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2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 2: Marine Renewable Energy: Environmental Effects and Monitoring Strategies

As we learn more about interactions between marine renewable energy (MRE) devices, the animals and habitats near them, and the oceanographic processes with which they interact, we need to clarify the language used to discuss those interactions. For example, if an MRE device or system negatively affected a number of animals, we could say that the device or the system of foundations, anchors, and mooring lines had an impact on the population, and take steps to avoid the impact or, in some cases, mitigate the impact. However, at this stage in MRE development, there are few, if any, cases in which a negative impact has been observed or measured. Instead, we are developing the building blocks that support investigations of interactions and potential impacts. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-2-environmental-effects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental Monitoring Report, Calendar year 2020. Knolls Laboratory and Kesselring Site

The results of the effluent and environmental monitoring programs at the Knolls Laboratory and Kesselring Site are summarized and assessed in this report. Tables 1 - 4 summarize the major elements of the environmental monitoring programs at each site. Information regarding the U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) Separations Process Research Unit (SPRU) Disposition Project (SPRU DP), is also included in this report; however, the project was completed in 2020 and will no longer be reported in subsequent reports. DOE-EM will be continuing to perform other Decontamination & Decommissioning (D&D) work at Knolls Laboratory and Kesselring Site, which may require environmental monitoring, and will be included in this report, as warranted. Operations at the Knolls Laboratory, which includes SPRU and other DOE-EM activities, and the Kesselring Site continue to have no adverse effect on human health and the quality of the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Knolls Laboratory and Kesselring Site Environmental Monitoring Report (CY2019)

The results of the effluent and environmental monitoring programs at the Knolls Laboratory and Kesselring Site are summarized and assessed in this report. Tables 1 - 4 summarize the major elements of the environmental monitoring programs at each site. Information regarding the U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) Separations Process Research Unit (SPRU) Disposition Project (SPRU DP), is also included in this report. Operations at the Knolls Laboratory, SPRU, and the Kesselring Site continue to have no adverse effect on human health and the quality of the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Annual Tropical‐Rainforest Productivity Through Two Decades: Complex Responses to Climatic Factors, [CO 2 ] and Storm Damage

Abstract Yearly changes in tropical carbon‐cycling have been a major biotic determinant of the interannual variation in the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO 2 ]). The environmental responses underlying these changes remain poorly understood. A 21‐year field study (1997–2018) in a Costa Rican rainforest has produced the first multi‐decade record of landscape‐scale annual aboveground productivity for a tropical ecosystem. While none of the four production components (wood production; leaf‐, twig‐, and reproductive litterfall) increased over two decades, all significantly varied among years. Multi‐factor environmental models explained a large fraction of the inter‐year changes in two production components. Annual changes in three climatic factors and [CO 2 ] jointly accounted for 84% of the variation in annual wood production. While the strongest response of wood production was to decline in years of slightly warmer nights, it also significantly declined in years with more dry‐season hours hotter than 28°C. The yearly changes in reproductive litterfall were largely (52%) determined by the combined effects of increasing [CO 2 ] and declining annual radiation. Twig litterfall declined over the 21 years. Annual leaf litterfall, the largest component of field‐assessed aboveground production, showed no significant environmental responses. An extreme storm in the study's final year disrupted the environmental controls on production that prevailed through the prior 20 years. While important uncertainties are introduced by some of the field methods for assessing aboveground forest production, the findings of this first long‐term field study of annual landscape‐scale productivity raise deep concerns for the future of tropical forests as global warming proceeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Economic benefits of supersonic overland operation

