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Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗

Biosignatures in the Context of Low Energy Flux

Many of the features that are thought of as biosignatures - including the mediation of chemical and physical processes with speed, specificity, and selectivity - result directly or indirectly from life's unique capability to mediate and direct energy flux. As such, it is important to consider the impact that differences in energy flux may have on the quantity and quality of evidence for life. Earth differs from every other body in our solar system in the magnitude of biologically-usable energy flux into a liquid water environment. On a global basis, the capture of light energy into photosynthesis and the flux of chemical energy represented in the products of that photosynthesis (organic material + O2) are about six and four orders of magnitude larger, respectively, than the flux of energy represented in geochemical sources. Our conception of what an inhabited world "looks like" and our intuition about how to search for life are based in this high-energy context. Energy fluxes on worlds beyond Earth may be better approximated by the million-fold smaller flux provided to Earth's biosphere by geochemical sources. As a result, the nature, abundance, and quality of evidence for life that could be expected on an inhabited extraterrestrial world within our solar system may differ profoundly from that found on Earth. Understanding this potential difference in quantitative terms provides important context for the formulation of life detection strategies. The influence of energy flux on biosignatures can be evaluated through reference to the two basic purposes into which life partitions energy flux: (1) Life expends energy to sustain existing biomass in a metabolic steady state (metabolically functional but non-growing). The formal representation of this relationship in the traditional microbiology literature equates biomass directly with energy flux. The direct implication is that worlds having lower energy flux will have correspondingly lower potential to support biomass. Life detection strategies that directly target extant organisms should therefore be prepared to encounter average biomass densities that may be many orders of magnitude smaller than those found in most of Earth's surface environments (2) Life expends energy to synthesize new biomass. An end-member case in which new biomass is created at the energy-limited rate and the corresponding cells are immediately destroyed (so that the energy partitioned to cell maintenance is minimized) establishes an upper bound on the rate at which biological material can enter a bulk global pool. For a specified bulk concentration [i] of any particular biological compound, i, or for biologically produced matter overall, this synthesis rate, R (sub i), defines a characteristic time scale tau (sub i) equals [i] divided by R (sub i). tau (sub i) can be thought of as (a) the minimum time required for biosynthesis to yield a specific bulk concentration (e.g., a detection threshold) of i, and (b) the average residence time of i within a bulk pool when [i] is held in steady state through a balance between biosynthesis and attrition by physical, chemical, or biological consumption. tau (sub i) becomes an important quantity in considering the potential utility of enantiomeric excess (as a product of homochiral biosynthesis) as a biosignature. Spontaneous racemization of amino acids acts to "erase" the signature of homochiral synthesis over time scales that may range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years, depending on temperature. For environments in which low energy flux translates to low rates of biosynthesis, including the synthesis of homochiral amino acids, amino acid residence times in pools having detectable concentrations may compare to or significantly exceed the time scale for racemization. This and similar consequences of long residence times should be considered in the formulation of life detection strategies based on detection of biologically-produced species. Fluxes of biologically-useful energy on potentially habitable worlds within our solar system are, at present, not well constrained. Improving such constraint has the potential to inform priorities in the formulation and targeting of search-for-life strategies, based on the implications of energy flux for the abundance and quality of biosignatures overall, and in specific categories.

ENERGY FLUX↗

EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations

This paper presents a new solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) flux model for aeronomic calulations (EUVAC), which is based on the measured F74113 solar EUV reference spectrum. The model provides fluxes in the 37 wavelength bins that are in widespread use. This paper also presents cross sections to be used with the EUVAC flux model to calculate photoionization rates. The flux scaling for solar activity is accomplished using a proxy-based on the F10.7 index and its 81-day average together with the measured solar flux variation from the EUVS instrument on the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite. This new model produces 50-575 A integrated EUV fluxes in good agreement with rocket observations. The solar cycle variation of the chromospheric fluxes agrees well with the measured variation of the Lyman alpha flux between 1982 and 1988. In addition, the theoretical photoelectron fluxes, calculated using the new EUV flux model, are in good agreement with the solar minimum photoelectron fluxes from the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite and also with the solar maximum photoelectron fluxes from the Dynamics Explorer satellite. Its relative simplicity coupled with its ability to reproduce the 50-575 A solar EUV flux as well as the measured photoelectron spectrum makes the model well suited for aeronomic applications. However, EUVAC is not designed to accurately predict the solar flux variability for numerous individual lines.

