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At least 361 records · Page 20

Bounds on Lithospheric Thickness on Venus from Magellan Gravity and Topography Data

The primary objective of the work executed under NAGW-4784 is to provide constraints on the thermal and tectonic evolution of Venus. Establishing thermal and tectonic evolution models requires not only geological, but geophysical constraints, in particular the nature of temporal and spatial variations in crustal and lithospheric thickness. The major topics of study completed under NAGW-4784 (described more fully below) are: (1) detailed analyses of the resolution of Magellan Line-Of-Site (LOS) Doppler data to establish the minimum resolvable wavelength in the gravity data; (2) calculations of the global strain field in the venusian lithosphere and comparisons with global strain patterns from geological mapping; (3) study of the geological history of coronae at E. Eistla Regio; (4) estimation of crustal and lithospheric thickness by modeling of topography at asymmetric and symmetric rift-like chasmata; (5) preliminary investigations of spatial versus temporal variations in lithospheric thickness. Both the PI and Co-I have presented papers based on these topics at national and international meetings (American Geophysical Union Meetings, Lunar and Planetary Science Conferences, Chapman Conference on the Geodynamics of Venus).

Johnson, Catherine L.↗

Generalization of Deep-Learning Models for Classification of Local Distance Earthquakes and Explosions across Various Geologic Settings

Although accurately classifying signals from earthquakes and explosions at local distance (<250 km) remains an important task for seismic network operations, the growing volume of available seismic data presents a challenge for analysts using traditional source discrimination techniques. In recent years, deep-learning models have proven effective at discriminating between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions measured at local distances, but it is not clear how well these models are capable of generalizing across different geological settings. To address the issue of generalization between regions, we train deep-learning models (convolutional neural networks [CNNs]) on time–frequency representations (scalograms) of three-component earthquake and explosion signals from eight different regions in the continental United States. We explore scenarios where models are trained on data from all regions, individual regions, or all but one region. We find that although CNN models trained on individual regions do not necessarily generalize well across different settings, models trained on multiple regions that include diverse path coverage generalize to new regions, with station-level accuracy of up to 90% or more for data sets from unseen regions. In general, CNN-based discrimination models significantly outperform models based on uncorrected P/S ratio (measured in the 10–18 Hz frequency band), even when CNN models are tested on data from entirely unseen regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗

Magnetic structure of the crust

The bibuniqueness aspect of geophysical interpretation must be constrained by geological insight to limit the range of theoretically possible models. An additional step in depth understanding of the relationship between rock magnetization and geological circumstances on a grand scale is required. Views about crustal structure and the distribution of lithologies suggests a complex situation with lateral and vertical variability at all levels in the crust. Volcanic, plutonic, and metamorphic processes together with each of the observed anomalies. Important questions are addressed: (1) the location of the magnetic bottom; (2) whether the source is a discrete one or are certain parts of the crust cumulatively contributing to the overall magnetization; (3) if the anomaly to some recognizable surface expression is localized, how to arrive at a geologically realistic model incorporating magnetization contrasts which are realistic; (3) in the way the primary mineralogies are altered by metamorphism and the resulting magnetic contracts; (4) the effects of temperature and pressure on magnetization.

Wasilewski, P.↗

Geographic source attribution of honey by strontium isotope analyses: Latvia and India measurements compared to model predictions in a feasibility study

Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) can be used to determine the geographic origin of agricultural products. Here, in this study, we measured the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey samples from Richland, WA, USA, Latvia, and India, and compared the results to published 87 Sr/ 86 Sr from surrounding areas and values predicted based upon a random forest isoscape model (Bataille et al., 2020). While the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples compared well with previously published data, the model did not accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples, demonstrating that further refinement of the model would be beneficial. Because Sr cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey is likely to reflect several sources (e.g., nectar, surface water, dust) and may change over time. In order to accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey, models must consider local geology, ecology, and bee behavior. Additional research examining how Sr is incorporated into honey is needed to inform models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simulating Isotropic Rayleigh Wave Horizontal to Vertical Ratios at Rock Valley

