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Land use and environmental assessment in the central Atlantic region

Data from high altitude aircraft, LANDSAT and Skylab were used in a comprehensive regional survey of land use and its associated environmental impact in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). Each sensor system has advantages that were demonstrated by producing experimental land use maps and other data products, applying them to typical problems encountered in regional planning and environmental impact assessment, and presenting the results to prospective users for evaluation. An archival collection of imagery, maps, data summaries, and technical reports was assembled, constituting an environmental profile of the central Atlantic region. The investigation was organized into four closely-related modules, a land use information module, an environmental impact module, a user interaction and evaluation module, and a geographic information systems module. Results revealed a heterogeneous user community with diverse information needs, tending, however, definitely toward the higher-resolution sensor data and the larger-scale land use maps and related information products. Among project recommendations are greater efforts toward improving compatibility of federal, state, and local land use information programs, and greater efforts toward a broader exchange of imagery, computer tapes, and land use information derived therefrom.

Alexander, R. H.↗

CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities

The Land and Land Ice Theme in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) represents the current understanding of physical processes in land surface ecosystems, hydrology, cryosphere, and their physical interactions with other Earth system components. Simulations from Earth system models (ESMs) could provide crucial information for assessing planetary safety, such as critical tipping elements, and be used to inform climate risks for improving climate impact assessments and policy decisions. This paper presents a collaborative effort to identify scientific opportunities in the Land and Land Ice Theme of the CMIP7 Data Request. The proposed opportunities build upon advances in ESMs, including new freshwater system and land ice processes being included in CMIP7, as well as the scientific community's demand for high-frequency and sub-grid-scale land surface outputs. In total, 25 variable groups that contain 716 variables have been identified to be potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology. Key reflections from this data request effort include advocacy for closer engagement between the user community and modeling groups, reduction in the technical barriers to tracking existing parameters and defining new variables, and more streamlined variable management. These will be essential to enhance the usability and reliability of CMIP7 outputs for climate and Earth system research and applications to a broad audience that relies on the CMIP7 endeavor.

Li, Yue [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Uni↗

Environmental projects. Volume 6: Environmental assessment. New 34-meter antenna at Venus site

The Jet Propulsion Lab has proposed replacing the 26-meter antenna at the Venus Station of the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex with a new 34-meter antenna. An environmental impact assessment of this proposed change is presented. It is concluded that the proposed antenna and its operation would not result in significant adverse impacts to the physical or human environment. It will, however, be necessary to manage electromagnetic transmissions from the antenna in such a manner as to ensure safe operation.

Kushner, L.↗

Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Climate impact assessment for power systems has tended to focus on the effects of water availability on generation without explicitly considering how these impacts propagate through the interconnected grid to affect generation in other locations. We investigate the impact of projected water availability on the operations of the contemporary Western U.S. power grid, focusing specifically on regional interdependencies. Hydrologic simulations derived from three GCMs (CCSM4, INMCM4 and GFDL-CM3) and two radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to force a large-scale, distributed water management model (MOSART-WM), which translates water availability into power generation constraints at hydropower plants and water-dependent thermo-electric plants. Power system dynamics are evaluated using the production cost model PLEXOS. We find that the inter-regional connections across the Western U.S. electricity infrastructure are key in managing drastic variations in regional water availability. Net generation in the Northwest and Northern California is substantially sensitive to local water availability. Generation from the Desert Southwest emerges as a critical resource to compensate for variations in water availability in those regions. Climate change impacts on Northwestern water availability therefore drive future changes in other regions’ generation and regional power flows. The large inter-annual hydrological variability of Northern California exacerbates grid stress arising from long-term changes in water availability in the Northwest. While the regional power flow directions seem insensitive to long-term variations in water availability, the analysis highlights the need to consider other compounding regional factors such as changes in Southern California net load or changes in regional fuel prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Makah Tribe Climate Assessment, Adaptation, and Resilience Planning

Our aim was to develop a Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan through gathering community input through personal interviews and individual surveys, building from our Climate Impacts Assessment work completed in 2018. This project has collected traditional, cultural, and local knowledge to support the ongoing multi-departmental environmental planning processes of the Makah Tribe. This information was then used to identify specific human wellbeing indicators to inform and enhance Makah tribal policy, management, and decision-making processes. Combined our tribal environmental planning to include the work of the Tribal Resilience Work Group (TRWG) and Oil Spill Work Group (OSWG), which relied on publicly available Western science-based data. While this information provided a strong basis for tribal environmental planning, it does not capture the unique traditional, cultural needs, and local knowledge and tribal voices of the Makah community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cost Efficiency of Environmental DNA as Compared to Conventional Methods for Biodiversity Monitoring Purposes at Marine Energy Sites

