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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Characterizing 3D Vegetation Structure from Space: Mission Requirements

Human and natural forces are rapidly modifying the global distribution and structure of terrestrial ecosystems on which all of life depends, altering the global carbon cycle, affecting our climate now and for the foreseeable future, causing steep reductions in species diversity, and endangering Earth s sustainability. To understand changes and trends in terrestrial ecosystems and their functioning as carbon sources and sinks, and to characterize the impact of their changes on climate, habitat and biodiversity, new space assets are urgently needed to produce high spatial resolution global maps of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of vegetation, its biomass above ground, the carbon stored within and the implications for atmospheric green house gas concentrations and climate. These needs were articulated in a 2007 National Research Council (NRC) report (NRC, 2007) recommending a new satellite mission, DESDynI, carrying an L-band Polarized Synthetic Aperture Radar (Pol-SAR) and a multi-beam lidar (Light RAnging And Detection) operating at 1064 nm. The objectives of this paper are to articulate the importance of these new, multi-year, 3D vegetation structure and biomass measurements, to briefly review the feasibility of radar and lidar remote sensing technology to meet these requirements, to define the data products and measurement requirements, and to consider implications of mission durations. The paper addresses these objectives by synthesizing research results and other input from a broad community of terrestrial ecology, carbon cycle, and remote sensing scientists and working groups. We conclude that: (1) current global biomass and 3-D vegetation structure information is unsuitable for both science and management and policy. The only existing global datasets of biomass are approximations based on combining land cover type and representative carbon values, instead of measurements of actual biomass. Current measurement attempts based on radar and multispectral data have low explanatory power outside low biomass areas. There is no current capability for repeatable disturbance and regrowth estimates. (2) The science and policy needs for information on vegetation 3D structure can be successfully addressed by a mission capable of producing (i) a first global inventory of forest biomass with a spatial resolution 1km or finer and unprecedented accuracy (ii) annual global disturbance maps at a spatial resolution of 1 ha with subsequent biomass accumulation rates at resolutions of 1km or finer, and (iii) transects of vertical and horizontal forest structure with 30 m along-transect measurements globally at 25 m spatial resolution, essential for habitat characterization. We also show from the literature that lidar profile samples together with wall-to53 wall L-band quad-pol-SAR imagery and ecosystem dynamics models can work together to satisfy these vegetation 3D structure and biomass measurement requirements. Finally we argue that the technology readiness levels of combined pol-SAR and lidar instruments are adequate for space flight. Remaining to be worked out, are the particulars of a lidar/pol-SAR mission design that is feasible and at a minimum satisfies the information and measurement requirement articulated herein.

Hall, Forrest G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Light Regulation of Phytoplankton Growth in San Francisco Bay Studied Using a 3D Sediment Transport Model

In San Francisco Bay (SFB), light availability is largely determined by the concentration of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the water column. SPM exhibits substantial variation with time, depth, and location. To study how SPM influences light and phytoplankton growth, we coupled a sediment transport model with a hydrodynamic model and a biogeochemical model. The coupled models were used to simulate conditions for the year of 2011 with a focus on northern SFB. For comparison, two simulations were conducted with ecosystem processes driven by SPM concentrations supplied by the sediment transport model and by applying a constant SPM concentration of 20 mg l –1 . The sediment transport model successfully reproduced the general pattern of SPM variation in northern SFB, which improved the chlorophyll-a simulation resulting from the biogeochemical model, with vertically integrated primary productivity varying greatly, from 40 g[C] m –2 year –1 over shoals to 160 g[C] m –2 year –1 in the deep channel. Primary productivity in northern SFB is influenced by euphotic zone depth ( Ze ). Our results show that Ze in shallow water regions (<2 m) is mainly determined by water depth, while Ze in deep water regions is controlled by SPM concentration. As a result, Ze has low (high) values in shallow (deep) water regions. Large (small) differences in primary productivity exist between the two simulations in deep (shallow) water regions. Furthermore, we defined a new parameter F light for “averaged light limitation” in the euphotic zone. The averaged chlorophyll-a concentration in the euphotic zone and F light share a similar distribution such that both have high (low) values in shallow (deep) water regions. Our study demonstrates that light is a critical factor in regulating the phytoplankton growth in northern SFB, and a sediment transport model improves simulation of light availability in the water column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dose Response, Dosimetric, and Metabolic Evaluations of Replacement PFAS Perfluoro-(2,5,8-trimethyl-3,6,9-trioxadodecanoic) Acid (HFPO-TeA)

