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DOE OSTI2024

Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of –0.34 [–0.20, –0.50] W m –2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N 2 O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive responses of Trichlorobacter lovleyi to nitrite detoxification reveal overlooked contributions of Geobacterales to nitrate ammonification

Abstract Poorly understood microorganisms “short-circuit” the nitrogen cycle via the dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium to retain the element in agricultural lands and stimulate crop productivity. The prevalence of Geobacterales closely related to Trichlorobacter lovleyi in nitrate ammonification hotspots motivated us to investigate adaptive responses contributing to ammonification rates in the laboratory type strain T. lovleyi SZ. Here, we describe the identification of tightly regulated pathways for efficient nitrate foraging and respiration with acetate, an important intermediate of organic matter degradation that Geobacterales efficiently assimilate and oxidize. Challenging the established dogma that high carbon/nitrate ratios stimulate the reduction of nitrate to ammonium, T. lovleyi doubled rapidly across a wide range of ratios provided nitrate concentrations were low enough to prevent the accumulation of the toxic nitrite intermediate. Yet, excess electrons during hydrogenotrophic growth alleviated nitrite toxicity and stimulated the reduction of nitrate to ammonium even under conditions of severe acetate limitation. These findings underscore the importance of nitrite toxicity in the ammonification of nitrate by Geobacterales and provide much needed mechanistic understanding of microbial adaptations contributing to soil nitrogen conservation. This information is critical to enhance the predictive value of genomic-based traits in environmental surveys and to guide strategies for sustainable management of nitrogen fertilization as well as mitigation of green-house emissions and agrochemical leaching from agricultural lands.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

SimCCS 3.0 User GUIDE

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an important technology aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions and contributing to the mitigation strategies of climate change. The process involves three main steps: CO 2 capture, transport, and storage. Specifically, CO 2 is captured from industrial facilities, such as coal-fired power plants and natural gas processing plants. It is then transported through infrastructure networks, such as pipelines, rails, and ships, and injected into underground geological formations, such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs or deep saline aquifers, for permanent storage. The entire CCS value chain encompasses multiple components, including CO 2 sources, transport networks, and storage sites. The proper design of CCS transport infrastructure is an essential step for the deployment of CCS technology. However, the design is not a trivial process, as it presents many challenges and requires consideration of numerous economic, social, and environmental factors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational Analysis of the Effect of Structured Packing Design on Absorption Column Hydrodynamics for Post-Combustion Carbon Capture Applications

Solvent based post-combustion carbon capture technologies have a potential for reducing carbon emissions from fossil-fuel-fired power plants and industrial sources where CO2 emissions are inherently harder to mitigate, such as steel or cement industries. A prominent technology to achieve this is by retrofitting absorption columns to the existing infrastructure. While these systems have been among the less costly alternatives for carbon capture, they still impose a considerable energy penalty to the operation of power plants or industrial facilities. The optimization of CO2 capture rate in solvent-based absorption process is complex as it depends on several factors including CO2 solubility, solvent reaction kinetics and temperature effects on the solubility, reaction rates, surface tension, and thermophysical properties of the solvent and the flue gas. The overall heat and mass transfer also depends on the hydrodynamics, which in turn, is affected by the packing geometry. In the current work, we systematically quantify the effects the design of the structured packing has on the column hydrodynamics, by performing detailed CFD simulations for different geometrical configurations and operating conditions. We then obtain relationships between the key hydrodynamic metrics, such as liquid holdup, interfacial area, wetted area, and pressure drop to the parameters defining the packing geometries and identify new more effective packing designs for the given operating conditions.

Shah, Yash Girish↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 10, No. 2

Topics discussed include: Mitigation Alternatives for Carbon Dioxide Emissions by the Air Transport Industry in Brazil; Air Transport Regulation Under Transformation: The Case of Switzerland; An Estimation of Aircraft Emissions at Turkish Airports; Guide to the Implementation of Iso 14401 at Airports; The Impact of Constrained Future Scenarios on Aviation and Emissions; The Immediate Financial Impact of Transportation Deregulation on the Stockholders of the Airline Industry; Aviation Related Airport Marketing in an Overlapping Metropolitan Catchment Area: The Case of Milan's Three Airports; and Airport Pricing Systems and Airport Deregulation Effects on Welfare.

Bowen, Brent↗

NASA NTRS2023

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pathways for Agricultural Decarbonization in the United States

