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Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗

An Evaluation of the Measurement Requirements for an In-Situ Wake Vortex Detection System

Results of a numerical simulation are presented to determine the feasibility of estimating the location and strength of a wake vortex from imperfect in-situ measurements. These estimates could be used to provide information to a pilot on how to avoid a hazardous wake vortex encounter. An iterative algorithm based on the method of secants was used to solve the four simultaneous equations describing the two-dimensional flow field around a pair of parallel counter-rotating vortices of equal and constant strength. The flow field information used by the algorithm could be derived from measurements from flow angle sensors mounted on the wing-tip of the detecting aircraft and an inertial navigation system. The study determined the propagated errors in the estimated location and strength of the vortex which resulted from random errors added to theoretically perfect measurements. The results are summarized in a series of charts and a table which make it possible to estimate these propagated errors for many practical situations. The situations include several generator-detector airplane combinations, different distances between the vortex and the detector airplane, as well as different levels of total measurement error.

Fuhrmann, Henri D.↗

In-situ thermophysical measurement of flowing molten chloride salt using modulated photothermal radiometry

Molten salts are leading candidates for high-temperature heat transfer fluids (HTFs) for thermal energy storage and conversion systems in concentrated solar power (CSP) and nuclear energy power plants. The ability to probe molten salt thermal transport properties in both stationary and flowing status is important for the evaluation of their heat transfer performance under realistic operational conditions, including the temperature range and potential degradation due to corrosion and contamination. However, accurate thermal transport properties are usually challenging to obtain even for stagnant molten salts due to different sources of errors from convection, radiation, and corrosion, let alone at flowing status. To the best of authors’ knowledge, there is no available in-situ technique for measuring flowing molten salt thermal conductivity. Here, we report the first in-situ flowing molten salt thermal conductivity measurement using modulated photothermal radiometry (MPR). We could successfully perform the first in-situ thermal conductivity measurement of flowing molten NaCl-KCl-MgCl 2 in the typical operating temperature (520 and 580 °C) with flow velocities ranging from around 0.3 to 1.0 m s -1 . The relative change of the molten salt thermal conductivity was measured. Gnielinski’s correlation was also used to estimate the heat transfer coefficient h of the flowing NaCl-KCl-MgCl 2 in the given experimental condition. Furthermore, the work showed the potential of the MPR technique serving as an in-situ diagnostics tool to evaluate the heat transfer performance of flowing molten salts and other high-temperature HTFs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe in a High-Temperature Flow

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media to demonstrate the capabilities in a number of regressing environments. In the present work, sensors were installed in the eroding/regressing throat region of a converging-diverging flow, with the working gas heated to high temperatures by means of a high-pressure arc discharge at steady-state discharge power levels up to 500 kW. The amount of regression observed in each material sample was quantified using a later profilometer, which was compared to the in-situ erosion measurements to demonstrate the efficacy of the measurement technique in very harsh, high-temperature environments.

Korman, Valentin↗

Implementation of In-Situ Impedance Techniques on a Full Scale Aero-Engine System

Determination of acoustic liner impedance for jet engine applications remains a challenge for the designer. Although suitable models have been developed that take account of source amplitude and the local flow environment experienced by the liner, experimental validation of these models has been difficult. This is primarily due to the inability of researchers to faithfully mimic the environment in jet engine nacelles in the laboratory. An in-situ measurement technique, one that can be implemented in an actual engine, is desirable so an accurate impedance can be determined for future modeling and quality control. This paper documents the implementation of such a local acoustic impedance measurement technique that is used under controlled laboratory conditions as well as on full scale turbine engine liner test article. The objective for these series of in-situ measurements is to substantiate treatment design, provide understanding of flow effects on installed liner performance, and provide modeling input for fan noise propagation computations. A series of acoustic liner evaluation tests are performed that includes normal incidence tube, grazing incidence tube, and finally testing on a full scale engine on a static test stand. Lab tests were intended to provide insight and guidance for accurately measuring the impedance of the liner housed in the inlet of a Honeywell Tech7000 turbofan. Results have shown that one can acquire very reasonable liner impedance data for a full scale engine under realistic test conditions. Furthermore, higher fidelity results can be obtained by using a three-microphone coherence technique that can enhance signal-to-noise ratio at high engine power settings. This research has also confirmed the limitations of this particular type of in-situ measurement. This is most evident in the installation of instrumentation and its effect on what is being measured.