Few studies are available on the environmental and toxicological effects of perfluoroalkyl ether carboxylic acids (PFECAs), such as GenX, which are replacing legacy PFAS in manufacturing processes. To collect initial data on the toxicity and toxicokinetics of a longer-chain PFECA, male and female Sprague Dawley rats were exposed to perfluoro-(2,5,8-trimethyl-3,6,9-trioxadodecanoic) acid (HFPO-TeA) by oral gavage for five days over multiple dose levels (0.3–335.2 mg/kg/day). Clinically, we observed mortality at doses >17 mg/kg/day and body weight changes at doses ≤ 17 mg/kg/day. For the 17 mg/kg/day dose level, T3 and T4 thyroid hormone concentrations were significantly decreased (p < 0.05) from controls and HFPO-TeA plasma concentrations were significantly different between sexes. Non-targeted analysis of plasma and in vitro hepatocyte assay extractions revealed the presence of another GenX oligomer, perfluoro-(2,5-dimethyl-3,6-dioxanonanoic) acid (HFPO-TA). In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) parameterized with in vitro toxicokinetic data predicted steady-state blood concentrations that were within seven-fold of those observed in the in vivo study, demonstrating reasonable predictivity. The evidence of thyroid hormone dysregulation, sex-based differences in clinical results and dosimetry, and IVIVE predictions presented here suggest that the replacement PFECA HFPO-TeA induces a complex and toxic exposure response in rodents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate, Hydrology, and Nutrients Control the Seasonality of Si Concentrations in Rivers

Abstract The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termedDSi regime, mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large‐scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Massive peatland carbon banks vulnerable to rising temperatures

Peatlands contain one-third of the world’s soil carbon (C). If destabilized, decomposition of this vast C bank could accelerate climate warming; however, the likelihood of this outcome remains unknown. Here, we examine peatland C stability through five years of whole-ecosystem warming and two years of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO 2 ). Warming exponentially increased methane (CH 4 ) emissions and enhanced CH 4 production rates throughout the entire soil profile; although surface CH 4 production rates remain much greater than those at depth. Additionally, older deeper C sources played a larger role in decomposition following prolonged warming. Most troubling, decreases in CO 2 :CH 4 ratios in gas production, porewater concentrations, and emissions, indicate that the peatland is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We observed limited evidence of eCO 2 effects. Our results suggest that ecosystem responses are largely driven by surface peat, but that the vast C bank at depth in peatlands is responsive to prolonged warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Modeling and control for closed environment plant production systems

A computer program was developed to study multiple crop production and control in controlled environment plant production systems. The program simulates crop growth and development under nominal and off-nominal environments. Time-series crop models for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max), and white potato (Solanum tuberosum) are integrated with a model-based predictive controller. The controller evaluates and compensates for effects of environmental disturbances on crop production scheduling. The crop models consist of a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, six for each crop, developed using multivariate polynomial regression (MPR). Simulated data from DSSAT crop models, previously modified for crop production in controlled environments with hydroponics under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, were used for the MPR fitting. The model-based predictive controller adjusts light intensity, air temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration set points in response to environmental perturbations. Control signals are determined from minimization of a cost function, which is based on the weighted control effort and squared-error between the system response and desired reference signal.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement report: Properties of aerosol and gases in the vertical profile during the LAPSE-RATE campaign

Abstract. Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) are increasingly being used as observation platforms for atmospheric applications. The Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) in Alamosa, Colorado, USA, on 14–20 July 2018 investigated and validated different UASs, measurement sensors and setup configurations. Flight teams from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and Kansas State University (KSU) participated in LAPSE-RATE to measure and investigate properties of aerosol particles and gases in the lower atmosphere. During the experiment, the performance of different UAS configurations were investigated and confirmed to operate reliably, resulting in a scientifically sound observational dataset. As an example, concentration of aerosols – including two new particle formation events, CO2 and water vapor, and meteorological parameters in the atmospheric vertical profile were measured during the short experiment. Such observations characterizing atmospheric phenomena of this specific environment would have not been possible in any other way and, thus, demonstrate the power of UASs as new, promising tools in atmospheric and environmental research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structural Characterization of Toxicologically Relevant Cd 2+ -L-Cysteine Complexes