In the United States, agricultural production is both a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2022) and uniquely susceptible to climate change impacts (Vermeulen et al., 2012). Decarbonization solutions have been proposed for addressing agricultural GHGs; however, research has been limited in synthesizing qualitative and quantitative analysis of potential GHG mitigation solutions in the United States. In this report, we review U.S. agricultural GHG sources by activity and quantify potential mitigation solutions based on a comprehensive data and literature analysis. We also discuss agricultural carbon sequestration options to offset GHG emissions. In our analysis, we identified two significant and hard-to-abate GHG sources (N 2 O from soil management, and CH 4 from enteric fermentation from livestock) as well as high-impact GHG mitigation solutions (e.g. agroforestry, reforestation, and biochar application) and cross-cutting GHG mitigation solutions (renewable energy production, precision agriculture, no-till, integrated nutrient management, and biochar). This report is meant to provide initial analysis and establish a foundation for future agricultural decarbonization research - it is not an exhaustive analysis of all available studies. However, to our knowledge this report is the most comprehensive assessment of agricultural GHG emissions and associated mitigation opportunities in the United States to date. Future empirical research is recommended to close research gaps in different climates, soils, and agricultural systems. Meta-analyses for all mitigation solutions would increase confidence in the estimated GHG mitigation potentials. To conclude this report, we discuss short-term and long-term pathways for agricultural decarbonization in the United States, the importance of accounting for total GHG fluxes, potential co-benefits of agricultural decarbonization, analysis of study data confidence, and research gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach

Achieving the United States' target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recovery of Natural Gas Equipment Emissions into Gas Compression Engines for the Reduction of Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Since the turn of the millennium, the United States (U.S.) oil and natural gas (ONG) industry has nearly doubled its natural gas production rate. As a result, the ONG industry has recently come under increasing scrutiny for its contributions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, various solutions to this problem have been proposed and formulated to reduce the impacts of GHG emissions on the environment. West Virginia University (WVU) have found it important to research the impacts of recovering vented gas streams into prime-mover engines. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) have granted WVU funding to research and develop a “Methane Mitigator” (M2) - a “Scalable Vent Mitigation Strategy to Simultaneously Reduce Methane Emissions and Fuel Consumption from the Compression Industry.” One of the main areas of interest for this research was the collection of emissions from natural gas equipment into a Caterpillar G3508J natural gas compression engine. The parameters being analyzed from the engine were brake-specific emissions and power output. The emissions sources considered for this research were pneumatic controllers (PCs), reciprocating compressor vents, and the engine’s open crankcase breather. The compressor vent and PC emissions were simulated using a mass flow controller (MFC) and flowed into the engine using two separate methods: (1) directly into the air intake, and (2) through a retrofitted closed crankcase ventilation system (CCV), serving as a buffer volume. The crankcase emissions were quantified without the CCV, and the impact on exhaust emissions from circulating the crankcase gases into the intake was measured. The simulated compressor vent and PC flows from the MFC had limited effect on the steady state operation of the engine and resulting performance. When the simulated flows were fed directly into the engine’s air intake, the changes within the engine’s continuous performance and emission parameters were larger but lasted for shorter durations. Conversely, when the simulated flows were fed into the CCV before entering the air intake, the changes in the engine’s performance and emission parameters were less pronounced for continuous analysis but lasted for longer durations. In either case, the continuous emission changes in both emissions and performance varied in size depending on the test scenario being run, but the cycle average changes in emissions and performance showed little impact overall compared to the engine’s baseline operation. As a result, the inclusion of a CCV shows a decrease in baseline carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq.) engine emissions (from combined exhaust and open crankcase) of almost 4%. Likewise, the CCV inclusion reduced baseline total methane (CH4) from combined exhaust and open crankcase by upwards of 16%. These atmospheric emissions only decreased further with the inclusions of collected PC and compressor vent flows. The resulting changes in time-averaged rated exhaust behavior (or lack thereof) prove that the proposed M2 system could likely be deployed at sites with modern lean-burn natural gas engines as a viable option for reducing and eliminating potential GHG sources that would have otherwise been unutilized as energy sources.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding How Reservoir Operations Influence Methane Emissions: A Conceptual Model

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), understanding controls on methane emissions from reservoirs is an important goal. Yet, reservoirs are complex ecosystems, and mechanisms by which reservoir operations influence methane emissions are poorly understood. In part, this is because emissions occur in ‘hot spots’ and ‘hot moments’. In this study, we address three research questions, ‘What are the causal pathways through which reservoir operations and resulting water level fluctuations (WLF) influence methane emissions?’; ‘How do influences from WLF differ for seasonal drawdown and diurnal hydropeaking operations?’; and ‘How does understanding causal pathways inform practical options for mitigation?’. A graphical conceptual model is presented that links WLF in reservoirs to methane emissions via four causal pathways: (1) water-column mixing (2) drying–rewetting cycles, (3) sediment delivery and redistribution, and (4) littoral vegetation. We review what is known about linkages for WLF at seasonal and diurnal resolutions generate research questions, and hypothesize strategies for moderating methane emissions by interrupting each causal pathway. Those related to flow management involve basin-scale management of tributary flows, seasonal timing of hydropeaking (pathway #1), timing and rates of drawdown (pathway #2). In addition, we describe how sediment (pathway #3) and vegetation management (pathway #4) could interrupt linkages between WLF and emissions. We demonstrate the strength of conceptual modeling as a tool for generating plausible hypotheses and suggesting mitigation strategies. Future research is needed to develop simpler models at appropriate timescales that can be validated and used to manage flow releases from reservoirs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2012

Active Combustion Control for Aircraft Gas-Turbine Engines-Experimental Results for an Advanced, Low-Emissions Combustor Prototype