Elastic anisotropy in the subsurface can manifest from pre-existing structure or stress-induced cracking – both phenomena are of interest at the Rock Valley site in Nevada. The azimuthal dependence of Rayleigh wave ellipticity, also known as H/V, can reveal elastic anisotropy, but the effect of isotropic variability in H/V must first be accounted for. To that end, we simulate synthetic seismograms from a ring of sources in a fully 3-D isotropic velocity model that captures the geology at Rock Valley. We measure H/V from these waveforms and compare them with H/V predictions obtained using 1D models extracted at specific locations from the 3D model. We find that an average of the azimuthal H/V measurements from the 3-D simulations and 1-D predictions agree, but that the azimuthal variability of H/V is a large fraction of the mean value. These results estimate the noise character in azimuthal H/V so it can be factored out of future anisotropic simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. River deltas globally might lose 5% (~35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The extraordinary radar echoes from Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto - A geological perspective

Electromagnetic echo-scattering models, empirical and theoretical considerations on regolith formation, and ice physics, are presently invoked in a geologic treatment of the anomalous radar properties of the icy Galilean satellites. These are held to arise because of the electrical differences between ice and silicates, and the absence of icy regoliths' ice-density structures in silicate regoliths. Icy regoliths may uniquely smooth out discontinuities between solid ejecta fragments and more porous surroundings, forming refraction-scattering 'lenses'; high-order multiple scatterings will thereby become more likely responsible for the echoes than low-order scattering.

Ostro, Steven J.↗

An Alternative Conceptual Model for the Spent Nuclear Fuel–Water Interaction in Deep Geologic Disposal Conditions

For the long-term safety assessment of direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep geologic repositories, knowledge on the radionuclide release rate from the UO 2 matrix is essential. This work provides a conceptual model to explain the results of leaching experiments involving used nuclear fuel or simulant materials in confirmed reducing conditions. Key elements of this model are: direct effect of radiation from radiolytic species (including defects and excited states) in the solid and in the first water layers in contact with its surface; and excess H 2 may be produced due to processes occurring at the surface of the spent fuel and in confined water volumes, which may also play a role in keeping the spent fuel surface in a reduced state. The implication is that the fractional radionuclide release rate used in most long-term safety assessments (10 -7 year -1 ) is over estimated because it assumes that there is net UO 2 oxidation caused by radiolysis, in contrast with the alternative conceptual model presented here. Furthermore, conventional water radiolysis models and radiation chemical yields published in the literature are not directly applicable to a heterogeneous system such as the spent fuel–water interface. Suggestions are provided for future work to develop more reliable models for the long-term safety assessment of spent nuclear fuel disposal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling surface deformations at complex strike-slip plate boundaries

Two new versions of the physical base-traction model of Li and Rice (1987) have been developed to study the loading processes and surface deformation near plate boundaries with geometric complexities, including a shallow creeping fault segment and two subparallel faults. Predictions of surface velocity and surface slip rate for the region between the San Andreas fault and the Pacific coast at the latitude of the Parkfield-Cholame segment using model parameters based on geologic, geodetic, and seismic considerations were found to be in good agreement with contemporary geodetic field data (not used in constrainning model parameters). Also, predicted surface velocity for the Salton Sea-Coachella Valley area were fit to recently derived contemporary geodetic data and very large baseline interferometry data, althoug here the model parameters are not well constrained.

Li, Victor C.↗

Numerical modeling of ooid size and the problem of Neoproterozoic giant ooids

Temporal variation in ooid size reflects important changes in physical and chemical characteristics of depositional environments. Two numerical models are used to evaluate the effects of several processes influencing ooid size. The first demonstrates that low supply of new ooid nuclei and high cortex growth rate each promote growth of large ooids. The second model demonstrates that high average water velocity and velocity gradient also enhance ooid growth. Several Neoproterozoic oolites contain unusually large ooids, some reaching diameters of up to 16 mm. While lower nuclei supply and higher ooid growth rate may have prevailed prior to the evolution of carbonate-secreting organisms, neither difference can explain the presence of giant ooids in Neoproterozoic deposits because Archean through Mesoproterozoic ooids rarely exceed 5 mm in diameter. In the presence of lower nuclei supply and higher growth rate, high average water velocity may have allowed growth of such large ooids. Higher average water velocity could have been due to a prevalence of carbonate ramps over rimmed shelves during Neoproterozoic time.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Dimensionally Reduced Model for Rapid and Accurate Prediction of Gas Saturation, Pressure, and Brine Production in a CO 2 Storage Application: Case Study Using the SACROC Field as Part of SMART Task 5