Richards, P. G.↗

Evidence for X-ray flux and spectral modulation by absorption in NGC 6814. 1: The nature of the most rapid variability

The Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 6814 was observed using the Japanese X-ray astronomy satellite Ginga in 1990 April and October. The rapid variability characteristically associated with this source was reconfirmed. Specifically, three dips were found in the April observation in which the flux dropped to nearly zero in approximately 300 s. The doubling timescale was approximately 50 s. A similar but separated drop and rise in flux was observed in the October data, different in that the flux did not decrease completely to zero. A detailed analysis of the data around the structures of most rapid variability found spectral variability and lags in flux between different energy bands. Lags were on the order of a few to tens of seconds for the April data, and on the order of tens to a couple of hundred seconds for the October data. The sense of the lags was such that during flux decreases the hard flux lagged, while during flux increases the soft flux lagged. Associated significant apparent hardening of the spectrum at low flux was observed in the April data. Apparent hardening of the spectrum also occurred in the October flux decrease, to a photon index of GAMMA = 0.85; however, the spectrum softened at lowest flux to the index of the predecrease level, GAMMA = 1.54. In the April dips, the line flux was found to decrease significantly. A marginal decrease in line flux was also observed in the October data. The variability of the line flux reconfirmed the result of Kunieda et al. (1990), who found that the line production region must be within approximately 300 light-seconds from the source. To explain the observational results, a variable-absorption model was proposed, in which the column density was assumed to vary as a function of time. Other physical processes, including intrinsic spectral changes and warm absorber models, which could account for the fastest variability, could be ruled out by the results of the data analysis. A primary constraint found for geometrical models is that the material which is doing the absorption must have relatively low ionization (xi less than 100). This result leads to severe constraints on a general orbiting cloud model, requiring high densities (n approximately 10(exp 16)/cu cm) and sheetlike geometry.

Leighly, Karen↗

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Defining Top-of-Atmosphere Flux Reference Level for Earth Radiation Budget Studies

To estimate the earth's radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from satellite-measured radiances, it is necessary to account for the finite geometry of the earth and recognize that the earth is a solid body surrounded by a translucent atmosphere of finite thickness that attenuates solar radiation differently at different heights. As a result, in order to account for all of the reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation from the planet by direct integration of satellite-measured radiances, the measurement viewing geometry must be defined at a reference level well above the earth s surface (e.g., 100 km). This ensures that all radiation contributions, including radiation escaping the planet along slant paths above the earth s tangent point, are accounted for. By using a field-of- view (FOV) reference level that is too low (such as the surface reference level), TOA fluxes for most scene types are systematically underestimated by 1-2 W/sq m. In addition, since TOA flux represents a flow of radiant energy per unit area, and varies with distance from the earth according to the inverse-square law, a reference level is also needed to define satellite-based TOA fluxes. From theoretical radiative transfer calculations using a model that accounts for spherical geometry, the optimal reference level for defining TOA fluxes in radiation budget studies for the earth is estimated to be approximately 20 km. At this reference level, there is no need to explicitly account for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the atmosphere in the earth radiation budget calculation. In this context, therefore, the 20-km reference level corresponds to the effective radiative top of atmosphere for the planet. Although the optimal flux reference level depends slightly on scene type due to differences in effective transmission of solar radiation with cloud height, the difference in flux caused by neglecting the scene-type dependence is less than 0.1%. If an inappropriate TOA flux reference level is used to define satellite TOA fluxes, and horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the planet is not accounted for in the radiation budget equation, systematic errors in net flux of up to 8 W/sq m can result. Since climate models generally use a plane-parallel model approximation to estimate TOA fluxes and the earth radiation budget, they implicitly assume zero horizontal transmission of solar radiation in the radiation budget equation, and do not need to specify a flux reference level. By defining satellite-based TOA flux estimates at a 20-km flux reference level, comparisons with plane-parallel climate model calculations are simplified since there is no need to explicitly correct plane-parallel climate model fluxes for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through a finite earth.