Lean combustion concepts for aircraft engine combustors are prone to combustion instabilities. Mitigation of instabilities is an enabling technology for these low-emissions combustors. NASA Glenn Research Center s prior activity has demonstrated active control to suppress a high-frequency combustion instability in a combustor rig designed to emulate an actual aircraft engine instability experience with a conventional, rich-front-end combustor. The current effort is developing further understanding of the problem specifically as applied to future lean-burning, very low-emissions combustors. A prototype advanced, low-emissions aircraft engine combustor with a combustion instability has been identified and previous work has characterized the dynamic behavior of that combustor prototype. The combustor exhibits thermoacoustic instabilities that are related to increasing fuel flow and that potentially prevent full-power operation. A simplified, non-linear oscillator model and a more physics-based sectored 1-D dynamic model have been developed to capture the combustor prototype s instability behavior. Utilizing these models, the NASA Adaptive Sliding Phasor Average Control (ASPAC) instability control method has been updated for the low-emissions combustor prototype. Active combustion instability suppression using the ASPAC control method has been demonstrated experimentally with this combustor prototype in a NASA combustion test cell operating at engine pressures, temperatures, and flows. A high-frequency fuel valve was utilized to perturb the combustor fuel flow. Successful instability suppression was shown using a dynamic pressure sensor in the combustor for controller feedback. Instability control was also shown with a pressure feedback sensor in the lower temperature region upstream of the combustor. It was also demonstrated that the controller can prevent the instability from occurring while combustor operation was transitioning from a stable, low-power condition to a normally unstable high-power condition, thus enabling the high-power condition.

DeLaat, John C.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Food Systems: Building the Evidence Base

New estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990–2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding global and regional estimates of energy use in food supply chains, we estimate that total GHG emissions from the food system were about 16 CO2eq yr−1 in 2018, or one-third of the global anthropogenic total. Three quarters of these emissions, 13 Gt CO2eq yr−1, were generated either within the farm gate or in pre- and post-production activities, such as manufacturing, transport, processing, and waste disposal. The remainder was generated through land use change at the conversion boundaries of natural ecosystems to agricultural land. Results further indicate that pre- and post-production emissions were proportionally more important in developed than in developing countries, and that during 1990–2018, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions increased. We also report results on a per capita basis, showing world total food systems per capita emissions decreasing during 1990–2018 from 2.9 to 2.2 t CO2eq cap−1, with per capita emissions in developed countries about twice those in developing countries in 2018. Our findings also highlight that conventional IPCC categories, used by countries to report emissions in the National GHG inventory, systematically underestimate the contribution of the food system to total anthropogenic emissions. We provide a comparative mapping of food system categories and activities in order to better quantify food-related emissions in national reporting and identify mitigation opportunities across the entire food system.

greenhouse gas emissions↗

DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remote methane sensor for emissions from pipelines and compressor stations using chirped-laser dispersion spectroscopy

Leak rates of methane (CH 4 ) from the natural gas supply chain result in lost profit from unsold product, public safety and property concerns due to potential explosion hazards, and a potentially large source of economic damages from legal liabilities. Yet large measurement challenges exist in identifying and quantifying CH 4 leak rates along the vast number and type of components in the natural gas supply chain. This is particularly true of the “midstream” components involved in the gathering, processing, compression, transmission, and storage of natural gas. This project developed and deployed new advances in chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy (CLaDS) to detect methane leaks from pipelines, compressor stations, and other midstream infrastructure from a remote position (standoff detection). The system was deployed from a van to measure fugitive methane leaks from a local compressor station as a proof-of-concept. The technique was validated through mobile laboratory measurements with in-situ sensors as well as controlled releases of methane. The system also mapped a plume from a controlled release of methane by tracking a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that carried a corner cube retroreflector which reflected the beam back to the instrument. The drone-based system quantified a leak rate to within 30% of the actual rate and localized the emission location within 5 m of the actual release location at standoff distances of 25-45 m. This sUAS-reflector tracking approach has benefits for mapping leak locations remotely using small drones flying around a facility. Benefits of a commercial sensor with these capabilities include reductions of leaks for pipeline operators (more profit), earlier detection of leaks to avoid catastrophic explosion hazards for public health and to mitigate property damage, and reduced methane emissions to the atmosphere (improving air quality).

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States

We report residential GHG emissions in the United States are driven in part by a housing stock where onsite fossil combustion is common, home sizes are large by international standards, energy efficiency potential is large and electricity generation in many regions is GHG intensive. In this analysis, we assess decarbonization pathways for the US residential sector to 2060, through 108 scenarios describing housing stock evolution, new housing characteristics, renovation levels and clean electricity. The lowest emission pathways involve very rapid decarbonization of electricity supply alongside extensive renovations to existing homes, including improving thermal envelopes and heat pump electrification of heating. Reducing the size and increasing the electrification of new homes provide further emission cuts and combining all strategies enables reductions of 91% between 2020 and 2050. The potential of individual mitigation strategies shows great regional variation. Reaching zero emissions will require simultaneous deployment of multiple strategies and greater reduction of embodied emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