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At least 361 records · Page 20

Comparison of Surface Radiation Budget Satellite algorithms for downwelled shortwave irradiance with Wisconsin Fire/SRB surface-truth data

Surface radiation instruments were operated at various locations during the Wisconsin First ISSCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) and Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) experiment in October 1986. Satellite data were distributed to scientists who had previously developed satellite algorithms to estimate downwelled shortwave irradiance. Results of intercomparison of ground-truth values with the satellite-derived estimates are described.

Whitlock, C. H.↗

Arctic and subarctic environmental analyses utilizing ERTS-1 imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provides a means of distinguishing and monitoring estuarine surface water circulation patterns and changes in the relative sediment load of discharging rivers on a regional basis. Physical boundaries mapped from ERTS-1 imagery in combination with ground truth obtained from existing small scale maps and other sources resulted in improved and more detailed maps of permafrost terrain and vegetation for the same area. Snowpack cover within a research watershed has been analyzed and compared to ground data. Large river icings along the proposed Alaska pipeline route from Prudhoe Bay to the Brooks Range have been monitored. Sea ice deformation and drift northeast of Point Barrow, Alaska have been measured during a four day period in March and shore-fast ice accumulation and ablation along the west coast of Alaska have been mapped for the spring and early summer seasons.

Anderson, D. M.↗

Geobotanical techniques for discriminating serpentine rock types in Western United States

The effectiveness of airborne multispectral imagery for identifying vegetation indicative of serpentine soils, which usually contain deposits of Ni, Cr, and Co, was examined with ground truth data. Analyses were carried out in SW Oregon, the Jasper Ridge of the Santa Cruz Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada foothills. Airborne studies were performed with 10-channel scanner, a IR scanner, and with false color composites, while ground studies classified the vegetation and mineral contents of the soil. The airborne studies were successfully used to discern serpentine soils from nonultramafic rock types, although difficulties were encountered in separating serpentine from nonserpentinized peridotite. A lack of deciduous trees on serpentized land was noted.

Mouat, D.↗

The Ceres S'COOL Project: Two Years After First Launch

The idea for the Students' Cloud Observations OnLine (S'COOL) project as an outreach and education element of NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) research program was conceived in late 1996 during a conversation with a middle school science teacher. S'COOL was implemented in a series of increasingly developed test phases during 1997, as the launch of the first CERES instrument approached. Even before launch, the reception of the project in schools far exceeded expectations. After several delays the first instrument, on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft, was launched on Thanksgiving Day, 1997. Since the first launch, development and expansion of the project has continued with expectations for launch of Terra carrying two CERES instruments into a polar orbit in mid-1998. That launch is now expected in fall 1999, and will finally provide overflight of all participating schools. In two years, the project has grown from three initial test participants to over 300 schools now participating in 23 countries on five continents. Students from first grade through university level are involved (most participants are ages 10-15). S'COOL is also being used by a few education professors to teach about Internet use in the classroom. The project continues to grow through word of mouth, presentations at teacher workshops, and now increasingly through teachers who find it during web searches. Participants in the S'COOL project are part of the CERES validation team. They provide ground truth measurements at the time the CERES instrument flies over their location, to be compared with the retrieval of cloud properties by remote sensing from CERES. Quantities reported include cloud type, height, fraction and opacity; information on contrails; surface temperature, pressure and relative humidity; and ground cover (snow/ice, wet, dry; leaves on trees or not). in addition, a comment field on the report form serves as a catch-all for all kinds of interesting observations, including similes written by some classes to describe more exactly the clouds they see. Several not totally unexpected complications with the CERES instrument and processing software mean that the CERES team has not yet reached the point of computing the cloud properties, a high level product at the end of the processing stream. However, progress is being made and we anticipate that we will soon be populating the S'COOL database with a large number of satellite retrievals for comparison with the students' observations. Some satellite retrievals from the initial test phases are already available in the database, The CERES instruments are planned to operate at least through 2006, and the S'COOL Project is planned to continue at least that long, providing motivational learning to as many students as possible. This paper reports on the first several years of the S'CCOL project. It further reports on some of the noteworthy observations and comparisons made possible by this project. Schools are often located in interesting places, in terms of the clouds found there and the satellite's ability to observe these clouds. The paper also reports on the learning opportunities delivered by this project, and on new questions about the planet and its climate which arise in the students' minds as a result of their active participation.

