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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Superhard Materials: Advances in the Search and Synthesis of New Materials

Materials with superior hardness can be categorized as ultrahard (Vickers hardness, H v ≥ 80 GPa) and superhard (H v ≥ 40 GPa). These materials are commonly used as cutting tools and abrasives in the machining and manufacturing industries. With its extreme hardness, diamond is the best known and most used ultrahard material for industrial applications. However, it is ineffective at cutting and drilling ferrous alloys due to diamond's high reactivity with iron and poor thermal stability in air. Additionally, the synthesis of diamond requires both high pressure (HP) and high temperature, making it an expensive process. These limitations have driven the search for alternative superhard materials that are capable of cutting steels and other materials at lower costs. This article reviews the concept of hardness and summarizes advancements in the synthesis and mechanical properties of hard materials. It begins with a review of methods to measure hardness, adding HP diffraction methods to more conventional hardness measurements. It then considers new ultrahard materials that exist within the B–C–N ternary system, with hardness approaching diamond but improved chemical stability. Finally, it surveys superhard nitrides, oxides, and borides as potential alternative materials, focusing on transition metal boride systems where the synthesis can be readily achieved at ambient pressure and scaled for industrial applications. We hope that this article serves as an overview of hard materials and guide for the comparison of data reported in the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydro-mechanical measurements and x-ray imaging of sheared crystalline rock fractures from EGS Collab experiments 1 & 2

Measuring hydro-mechanical properties of natural fractures is a prerequisite for optimizing hydraulic stimulation design and well placement. We completed experiments to characterize shear on natural fractures in schist, amphibolite, and rhyolite specimens drilled from EGS Collab Project’s field sites at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. A triaxial direct shear method and coupled x-ray imaging were used to perform hydroshearing and mechanical shearing at the site’s in-situ stress conditions. This produced simultaneous measurements of fracture and matrix strength, permeability, stress-dependent aperture, dilation, and friction strength. Our results identified that only a subset of the natural fractures was weak enough for hydroshearing. Generally, hydroshearing increases fracture permeability by a factor of 10 or more and the enhancement is retainable over time. However, the shear slip does not always result in permeability enhancement. High content of phyllosilicates was found to associate with exceptionally weak fractures that also exhibited poor or even negative enhancement after stimulation. Combining our measurements with site data, we can predict that most observable fractures at the two EGS Collab sites do not meet the criteria for hydroshearing before tensile opening. In some cases, the visible fractures are low permeability and as strong as the adjacent rock. To induce hydroshearing before tensile opening, injection must target known weak and favorably oriented fractures with confirmed pre-existing permeability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature response and brine availability to heated boreholes in bedded salt

Abstract There is a growing need for disposal of high‐level nuclear waste. To reduce uncertainty associated with brine availability to repository excavations in salt formations, a collaboration between Sandia, Los Alamos, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories is performing a series of borehole‐scale coupled process tests. Here, we report on the first round of the Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) project, a “shakedown” experiment called Phase 1s. Experimental testing included placing a resistive heater, a 260‐W radiative heater, and a 750‐W radiative heater within previously drilled horizontal boreholes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) while monitoring temperature and water inflow. The experiments successfully achieved the targeted temperature of 120 °C when using the 750‐W radiative heater. Simulations using FEHM (Finite Element Heat and Mass transfer code) and TOUGH‐FLAC (Transport Of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat–Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) were able to accurately predict the coupled thermo–hydro–mechanical–chemical response of salt, matching the observed temperature and brine production. Due to the extremely low permeability of salt, these systems take many years to reach steady state when perturbed by mining activities. Long‐term numerical simulations are used to develop the initial pressure and saturation conditions. The inclusion of a damaged rock zone with higher permeability around the borehole also affects the saturation and pressure distributions and plays an important role in dissipating the potential for thermal pressurization. Knowledge gained from this round of experimentation and simulation will be used to conduct the next BATS project experiment in new boreholes at WIPP.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater characterization and monitoring at a complex industrial waste site using electrical resistivity imaging