Gaeta, R. J.↗

Joint Assimilation of Surface, GEO, and LEO CO, NO2, and O3 In Situ and Partial Column/Profile Retrievals with WRF-Chem/DART

Low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites like OMI or TROPOMI and geostationary satellites like TEMPO (to be launched January 2023) provide ozone (O3) retrieval profiles that extend into the stratosphere. Regional models like WRF-Chem generally do not include the stratosphere and have vertical grids that end near the tropopause. This causes difficulties when assimilating O3 retrievals (both column and profile retrievals) because the respective observation forward operators require model O3 profiles that extend into the stratosphere. In this presentation, we look at results from assimilating O3 observation from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (profile retrievals), and GEO (proxy profile retrievals) platforms in as regional model where we use a global chemical transport model (GCTM) to provide O3 upper boundary conditions (BCs) to enable application of the O3 observation forward operators. We will also present results from assimilating O3 retrievals together with carbon monoxide (CO) observations from surface (in situ measurements) and multiple LEO platforms (column and profile retrievals), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (column retrievals), and GEO (proxy column retrievals) platforms. Our joint assimilation experiments show that sometimes the observations complement each, e.g., when assimilating surface and satellite CO or NO2 observations, and sometimes the observations conflict with each other, e.g., when assimilating observations that are biased with respect to other observations (e.g., CO retrievals), or when the assimilation increments conflict due to their chemical interaction (e.g., surface O3 and NO2 retrievals). Results from assimilation of O3 retrieval profiles in regional model are preliminary and will also be discussed in our presentation. Our expectation is that using GCTM O3 as upper BCs in the regional model for evaluation of the O3 forward operator will improve our O3 forecasts. In summary, we will present results from jointly assimilating surface, LEO, and GEO CO, NO2, and O3 in situ and satellite observations in a regional model with dynamic emissions estimation. This study uses proxy GEO observations as a prelude to actual observations because the GEO platform will not be launched until after our presentation.

WRF-Chem/DART↗

Using in-situ strain measurements to evaluate the accuracy of stress estimation procedures from fracture injection/shut-in tests

Fracture injection/shut-in tests are commonly used to measure the state of stress. Injection creates a hydraulic fracture (or in some cases, opens a preexisting fracture), and then the pressure after shut-in is monitored to identify fracture closure. Different interpretation procedures have been proposed for estimating closure, and the procedures sometimes yield significantly different results. In this study, direct, in-situ strain measurements are used to observe fracture reopening and closure. The tests were performed as part of the EGS Collab project, a mesoscale project performed at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The tests were instrumented with the SIMFIP tool, a double-packer probe with a high-resolution three-dimensional borehole displacement sensor. The measurements provide a direct observation of the fracture closure signature, enabling a high-fidelity estimate of the fracture closure stress (ie, the normal stress on the fracture). In two of the four tests, injection created an opening mode fracture, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the minimum principal stress. In the other two tests, injection probably opened preexisting natural fractures, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the normal stress on the fractures. The strain measurements are compared against different proposed methods for estimating closure stress from pressure transients. The shut-in transients are analyzed with two techniques that are widely used in the field of petroleum engineering – the ‘tangent’ method and the ‘compliance’ method. In three of the four tests, the tangent method significantly underestimates the closure stress. The compliance method is reasonably accurate in all four tests. Closure stress is also interpreted using two other commonly-used methods – ‘first deviation from linearity’ and the method of Hayashi and Haimson. In comparison with the SIMFIP data, these methods tend to overestimate the closure stress, evidently because they identify closure from early-time transient effects, such as near-wellbore tortuosity. In two of the tests, microseismic imaging provides an independent estimate of the size of the fracture created by injection. When combined with a simple mass balance calculation, the SIMFIP stress measurements yield predictions of fracture size that are reasonably consistent with the estimates from microseismic. In conclusion, the calculations imply an apparent fracture toughness 2-3x higher than typical laboratory-derived values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

In situ exhaust cloud measurements

Airborne in situ exhaust cloud measurements were conducted to obtain definitions of cloud particle size range, Cl2 content, and HCl partitioning. Particle size distribution data and Cl2 measurements were made during the May, August, and September 1977 Titan launches. The measurements of three basic effluents - HCl, NO sub X, and particles - against minutes after launch are plotted. The maximum observed HCl concentration to the maximum Cl2 concentration are compared and the ratios of the Cl2 to the HCl is calculated.