Environmental concerns are likely to impose some restrictions on the next generation of supersonic commercial transport. There is a global concern over the effects of engine emissions on the ozone layer which protects life on Earth from ultraviolet radiation. There is also some concern over community noise. The High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) must meet at least the current subsonic noise certification standards to be compatible with the future subsonic fleet. Concerns over sonic boom represent another environmental and marketing challenge to the HSCT program. The most attractive feature of the supersonic transport is speed, which offers the traveling public significant time-savings on long range routes. The sonic boom issue represents a major environmental and economic challenge as well. Supersonic operation overland produces the most desirable economic results. However, unacceptable overland sonic boom raise levels may force HSCT to use subsonic speeds overland. These environmental and economic challenges are likely to impose some restrictions on supersonic operation, thus introducing major changes to existing route structures and future supersonic network composition. The current subsonic route structure may have to be altered for supersonic transports to avoid sensitive areas in the stratosphere or to minimize overland flight tracks. It is important to examine the alternative route structure and the impact of these restrictions on the economic viability of the overall supersonic operation. Future market potential for HSCT fleets must be large enough to enable engine and airframe manufacturers to build the plane at a cost that provides them with an attractive return on investment and to sell it at a price that allows the airlines to operate with a reasonable margin of profit. Subsonic overland operation of a supersonic aircraft hinders its economic viability. Ways to increase the market potential of supersonic operation are described.

Metwally, Munir↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 12: Adaptive Management Related to Marine Renewable Energy

As the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry is rapidly ramped up from single devices to commercial-scale deployments, developers and regulators will need evidence of the environmental effects of MRE to inform project development and consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes. Uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of novel RE technologies on sensitive marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes means that even robust baseline environmental information cannot comprehensively address all pre-deployment knowledge gaps. Tools and practical approaches are needed to help with the sustainable development of the industry. Adaptive management (AM), also referred to as learning by/while doing, enables projects to be deployed incrementally, despite uncertainty, in a way that prevents unacceptable harm to the marine environment. If rigorously implemented, this approach may provide a reliable mechanism for closing knowledge gaps, thereby retiring risks for future MRE developments. This chapter explores and suggests a pathway for applying a passive approach to AM for the consenting of single devices and array-scale MRE projects. Complementary information is available online at https://tethys.pnnl.gov/state-of-thescience-2020 -supplementaryadaptive-management. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-12-adaptive-management

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Nuclear winter - Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions

The results of a computerized simulation of the potential global environmental effects of dust and smoke clouds that would be generated by a nuclear war are presented. Short term effects of blast, fire, and radiation are neglected in the series of physical models that include a nuclear war scenario, a particle microphysics model, and a radiative convective model. Account is taken of the altitude-dependent dust, smoke, radioactivity, and NO(x) injections, the temporal evolution of dust and smoke clouds, land and ocean environments, and temperature contrasts. A nuclear exchange would produce thousands of individual smoke and dust clouds rising up to 30 km altitude in the midlatitudes. The smoke, dust, and radioactive debris would cover the entire midlatitudes within 1-2 weeks. The smoke would arise from conflagrations of forests, suburbs, and urban areas. Obscuration of sunlight would induce subfreezing temperatures for several months, disruption of the global circulation patterns, and the arrival of a nuclear winter, followed and accompanied by radioactive fallout, pyrogenic air pollution, and UV-B flux enhancements. It is estimated that a total of only 100 Mtons would be sufficient to plunge the Northern Hemisphere summer to subfreezing temperatures lasting months. Since the probable exchange in a nuclear war would exceed 5000 Mtons, it is expected that many species, including humans, may not survive the war.

Turco, R. P.↗

Diurnal variability of regional cloud and clear-sky radiative parameters derived from GOES data. I - Analysis method. II - November 1978 cloud distributions. III - November 1978 radiative parameters

Cloud cover is one of the most important variables affecting the earth radiation budget (ERB) and, ultimately, the global climate. The present investigation is concerned with several aspects of the effects of extended cloudiness, taking into account hourly visible and infrared data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satelite (GOES). A methodology called the hybrid bispectral threshold method is developed to extract regional cloud amounts at three levels in the atmosphere, effective cloud-top temperatures, clear-sky temperature and cloud and clear-sky visible reflectance characteristics from GOES data. The diurnal variations are examined in low, middle, high, and total cloudiness determined with this methodology for November 1978. The bulk, broadband radiative properties of the resultant cloud and clear-sky data are estimated to determine the possible effect of the diurnal variability of regional cloudiness on the interpretation of ERB measurements.

