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At least 361 records · Page 20

Characterizing juvenile salmon predation risk during early marine residence

Predation mortality can influence the distribution and abundance of fish populations. While predation is often assessed using direct observations of prey consumption, potential predation can be predicted from co-occurring predator and prey densities under varying environmental conditions. Juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. (i.e., smolts) from the Columbia River Basin experience elevated mortality during the transition from estuarine to ocean habitat, but a thorough understanding of the role of predation remains incomplete. We used a Holling type II functional response to estimate smolt predation risk based on observations of piscivorous seabirds (sooty shearwater [ Ardenna griseus ] and common murre [ Uria aalge ]) and local densities of alternative prey fish including northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ) in Oregon and Washington coastal waters during May and June 2010–2012. We evaluated predation risk relative to the availability of alternative prey and physical factors including turbidity and Columbia River plume area, and compared risk to returns of adult salmon. Seabirds and smolts consistently co-occurred at sampling stations throughout most of the study area (mean = 0.79 ± 0.41, SD), indicating that juvenile salmon are regularly exposed to avian predators during early marine residence. Predation risk for juvenile coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), yearling Chinook salmon ( O . tshawytscha ), and subyearling Chinook salmon was on average 70% lower when alternative prey were present. Predation risk was greater in turbid waters, and decreased as water clarity increased. Juvenile coho and yearling Chinook salmon predation risk was lower when river plume surface areas were greater than 15,000 km 2 , while the opposite was estimated for subyearling Chinook salmon. These results suggest that plume area, turbidity, and forage fish abundance near the mouth of the Columbia River, all of which are influenced by river discharge, are useful indicators of potential juvenile salmon mortality that could inform salmonid management.

Phillips, Elizabeth M. (ORCID:0000000327752563)↗

plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

plutus is an R package that post-processes outputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to calculate the power sector capital investment costs and stranded asset costs associated with GCAM projections of electricity generation by technology. GCAM is a market equilibrium model used to examine the dynamics of the coupled human-Earth system and the response of this system to global change, including socioeconomics, technology, climate, and policy. GCAM tracks electricity generation by technology and vintage over 32 geopolitical regions throughout the lifetime of each generating technology. plutus extends GCAM functionality by (1) estimating the foregone economic value of prematurely retired power plants as a result of economic-induced retirements compared to scheduled lifetimes; and (2) estimating the new installations and capital investments driven by future changes in economic, energy, agriculture, and land-use systems in GCAM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan Update for 2016

The Packaging Surveillance Program section of the Department of Energy (DOE) Manual 441.1-1, Nuclear Material Packaging Manual (DOE 2008), requires DOE contractors to “ensure that a surveillance program is established and implemented to ensure the nuclear material storage package continues to meet its design criteria.” The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan was first issued in FY 2013 (Kelly et al. 2013). The surveillance plan is reviewed annually and updated as necessary based on SAVY-4000 surveillance and other surveillance findings, as well as results of the lifetime extension studies (Blair et al. 2012, Weis et al. 2015a). The LANL SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan Update was issued in 2014 (Kelly et al. 2014). This 2016 update reflects changes to the surveillance plan resulting from restrictions on handling residue materials greater than 500 g, the addition of specific engineering judgment containers, and 2015 surveillance findings. The SAVY-4000 container has a design life of five years, which was chosen as a conservative estimate of the functional properties of the materials used in the construction of the SAVY 4000 when exposed to the potential insults including temperature, corrosive materials and gases, and radiation. The SAVY-4000 container design basis is described in a safety analysis report (Anderson et al. 2013). In the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA’s) approval of the safety analysis report, it was recommended that the design life clock begin on March 2014 (Nez et al. 2014). However, it is expected that a technical basis can be developed to extend the design life of the SAVY-4000 containers to approximately 40 years (Blair et al. 2012, Weis et al. 2015a). This surveillance plan update covers five years (2015–2019) and is developed to ensure SAVY-4000 containers meet their design criteria over the current five-year design life and to gather data that can be used in developing the technical basis for a 40-year design life. The technical basis for the longer design life will be developed based on the results of this surveillance plan and the concurrent lifetime extension studies (Blair et al. 2012, Weis et al. 2015a). A long-term surveillance plan will be developed by the completion of this plan and will be based on the results of the first several years of this five-year surveillance plan and the lifetime extension studies. In addition, the current Hagan container population is so large (approximately 3,500 LANL-wide, approximately 3,000 in PF-4) that it is anticipated Hagan containers will be in use for many years to come. Therefore, this plan includes surveillance activities for the Hagan container system during the time it takes to replace the Hagan containers with manually-compliant containers such as the SAVY 4000. These Hagan examinations not only provide information to determine if additional Hagan surveillance is needed, but also support SAVY lifetime-extension studies because some of the container components are made from similar material (e.g., stainless steel and Viton).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Conceptual design of hollow electron lenses for beam halo control in the Large Hadron Collider