Wornom, D.↗

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, From Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging II: The Williams Flats Fire during the FIREX-AQ Campaign

Although the characteristics of biomass burning events and the ambient ecosystem determine emitted smoke composition, the conditions that modulate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation are not well understood, nor are the spatial or temporal frequency of factors driving smoke particle evolution, such as hydration, coagulation, and oxidation, all of which impact smoke radiative forcing. In situ data from surface observation sites and aircraft field campaigns offer deep insight into the optical, chemical, and microphysical traits of biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosols, such as single scattering albedo (SSA) and size distribution, but cannot by themselves provide robust statistical characterization of both emitted and evolved particles. Data from the NASA Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument can provide at least a partial picture of BB particle properties and their evolution downwind, once properly validated. Here we use in situ data from the joint NOAA/NASA 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment-Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of MISR-derived constraints on particle size, shape, light-absorption, and its spectral slope, as well as plume height and associated wind vectors. Based on the satellite observations, we also offer inferences about aging mechanisms effecting downwind particle evolution, such as gravitational settling, oxidation, secondary particle formation, and the combination of particle aggregation and condensational growth. This work builds upon our previous study, adding confidence to our interpretation of the remote-sensing data based on an expanded suite of in situ measurements for validation. The satellite and in situ measurements offer similar characterizations of particle property evolution as a function of smoke age for the 06 August Williams Flats Fire, and most of the key differences in particle size and absorption can be attributed to differences in sampling and changes in the plume geometry between sampling times. Whereas the aircraft data provide validation for the MISR retrievals, the satellite data offer a spatially continuous mapping of particle properties over the plume, which helps identify trends in particle property downwind evolution that are ambiguous in the sparsely sampled aircraft transects. The MISR data record is more than two decades long, offering future opportunities to study regional wildfire plume behavior statistically, where aircraft data are limited or entirely lacking.

biomass burning↗

Global Retrieval of Cloud Particle Size and Optical Thickness Using ISCCP Data

The primary thrust of this investigation is to develop an algorithm to retrieve cloud particle sizes using ISCCP data. The research under this grant has been successful in obtaining initial results of global distribution of ice-particle sizes. Further research about possible problems caused by nonsphericity of ice particle sizes is currently underway. An algorithm of retrieving ice-cloud particle sizes using ISCCP CX data has been developed. The first survey of ice-particle size in a near-global scale has been completed. Comparison with in situ measurements of ice crystal sizes during FIRE I shows good agreement. The initial results show that the global mean size of ice crystals (De) is about 60 micron. This result is consistent with the range of in situ measurements all over the world if definitions of effective particle size are unified (see next section). The survey also shows that there is no distinct difference of ice-particle sizes between continental and maritime ice-clouds. There are many different definitions of effective particle size used in ice-cloud research. Simple comparisons between values of in situ measurement and satellite remote sensing are misleading and may lead to incorrect conclusions. We reviewed different definitions of effective particle sizes used in the literature and compared their relative magnitudes.

Welch, Ronald M.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for Version 4 of the L4_SM Data Product

This report provides an assessment of Version 4 of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, released on 14 June 2018. The assessment includes comparisons of L4_SM soil moisture and temperature estimates with in situ measurements from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product, including observation-minus-forecast (O-F) brightness temperature residuals and soil moisture analysis increments.Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics areconsidered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to upscaling errors from the point-scale to the grid-cell scale of the data product.The Version 4 L4_SM product benefits from an improved land surface modeling system and from retrospective surface meteorological forcing data that are as consistent as possible with the present-day datain terms of their climatology. Specifically, the model changes include revised parameters and parameterizations for (i) the surface energy balance, (ii) recharge from below of the model's surface excess reservoir, and (iii) the snow depletion curve. Updated ancillary inputs include improved datasets for landcover, topography, and vegetation height. The Version 4 algorithm further includes a revised approach to precipitation corrections that improves the precipitation climatology in Africa and the high-latitudes. Moreover, for system calibration the model is forced retrospectively with MERRA-2 reanalysis data, which are more consistent with the near-real time GEOS forward processing (FP) data used during the SMAP period than the retrospective GEOS data that were available for previous L4_SM versions. An analysis of the time-average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern ofarid and humid regions is captured by the Version 4 L4_SM estimates. Owing to the changes in the landsurface modeling system, surface soil moisture is typically drier by several volumetric percent in Version 4 compared to Version 3, whereas root zone soil moisture is wetter in Version 4 in some regions and drierin others. Because of these climatological differences, the Version 3 and Version 4 products should not be combined into a single dataset for use in applications.Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that Version 4 of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the RMSE after removal of the long-term mean difference (ubRMSE). The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM dataat the 9 km scale is 0.039 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture and 0.029 m3 m-3 for root zone soil moisture,below the 0.04 m3 m-3 requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only Nature Run version 7.2 (NRv7.2), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. Overall, L4_SM surface and root zone soil moisture estimates are more skillful than NRv7.2 estimates, with statistically significant improvements at the 5% level for surface soil moisture R and anomaly R values. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to i