Chambers, Lin H.↗

Transfer of Satellite Rainfall Uncertainty from Gauged to Ungauged Regions at Regional and Seasonal Timescales

Hydrologists and other users need to know the uncertainty of the satellite rainfall data sets across the range of time/space scales over the whole domain of the data set. Here, uncertainty' refers to the general concept of the deviation' of an estimate from the reference (or ground truth) where the deviation may be defined in multiple ways. This uncertainty information can provide insight to the user on the realistic limits of utility, such as hydrologic predictability, that can be achieved with these satellite rainfall data sets. However, satellite rainfall uncertainty estimation requires ground validation (GV) precipitation data. On the other hand, satellite data will be most useful over regions that lack GV data, for example developing countries. This paper addresses the open issues for developing an appropriate uncertainty transfer scheme that can routinely estimate various uncertainty metrics across the globe by leveraging a combination of spatially-dense GV data and temporally sparse surrogate (or proxy) GV data, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products over the US spanning a record of 6 years are used as a representative example of satellite rainfall. It is shown that there exists a quantifiable spatial structure in the uncertainty of satellite data for spatial interpolation. Probabilistic analysis of sampling offered by the existing constellation of passive microwave sensors indicate that transfer of uncertainty for hydrologic applications may be effective at daily time scales or higher during the GPM era. Finally, a commonly used spatial interpolation technique (kriging), that leverages the spatial correlation of estimation uncertainty, is assessed at climatologic, seasonal, monthly and weekly timescales. It is found that the effectiveness of kriging is sensitive to the type of uncertainty metric, time scale of transfer and the density of GV data within the transfer domain. Transfer accuracy is lowest at weekly timescales with the error doubling from monthly to weekly.However, at very low GV data density (<20% of the domain), the transfer accuracy is too low to show any distinction as a function of the timescale of transfer.

Tang, Ling↗

Neural operators for stochastic modeling of nonlinear structural system response to natural hazards

Traditionally, neural networks have been employed to learn the mapping between finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, recent research has opened up new horizons, focusing on the utilization of deep neural networks to learn operators capable of mapping infinite-dimensional function spaces. Here, in this work, we employ two state-of-the-art neural operators, the deep operator network (DeepONet) and the Fourier neural operator (FNO) for the prediction of the nonlinear time history response of structural systems exposed to natural hazards, such as earthquakes and windstorms. Specifically, we propose two architectures, a self-adaptive FNO and a fast Fourier transform-based DeepONet (DeepFNOnet), where we employ a FNO beyond the DeepONet to learn the discrepancy between the ground truth and the solution predicted by the DeepONet. To demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the architectures, two problems are considered. In the first, we use the proposed model to predict the seismic nonlinear dynamic response of a six-story shear building subject to stochastic ground motions. In the second problem, we employ the operators to predict the wind-induced nonlinear dynamic response of a high-rise building while explicitly accounting for the stochastic nature of the wind excitation. In both cases, the trained metamodels achieve high accuracy while being orders of magnitude faster than their corresponding high-fidelity models.

DeepONet↗

DCP-collected absolute target reflectance signatures assist accurate interpretation of ERTS-1 imagery

Data collection platforms (DCP's) are being used at a Black Hills, South Dakota, test site (MMC 226A) to record radiometric measurements needed to determine solar and atmospheric parameters that affect ERTS-1 multispectral scanner radiance measurements. A total of 72 channels of analog data transmitted from an unattended ground truth site via three DCP's at least six times a day. The system has operated with only minor problems since September, sending forth daily measurements of biophysical responses and atmospheric conditions. Comparisons of scene radiance data calculated from ERTS images with that measured on the ground show the image-measured values to be 35 percent higher for the green channel and 20 percent higher for the red channel for the same scene targets. Radiance values for channels 6 and 7 are nearly the same from the ground data and from the imagery.