The exposure of humans to Cd exerts adverse human health effects at low chronic exposure doses, but the underlying biomolecular mechanisms are incompletely understood. To gain insight into the toxicologically relevant chemistry of Cd 2+ in the bloodstream, we employed an anion-exchange HPLC coupled to a flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS) using a mobile phase of 100 mM NaCl with 5 mM Tris-buffer (pH 7.4) to resemble protein-free blood plasma. The injection of Cd 2+ onto this HPLC-FAAS system was associated with the elution of a Cd peak that corresponded to [CdCl 3 ] - /[CdCl 4 ] 2- complexes. The addition of 0.1–10 mM L-cysteine (Cys) to the mobile phase significantly affected the retention behavior of Cd 2+ , which was rationalized by the on-column formation of mixed CdCysxCly complexes. From a toxicological point of view, the results obtained with 0.1 and 0.2 mM Cys were the most relevant because they resembled plasma concentrations. The corresponding Cd-containing (~30 μM) fractions were analyzed by X-ray absorption spectroscopy and revealed an increased sulfur coordination to Cd 2+ when the Cys concentration was increased from 0.1 to 0.2 mM. The putative formation of these toxicologically relevant Cd species in blood plasma was implicated in the Cd uptake into target organs and underscores the notion that a better understanding of the metabolism of Cd in the bloodstream is critical to causally link human exposure with organ-based toxicological effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Microbial colonization of a closed growth chamber during hydroponic cultivation of lettuce

The goal of this study was to characterize sessile and planktonic microbiota that developed during two successive hydroponic cultures of lettuce in a closed chamber system. Coupons of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) placed in the nutrient solution lines were removed periodically, as were samples of the nutrient solutions and condensate from the air-handling system. The bacteria and fungi present on the coupons and in fluid samples were enumerated by direct plate counts. Disinfecting the hydroponic system with 0.1% hypochlorite and 0.1 N nitric acid reduced the bacterial densities in biofilm samples from 1 x 10 7 CFU/10 cm 2 to 1 x 10 1 CFU/10 cm 2 and eliminated culturable fungi; Staphylococcus sp., Pseudomonas sp., and Micrococcus sp. survived this procedure. Bacterial and fungal concentrations in all samples returned to predisinfection levels after 2 days of plant growth. Pseudomonas and Acremonium predominated both before and after disinfection. Fungal concentrations never exceeded 7 x 10 2 CFU/10 cm 2 . The coupon microbiota differed from that of the rhizoplane at harvest. Overall, the greatest numbers of species were found on the rhizoplane samples collected during the second crop. The microbial community changed little during individual crops or between successive crops. Diversity indices remained relatively constant for all samples.

Bacteria growth & development↗
NASA NTRS2003

Biodegradation pathway of an anionic surfactant (Igepon TC-42) during recycling waste water through plant hydroponics for advanced life support during long-duration space missions

The degradation of an anionic surfactant (Igepon TC-42) was investigated as part of an integrated study of direct recycling of human hygiene water through hydroponic plant growth systems. Several chemical approaches were developed to characterize the degradation of Igepon and to measure the accumulation of intermediates such as fatty acids and methyl taurine. Igepon was rapidly degraded as indicated by the reduction of methylene blue active substances (MBAS) and component fatty acids. The Igepon degradation rate continued to increase over a period of several weeks following repeated daily exposure to 18 micrograms/l Igepon. The accumulation of free fatty acids and methyl taurine was also observed during decomposition of Igepon. The concentration of methyl taurine was below detection limit (0.2 nmol/ml) during the slow phase of Igepon degradation, and increased to 1-2 nmol/ml during the phase of rapid degradation. These findings support a degradation pathway involving initial hydrolysis of amide to release fatty acids and methyl taurine, and subsequent degradation of these intermediates. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sulfate adenylyl transferase kinetics and mechanisms of metabolic inhibitors of microbial sulfate respiration

Abstract Sulfate analog oxyanions that function as selective metabolic inhibitors of dissimilatory sulfate reducing microorganisms (SRM) are widely used in ecological studies and industrial applications. As such, it is important to understand the mode of action and mechanisms of tolerance or adaptation to these compounds. Different oxyanions vary widely in their inhibitory potency and mechanism of inhibition, but current evidence suggests that the sulfate adenylyl transferase/ATP sulfurylase (Sat) enzyme is an important target. We heterologously expressed and purified the Sat from the model SRM, Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20. With this enzyme we determined the turnover kinetics (kcat, KM) for alternative substrates (molybdate, selenate, arsenate, monofluorophosphate, and chromate) and inhibition constants (KI) for competitive inhibitors (perchlorate, chlorate, and nitrate). These measurements enable the first quantitative comparisons of these compounds as substrates or inhibitors of a purified Sat from a respiratory sulfate reducer. We compare predicted half-maximal inhibitory concentrations (IC50) based on Sat kinetics with measured IC50 values against D. alaskensis G20 growth and discuss our results in light of known mechanisms of sensitivity or resistance to oxyanions. This analysis helps with the interpretation of recent adaptive laboratory evolution studies and illustrates the value of interpreting gene–microbe–environment interactions through the lens of enzyme kinetics.