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Deep Learning enabled spectral energy conversion for in situ exposure measurements

A detector-specific deep learning (DL) approach is presented for spectra-to-exposure conversion using large-format sodium iodide (NaI(Tl)) detectors deployed for in situ environmental radiation measurements in emergency response scenarios. Accurate determination of exposure from NaI spectra is challenging due to poor energy resolution, partial energy absorption, and the strong sensitivity of traditionally deployed analytical conversion methods to calibrated source geometry and pre-deployment assumptions. Here, to address these limitations, a multi-layer perceptron model was trained on a hybrid in situ /Monte Carlo dataset constructed to span a broad range of photon energies, spatial extents, and realistic deployment variability, representative of general in situ emergency response conditions. The DL model was evaluated against commonly fielded analytical approaches under matched simulation conditions, including a single-factor method, a G-function method, and a modeled pressurized ion chamber (PIC) baseline. This study was intentionally computational in scope to enable controlled, like-for-like comparisons between conversion techniques while minimizing confounding real-world variability. Comparison to the modeled PIC provides contextual benchmarking and is not intended as a field inter-comparison with deployed instruments. Across the evaluated 20 keV to 3 MeV energy range, the DL approach consistently exhibited higher accuracy and reduced variance relative to the analytical methods against a deterministically calculated exposure. This may indicate improved robustness to spectral complexity without reliance on source-, geometric-, or spectral region-specific optimization. While results do not represent real-world validation, the presented work demonstrates that deep learning may effectively learn the nonlinear detector response-to-exposure relationship for asymmetric NaI(Tl) detectors and offers a promising pathway for improving in situ exposure estimation using spectroscopic systems already integrated into initial real-time emergency response operations.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

High Temperature Material Property Data and Challenges to Thermal Process Model Predictions and In-Situ/Ex-Situ Measurements for Metallic Additive Manufacturing

Understanding and predicting performance properties of parts produced by metallic additive manufacturing has improved significantly over the past decade; however, difficult to measure material properties and process outcomes continue to be challenges. The qualification or certification of aerospace parts require extensive measures to quantify variable part properties in order to buy down the risk of component failure. The variability, inherent to the additive manufacturing, process adds unwanted uncertainty in the production of load critical structural components. Process modeling has proven valuable in providing predictions and context for understanding outcomes of the additive manufacturing process; however, these physically informed process models require material properties at temperatures that are difficult to measure and rarely available. Further, calibrating or validating such models is difficult because the process itself is challenging to measure. This talk will explore some of the challenges resulting from difficult to acquire input data by relating thermal process model predictions to in-situ and ex-situ optical microscopy measurements.