Weber, F. P.↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

Airborne Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) for peat analyses in the Canadian Northern wetlands study

The study was conducted as part of the NASA Biospherics Research on Emissions from Wetlands (BREW) program. An important aspect of the program is to investigate the terrestrial production and atmospheric distribution of methane and other gases contributing to global warming. Multi-kilometer transects of airborne (helicopter) Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data were collected periodically along the 100 km distance from the coast inland so as to obtain a regional trend in peat depth and related parameters. Global Positioning System (GPS) data were simultaneously collected from the helicopter to properly georeference the GPR data. Additional 50 m ground-based transects of GPR data were also collected as a source of ground truthing, as a calibration aid for the airborne data sets, and as a source of higher resolution data for characterizing the strata within the peat. In situ peat depth probing and soil characterizations from excavated soil pits were used to verify GPR findings. Results from the ground-based data are presented.

Pelletier-Travis, Ramona E.↗

International Conference on Remote Sensing Applications for Archaeological Research and World Heritage Conservation

Contents include the following: Monitoring the Ancient Countryside: Remote Sensing and GIS at the Chora of Chersonesos (Crimea, Ukraine). Integration of Remote Sensing and GIS for Management Decision Support in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve (Republic of Benin). Monitoring of deforestation invasion in natural reserves of northern Madagascar based on space imagery. Cartography of Kahuzi-Biega National Park. Cartography and Land Use Change of World Heritage Areas and the Benefits of Remote Sensing and GIS for Conservation. Assessing and Monitoring Vegetation in Nabq Protected Area, South Sinai, Egypt, using combine approach of Satellite Imagery and Land Surveys. Evaluation of forage resources in semi-arid savannah environments with satellite imagery: contribution to the management of a protected area (Nakuru National Park) in Kenya. SOGHA, the Surveillance of Gorilla Habitat in World Heritage sites using Space Technologies. Application of Remote Sensing to monitor the Mont-Saint-Michel Bay (France). Application of Remote Sensing & GIS for the Conservation of Natural and Cultural Heritage Sites of the Southern Province of Sri Lanka. Social and Environmental monitoring of a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve: Case Study over the Vosges du Nord and Pfalzerwald Parks using Corona and Spot Imagery. Satellite Remote Sensing as tool to Monitor Indian Reservation in the Brazilian Amazonia. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Monitoring UNESCO World Heritage Sites - A Pilot Project. Urban Green Spaces: Modern Heritage. Monitoring of the technical condition of the St. Sophia Cathedral and related monastic buildings in Kiev with Space Applications, geo-positioning systems and GIS tools. The Murghab delta palaeochannel Reconstruction on the Basis of Remote Sensing from Space. Acquisition, Registration and Application of IKONOS Space Imagery for the cultural World Heritage site at Mew, Turkmenistan. Remote Sensing and VR applications for the reconstruction of archaeological landscapes. Archaeology through Space: Experience in Indian Subcontinent. The creation of a GIS Archaeological Site Location Catalogue in Yucatan: A Tool to preserve its Cultural Heritage. Mapping the Ancient Anasazi Roads of Southeast Utah. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Identification of Conservation and Heritage sites in Urban Planning. Mapping Angkor: For a new appraisal of the Angkor region. Angkor and radar imaging: seeing a vast pre-industrial low-density, dispersed urban complex. Technical and methodological aspects of archaeological CRM integrating high resolution satellite imagery. The contribution of satellite imagery to archaeological survey: an example from western Syria. The use of satellite images, digital elevation models and ground truth for the monitoring of land degradation in the "Cinque Terre" National park. Remote Sensing and GIS Applications for Protection and Conservation of World Heritage Site on the coast - Case Study of Tamil Nadu Coast, India. Multispectral high resolution satellite imagery in combination with "traditional" remote sensing and ground survey methods to the study of archaeological landscapes. The case study of Tuscany. Use of Remotely-Sensed Imagery in Cultural Landscape. Characterisation at Fort Hood, Texas. Heritage Learning and Data Collection: Biodiversity & Heritage Conservation through Collaborative Monitoring & Research. A collaborative project by UNESCO's WHC (World Heritage Center) & The GLOBE Program (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment). Practical Remote Sensing Activities in an Interdisciplinary Master-Level Space Course.

