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NASA NTRS2011

Observation and Spectral Measurements of the Crab Nebula with Milagro

The Crab Nebula was detected with the Milagro experiment at a statistical significance of 17 standard deviations over the lifetime of the experiment. The experiment was sensitive to approximately 100 GeV - 100 TeV gamma ray air showers by observing the particle footprint reaching the ground. The fraction of detectors recording signals from photons at the ground is a suitable proxy for the energy of the primary particle and has been used to measure the photon energy spectrum of the Crab Nebula between ~1 and ~100 TeV. The TeV emission is believed to be caused by inverse-Compton up-scattering scattering of ambient photons by an energetic electron population. The location of a Te V steepening or cutoff in the energy spectrum reveals important details about the underlying electron population. We describe the experiment and the technique for distinguishing gamma-ray events from the much more-abundant hadronic events. We describe the calculation of the significance of the excess from the Crab and how the energy spectrum is fit.

Abdo, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

CloudSat Reflectivity Data Visualization Inside Hurricanes

We have presented methods to rapidly produce visualization and outreach products from CloudSat data for science and the media These methods combine data from several sources in the product generation process In general, the process can be completely automatic, producing products and notifying potential users

remote science↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Limit of Magnetic-Shear Energy in Solar Active Regions

It has been found previously, by measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region's magnetic field, (1) that there is a sharp upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region's magnetic flux content, and (2) that most active regions are near this limit when their field explodes in a coronal mass ejection/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy-limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, we present evidence that specifies the underlying magnetic condition that gives rise to the free-energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free-energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find evidence that (1) in active regions at and near their free-energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non-free magnetic energy the potential field would have is of the order of one in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free-energy limit. Evidently, most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than one cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches one, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is one, most active regions are compelled to explode.

Moore, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2012

Prior Flaring as a Complement to Free Magnetic Energy for Forecasting Solar Eruptions

From a large database of (1) 40,000 SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms covering the passage of 1,300 sunspot active regions across the 30 deg radius central disk of the Sun, (2) a proxy of each active region's free magnetic energy measured from each of the active region's central-disk-passage magnetograms, and (3) each active region's full-disk-passage history of production of major flares and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we find new statistical evidence that (1) there are aspects of an active region's magnetic field other than the free energy that are strong determinants of the active region's productivity of major flares and fast CMEs in the coming few days, (2) an active region's recent productivity of major flares, in addition to reflecting the amount of free energy in the active region, also reflects these other determinants of coming productivity of major eruptions, and (3) consequently, the knowledge of whether an active region has recently had a major flare, used in combination with the active region's free-energy proxy measured from a magnetogram, can greatly alter the forecast chance that the active region will have a major eruption in the next few days after the time of the magnetogram. The active-region magnetic conditions that, in addition to the free energy, are reflected by recent major flaring are presumably the complexity and evolution of the field.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Free Magnetic Energy and Coronal Heating

Previous work has shown that the coronal X-ray luminosity of an active region increases roughly in direct proportion to the total photospheric flux of the active region's magnetic field (Fisher et al. 1998). It is also observed, however, that the coronal luminosity of active regions of nearly the same flux content can differ by an order of magnitude. In this presentation, we analyze 10 active regions with roughly the same total magnetic flux. We first determine several coronal properties, such as X-ray luminosity (calculated using Hinode XRT), peak temperature (calculated using Hinode EIS), and total Fe XVIII emission (calculated using SDO AIA). We present the dependence of these properties on a proxy of the free magnetic energy of the active region

Winebarger, Amy↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Limit of Free Magnetic Energy in Active Regions

By measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, it has been found previously that (1) there is an abrupt upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) the free energy is usually near its limit when the field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy ]limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, from measurement of Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms, we find the magnetic condition that underlies the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free ]energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is approximately 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. This shows that most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1 or greater, most active regions are compelled to explode. From these results we surmise the magnetic condition that determines the free ]energy limit is the ratio of the free magnetic energy to the non-free energy the active region fs field would have were it completely relaxed to its potential ]field configuration, and that this ratio is approximately 1 at the free-energy limit and in the main sequence of explosive active regions.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Main Sequence of Explosive Solar Active Regions: Comparison of Emerging and Mature Active Regions

For mature active regions, an active region s magnetic flux content determines the maximum free energy the active region can have. Most Large flares and CMEs occur in active regions that are near their free-energy limit. Active-region flare power radiated in the GOES 1-8 band increases steeply as the free-energy limit is approached. We infer that the free-energy limit is set by the rate of release of an active region s free magnetic energy by flares, CMEs and coronal heating balancing the maximum rate the Sun can put free energy into the active region s magnetic field. This balance of maximum power results in explosive active regions residing in a "mainsequence" in active-region (flux content, free energy content) phase space, which sequence is analogous to the main sequence of hydrogen-burning stars in (mass, luminosity) phase space.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Limit of Magnetic-Shear Energy in Solar Active Regions

It has been found previously, by measuring from active ]region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, (1) that there is a sharp upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) that most active regions are near this limit when their field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main ]sequence path bordering the free ]energy ]limit line in (flux content, free ]energy proxy) phase space. Here we present evidence that specifies the underlying magnetic condition that gives rise to the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find evidence that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic ]shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is of order 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. Evidently, most active regions in which this core ]field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1, most active regions are compelled to explode.