Collimation with hollow electron beams is a technique for halo control in high-power hadron beams. It is based on an electron beam (possibly pulsed or modulated in intensity) guided by strong axial magnetic fields which overlaps with the circulating beam in a short section of the ring. The concept was tested experimentally at the Fermilab Tevatron collider using a hollow electron gun installed in one of the Tevatron electron lenses. We are proposing a conceptual design for applying this technique to the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. A prototype hollow electron gun for the LHC was built and tested. The expected performance of the hollow electron beam collimator was based on Tevatron experiments and on numerical tracking simulations. Halo removal rates and enhancements of halo diffusivity were estimated as a function of beam and lattice parameters. Proton beam core lifetimes and emittance growth rates were checked to ensure that undesired effects were suppressed. Hardware specifications were based on the Tevatron devices and on preliminary engineering integration studies in the LHC machine. Required resources and a possible timeline were also outlined, together with a brief discussion of alternative halo-removal schemes and of other possible uses of electron lenses to improve the performance of the LHC.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Simulations of Two Heavily Confined PBX 9502 Cook-off Experiments.

Finite element models of two cook-off experiments were constructed using the Aria code.These experiments provided thermocouple measurements that were used as boundary conditions to carry out finite element (FE) simulations and comparisons of the FE thermal response with internal temperature measurements in the PBX 9502. These FE models contain a pressure dependent PBX 9502 thermal decomposition model developed by Hobbs’ et al.. Comparisons of the FE results and the experiments are presented. These comparisons assess the predictive capabilities of Hobbs’ model under the experimental conditions. Limiting cases of the PBX 9502 decomposition model are considered. Two parameterizations associated with the pressure dependency of the PBX 9502 decomposition model were carried out to fit the experiments using internal temperature measurements. Two inverse heat conduction problems were implemented to estimate temperatures as functions of time at locations on the outer surface of the PBX 9502. Thermocouple conduction error studies were carried out to assess the comparisons of the FE model thermal response with the experiments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Experimental Evaluation of Refrigerant Leak Characteristics for Different HVAC&R Equipment Types

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technology Office (BTO) and the Air-conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Technology Institute (AHRTI) collaborated to sponsor an experimental study of refrigerant leak characteristics at ORNL; AHRTI project 9012. The original objectives were to conduct refrigerant leak tests on several heating, ventilating, air conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems under operating conditions representative of actual applications to document the pressure decay rate and the mass flow rate of leaked refrigerant as a function of time. Estimates of the quality (vapor versus liquid) of the leaking refrigerant and oil escaping with the leak were also desired. The project involved imposing refrigerant leaks on five systems and collecting data to meet the project objectives. Systems chosen covered three air-conditioning (AC) applications (packaged terminal AC or PTAC, 3-ton residential split system AC, and 5-ton packaged rooftop AC) and two refrigeration applications (split system unit cooler, and standalone display case). AHRTI members donated the test systems used for the project. The systems were to be tested at two different leak rates (catastrophic high rate simulating full line break and a lower flow rate), two leak locations (high-pressure side and low-pressure side), and two operating conditions (compressor on or off).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Beyond Generalized Eigenvalues

Two analysis techniques, the generalized eigenvalue method (GEM) or Prony's method (PM), are commonly used to analyze statistical estimates of correlation functions produced in lattice quantum field theory calculations. GEM takes full advantage of the matrix structure of correlation functions but only considers individual pairs of time separations when much more data exists. PM can be applied to many time separations and many individual matrix elements simultaneously but does not fully exploit the matrix structure of the correlation function. We combine both these methods into a single framework based on matrix polynomials which we call block Prony method (BPM).