Minnis, P.↗

Effects of Martian dust on power system components

Before large power systems for manned exploration of the Martian surface can be put into place, it must be determined how their performance will be affected by the Martian environment. A program was started to assess the impact of these environmental factors on power system performance, and to find ways to mitigate the degradative effects. The effects of blowing dust on photovoltaic (PV) and radiator surfaces is studied. Extensive use was made of the Martian Surface Wind Tunnel (MARSWIT) located at NASA-Ames to simulate Martian winds. Two basic types of experiment sets were run. In the first, the threshold clearing velocity of dust deposited on PV coverslip material and high emissivity radiator materials in clear Martian-like winds was examined. In the second, dust was dropped near the inlet of the wind tunnel and the winds were allowed to carry the dust past the samples, simulating a dust storm. A summary of results is given.

Gaier, J. R.↗

GPS World, Innovation: Autonomous Navigation at High Earth Orbits

Calculating a spacecraft's precise location at high orbital altitudes-22,000 miles (35,800 km) and beyond-is an important and challenging problem. New and exciting opportunities become possible if satellites are able to autonomously determine their own orbits. First, the repetitive task of periodically collecting range measurements from terrestrial antennas to high altitude spacecraft becomes less important-this lessens competition for control facilities and saves money by reducing operational costs. Also, autonomous navigation at high orbital altitudes introduces the possibility of autonomous station keeping. For example, if a geostationary satellite begins to drift outside of its designated slot it can make orbit adjustments without requiring commands from the ground. Finally, precise onboard orbit determination opens the door to satellites flying in formation-an emerging concept for many scientific space applications. The realization of these benefits is not a trivial task. While the navigation signals broadcast by GPS satellites are well suited for orbit and attitude determination at lower altitudes, acquiring and using these signals at geostationary (GEO) and highly elliptical orbits is much more difficult. The light blue trace describes the GPS orbit at approximately 12,550 miles (20,200 km) altitude. GPS satellites were designed to provide navigation signals to terrestrial users-consequently the antenna array points directly toward the earth. GEO and HE0 orbits, however, are well above the operational GPS constellation, making signal reception at these altitudes more challenging. The nominal beamwidth of a Block II/IIA GPS satellite antenna array is approximately 42.6 degrees. At GEO and HE0 altitudes, most of these primary beam transmissions are blocked by the Earth, leaving only a narrow region of nominal signal visibility near opposing limbs of the earth. This region is highlighted in gray. If GPS receivers at GEO and HE0 orbits were designed to use these higher power signals only, precise orbit determination would not be practical. Fortunately, the GPS satellite antenna array also produces side lobe signals at much lower power levels. NASA has designed and tested the Navigator, a new GPS receiver that can acquire and track these weaker signals, thereby dramatically increasing the signal visibility at these altitudes. While using much weaker signals is a fundamental requirement for a high orbital altitude GPS receiver, it is certainly not the only challenge. There are other unique characteristics of this application that must also be considered. For example, Position Dilution of Precision (PDOP) figures are much higher at GEO and HE0 altitudes because visible GPS satellites are concentrated in a much smaller area with respect to the spacecraft antenna. These poor PDOP values contribute considerable error to the point solutions calculated by the spacecraft GPS receiver. Finally, spacecraft GPS receivers must be designed to withstand a variety of extreme environmental conditions. Variations in acceleration between launch and booster separation are extreme. Temperature gradients in the space environment are also severe. Furthermore, radiation effects are a major concern-spacecraft-borne GPS receivers must be designed with radiation-hardened electronics to guard against this phenomenon, otherwise they simply will not work. Perhaps most importantly, there are no opportunities to repair or modify any space-borne GPS receiver after it has been launched. Great care must be taken to ensure all performance characteristics have been analyzed prior to liftoff.