Moore, Ronald L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quantified Event Automata: Towards Expressive and Efficient Runtime Monitors

Runtime verification is the process of checking a property on a trace of events produced by the execution of a computational system. Runtime verification techniques have recently focused on parametric specifications where events take data values as parameters. These techniques exist on a spectrum inhabited by both efficient and expressive techniques. These characteristics are usually shown to be conflicting - in state-of-the-art solutions, efficiency is obtained at the cost of loss of expressiveness and vice-versa. To seek a solution to this conflict we explore a new point on the spectrum by defining an alternative runtime verification approach.We introduce a new formalism for concisely capturing expressive specifications with parameters. Our technique is more expressive than the currently most efficient techniques while at the same time allowing for optimizations.

state machines↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Solar drivers of severe space weather can be predicted from line-of-sight magnetograms, via a free-energy proxy measured from the neutral lines. This can be done in near real time. In addition to depending strongly on the free magnetic energy, an active region's chance of having a major eruption depends strongly on other aspects of the evolving magnetic field (e.g., its complexity and flux emergence).

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multiwavelength Observations of the AGN 1ES 0414+009 with Veritas, Fermi-LAT, Swift-XRT, and MDM

We present observations of the BL Lac object 1ES 0414+009 in the greater than 200 GeV gamma-ray band by the VERITAS array of Cherenkov telescopes. 1ES 0414+009 was observed by VERITAS between January 2008 and February 2011, resulting in 56.2 hours of good quality pointed observations. These observations resulted in a detection of 822 events from the source corresponding to a statistical significance of 6.4 standard deviations (6.4 sigma) above the background. The source flux, showing no evidence for variability, is measured as (5.2 plus or minus 1.1(sub stat) plus or minus 2.6(sub sys) x 10(exp 12) photons per square centimeter per second above 200 GeV, equivalent to approximately 2% of the Crab Nebula flux above this energy. The differential photon spectrum from 230 GeV to 850 GeV is well fit by a power law with an photon index of TAU = 3.4 plus or minus 0.5(sub stat) plus or minus 0.3(sub sys) and a flux normalization of (1.6 plus or minus 0.3(sub stat) plus or minus 0.8(sub sys) x 10(exp -11) photons per square centimeter per second at 300 GeV. We also present multiwavelength results taken in the optical (MDM), X-ray (Swift-XRT), and GeV (Fermi-LAT) bands and use these results to construct a broadband spectral energy distribution (SED). Modeling of this SED indicates that homogenous one-zone leptonic scenarios are not adequate to describe emission from the system, with a lepto-hadronic model providing a better fit to the data.

Aliu, E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Filament Eruptions, Jets, and Space Weather

Previously, from chromospheric H alpha and coronal X‐ray movies of the Sun's polar coronal holes, it was found that nearly all coronal jets (greater than 90%) are one or the other of two roughly equally common different kinds, different in how they erupt: standard jets and blowout jets (Yamauchi et al 2004, Apl, 605, 5ll: Moore et all 2010, Apj, 720, 757). Here, from inspection of SDO/AIA He II 304 A movies of 54 polar x-ray jets observed in Hinode/XRT movies, we report, as Moore et al (2010) anticipated, that (1) most standard x-ray jets (greater than 80%) show no ejected plasma that is cool enough (T is less than or approximately 10(exp 5K) to be seen in the He II 304 A movies; (2) nearly all blownout X-ray jets (greater than 90%) show obvious ejection of such cool plasma; (3) whereas when cool plasma is ejected in standard X-ray jets, it shows no lateral expansion, the cool plasma ejected in blowout X-ray jets shows strong lateral expansion; and (4) in many blowout X-ray jets, the cool plasma ejection displays the erupting-magnetic-rope form of clasic filament eruptions and is thereby seen to be a miniature filament eruption. The XRT movies also showed most blowout X-ray jets to be larger and brighter, and hence to apparently have more energy, than most standard X-ray jets. These observations (1) confirm the dichotomy of coronal jets, (2) agree with the Shibata model for standard jets, and (3) support the conclusion of Moore et al (2010) that in blowout jets the magnetic-arch base of the jet erupts in the manner of the much larger magnetic arcades in which the core field, the field rooted along the arcade's polarity inversion line, is sheared and twisted (sigmoid), often carries a cool‐plasma filament, and erupts to blowout the arcade, producing a CME. From Hinode/SOT Ca II movies of the polar limb, Sterling et al (2010, ApJ, 714, L1) found that chromospheric Type‐II spicules show a dichotomy of eruption dynamics similar to that found here for the cool‐plasma component of coronal X‐ray jets. This favors the idea that Type‐II spicules are miniature counterparts of coronal X‐ray jets. In Moore et al (2011, ApJ, 731, L18), we pointed out that if Type‐II spicules are magnetic eruptions that work like coronal X‐ray jets, they carry an area‐averaged mechanical energy flux of approximately 7x10)(exp 5) erg cm(exp -2) s(exp-1) into the corona in the form of MHD waves and jet outflow, enough to power the heating of the global corona and solar wind. On this basis, from our observations of mini‐filament eruptions in blowout X‐ray jets, we infer that magnetic explosions of the type that have erupting filaments in them are the main engines of both (1) the steady solar wind and (2) the CMEs that produce the most severe space weather by blasting out through the corona and solar wind, making solar energetic particle storms, and bashing the Earth's magnetosphere. We conclude that in focusing on prominences and filament eruptions, Einar had his eye on the main bet for understanding what powers all space weather, both the extreme and the normal.