Fleming, George T.↗

Evaluating the Influence of Plants on Hydrologic Cycling: Quantifying and Validating the Role of Plant Processes and Stomatal Conductance (Final Report)

Plants can exert strong controls on water cycling, both locally and across the globe. The impacts are driven by how plants control the exchange of water and energy between the land and the atmosphere, which in turn are influenced by how plants photosynthesize and grow (e.g. biogeochemical cycling). Our team has shown previously that plant responses to increasing CO 2 in the atmosphere can influence the water cycle through changes in rainfall and the amount of water on land with implications for drought. Plant responses can also alter both average and extreme flow of water in rivers, with implications for freshwater availability and flood frequency. Although the impact of plant responses on water cycling has been demonstrated to exist, significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of the magnitude and form of the plant responses themselves, as well as their ultimate impact on water availability for people and ecosystems. In this project we worked to quantify the role of plant processes in regulating water cycling (e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, droughts, etc.). We addressed the following objectives: quantify the control of physiological vs. radiative effects on water cycling across many coupled models in idealized and realistic scenarios, as well as to quantify how our assumptions about leaf-level processes (e.g. coupling between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis), and organism-level processes (e.g. leaf area response to high CO 2 ) contributed to uncertainties and biases in water cycling. We focused on the impact of these processes on water cycling to assess the sensitivities of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff to model assumptions about plant processes at the leaf, organism, and community level. As part of this project we used measurements of stable carbon isotopes to generate observationally based estimates of plant functioning during the historical period. This work is directly relevant to DOE’s primary scientific research questions in the RGMA topic area (b) on Biogeochemical processes, feedbacks, and interactions in the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report for Closing the Loop Between In Situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Complexity

Characterizing in situ stress is essential in Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) for both risk assessment and operation design. Standard stress measurement techniques such as diagnostic fracture injection tests (DFITs) require creating hydraulic fractures and apply analytical methods such as the G -function analysis to estimate the stress. These classical approaches rely on several assumptions, including but not limited to: (i) the induced fracture is planar and persistent, and (ii) the fracture plane is normal to the minimum horizontal stress. However, these assumptions may not hold in EGS environments like Utah FORGE, where thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupling, wellbore deviation, and rock heterogeneity can alter the local stress condition and consequently lead to fracture complexities in both near-well and far-field regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quantifying automated vehicle benefits in reducing driving stress: a simulation experiment approach

Driving is a stressful activity because of the mental workload required to maneuver a vehicle in certain travel contexts, such as congested traffic, multi-modal networks requiring complex interaction with surrounding vehicles, and aggressive driving. Autonomous vehicles (AVs), on the other hand, can reduce the mental workload by performing most of the driving tasks and providing users with a comfortable ride. This study develops a pathway model to relate different health determinants, including travel reliability, safety, driving comfort, and value of time, to Autonomous vehicles driving and studies their impact on the value of driving stress. A case study example of Autonomous vehicles simulation is used to determine the impact of these health determinants. The value of driving stress in Autonomous vehicles is estimated as a function of the value of these individual health determinants. The results show that the perception of safe or unsafe driving in Autonomous vehicles is the most important factor in changing the perception of driving stress in Autonomous vehicles. Similarly, perceptions of comfortable driving in Autonomous vehicles and reduced workload with a higher value of time also reduce driving stress in Autonomous vehicles. These results allow Autonomous vehicles adoption models to explicitly consider driving stress reduction as a benefit and can improve understanding of Autonomous vehicles adoption, which may require quantitative analysis of underlying motivating benefits, including driving stress reduction.