Bamford, William↗

Erosion Results of the MISSE 8 Polymers Experiment After 2 Years of Space Exposure on the International Space Station

Polymers and other oxidizable materials on the exterior of spacecraft in the low Earth orbit (LEO) space environment can be eroded due to reaction with atomic oxygen (AO). Therefore, in order to design durable spacecraft, it is important to know the LEO AO erosion yield (E(sub y), volume loss per incident oxygen atom) of materials susceptible to AO reaction. A spaceflight experiment, called the Polymers Experiment, which contained 42 samples, was developed to determine the effect of solar exposure on the AO E(sub y) of fluoropolymers flown in ram, wake, or zenith orientations. The Polymers Experiment was exposed to the LEO space environment on the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS) as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 8 (MISSE 8) mission. The MISSE 8 mission included samples flown in a zenith/nadir orientation for 2.14 years in the MISSE 8 Passive Experiment Container (PEC), and samples flown in a ram/wake orientation for 2.0 years in the Optical Reflector Materials Experiment-III (ORMatEIII) tray. The experiment included Kapton H (Registered Trademark) witness samples for AO fluence determination in each orientation. This paper provides an overview of the MISSE 8 mission, a description of the flight experiment with details on the polymers flown, the characterization techniques used, the AO fluence for each exposure orientation, and the LEO E(sub y) results. The E(sub y) of Teflon fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) samples flown in ram, wake, and zenith orientations have been compared, and the E(sub y) was found to be highly dependent on orientation and therefore environmental exposure. The FEP E(sub y) was found to directly correlate with the solar exposure/AO fluence ratio showing the effect of solar radiation and/or heating due to solar exposure on FEP erosion. In addition, back-surface carbon painted FEP (C-FEP) flown in the zenith orientation had a significantly higher E(sub y) than clear FEP or Al-FEP further indicating that heating has a significant impact on the erosion of FEP. This experiment provides valuable LEO flight data on the erosion of Teflon FEP, a commonly used spacecraft thermal insulation.

Teflon↗

Naval Reactors Facility Environmental Monitoring Report (CY2019)

This report presents the results of the radiological and non-radiological environmental monitoring programs for 2019 at the Naval Reactors Facility (NRF). Current operations at NRF are in compliance with applicable regulations governing use, emission, and disposal of solid, liquid, and gaseous materials. The results obtained from the environmental monitoring programs verify that releases to the environment from operations at NRF did not have any adverse effect on human health or the environment. Evaluation of the environmental data confirms that the operation of NRF continues to have no adverse effect on the environment or the health and safety of the general public. Furthermore, a conservative assessment of radiation exposure to the general public as a result of NRF operations demonstrated that the maximum potential dose received by any member of the public was well below the most restrictive dose limits prescribed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phase transition energetics-based mass loss modeling of chondritic Near Earth Objects

Mitigating potentially hazardous asteroids relies on accurate knowledge of their composition and critical physical characteristics such as shape and mass. Ground-based observatories and sample return missions in recent years have focused on such characterization to track Near Earth Objects. Historically, entry speeds of asteroids or mass change due to break-up/airburst have been considered in risk assessment studies as critical parameters. To this effect, most hydrocode simulations that consider energy deposition techniques rely on gross meteor modeling with simplistic spherical shapes while neglecting heat of ablation considerations. This is the general approach for fragment-cloud, pancake and hybrid fragmentation models. Alternatively, aerothermal fragmentation modeling that accounts for meteoritic shape change have typically focused on environmental modeling to understand break-up points primarily due to radiative heating. A physics-based risk assessment could benefit by modeling the environment and material response of typical meteoroidal materials as precursors to fragmentation. A greater focus on the material response to applied environmental heating will be emphasized here. This work presents a forward analysis of thermal and material response of stony meteorites by ac-counting for mass loss and shape change effects through a boundary layer formalism. This allows for simulations starting from simplistic shapes that could eventually lead to alterations in contours due to ablation. These effects would be characterized through phase transitions of the surface, such as melting and vaporization, in response to aerodynamic heating. Coupled ablation and radiative heating effects have been found to lead to reduced heat transfer coefficients in the computation of meteor mass loss rates. This has the potential to increase ground damage footprints for hazardous impacts. The effort here quantifies the heat transfer coefficient by accounting for ablation assisted by phase transition. The melt and vaporization mediated ablation of chondritic meteors provides essential recession estimates based upon surface environments. The altered mass due to such phenomena would be presented for a H-chondrite meteoritic sample.