Carlson, Hans K. (ORCID:0000000215835313)↗
NASA NTRS2022

Lake Champlain Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Identify Spatial and Seasonal Trends of Harmful Algal Events in Lake Champlain

Lake Champlain provides clean drinking water for 35% of the surrounding watershed and offers recreational opportunities to millions of tourists. However, current levels of cyanobacteria and phosphorus created breeding grounds for harmful algal blooms (HABs). The excess of phosphorus runoff into Lake Champlain over the past decade encouraged toxic cyanobacterial formations, thereby increasing the severity of HABs towards local economy and ecology. In partnership with the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Northeast Region, this project utilized Earth observations to identify risk factors associated with toxic algal blooms. The team detected historic algal bloom trends with Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 9 OLI-2. The team also used Sentinel-3 OLCI and the German Aerospace Center’s Earth Sensing Imagery Spectrometer (DESIS) to visualize algal bloom patterns and Landsat 8 OLI, Landsat 9 OLI-2, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to identify phosphorus sources within the watershed. The team’s analyses indicated an increase in cyanobacteria blooms during summer months from 2016-2022, with Missisquoi and St. Albans Bay exhibiting the greatest concentrations of toxic events. Furthermore, 16% of the watershed was identified as posing an immediate threat to the lake’s hydrology. The area of greatest concern was the Missisquoi Bay sub-watershed, with 229,044 acres of land prone to excessive phosphorus runoff. Providing this information to the NRCS Northeast Region enabled the organization to quantify risk factors associated with algal blooms and modify mitigation efforts to better target future bloom events.

Brianne Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fe-rich X-ray amorphous material records past climate and persistence of water on Mars

X-ray amorphous material comprises 15-73 wt.% of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater. This material is variably siliceous and iron rich but aluminum poor. The presence of volatiles is consistent with the existence of incipient weathering products. To better understand the implications of this material for past aqueous conditions on Mars, here we investigate X-ray amorphous material formation and longevity within terrestrial iron rich soils with varying ages and environmental conditions using bulk and selective dissolution methods, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy. Results indicate that in situ aqueous alteration is required to concentrate iron into clay-size fraction material. Cooler climates promote the formation and persistence of X-ray amorphous material whereas warmer climates promote the formation of crystalline secondary phases. Iron rich X-ray amorphous material formation and persistence on Mars are therefore consistent with past cool and relatively wet environments followed by long-term cold and dry conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mule Deer and Pronghorn Antelope on the Nevada National Security Site GPS Radio-Collar Study 2019 – 2022 Radiological Results

A research study involving the capture, global-positioning system (GPS) radio-collaring, and tracking of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and pronghorn antelope (Antilocapra americana) on the NNSS was conducted November 2019 through October 2022. The purpose of this study is to better understand their habitat use, potential overlap with radiological areas on the NNSS, radionuclide concentrations in, and dose to, pronghorn and mule deer, and radiological dose to humans potentially consuming these animals.

dose↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking large-scale circulation patterns to low-cloud properties

Abstract. The North Pacific High (NPH) is a fundamental meteorological feature present during the boreal warm season. Marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, which are persistent in this oceanic region, are influenced directly by the NPH. In this study, we combine 11 years of reanalysis and an unsupervised machine learning technique to examine the gamut of 850 hPa synoptic-scale circulation patterns. This approach reveals two distinguishable regimes – a dominant NPH setup and a land-falling cyclone – and in between a spectrum of large-scale patterns. We then use satellite retrievals to elucidate for the first time the explicit dependence of MBL cloud properties (namely cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water path, and shortwave cloud radiative effect – CRESW) on 850 hPa circulation patterns over the northeast Pacific Ocean. We find that CRESW spans from −146.8 to −115.5 W m−2, indicating that the range of observed MBL cloud properties must be accounted for in global and regional climate models. Our results demonstrate the value of combining reanalysis and satellite retrievals to help clarify the relationship between synoptic-scale dynamics and cloud physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