Loeb, N. G.↗

The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

Biosphere↗

Laboratory-Based Thermal Shock Investigation of Heat Flux Sensors for the Mars 2020 Backshell

In 2012 during the entry, descent, and landing of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the MSL Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) sensor suite was collecting in-flight heatshield pressure and temperature data. The data collected by the MEDLI instruments has since been used for reconstruction of vehicle aerodynamics, atmospheric conditions, aerothermal heating, and Thermal Protection System (TPS) performance as well as material response model validation and refinement. The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite for the Mars 2020 heatshield and backshell is being designed to expand on the measurements and knowledge gained from MEDLI. Similar to MEDLI, MEDLI2 will measure the pressure and temperature of the heatshield. MEDLI2 will additionally measure the temperature, pressure, total heat flux, and radiative heat flux on the backshell.Since the backshell instrumentation is new to MEDLI2, Do No Harm (DNH) testing was conducted on instrumented backshell TPS (SLA-561V) panels. The panels consisted of four pressure port holes, one Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) pressure port plug, one MEDLI2 Integrated Sensor Plug (MISP) thermal plug, and one heat flux sensor. DNH testing was conducted to ensure the performance of the TPS was not degraded due to sensor integration and to characterize any TPS performance changes. The testing consisted of environmental testing— vibration, shock, thermal vacuum (TVAC) cycling— and bounding aerothermal (arc jet) testing. During arc jet testing, the heat flux sensors embedded in the SLA-561V panels exhibited an unexpected temporary reduction in the heat flux sensor temperature and response. After review of the test results, it was determined that this unexpected response was confined to the two heat flux sensors that experienced the greatest thermal shock condition. This condition consisted of a liquid nitrogen (LN2) bath that induced temperatures of approximately -190°C, and then a transition (thermal shock) to an arc jet test at a heat rate of approximately 21 W/cm2. Both heat flux sensors that were exposed to this thermal shock experienced a blister in the thermal coating during the arc jet test.Two heat flux sensor thermal shock test series were performed to investigate the cause of the blistering and subsequent energy release. In these tests, the heat flux sensor was first cold soaked in either a dry ice or LN2 bath to induce temperatures of approximately -78°C or -190°C, respectively. Then the sensors were thermally shocked using two propane torches with a heat rate of either approximately 8 W/cm2 or 21 W/cm2. The key findings indicated that there is a correlation between thermal shock and the blistering observed in the DNH test series, and that the cause appeared to be rooted in the heat flux sensor epoxy that encapsulates the sensor thermopile.Since the heat flux sensors are required to measure heat fluxes up to 15 W/cm2 during the Mars 2020 entry, a third test series was designed to determine if blistering is an issue at this maximum expected flight heat flux. Results from all three thermal shock test series and a discussion about whether or not blistering of the heat flux sensor thermal coating could be an issue for the Mars 2020 mission will be presented.

Miller, R. A.↗

Improved GEO Derived LW Broadband Fluxes for the Edition5 CERES SYN1Deg Data Product

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides over 24 years of accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) and surface flux data record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. The major level-3 data products include SSF1deg, SYN1deg, FluxByCldTyp, and EBAF data. The CERES SYN1deg product provides 1° gridded observed TOA fluxes and computed surface fluxes based on hourly GEO clouds and derived broadband TOA fluxes. The hourly GEO derived fluxes fill in the temporal gaps between the Terra and Aqua CERES observations. In order to maintain a climate quality dataset the GEO cloud and flux retrievals are consistent over the record. The CERES project is preparing for Edition 5 product providing an opportunity to improve the GEO flux retrieval algorithms. To achieve this, the GEO satellite channel radiances are calibrated against the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. For SW the GEO channel radiances are then converted to broadband radiances using empirical and theoretical models. The SW broadband radiances are then converted to fluxes using the same CERES angular directional models. For LW the GEO channel radiances are directly converted to LW fluxes utilizing empirical models. The resulting GEO derived broadband fluxes are then normalized to the CERES fluxes regionally by regressing the instantaneous coincident flux pairs. The normalized GEO fluxes are then tied to the CERES instrument calibration, which is very stable over time. This study will attempt to improve the GEO derived LW fluxes based on machine learning technique for the future Edition5 SYN1deg data product.

