network was then validated over training/test data and exhibited prediction accuracy over 91% for data previously unseen by the model. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, which showed that input features that directly modify the thrust coefficient had a dominant effect over blade-wake interaction noise. The optimal prediction model along with aerodynamic simulations were used to further study the effect of varying input features on blade-wake interaction noise, and three types of blade-wake interaction noise were identified

Christopher S. Thurman↗