Source record↗

The Strange Case of Ground-Coupled Airwaves on Seismoacoustic Stations at Local to Near-Regional Scales

Here we investigate the application of ground-coupled airwaves observed by seismoacoustic stations at local to near-regional scales to detect signals of interest and determine back-azimuth information. Ground-coupled airwaves are created from incident pressure waves traveling through the atmosphere that couple to the earth and transmit as a seismic wave with retrograde elliptical motion. Previous studies at sub-local scales (<10 km from a source of interest) found the back-azimuth to the source could be accurately determined from seismoacoustic signals recorded by acoustic and 3-component seismic sensors spatially separated on the order of 10 to 150 m. The potential back-azimuth directions are estimated from the coherent signals between the acoustic and vertical seismic data, via a propagation-induced phase shift of the seismoacoustic signal. A unique solution is then informed by the particle motion of the 3-component seismic station, which was previously found to be less accurate than the seismoacoustic-sensor method. We investigate the applicability of this technique to greater source-receiver distances, from 50-100 km and up to 400 km, which contains pressure waves with tropospheric and stratospheric ray paths, respectively. Specifically, we analyze seismoacoustic sources with ground truth from rocket motor fuel elimination events at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) as well as a 2020 rocket launch in Southern California. From these sources we observe evidence that while coherent signals can be seen from both sources on multiple seismoacoustic station pairs, the determined ground-coupled airwave back-azimuths are more complicated than results at more local scales. Our findings suggest more complex factors including incidence angle, coupling location, subsurface material, and atmospheric propagation effects need to be fully investigated before the ground-coupled airwave back-azimuth determination method can be applied or assessed at these further distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of varying soil moisture contents and vegetation canopies on microwave emissions

Results of NASA airborne passive microwave scans of bare and vegetated fields for comparison with ground truth tests are discussed and a model for atmospheric scattering of radiation by vegetation is detailed. On-board radiometers obtained data at 21, 2.8, and 1.67 cm during three passes over each of 46 fields, 28 of which were bare and the others having wheat or alfalfa. Ground-based sampling included moisture in five layers down to 15 cm in addition to soil temperature. The relationships among the brightness temperature and soil moisture, as well as the surface roughness and the vegetation canopy were examined. A model was developed for the dielectric coefficient and volume scattering for a vegetation medium. L- to C-band data were found useful for retrieving soil information directly. A surface moisture content of 5-35% yielded an emissivity of 0.9-0.7. The data agreed well with a combined multilayer radiative transfer model with simple roughness correction.

Burke, H.-H. K.↗

Reconstructing PM 2.5 Data Record for the Kathmandu Valley Using a Machine Learning Model

This paper presents a method for reconstructing the historical hourly concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) over the Kathmandu Valley from 1980 to the present. The method uses a machine learning model that is trained using PM2.5 readings from US Embassy (Phora Durbar) as a ground truth, and the meteorological data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA2) as input. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model acquires a credible 10-fold cross-validation (CV) score of ~83.4%, an r2-score of ~84%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ~15.82 µg/m3, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ~10.27 µg/m3. Further demonstrating the model's applicability to years other than those for which truth values are unavailable, the multiple cross-test with an unseen data set offered r2-scores for 2018, 2019, and 2020 ranging from 56% to 67%. The model-predicted data agrees with true values and indicates that MERRA2 underestimates PM2.5 over the region. It strongly agrees with ground-based evidence showing substantially higher mass concentrations in the dry pre- and post-monsoon seasons than in the monsoon months. It also shows a strong anti-correlation between PM2.5 concentration and humidity. The results also demonstrate that none of the years fulfilled the annual mean air quality index (AQI) standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

machine learning↗

The AtmoSOFAR Channel: First Direct Observations of an Elevated Acoustic Duct

The Sound Fixing and Ranging (SOFAR) channel in the ocean allows for low frequency sound to travel thousands of kilometers, making it particularly useful for detecting underwater nuclear explosions. Suggestions that an elevated SOFAR-like channel should exist in the stratosphere date back over half a century and imply that sources within this region can be reliably sensed at vast distances. However, this theory has not been supported with evidence of direct observations from sound within this channel. Here we show that an infrasound sensor on a solar hot air balloon recorded the first infrasound detection of a ground truth airborne source while within this acoustic channel, which we refer to as the AtmoSOFAR channel. Our results support the existence of the AtmoSOFAR channel, demonstrate that acoustic signals can be recorded within it, and provide insight into the characteristics of recorded signals. Results also show a lack of detections on ground-based stations, highlighting the advantages of using balloon-borne infrasound sensors to detect impulsive sources at altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe storm electricity