Moguo Sun↗

The solar internetwork. I. Contribution to the network magnetic flux

The magnetic network (NE) observed on the solar surface harbors a sizable fraction of the total quiet Sun flux. However, its origin and maintenance are not well known. Here we investigate the contribution of internetwork (IN) magnetic fields to the NE flux. IN fields permeate the interior of supergranular cells and show large emergence rates. We use long-duration sequences of magnetograms acquired by Hinode and an automatic feature tracking algorithm to follow the evolution of NE and IN flux elements. We find that 14% of the quiet Sun (QS) flux is in the form of IN fields with little temporal variations. IN elements interact with NE patches and modify the flux budget of the NE either by adding flux (through merging processes) or by removing it (through cancellation events). Mergings appear to be dominant, so the net flux contribution of the IN is positive. The observed rate of flux transfer to the NE is 1.5 × 10{sup 24} Mx day{sup –1} over the entire solar surface. Thus, the IN supplies as much flux as is present in the NE in only 9-13 hr. Taking into account that not all the transferred flux is incorporated into the NE, we find that the IN would be able to replace the entire NE flux in approximately 18-24 hr. This renders the IN the most important contributor to the NE, challenging the view that ephemeral regions are the main source of flux in the QS. About 40% of the total IN flux eventually ends up in the NE.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Profiles of Radiative Fluxes at ENA

Profiles of radiative fluxes observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory along with the ancillary measurements are reported. The below-cloud drizzle properties were derived by combining the data from the ceilometer and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) following the technique explained by Ghate et al. (2021 JAMC). The cloud and drizzle water path values were derived from the brightness temperatures reported by the microwave radiometer following the technique of Cadeddu et al. (2020 AMT). The cloud water path was then scaled to the KAZR-reported radar reflectivity to calculate profiles of liquid water content (LWC). Following the analysis from Ghate et al. (2023 JGR), cloud droplet effective radius was calculated using the number concentration value of 100 cm-3. The cloud properties, along with the thermodynamic properties, served as an input to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) to yield profiles of radiative fluxes at a 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution. The fluxes were then averaged to hourly temporal resolution for analysis. In Mitra et al. (2025 JClim), the calculated profiles were compared against those derived from the satellite measurements (SYN1deg). Flux profiles from the SYN1deg and the thermodynamic and cloud properties used for deriving them are also reported here. Both all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux profiles were calculated. Due to the large data volume, the surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the six-year period, and the hourly profiles of the radiative fluxes for January 2018, are submitted here. Full profiles of radiative fluxes calculated from the thermodynamic and cloud properties measured at the ENA site at 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution for a six-year period are available from the authors. Six files here correspond to the following data: 1_ENARAD_CERES_with_cld_amount_timeseries.nc: Time-series of hourly values of RRTM-simulated values of upwelling and downwelling fluxes at the surface and TOA, observed boundary-layer cloud fractions, and upwelling and downwelling fluxes from the SYN1deg from July 2015 to January 2022. 2_CERES_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: SYN1deg radiative fluxes at six levels for the year 2018. 3_ENARad_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: RRTM calculated fluxes at the SYN1deg vertical levels for the year 2018. 4_ENARad_rrtminputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties used as an input to the RRTM for January 2018. 5_CERES_inputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties utilized by SYN1deg algorithm for January 2018. 6_ENARAD_hourly_201801.nc: Full profiles of hourly averaged radiative fluxes from the RRTM simulations for January 2018.