Pratibha Raghunandan↗

Radiation Exposure Effects and Shielding Analysis of Carbon Nanotube Materials

Carbon nanotube materials promise to be the basis for a variety of emerging technologies with aerospace applications. Potential applications to human space flight include spacecraft shielding, hydrogen storage, structures and fixtures and nano-electronics. Appropriate risk analysis on the properties of nanotube materials is essential for future mission safety. Along with other environmental hazards, materials used in space flight encounter a hostile radiation environment for all mission profiles, from low earth orbit to interplanetary space.

Wilkins, Richard↗

Observations suggest that North African dust absorbs less solar radiation than models estimate

Abstract Desert dust accounts for a large fraction of shortwave radiation absorbed by aerosols, which adds to the climate warming produced by greenhouse gases. However, it remains uncertain exactly how much shortwave radiation dust absorbs. Here, we leverage in-situ measurements of dust single-scattering albedo to constrain absorption at mid-visible wavelength by North African dust, which accounts for approximately half of the global dust. We find that climate and chemical transport models overestimate North African dust absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) by up to a factor of two. This occurs primarily because models overestimate the dust imaginary refractive index, the effect of which is partially masked by an underestimation of large dust particles. Similar factors might contribute to an overestimation of AAOD retrieved by the Aerosol Robotic Network, which is commonly used to evaluate climate and chemical transport models. The overestimation of dust absorption by models could lead to substantial biases in simulated dust impacts on the Earth system, including warm biases in dust radiative effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temporal Trends of Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in Population Exposures to Upstream Oil and Gas Development in California

People living near oil and gas development are exposed to multiple environmental stressors that pose health risks. Some studies suggest these risks are higher for racially and socioeconomically marginalized people, which may be partly attributable to disparities in exposures. We examined whether racially and socioeconomically marginalized people in California are disproportionately exposed to oil and gas wells and associated hazards. We longitudinally assessed exposure to wells during three time periods (2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019) using sociodemographic data at the census block group‐level. For each block group and time period, we assessed exposure to new, active, retired, and plugged wells, and cumulative production volume. We calculated risk ratios to determine whether marginalized people disproportionately resided near wells (within 1 km). Averaged across the three time periods, we estimated that 1.1 million Californians (3.0%) lived within 1 km of active wells. Nearly 9 million Californians (22.9%) lived within 1 km of plugged wells. The proportion of Black residents near active wells was 42%–49% higher than the proportion of Black residents across California, and the proportion of Hispanic residents near active wells was 4%–13% higher than their statewide proportion. Disparities were greatest in areas with the highest oil and gas production, where the proportion of Black residents was 105%–139% higher than statewide. Socioeconomically marginalized residents also had disproportionately high exposure to wells. Though oil and gas production has declined in California, marginalized communities persistently had disproportionately high exposure to wells, potentially contributing to health disparities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

LEO space environmental effects: TRW LDEF experimental trays

Comprised of two identical trays, the TRW Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) experiment (A0054) provided a unique opportunity to study long term space environmental effects on a variety of materials exposed to two different space environments. The leading edge tray saw micrometeors and anthropogenic space debris, ultraviolet radiation, and energetic atomic oxygen. In contrast, the trailing edge tray was exposed to ultraviolet and micrometeors but saw relatively little, if any, space debris fluence and no energetic atomic oxygen. The striking difference in appearance of the two experimental trays is directly attributable to the nonuniformity of the space environment about the LDEF. It is estimated that the majority of the erosion to the Kapton polyimide dielectric material occurred during the last month on orbit due to the sharply nonlinear increase in atomic oxygen number density as orbital altitude decayed over the life of the mission.

Blakkolb, B. K.↗