This technical report presents work conducted by the sub surface analysis team of the Strategic Systems Analysis & Engineering group at NETL for Task 5 of SMART Phase 1. This study involved the development of deep learning models for CO 2 geologic storage that are capable of accurate prediction of spatio-temporal outputs of CO 2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in three dimensional space over a storage operation's injection and post-injection timeframes. The model framework involves ensembling multi-layer encoder networks that provide dimesionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction This approach offers a means to maximize training time efficiency, reduce computational memory burden, and minimize prediction turnaround.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of CO 2 trapping mechanisms in partially depleted oil-bearing sands

The goal of this work is to evaluate various CO 2 sequestration mechanisms occurring in the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit. A history-matched numerical simulation model was created using extensive geological, petrophysical, and operational data collected from the field. The numerical model is competent to investigate the impact of residual, structural-stratigraphic, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms on the fluid transportation dynamics and petrophysical property variations. The model forecasts the field response of 20 years of WAG injections. Afterward, all wells were shut-in, and the reservoir was allowed to evolve for 1000 years to investigate the fate of injected CO 2 . In this paper, we assess the impacts of various trapping mechanisms on oil recovery and CO 2 storage efficacy. By analyzing the results reported from the numerical simulation model, the in-situ fluid composition and mineralogy changes are also investigated. More importantly, we seek to confirm the petrophysical property variations due to the CO 2 injection with observations from laboratory measurements. The experiences gained from this study provide valuable insights regarding physiochemical storage induced by the CO 2 injection activities and serve as a benchmark case for future CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects involving reactive solute transport.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Numerical Modeling of Anisotropic Elastic-Wave Sensitivity Propagation for Optimal Design of Time-Lapse Seismic Surveys

Reliable subsurface time-lapse seismic monitoring is crucial for many geophysical applications, such as enhanced geothermal system characterization, geologic carbon utilization and storage, and conventional and unconventional oil/gas reservoir characterization, etc. In this work, we develop an elastic-wave sensitivity propagation method for optimal design of cost-effective time-lapse seismic surveys considering the fact that most of subsurface geologic layers and fractured reservoirs are anisotropic instead of isotropic. For anisotropic media, we define monitoring criteria using qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies after decomposing qP- and qS-wave components from the total elastic-wave sensitivity wavefield using a hybrid time- and frequency-domain approach. Geophones should therefore be placed at locations with significant qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring in an anisotropic geology setting. Our numerical modeling results for a modified anisotropic Hess model demonstrate that, compared with the isotropic case, subsurface anisotropy changes the spatial distributions of elastic-wave sensitivity energies. Consequently, it is necessary to consider subsurface anisotropies when designing the spatial distribution of geophones for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring. This finding suggests that it is essential to use our new anisotropic elastic-wave sensitivity modeling method for optimal design of time-lapse seismic surveys to reliably monitor the changes in subsurface reservoirs, fracture zones or target monitoring regions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ishtar deformed belts: Evidence for deformation from below?

The mountain belts of Ishtar Terra are unique on Venus. Models for their formation include mantle upwelling, mantle downwelling, and horizontal convergence. The present forms of these models are too simple to predict surface strain, topography, or gravity. More detailed models will require specific constraints as imposed by geologic relations. In order to develop specific constraints for geodynamic models, we examine the geology of Ishtar Terra as viewed in Magellan SAR imagery in an attempt to interpret regional surface strain patterns. In this paper, we present geologic and structural relations that leads us to postulate that Ishtar deformed belts result from shear forces within the mantle acting on the lithosphere, and not by horizontal forces from colliding plates. We propose that the surface strains result from differential strain and displacement of domains within the upper mantle, and that further analysis of Ishtar deformation may allow us to identify individual domains within the mantle, and to constrain displacement trajectories between domains.