Atmosphere↗

Scoping Study for Fast Flux Testing in the Advanced Test Reactor

The value of fast spectrum reactors remains prominent in the nuclear technology portfolio. The performance of these reactors can be maximized with advancements in nuclear fuel technologies, but development of these technologies is currently held back by lack of fast spectrum test reactors available to the United States. Spectral modification of experiment positions in the thermal spectrum Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) has long been used to support fast reactor fuel development, but these methods have not been progressed to their full potential. This study investigated the use of concentric rings of aluminum-clad fuel plates in ATR flux traps and thermal neutron absorbing filters to increase fast neutron flux on test specimens. This concept was termed the Boosted Energy Advanced Spectrum Test (BEAST). This approach will enable irradiation of advanced fuel designs in prototypic-length fuel pins and representative flux environment to support post irradiation exams, enable transient testing, and produce the type of data that will permit lead test assembly irradiations in true Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs) when they become available. Neutronic predictions were performed to investigate BEAST design options and thermal hydraulic models were produced to ensure feasibility of BEAST. Two versions were considered based on the geometric limitations of ATR’s small and large flux traps. The small version was found to be preferable due to slightly higher fast flux and fast-to-thermal neutron ratio. Perhaps more influentially, the small flux trap option was also preferred to avoid conflict with ongoing very high temperature reactor fuel irradiation programs in ATR’s large northeast flux trap. The small flux trap option provided less than half the test volume of the large version, but still had adequate volume for seven SFR pins in cross section which could be stacked two-high in ATR’s 1.2m long core to accommodate up to 14 EBR-II size pins. The preference for the small flux trap configuration should be revisited if additional collaborative test programs emerge with the need to irradiate a significant volume of additional specimens. Calculations were performed regarding a lithium deuteride ring to convert thermal neutrons into 14 MeV fusion neutrons. At the time this report was written these calculations were partially complete and it remains to be seen whether the concept would be worth including in BEAST. Given the preference for the small flux trap option, which does not afford enough room for the 14 MeV ring, it was concluded to defer future work on the lithium deuteride ring. This decision could be revisited if fusion material research programs emerge for collaborative testing in BEAST. A cadmium-lined specimen holder design was found to be adequate in filtering thermal neutrons and preferred over other neutron absorbers based on past experience with cadmium baskets. It was acknowledged that cadmium-bearing hardware would become depleted and need to be replaced occasionally, which appeared feasible from a mechanical design perspective. Neutronic studies investigated different enrichment levels in the booster fuel using uranium-molybdenum alloy dispersion fuel which has performed well in past ATR irradiations. Both options were able to drive fuel pins to SFR-like fission heating rates. The high enriched booster fuel option outperformed the low enriched option by ~20% on key metrics including fast flux and fast-to-thermal ratio, but the low enriched option was favored in order to broaden options for potential fuel suppliers. The preferred BEAST design options including cadmium filter with low enriched booster fuel in the small flux trap configuration was predicted to achieve 6.2E14 n/cm2sec fast flux (>0.1 MeV) with a fast-to-thermal ratio of 44.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Automated Optical Meteor Fluxes and Preliminary Results of Major Showers

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) recently established a two‐station system to calculate daily automated meteor fluxes in the millimeter‐size‐range for both single‐station and double‐station meteors. The cameras each consist of a 17 mm focal length Schneider lens (f/0.95) on a Watec 902H2 Ultimate CCD video camera, producing a 21.7x15.5 degree field of view. This configuration sees meteors down to a magnitude of +6. This paper outlines the concepts of the system, the hardware and software, and results of 3,000+ orbits from the first 18 months of operations. Video from the cameras are run through ASGARD (All Sky and Guided Automatic Real‐time Detection), which performs the meteor detection/photometry, and invokes MILIG and MORB (Borovicka 1990) codes to determine the trajectory, speed, and orbit of the meteor. A subroutine in ASGARD allows for approximate shower identification in single‐station detections. The ASGARD output is used in routines to calculate the flux. Before a flux can be calculated, a weather algorithm indicates if sky conditions are clear enough to calculate fluxes, at which point a limiting magnitude algorithm is employed. The limiting stellar magnitude is found using astrometry.net (Lang et al. 2012) to identify stars and translated to the corresponding shower and sporadic limiting meteor magnitude. It is found every 10 minutes and is able to react to quickly changing sky conditions. The extensive testing of these results on the Geminids and Eta Aquariids is shown. The flux involves dividing the number of meteors by the collecting area of the system, over the time interval for which that collecting area is valid. The flux algorithm employed here differs from others currently in use in that it does not make the gross oversimplication of choosing a single height to calculate the collection area of the system. In the MEO system, the volume is broken up into a set of height intervals, with the collecting areas determined by the position of the active shower or sporadic source radiant. The flux per height interval is calculated and summed to obtain the total meteor flux. Both single station and double station fluxes are currently found daily. Geminid fluxes on the peak night in 2012 (12‐14‐2012) were 0.058 meteors/km2/hr as found with double‐station meteors and 0.057 meteors/ km2/hr as found with single‐station meteors, to a limiting magnitude of +6.5. Both of those numbers are in agreement with the well‐calibrated fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. Along with flux algorithms and initial flux results, presented will be results from the first 18 months of operation, covering 3,000+ meteoroid orbits.