Khattak, Zulqarnain H.↗

L{sub CO}{sup ′}/L{sub FIR} relations with CO rotational ladders of galaxies across the Herschel spire archive

We present a catalog of all CO (J = 4−3 through J = 13−12), [C i], and [N ii] lines available from extragalactic spectra from the Herschel SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) archive combined with observations of the low-J CO lines from the literature and from the Arizona Radio Observatory. This work examines the relationships between L {sub FIR}, L{sub CO}{sup ′}, and L {sub CO}/L {sub CO,1−0}. We also present a new method for estimating probability distribution functions from marginal signal-to-noise ratio Herschel FTS spectra, which takes into account the instrumental “ringing” and the resulting highly correlated nature of the spectra. The slopes of log(L {sub FIR}) versus log(L{sub CO}{sup ′}) are linear for all mid- to high-J CO lines and slightly sublinear if restricted to (ultra)luminous infrared galaxies ((U)LIRGs). The mid- to high-J CO luminosity relative to CO J = 1−0 increases with increasing L {sub FIR}, indicating higher excitement of the molecular gas, although these ratios do not exceed ∼180. For a given bin in L {sub FIR}, the luminosities relative to CO J = 1−0 remain relatively flat from J = 6−5 through J = 13−12, across three orders of magnitude of L {sub FIR}. A single component theoretical photodissociation region (PDR) model cannot match these flat SLED shapes, although combinations of PDR models with mechanical heating added qualitatively match the shapes, indicating the need for further comprehensive modeling of the excitation processes of warm molecular gas in nearby galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Online Generalized Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin Method (GMsDGM) for Flows in Heterogeneous Media

Abstract Offline computation is an essential component in most multiscale model reduction techniques. However, there are multiscale problems in which offline procedure is insufficient to give accurate representations of solutions, due to the fact that offline computations are typically performed locally and global information is missing in these offline information. To tackle this difficulty, we develop an online local adaptivity technique for local multiscale model reduction problems. We design new online basis functions within Discontinuous Galerkin method based on local residuals and some optimally estimates. The resulting basis functions are able to capture the solution efficiently and accurately, and are added to the approximation iteratively. Moreover, we show that the iterative procedure is convergent with a rate independent of physical scales if the initial space is chosen carefully. Our analysis also gives a guideline on how to choose the initial space. We present some numerical examples to show the performance of the proposed method.

Physics↗

Vortex Cores in Narrow Thin-Film Strips

In this work, we study vortex current distributions in narrow thin-film superconducting strips with the help of analytic expression of the vortex current derived within the London theory. Using definition of the vortex core “boundary” as a curve where the current reaches the depairing value, vortex core size and shape are estimated as a function of vortex position in the strip. We show that the core size near the strip edges is smaller than in the rest of the strip, indicating that the Bardeen–Stephen flux-flow resistivity should be reduced near the edges. Moreover, at elevated temperatures, when the depairing current is small, the vortex core may extend to the whole strip width, thus turning into an edge-to-edge phase-slip line.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Detection Identification and Quantification of Keto-Hydroperoxides in Low-Temperature Oxidation.

Keto-hydroperoxides are reactive partially oxidized intermediates that play a central role in chain-branching reactions during the low-temperature oxidation of hydrocarbons. In this Perspective, we outline how these short lived species can be detected, identified, and quantified using integrated experimental and theoretical approaches. The procedures are based on direct molecular-beam sampling from reactive environments, followed by mass spectrometry with single-photon ionization, identification of fragmentation patterns, and theoretical calculations of ionization thresholds, fragment appearance energies, and photoionization cross sections. Using the oxidation of neo-pentane and tetrahydrofuran as examples, the individual steps of the experimental approaches are described in depth together with a detailed description of the theoretical efforts. For neo-pentane, the experimental data are consistent with the calculated ionization and fragment appearance energies of the keto-hydroperoxide, thus adding confidence to the analysis routines and the employed levels of theory. For tetrahydrofuran, multiple keto-hydroperoxide isomers are possible due to the presence of nonequivalent O 2 addition sites. Despite this additional complexity, the experimental data allow for the identification of two to four keto-hydroperoxides. Mole fraction profiles of the keto-hydroperoxides, which are quantified using calculated photoionization cross sections, are provided together with estimated uncertainties as function of the temperature of the reactive mixture and can serve as validation targets for chemically detailed mechanisms.