The installation of marine energy systems may affect marine environments, and by extension, marine fish communities. Therefore, biomonitoring is an integral part of assessing impacts on species. Environmental DNA (eDNA) provides a noninvasive alternative to conventional monitoring surveys and the possibility of a more accurate assessment of species richness. Yet, its cost efficiency compared to traditional methods of monitoring is relatively unknown, especially when applied to monitoring around tidal, wave, and offshore wind energy installations. For this study, 202 peer-reviewed journal articles were dissected to inventory the diversity of supplies used for collecting and processing eDNA samples and to compile the average cost of eDNA surveys. Information collected included the type, volume, and brand of containers used in sampling; material, size, and brand of filters; and extraction methods. Cost information was gathered for the most common supplies, and a total cost was estimated for a hypothetical eDNA survey in Sequim Bay, WA, to compare with traditional methods of surveying such as beach seining and scuba surveys. The results showed a higher-than-expected diversity of supplies to collect and process eDNA samples. The most common supplies were 1 L Nalgene bottles at an average cost of 7.96 USD for collecting samples, 0.45 µm glass fiber Merck Millipore filters at an average cost of 1.51 USD for filtering samples, and the Qiagen DNeasy Blood and Tissue kit at 3.54 USD per sample for extracting DNA. When compared to beach seine and scuba surveys, eDNA surveys undertaken by senior researchers are less expensive for both initial surveys with all new materials as well as for follow-up surveys reusing some of the supplies. However, when surveys are done solely by students, eDNA surveys are more expensive than scuba surveys when no prior supplies are available and more than both beach seine and scuba surveys for follow-up surveys reusing supplies. In a professional sphere, where surveys are less often conducted by teams of students only, eDNA surveys are an effective and less-costly alternative to conventional methods. We anticipate that the development and refinement of eDNA methodology will continue to decrease surveying costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul↗

Hypervelocity Impact Characterization on Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Layer Insulation

Multi-layer insulation (MLI) is a common material used on rocket bodies and spacecraft to provide thermal regulation. This material is typically attached on the surface of the object in orbit and is thus exposed to the space environment and to micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts. Occasionally, these exposed surfaces are returned and used by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) for analysis. When used to assess impacts on surfaces over time, materials like MLI provide an opportunity for in situ measurements to support the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) development and validation. During the 2009 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Serving Mission, the MLI blankets covering the HST electronics bays 5, 8, and 10 were removed and subsequently analyzed by the ODPO in 2010. The bay 5 blanket was used in concert with ground-based hypervelocity impact tests on single layer MLI to validate the ORDEM 3.1 computer model of the OD environment, but further research was required to properly differentiate the impact features attributed to MM or OD. The ORDEM 3.1 validation effort identified several areas of further study to improve model validation and understanding of the space environment. Among these topics are the effects of underlying MLI layers on first layer impact feature characteristics, the effects of space weathering and associated damage to the surface on impact feature characteristics, and the transition from perforating to cratering regions. To better understand hypervelocity impact damage and long-term degradation of MLI surfaces, further hypervelocity impact testing was proposed and completed from 2020 to 2022. This paper discusses test conditions and parameters with resultant impact hole analyses of single layer versus multi-layered samples, space-exposed samples versus pristine, equivalent samples, and perforation versus cratering criteria in the difficult transition region. Damage equations, with associated uncertainties, are estimated from the test parameters and presented. The results of a feasibility study are described, in which the Scanning Electron Microscopy/Electron Dispersive X-ray was used to examine the MLI layers to differentiate MM and OD impacts. Finally, the extension of HST MLI outcomes and analysis methodology as it applies to future returned MLI samples is discussed.

Melissa A. Murray↗

Hypervelocity Impact Characterization on Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Layer Insulation

Multi-layer insulation (MLI) is a common material used on rocket bodies and spacecraft to provide thermal regulation. This material is typically attached on the surface of the object in orbit and is thus exposed to the space environment and to micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts. Occasionally, these exposed surfaces are returned and used by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) for analysis. When used to assess impacts on surfaces over time, materials like MLI provide an opportunity for in-situ measurements to support the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) development and validation. During the 2009 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Serving Mission, the MLI blankets covering the HST electronics bays 5, 8, and 10 were removed and subsequently analyzed by the ODPO in 2010. The bay 5 blanket was used in concert with ground-based hypervelocity impact tests on single layer MLI to validate the ORDEM 3.1 computer model of the OD environment, but further research was required to properly differentiate the impact features attributed to MM or OD. The ORDEM 3.1 validation effort identified several areas of further study to improve model validation and understanding of the space environment. Among these topics are the effects of underlying MLI layers on first layer impact feature characteristics, the effects of space weathering and associated damage to the surface on impact feature characteristics, and the transition from perforating to cratering regions. To better understand hypervelocity impact damage and long-term degradation of MLI surfaces, further hypervelocity impact testing was proposed and completed from 2020 to 2022. This paper discusses test conditions and parameters with resultant impact hole analyses of single layer versus multi-layered samples, space-exposed samples versus pristine, equivalent samples, and perforation versus cratering criteria in the difficult transition region. Damage equations, with associated uncertainties, are estimated from the test parameters and presented. The results of a feasibility study are described, in which the scanning electron microscopy/electron dispersive x-ray was used to examine the MLI layers to differentiate MM and OD impacts. Finally, the extension of HST MLI outcomes and analysis methodology as it applies to future returned MLI samples is discussed.