Process Model↗

Calibration of TOPEX/POSEIDON at Platform Harvest

We present estimates for the mean bias of the TOPEX/POSEIDON NASA altimeter (ALT) and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales altimeter (SSALT) using in-situ data gathered at Platform Harvest during the first 36 cycles of the mission. Data for 21 overflights of the ALT and six overflights of the SSALT have been analyzed. The analysis includes an independent assessment of in-situ measurements of sea level, the radial component of the orbit, wet tropospheric path delay, and ionospheric path delay. (The sign convention used is such that, to correct the geophysical data record values for sea level, add the bias algebraically. Unless otherwise stated, the uncertainty in a given parameter is depicted by +/- sigma(sub x), where sigma(sub x) is the sample standard deviation of x about the mean.) Tide gauges at Harvest provide estimates of sea level with an uncertainty of +/- 1.5 cm. The uncertainty in the radial component of the orbit is estimated to be +/- 1.3 cm. In-situ measurements of tropopsheric path delay at Harvest compare to within +/- 1.3 cm of the TOPEX/POSEIDON microwave radiometer, and in-situ measurements of the ionospheric path delay compare to within -0.4 +/- 0.7 cm of the dual-frequency ALT and 1.1 +/- 0.6 cm of Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite. We obtain mean bias estimates of -14.5 +/- 2.9 cm for the ALT and +0.9 +/- 3.1 cm for the SSALT (where the uncertainties are based on the standard deviation of the estimated mean (sigma(sub bar x/y), which is derived from sample statistics and estimates for errors that cannot be observed). These results are consistent with independent estimates for the relative bias between the two altimeters. A linear regression applied to the complete set of data shows that there is a discernable secular trend in the time series for the ALT bias estimates. A preliminary analysis of data obtained through cycle 48 suggests that the apparent secular drift may be the result of a poorly sampled annual signal.

Christensen, E. J.↗

Methods for Validation and Intercomparison of Remote Sensing and In situ Ice Water Measurements: Case Studies from CRYSTAL-FACE and Model Results

Remote sensing observations, such as those from AURA, are necessary to understand the role of cirrus in determining the radiative and humidity budgets of the upper troposphere. Using these measurements quantitatively requires comparisons with in situ measurements that have previously been validated. However, a direct comparison of remote and in situ measurements is difficult due to the requirement that the spatial and temporal overlap be sufficient in order to guarantee that both instruments are measuring the same air parcel. A difficult as this might be for gas phase intercomparisons, cloud inhomogeneities significantly exacerbate the problem for cloud ice water content measurements. The CRYSTAL-FACE mission provided an opportunity to assess how well such intercomparisons can be performed and to establish flight plans that will be necessary for validation of future satellite instruments. During CRYSTAL-FACE, remote and in situ instruments were placed on different aircraft (NASA's ER-2 and WB-59, and the two planes flew in tandem so that the in situ payload flew in the field of view of the remote instruments. We show here that, even with this type of careful flight planning, it is not always possible to guarantee that remote and in situ instruments are viewing the same air parcel. We use ice water data derived from the in situ Harvard Total Water (HV-TW) instrument, and the remote Goddard Cloud Radar System (CRS) and show that agreement between HV-TW and CRS is a strong function of the horizontal separation and the time delay between the aircraft transects. We also use a cloud model to simulate possible trajectories through a cloud and evaluate the use of statistical analysis in determining the agreement between the two instruments. This type of analysis should guide flight planning for future intercomparison efforts, whether for aircraft or satellite-borne instrumentation.

Sayres, D.S.↗

Imaging the End-to-End Dynamics of the Global Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction

Much of what we know about the solar wind’s interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere has been gained from isolated in situ measurements by single or multiple spacecraft. Based on their observations, we know that reconnection, whether on the dayside magnetopause or deep within the Earth’s magnetotail, controls the flow of solar wind energy into and through the global system. We know that nightside activity provides the energized particles that power geomagnetic storms. But by their very nature these isolated in situ measurements cannot provide an instantaneous global view of the entire system or its cross-scale dynamics. As a result, we don’t know which mode of reconnection prevails on the dayside magnetopause or within the magnetotail as a function of solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. We don’t know which mode or modes of nightside activity supply the most energized particles to the ring current. Nor do we know the dominant loss mode for ring current decay: precipitation, magnetopause outflow, or charge exchange with neutrals. Nor do we know how processes deep within the magnetosphere provide feedback to those happening in the outer magnetosphere. The answers to these questions could have an impact far beyond magnetospheric physics, since magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, and charge-exchange are fundamental plasma processes that operate at other planets and throughout the universe. Comprehensive end-to-end global imaging of the key micro, meso-, and macro-scale plasma structures that comprise the magnetosphere will provide the answers to these questions via observations with a spatial resolution that exceeds anything possible with in situ measurements. Each proposed interaction mechanism generates a diagnostic plasma structure or boundary signature. Global, end-to-end, imaging provides the pathway to understanding the system as a whole, its constituent parts, and its cross-scale processes on a continuous basis, as needed to quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the global magnetospheric system. The significance of each mechanism is the product of its amplitude and occurrence rate. This white paper describes how a comprehensively-instrumented single spacecraft in a high-latitude circular polar orbit can provide the essential observations needed to track and quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the magnetosphere, including the solar wind plasma and magnetic field input, the magnetopause location in soft X-rays, the auroral oval in far ultraviolet, the ring current in energetic neutrals, the plasmasphere in extreme ultraviolet, the exosphere in Lyman-, the microstructure of the nightside auroral oval in ground-based all sky cameras, and the magnetic perturbations of ionospheric current patterns seen by ground-based magnetometers.