Hansen, Nils↗

Monte Carlo Uncertainty Quantification for an Unattended Enrichment Monitor

As a case study for uncertainty analysis, we consider a model flow monitor for measuring enrichment in gas centrifuge enrichment plants (GCEPs) that could provide continuous monitoring of all declared gas flow and provide high-accuracy gas enrichment estimates as a function of time. The monitor system could include NaI(Tl) gamma-ray spectrometers, a pressure signal-sharing device to be installed on an operator\rq{}s pressure gauge or a dedicated inspector pressure sensor, and temperature sensors attached to the outside of the header pipe, to provide pressure, temperature, and gamma-ray spectra measurements of UF$_6$ gas flow through unit header pipes. Our study builds on previous modeling and analysis methods development for enrichment monitor concepts and a software tool that was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to generate and analyze synthetic data.

international safeguards↗

Spatially Explicit Modeling of Criteria Air Pollutants from Agricultural and Forestry Feedstock Production

The Feedstock Production Emissions to Air Model (FPEAM) is a spatially explicit supply chain model that quantifies criteria air pollutants and precursors generated by biomass production, harvest and transportation to biorefineries. FPEAM was most recently used for the 2016 Billion Ton Study (BTS) published by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office. This presentation describes several use cases for the model, and provides an overview of recent restructuring that increases FPEAM's usability and functionality. FPEAM currently estimates emissions of volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and carbon monoxide from on-farm equipment operation, on-farm fugitive dust, on-farm chemical (fertilizer, herbicide and insecticide) application, and biomass transportation. These calculations are implemented within FPEAM as modules, which independently perform calculations for each emissions category. This structure allows users to include or exclude emissions categories according to the goal and scope of their analysis. Each module's input data defines the activities taking place with information including fuel combusted, chemicals applied, and equipment used. Users can replace or augment the default input data to quantify additional pollutant types, emissions categories, farming practices and biomass types. Emissions from biomass transportation and on-farm equipment operation are by default calculated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) and NONROAD model, respectively. These models - which are computationally intensive but provide detailed results - can optionally be replaced with user-provided emissions factors for fuel combustion and vehicle operation. This approach reduces FPEAM's runtime and allows users to run sensitivity analyses around biomass production and transportation scenarios. Other enhancements currently under development are the use of farm-to-biorefinery route information to increase the spatial resolution of transportation emissions, and a module to connect FPEAM and the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP), which will enable the quantification of human health impacts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Compressive sensing optical design and simulation tool

A system or method for designing optical systems includes generating a mathematical model of an imaging system; tracing a plurality of light rays from a source through the model of the imaging system in a forward direction and a backward direction incident upon an arbitrarily defined detector location; calculating the total light rays incident upon the arbitrarily defined detector location in response to the plurality of light rays; tracing a series of calibration images first through the computational or compressive imager mathematical model; measuring an output set of parameters based on a plurality of detected rays calibration images at the defined detector location; storing the output set of parameters in software, and determining an estimated system transfer function.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Beyond Generalized Eigenvalues in Lattice Quantum Field Theory

Two analysis techniques, the generalized eigenvalue method (GEM) or Prony's (or related) method (PM), are commonly used to analyze statistical estimates of correlation functions produced in lattice quantum field theory calculations. GEM takes full advantage of the matrix structure of correlation functions but only considers individual pairs of time separations when much more data exists. PM can be applied to many time separations and many individual matrix elements simultaneously but does not fully exploit the matrix structure of the correlation function. We combine both these methods into a single framework based on matrix polynomials. As these algebraic methods are well known for producing extensive spectral information about statistically-noisy data, the method should be paired with some information criteria, like the recently proposed Bayesean model averaging.

Fleming, George T.↗