Melissa A Murray↗

Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468

Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Examples of Level Products Possible from Existing Assets

How do patterns of human environmental and infectious diseases respond to leading environmental changes, particularly to urban growth and change and the associated impacts of urbanization? We use HyspIRI high spatial resolution, multispectral, and multitemporal TIR data to track energy balance and energy flux characteristics for changing land covers/land uses through time to provide synoptic views of impacts on surface energy fluxes, emissivity and temperature and HyspIRI data in conjunction with spatial growth models to project land cover/land use changes in the future to assess impacts on natural and human ecosystems. We use multispectral thermal IR land cover maps at a high spatial resolution (60m) on a weekly basis for long-term validation of surface energy responses and changes in emissivity and integration of HyspIRI TIR data with spatial modeling to assess changes in land cover/land use through time and subsequent changes in thermal energy responses

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

MoSi2-Base Hybrid Composite Passed Engine Test

The intermetallics compound molybdenum disilicide (MoSi2) is an attractive high-temperature structural material for advanced engine applications. It has excellent oxidation resistance, a high melting point, relatively low density, and high thermal conductivity, and it is easily machined. Past research'at the NASA Lewis Research Center has resulted in the development of a hybrid composite consisting of a MoSi2 matrix reinforced with silicon nitride (Si3N4) Particulate and silicon carbide (SiC) fibers. This composite has demonstrated attractive strength, toughness, thermal fatigue, and oxidation resistance, including resistance to "pest" oxidation. These properties attracted the interest of the Office of Naval Research and Pratt & Whitney, and a joint NASA/Navy/Pratt & Whitney effort was developed to continue to mature the MoSi2 Composite technology. A turbine blade outer air seal, which was part of the Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology (IHPTET) program, was chosen as a first component on which to focus. The first tasks of the materials development effort were to develop improved processing methods to reduce costs and to use fine-diameter fibers that enable the manufacturing of complex shapes. Tape-casting methods were developed to fully infiltrate the fine SiC fibers with matrix powders. The resulting composites were hot pressed to 100-percent density. Composites with cross-plied fiber architectures with 30 vol. % hi-nicalon SiC fibers and 30 vol. % nitride particles are now made routinely and demonstrate a good balance of properties. The next task entailed the measurement of a wide variety of mechanical properties to confirm the suitability of this composite in engines. In particular, participants in this effort demonstrated that composites made with Hi-Nicalon fibers had strength and toughness properties equal to or better than those of the composites made with the large-diameter fibers that had been used previously. Another critically important property measured was impact resistance. Aircraft engine components require sufficient toughness to resist manufacturing defects, assembly damage, stress concentrations at notches, and foreign object damage. Engine company designers indicated that impact resistance would have to be measured before they would seriously consider these types of composites. The Charpy V-notch test was chosen to assess impact resistance, and both monolithic and composite versions Of MOSi2 were tested from -300 to 1400 C. The results (see the following graphs) show that nitride-particulate-reinforced MoSi2 exhibited impact resistance higher than that of many monolithic ceramics and intermetallics, and that the fiber-reinforced composites had even higher values, approaching that of cast superalloys.

Keith, Theo G., Jr.↗

Assessment of the Impact of Realistic Sensor Physics and the Integration of Ex-Core Sensors on Reactor Power Synthesis