Blaauw, R.↗

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗

Towards a More Realistic Representation of NASA CERES-derived Surface Radiative Fluxes during Polar Night: A Comparison with the MOSAiC Field Campaign

The Arctic is one of the most sensitive regions of Earth to climate change, and yet remains one of the more difficult regions to both observe and simulate. The remoteness of the Arctic from most of civilization makes large volumes of in situ observations difficult to collect, and so satellite observations are a critical tool for observing the region, such as those from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). But validating the satellite radiative flux estimates is difficult because of the lack of in situ measurements. A useful remedy is utilizing measurements from field campaigns, such as the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition during 2019-2020. The extensive high-quality surface radiative flux and meteorological measurements collected from MOSAiC provide a useful check on flux retrievals from CERES instruments. We compare MOSAiC and CERES surface radiative fluxes during October through March of 2019-2020. As this time period is mostly during polar night and twilight, the focus of the study is on longwave surface fluxes. To better understand the reasons for errors in CERES fluxes, we use the large set of meteorological measurements also collected by MOSAiC, including surface temperature, thermodynamic vertical profiles, surface turbulent fluxes, and cloud properties. Previous work identified a significant source of error in the CERES estimate of surface downwelling longwave flux as the estimate of low level cloud amount when compared with MOSAiC W-band radar measurements. An overestimate of low cloud amount yielded an underestimate of the downwelling flux on the order of tens of W m2. Continuing this work, we test other meteorological properties such as the vertical thermodynamic profile and surface turbulent fluxes. In addition, we examine different estimates of surface fluxes derived from CERES measurements. Previous work used the SYN1deg product, which had the limitation of having a 1º x 1 º horizontal resolution. A newer product estimates the surface fluxes at the CERES footprint resolution, which allows a more precise colocation, and thus a representative flux estimate, with the MOSAiC site.

J Brant Dodson↗

Radon Fluxes from an Earthen Barrier Over Uranium Mill Tailings After Two Decades of Service - 17234

Radon (Rn) fluxes were measured at a disposal facility for uranium mill tailings after two decades of service. The facility was closed with an earthen cover vegetated with grasses. Measurements were made on the surface of the Rn barrier and directly on the surface of the tailings. Fluxes were measured using extra small (area = 0.018 m{sup 2}), small (0.071 m{sup 2}), medium (0.59 m{sup 2}), and large (2.32 m{sup 2}) flux chambers to evaluate the impact of measurement scale on Rn flux. Activated carbon (AC) passive collectors and electric radon detectors (RAD7) were used to measure Rn concentrations. Tests were conducted at various locations on each cover representing conditions that can lead to different levels of soil structural development and different water content. Rn fluxes at the surface of the Rn barrier were much lower than Rn fluxes measured at the surface of the tailings, indicating the barrier remained effective for Rn containment. Geometric mean Rn fluxes measured at the surface of the Rn barrier in each test pit were below the regulatory requirement (0.74 Bq/m{sup 2}- s). Rn concentrations measured using AC samplers in the flux chambers were 60% of concentrations measured using the RAD7, on average, and Rn fluxes computed with the AC data were 9% of those computed with the RAD7 data, on average. Size of the flux chamber had no systematic effect on Rn flux, indicating that 20 y of soil forming processes had not created a pore network causing scale-dependent Rn flux. Geometric mean Rn fluxes in the test pits were similar regardless of differences in surface conditions (vegetation, thickness of soil cover) known to influence soil forming processes and soil structure, but were lower in areas where surface conditions promoted higher water content in the Rn barrier. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Tropical Indo-Pacific Intraseasonal Precipitation

Surface latent heat fluxes help maintain tropical intraseasonal precipitation. We develop a latent heat flux diagnostic that depicts how latent heat fluxes vary with the near-surface specific humidity vertical gradient (Δq) and surface wind speed (|V|). Compared to fluxes estimated from |V| and Δq measured at tropical moorings and the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment 3.0 (COARE3.0) algorithm, tropical latent heat fluxes in the National Center for Atmospheric Research CEMS2 and Department of Energy E3SMv1 models are significantly overestimated at |V| and Δq extrema. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) sensitivity to surface flux algorithm is tested with offline and inline flux corrections. The offline correction adjusts model output fluxes toward mooring-estimated fluxes; the inline correction replaces the original bulk flux algorithm with the COARE3.0 algorithm in atmosphere-only simulations of each model. Both corrections indicate reduced latent heat flux feedback to intraseasonal precipitation, in better agreement with observations, suggesting that model-simulated fluxes are overly supportive for maintaining MJO convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