D G Sibeck↗

A Hyperspectral Inversion Framework for Estimating Absorbing Inherent Optical Properties and Biogeochemical Parameters in Inland and Coastal Waters

The simultaneous remote estimation of biogeochemical parameters (BPs) and inherent optical properties (IOPs) from hyperspectral satellite imagery of globally distributed optically distinct inland and coastal waters is a complex, unsolved, non-unique inverse problem. To tackle this problem, we leverage a machine-learning model termed Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). MDNs outperform operational algorithms by calculating the covariance between the simultaneously estimated products. We train the MDNs on a large ( N = 8237) dataset of co-aligned, in situ measured, hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R rs ), BPs, and absorbing IOPs from globally representative optically distinct inland and coastal waters. The estimated IOPs include absorption due to phytoplankton (a ph ), chromophoric dissolved organic matter (a cdom ), and non-algal particles (a nap ). The estimated BPs include chlorophyll-a, total suspended solids, and phycocyanin (PC). MDNs dramatically reduce uncertainty in the retrievals, relative to operational algorithms, when using a 50/50 dataset split, where the MDNs are trained on a randomly selected half of the in situ dataset and validated on the other half. Our model is shown to have higher, or equivalent, generalization performance than the calculated operational algorithms available for all BPs and IOPs (except PC) via a leave-one-out cross-validation assessment. The MDNs are sensitive to uncertainties in the hyperspectral satellite R rs , resulting from instrument noise and atmospheric correction; there is a difference of ~37.4–62.8% (using median symmetric accuracy) between the MDNs’ estimates derived from co-located satellite-derived R rs and in situ R rs . Of the IOPs, a cdom and a nap are less sensitive to uncertainties in hyperspectral satellite imagery relative to a ph , with remote estimates of a ph exhibiting incorrect spectral shape and magnitude relative to in situ measured IOPs. Despite the uncertainties in satellite derived R rs , the spatial distributions of BPs and IOPs in MDN-derived product maps of Lake Erie and the Curonian Lagoon, based on imagery taken with the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) and PRecursore Iper-Spettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), are confirmed via co-aligned in situ measurements and agree with the literature’s understanding of these well-studied regions. The consistency and accuracy of the model on HICO and PRISMA imagery, despite radiometric uncertainties, demonstrate its applicability to future hyperspectral missions, such as the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, where the simultaneous estimation model will serve as a key part of phytoplankton community composition analysis.

Ryan E. O'Shea↗

Non-thermal electron acceleration from magnetically driven reconnection in a laboratory plasma

Magnetic reconnection rapidly converts magnetic energy into some combination of plasma flow energy, thermal energy and non-thermal energetic particles. Various reconnection acceleration mechanisms have been theoretically proposed and numerically studied in different collisionless and low-β environments, where β refers to the plasma-to-magnetic pressure ratio. These mechanisms include Fermi acceleration, betatron acceleration, parallel electric field acceleration along magnetic fields and direct acceleration by the reconnection electric field. However, none of them have been experimentally confirmed, as the direct observation of non-thermal particle acceleration in laboratory experiments has been difficult due to short Debye lengths for in situ measurements and short mean free paths for ex situ measurements. Here we report the direct measurement of accelerated non-thermal electrons from magnetically driven reconnection at low β in experiments using a laser-powered capacitor coil platform. We use kilojoule lasers to drive parallel currents to reconnect megagauss-level magnetic fields in a quasi-axisymmetric geometry. The angular dependence of the measured electron energy spectrum and the resulting accelerated energies, supported by particle-in-cell simulations, indicate that the mechanism of direct electric field acceleration by the out-of-plane reconnection electric field is at work. Scaled energies using this mechanism show direct relevance to astrophysical observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