In the work documented in this report, a weighting function–based core power synthesis method was applied to multiple Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) reactor models, which are informed based on simulated self-powered neutron detector (SPND) responses. The weighting function method used has been coined the point-based iterative (PBI) method. The goal of this application is to assess the impact of considering realistic sensor physics in the generation of the simulated SPND outputs as well as to consider how the synthesis is impacted based on the inclusion of ex-core detectors in the model. The NuScale small modular reactor (SMR) and Westinghouse AP1000 pressurized water reactor (PWR) are the models that served as the testbeds for the assessment of realistic sensor physics; this was achieved by using Geant4 SPND models in comparison with analytical models, such that the effect of electron transport in realistic SPND geometries in the Geant4 model can be understood in terms of synthesis error and convergence time. The comparison was considered for fuel burnup–induced perturbations, for a range of sensor string densities and synthesized power distribution axial fidelities. The Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor MCNP model was used to assess the impact of ex-core sensors; this was done by performing synthesis with and without the ex-core detectors and by quantifying the synthesis error and number of iterations associated with Gaussian-type perturbations in many locations in the core. The TAMU TRIGA model was particularly pertinent for this study because of the interest in future experimental tests with SPNDs in this reactor, as well as the ease of modifying the MCNP model to include ex-core detectors with heterogeneously described response functions. Results from the comparison between the Geant4 and analytical SPND models indicate that similar average and maximum synthesis errors were obtained for burnup-induced perturbations in both the NuScale SMR and the AP1000. This was true for a range of sensor string densities and axial fidelities. However, there were marked differences between both the Geant4 and analytically informed models in terms of the iterations required to converge on the synthesized power distribution. Namely, the Geant4-informed models tended to lead to fewer iterations, except for a few sensor–core configurations that had particularly numerous iterations. Results from the ex-core sensor assessment with the TAMU TRIGA model indicate that the inclusion of ex-core sensors drastically reduces the synthesis error of Gaussian-type perturbations close to the edge of the core, and it slightly reduces synthesis errors for perturbations closer to the center of the core. This was achieved with a minimal increase in computational cost—that is, the number of iterations required for convergence. The errors were identified to be in the same location as the perturbation in the core, indicating that the methodology remains robust for unperturbed regions of the core. A secondary result from this study with the TAMU TRIGA was yielded by analysis of the neutron flux levels in the in-core and ex-core sensor locations of the core; these flux levels indicate that SPNDs could be used as both in-core and ex-core sensors, so long as the emitter material is sensitive to thermal neutrons. The results from these studies provide a quantitative understanding of the importance of considering realistic sensor physics and including ex-core sensors to perform accurate and timely power distribution synthesis of a reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Strategic planning for aircraft noise route impact analysis: A three dimensional approach

The strategic routing of aircraft through navigable and controlled airspace to minimize adverse noise impact over sensitive areas is critical in the proper management and planning of the U.S. based airport system. A major objective of this phase of research is to identify, inventory, characterize, and analyze the various environmental, land planning, and regulatory data bases, along with potential three dimensional software and hardware systems that can be potentially applied for an impact assessment of any existing or planned air route. There are eight data bases that have to be assembled and developed in order to develop three dimensional aircraft route impact methodology. These data bases which cover geographical information systems, sound metrics, land use, airspace operational control measures, federal regulations and advisories, census data, and environmental attributes have been examined and aggregated. A three dimensional format is necessary for planning, analyzing space and possible noise impact, and formulating potential resolutions. The need to develop this three dimensional approach is essential due to the finite capacity of airspace for managing and planning a route system, including airport facilities. It appears that these data bases can be integrated effectively into a strategic aircraft noise routing system which should be developed as soon as possible, as part of a proactive plan applied to our FAA controlled navigable airspace for the United States.

Bragdon, C. R.↗

Space industrialization. Volume 3: World and domestic implications

The status of worldwide space industralization activities is assessed as well as the benefits to be anticipated from enhanced activities. Methods for stimulating space industralization growth are discussed with emphasis on foreign and international activities, national and world impact assessments, industry/government interfaces, legal implications, institutional implications, economics and capitalization, and implementation issues and recommendations.

Source record↗

Degradation Factor Approach for Impacted Composite Structural Assessment: MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund Final Report, Project No. 96-17

This technical memorandum documents the results of the research to develop a concept for assessing the structural integrity of impacted composite structures using the strength degradation factor in conjunction with available finite element tools. For this purpose, a literature search was conducted, a plan for conducting impact testing on two laminates was developed, and a finite element model of the impact process was created. Specimens for the impact testing were fabricated to support the impact testing plan.

Ortega, R.↗

Short-Run Marginal Emission Factors Neglect Impactful Phenomena and are Unsuitable for Assessing the Power Sector Emissions Impacts of Hydrogen Electrolysis

This comment reacts to Ruhnau and Schiele's (2023) assessment of the cost and emissions impacts of electrolytic hydrogen production operating under different green hydrogen certification requirements in the EU. We critique the paper's use of short-run marginal emissions rates to estimate emissions impacts, a methodology which the literature has shown to be inadequate for assessing the full lifecycle emissions impacts of electricity sector interventions. We hope that our response clarifies the need to consider induced structural change when assessing the greenhouse gas emissions impacts of electricity sector decisions at all scales.

electricity↗

Potential Integration Between Residual Biogenic Process Resources and Green Hydrogen [Slides]

This presentation highlights previously published analysis on the use of off-gases from biomass pyrolysis processes towards energy utilities. The potential for use of pyrolysis off-gases in existing steam reformers for green hydrogen production is assessed. Impacts on various operations within a steam reforming system (with natural gas as the primary base feed) from the introduction of pyrolysis off-gases in various proportions are quantified to assess the feasibility of reusing existing industrial facilities with renewably sourced gases.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