During FY-85, Researchers conducted a field program and analyzed data. The field program incorporated coordinated measurements made with a NASA U2. Results include the following: (1) ground truth measurements of lightning for comparison with those obtained by the U2; (2) analysis of dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning mapping data from a supercell storm; (3) analysis of synoptic conditions during three simultaneous storm systems on 13 May 1983 when unusually large numbers of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) flashes occurred; (4) analysis of extremely low frequency (ELF) wave forms; and (5) an assessment of a cloud -ground strike location system using a combination of mobile laboratory and fixed-base TV video data.

Rust, W. D.↗

Ground Testing of the MISSE-16 Materials

The harsh space environment imposes very stringent requirements upon spacecraft materials, especially those located on exterior surfaces of space objects in low Earth orbit (LEO). As humankind moves from space exploration to space commercialization, these materials may have to last for 15–20 years without considerable degradation of their optical, electrical, mechanical, and thermal properties. Operational requirements dictate that these materials continue to function according to expectations. Hence, we must understand the effects of the space environment on materials currently in use as well as on untested materials. For the years, the Materials International Space Station Experiment Flight Facility (MISSE-FF) have flown many different materials to investigate the effect of LEO space weather exposure on the performance and durability of materials and devices. The MISSE-16 scientific team members plan to launch fifteen different novel and well-characterized spacecraft-relevant materials to the LEO environment for a duration of six months during the MISSE-16 mission. Changes in spectral reflectivity will be measured throughout the mission as the samples are exposed to the space environment. The same chemical damage the produces changes in optical reflectance also causes changes in numerous other physical properties such as electrical conductivity, mechanical strength, and chemical reactivity. Correlation of the changes in each of these properties as a function of radiation type, flux, and fluence allows various material properties to be inferred from one experimentally tractable measurement: color change. Flying identical test fixtures on the ram, zenith, and wake positions of the MISSE-FF, collecting spectrally resolved images of the materials, and concomitantly measuring the ambient space environment allows deconvolution of the material effects which occur as a result of exposure to neutral atomic oxygen (AO), unfiltered solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and electrons. The flight experiment will function as a ground truth reference for our team’s ongoing laboratory-based space weather-material interactions experiments. Comparison of the MISSE-16 data with extensive testing of “flight-duplicate” samples under simulated space weather conditions will enable development of chemical models for prediction of material degradation. This paper discusses preliminary results from the ground test campaign including measurements of UV/VIS/IR reflectance spectra, bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), surface potential decay, and surface morphology under electron and AO exposure.

Elena A. Plis↗

High precision control and deep learning-based corn stand counting algorithms for agricultural robot

This paper presents high precision control and deep learning-based corn stand counting algorithms for a low-cost, ultra-compact 3D printed and autonomous field robot for agricultural operations. Currently, plant traits, such as emergence rate, biomass, vigor, and stand counting, are measured manually. This is highly labor-intensive and prone to errors. The robot, termed TerraSentia, is designed to automate the measurement of plant traits for efficient phenotyping as an alternative to manual measurements. In this paper, we formulate a Nonlinear Moving Horizon Estimator that identifies key terrain parameters using onboard robot sensors and a learning-based Nonlinear Model Predictive Control that ensures high precision path tracking in the presence of unknown wheel-terrain interaction. Moreover, we develop a machine vision algorithm designed to enable an ultra-compact ground robot to count corn stands by driving through the fields autonomously. The algorithm leverages a deep network to detect corn plants in images, and a visual tracking model to re-identify detected objects at different time steps. We collected data from 53 corn plots in various fields for corn plants around 14 days after emergence (stage V3 - V4). The robot predictions have agreed well with the ground truth with C robot =1.02×C human -0.86 and a correlation coefficient R=0.96. The mean relative error given by the algorithm is -3.78%, and the standard deviation is 6.76%. These results indicate a first and significant step towards autonomous robot-based real-time phenotyping using low-cost, ultra-compact ground robots for corn and potentially other crops.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