Moore, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2013

Magnetic Untwisting in Most Solar X-Ray Jets

From 54 X‐ray jets observed in the polar coronal holes by Hinode's X‐Ray Telescope (XRT) during coverage in movies from Solar Dynamic Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) taken in its He II 304 Å band at a cadence of 12 s, we have established a basic characteristic of solar X‐ray jets: untwisting motion in the spire. In this presentation, we show the progression of few of these X‐ray jets in XRT images and track their untwisting in AIA He II images. From their structure displayed in their XRT movies, 19 jets were evidently standard jets made by interchange reconnection of the magnetic‐arcade base with ambient open field, 32 were evidently blowout jets made by blowout eruption of the base arcade, and 3 were of ambiguous form. As was anticipated from the >10,000 km span of the base arcade in most polar X‐ray jets and from the disparity of standard jets and blowout jets in their magnetic production, few of the standard X‐ray jets (3 of 19) but nearly all of the blowout X‐ray jets (29 of 32) carried enough cool (T is approximately 105 K) plasma to be seen in their He II movies. In the 32 X‐ray jets that showed a cool component, the He II movies show 10‐100 km/s untwisting motions about the axis of the spire in all 3 standard jets and in 26 of the 29 blowout jets. Evidently, the open magnetic field in nearly all blowout X‐ray jets and probably in most standard X‐ray jets carries transient twist. This twist apparently relaxes by propagating out along the open field as a torsional wave. High‐resolution spectrograms and Dopplergrams have shown that most Type‐II spicules have torsional motions of 10‐30 km/s. Our observation of similar torsional motion in X‐ray jets strengthens the case for Type‐II spicules being made in the same way as X‐ray jets, by blowout eruption of a twisted magnetic arcade in the spicule base and/or by interchange reconnection of the twisted base arcade with the ambient open field. This work was funded by NASA's Heliophysics Division through its LWS TRT Program and its Hinode Project, and by NSF through its Research Experience for Undergraduates Program.

Moore, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2013

How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2013

Onset of a Solar Filament Eruption Without a Slow-Rise Phase

We observe a filament eruption of 23 Jan 2012 using Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Relatively cool emissions (193 Ang. channel) show a filament with a rise-toward-eruption trajectory that is relatively smooth, without a distinct, linearly-increasing "slow rise" followed by an abrupt "fast rise," as is often seen in other events. Detailed investigations of some of those two-phase events suggested that they were triggered by magnetic flux cancellation. Here however, observations of hotter emissions (335 Ang. channel) show an adjacent eruption, invisible in 193 Ang., occurred just prior to the filament's eruption start. We surmise that the hotter eruption destabilized the 193 Ang. filament, triggering its eruption onset. In this way, the filament's smooth eruption trajectory is indicative of a non-tether-cutting eruption-onset mechanism for the filament.

Knox, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An SDO/AIA-Observed Filament Eruption Triggered by a Lid-Removal Onset Mechanism

An eruption of a solar filament often presages the onset of a more general solar eruption, often leading to a solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME). Among the mechanisms suggested for triggering eruptions are flux cancellation, flux emergence, tether‐cutting reconnection, and breakout reconnection. Here we present an example of a filament eruption due to a different trigger mechanism, which we call ``lid removal,'' whereby a magnetic structure overlying the filament is removed by a preceding adjacent eruption, rendering MHD unstable the magnetic system containing the filament and resulting in the subsequent eruption of the filament. This filament eruption occurred on 23 Jan 2013, and was well‐seen in SDO/AIA 193 Ang images. Prior to its eruption the filament was at an approximately constant height above the solar surface for approx. 4 hours, before smoothly lifting off. Evidence for the overlying "lid'' field was difficult to discern in 193 Ang images, but was apparent in hotter coronal images, such as SDO/AIA 335. Removal of the lid field was due to an eruption of that field visible in the hotter‐corona images. In this way, the lid‐removal filament‐eruption mechanism is similar to recent observations of connected or cascading eruptions originating from magnetically‐linked locations.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