Hansen, V. L.↗

Thermal inertia imaging - A new geologic mapping tool

A thermal model of the earth's surface has been developed and used to determine the thermal inertia of a test site in the Mojave Desert, California. The model, which includes meteorological heating terms as well as radiation and conduction heating terms, is used with remotely sensed surface temperature and reflectance data to determine the thermal inertia of the surface materials at the test site. The thermal inertia is displayed in image form, and can aid in the differentiation of the various lithologic materials in the test site. Since this thermal property is representative of the upper several cm of the surface, it complements visible and reflected near-IR image data.

Kahle, A. B.↗

NETL Plastic Pipes Project (Final Report)

Plastic or composite pipelines have been the bane of the utility locating industry because they are neither conductive nor magnetic which are the properties traditionally used to locate buried utilities. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is an effective geophysical tool for locating plastic/composite pipelines where resistive cover allows for adequate penetration of radar energy. However, GPR has limited applicability in areas where the soil cover is conductive due to significant clay and/or salt content. This study examines complementary near-surface geophysical methods that are potentially useful for locating buried plastic/composite pipelines, either singly or in combination. Specifically, this modeling study used computational numerical methods to forward model the response of GPR, resistivity, seismic, gravity gradiometry, and photoacoustic/thermoacoustic imaging methods to plastic/composite pipelines for various scenarios including: (1) pipe diameters ranging between 2 in. to 12 in.; (2) burial depths ranging between 3 ft. to 4 ft.; (3) various degrees in contrast in physical properties (i.e., electrical permittivity, elasticity, resistivity, density); and (4) various experimental acquisition choices (e.g., GPR radar and seismic source frequencies, electrode spacing). Numerical modeling performed herein reconfirmed that GPR is the preferred method for detecting/locating plastic pipelines. A caveat for GPR detection is that the material covering the plastic pipe (trench fill material and adjacent soil) must be sufficiently resistive to allow the two-way propagation to the required depth of investigation and back to the surface. GPR was the only method modeled in this study that can be used to directly detect plastic pipelines of 2-in.-diameter and larger when buried 3-ft-deep. GPR data processing and imaging also can determine pipe depth, pipe diameter, trench dimensions, and moisture conditions. Seismic modeling results suggest that direct detection of a 12-in.-diameter plastic pipe at 3-ft.-depth may be possible under favorable conditions; however, the associated signature would be weak (e.g., surface- to S-wave, backscattered surface-waves, and/or forward scattered surface-waves to S-wave). Direct pipe detection under field conditions with noise and strong lateral geologic heterogeneity is doubtful. Numerical modeling also suggests that plastic pipelines can be indirectly located by detecting the trench in which they are buried. GPR, direct current (DC) resistivity, and seismic methods have the potential to locate the pipeline trench if there is sufficient contrast between the trench-wall and trench-fill materials for the physical property being measured by each method (i.e., electrical permittivity for GPR; resistivity for DC resistivity; or density, compressional velocity, or shear velocity for seismic). Modeling also indicated that currently available (commercial) gravity gradiometers would be unable to directly detect/locate plastic pipelines ≤ 8-in.-diameter when buried 3-ft.-deep given the typical instrument noise floor for field surveying as well as the expected density variations due to geologic heterogeneity. The numerical modeling performed in this project did not identify a universal geophysical technology that can locate buried plastic pipelines in all parts of the United States (although GPR is suggested for all areas with resistive cover). However, the project results suggest that a towed land streamer simultaneously acquiring multiple geophysical data types including multi-offset GPR, multi-channel DC resistivity, seismic geophone- and/or distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), and potentially photoacoustic/thermoacoustic data would be an appropriate platform for locating buried plastic pipeline. Moreover, the complementary multiphysics data acquired by a towed land streamer would permit the use of joint and/or cooperative inversion frameworks for a more rigorous and consistent data interpretation.

42 ENGINEERING↗