A contaminated industrial waste site in Washington State (USA) containing buried, metallic-waste storage tanks, pipes, and wells, was evaluated to determine the feasibility of monitoring groundwater remediation activities associated with an underlying perched aquifer system using electrical resistivity tomography. The perched aquifer, located ~65 m below ground surface and ~10 m above the regional water table, contains high concentrations of nitrate, uranium, and other contaminants of concern from past tank leaks and intentional releases of wastes to surface disposal sites. The extent of the perched water aquifer is not well known, and the effectiveness of groundwater extraction for contaminant removal is uncertain, so supplemental characterization and monitoring technologies are being evaluated. Numerical simulations of subsurface flow and contaminant transport were performed with a highly resolved model of the hydrogeologic system and waste site infrastructure, and these simulations were used as the physical basis for electrical resistivity tomography modeling. The modeling explicitly accounted for metallic infrastructure at the site. The effectiveness of using surface electrodes versus surface and horizontal subsurface electrodes, for imaging groundwater extraction from the perched water aquifer, was investigated. Although directional drilling is a mature technology, its use for electrode emplacement in the deep subsurface under a complex industrial waste site via horizontal wells has not yet been demonstrated. Results from this study indicate that using horizontal subsurface electrode arrays could significantly improve the ability of electrical resistivity tomography to image deep subsurface features and monitor remediation activities under complex industrial waste sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to characterize gas hydrate reservoirs in Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and on the Alaska north slope (USA)

Here, artificial neural network-trained models were used to predict gas hydrate saturation distributions in permafrost-associated deposits in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend on the Alaska North Slope (ANS), USA and at the Mallik research site in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The database of Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) and wireline logs collected at five wells (Mount Elbert, Ignik Sikumi, and Kuparuk 7–11–12 wells at ANS, plus 2L-38 and 5L-38 wells at the Mallik research site) includes more than 10,000 depth points, which were used for training, validation, and testing the machine learning (ML) models. Data used in training the ML models include the well logs of density, porosity, electrical resistivity, gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity measurements. Combinations of two or three out of these five well logs were found to reliably predict the gas hydrate saturation with accuracy varying between 80 and 90% when compared to the gas hydrate saturations derived from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based technique. The ML models trained on data from three ANS wells achieved high fidelity predictions of gas hydrate saturation at the Mallik site. The results obtained in this study indicate that ML models trained on data from one geological basin can successfully predict key reservoir parameters for permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations within another basin. A generalized approach for selecting a well log combination that can improve model accuracy is discussed. Overall, the study outcome supports earlier work demonstrating that ML models trained on non-NMR well logs are a viable alternative to physics-driven methods for predicting gas hydrate saturations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interlaboratory Reproducibility of Contour Method Data in a High Strength Aluminum Alloy

The contour method for residual stress measurement has seen significant development, but an experimental reproducibility study utilizing physical samples has not been published. A double-blind reproducibly study is reported, having scope beginning with EDM cutting and ending with residual stress calculation. A reinforced I-beam sample geometry is identified for its unique residual stress profile when extracted from residual stress bearing quenched aluminum bar (7050-T74). Contour measurements are prescribed on a midplane of symmetry with dimensions 24.0 mm by 50.0 mm. Fourteen identically prepared samples are fabricated from a single long bar with well characterized and uniform residual stress. Five samples throughout the bar are identified for planning measurements to validate sample uniformity and overall suitability of the residual stress field. The planning measurements employ a range of techniques: contour method, neutron diffraction, and hole-drilling. Eight samples are distributed to an international group of participants to execute their standard measurement practice. A double-blind process is followed to provide anonymity. Results are provided by eight participants: six being self-similar and two being quite different, the latter set aside as outliers. An average residual stress field is established from non-outlying results and the spatial distribution of reproducibility standard deviation is determined. The average stress field ranges from -60 to 70 MPa and the reproducibility standard deviation averages 8.1 MPa on the measurement plane. The average reproducibility standard deviation is about 3 × larger for points within 1.0 mm of plane boundaries (17.6 MPa) than for the remaining points (6.1 MPa). Reproducibility standard deviation (among different labs) for contour method residual stress measurement is found to be very similar to repeatability standard deviation (in a single lab) reported in prior work. The reproducibility observed here, for the entire measurement process, is also similar to that found in a prior reproducibility study limited to contour method data analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining

Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Large-Scale Electrical Imaging into Geological Framework Development and Refinement

Geologic framework models (GFMs) are critical to the construction of reliable simulation models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. To support GFM development, direct information (e.g., core samples, fluid samples, hydraulic testing) tends to be sparse and separated by large distances relative to the spatial scales of aquifer heterogeneity. There are additional challenges associated with highly contaminated legacy waste sites, where drilling is particularly costly, and invasive sampling requires specialized handling and disposal of hazardous materials. At these sites in particular, non-invasive geophysical imaging can play an important role in filling spatial gaps between boreholes and reducing characterization costs by optimizing and minimizing the number of necessary boreholes. Here this paper presents a case study demonstrating the use of large-scale (> 30 km 2 ) electrical mapping to identify hydrostratigraphy and potential paleochannels at the Hanford Site, located in Washington State, USA. In two field campaigns, over 36 line-kilometers of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data were collected along 14 transects. ERT surveys were sited and performed to image critical aspects (e.g., paleochannels, stratigraphic contacts) of the subsurface, demonstrating a general workflow for integrating ERT with GFM development. Inconsistencies between the GFM and ERT were catalogued to provide a basis for future site characterization using complementary geophysical methods and (or) direct sampling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating the effect of preheating temperature on melt pool morphology variation in Inconel 718 laser powder bed fusion via simulation and experiment

In laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing, the mechanical performance, microstructure and defects of fabricated parts are closely associated with the melt pool morphology, e.g., its dimension and shape through the building process. Past studies have largely focused on how the process parameters such as laser power and scan speed affect melt pool characteristics. In this study, the melt pool morphology variation as a function of preheating temperature in the conduction, transition, and keyhole regimes and the underlying mechanisms in each regime are investigated through ex-situ sample characterization and computation thermal fluid dynamics (CtFD) simulation. Single tracks with different combinations of laser power and scan speed are deposited on an Inconel 718 bare plate preheated to a temperature range of 100–500 °C in the experiment. Significant changes are observed in melt pool morphology as a function of preheating temperature from optical measurements of melt track cross sections. The depth of melt pool in the three regimes increases monotonically with preheating temperature, e.g., at 500 °C, the experimental melt pool depth is increased by 49% in conduction regime, 34% in transition regime and 33% in keyhole regime, respectively, while the variation of melt pool width in each regime does not all follow an increasing trend but depends on the melt pool regimes. Melt pool width variation in the conduction and transition regimes is found to depend on the enhanced heat conduction directly related to temperature dependent thermal properties. Through validated CtFD simulations, it is found that in the keyhole regime the evaporation mass, recoil pressure, and laser drilling effect is enhanced with higher preheating temperature, which gives rise to a deeper melt pool. The simulations also reveal that preheating temperature significantly elongates the melt track length due to the increased flow rate and strong recoil pressure that accelerates the backward flow.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A better understanding of the mechanics of borehole breakout utilizing a finite strain gradient-enhanced micropolar continuum model

Borehole breakout denotes the failure in rock mass subjected to drilling, caused by stress concentrations exceeding the material strength. Depending on the material properties, the preexisting in situ stress state, and the borehole dimensions, different types of borehole breakout, such as spiral-shaped breakout or v-shaped breakout, are distinguished in the literature. In the present work, we address the influence of the material properties on the predicted borehole breakout mode in a comprehensive finite element study. To this end, herein we employ a gradient-enhanced micropolar damage-plasticity model based on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion, formulated in the finite strain regime, which is calibrated based on experimental results from plane strain compression tests on Red Wildmoor sandstone. In the numerical study, the influence of the in situ stress state, the material friction angle, plastic dilation, post peak residual strength, and the inherent material length scale parameters are investigated. Thereby, we demonstrate that depending on the material parameters, substantially different failure modes, characterized by strongly localized shear bands or diffuse failure zones, are predicted. It is shown that in particular the brittleness of the material in the post peak regime has a major influence on the predicted breakout type. Moreover, a statistical validation of the results is obtained by considering different random field distributions of the initial material strength.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Macro-level mechanical interlocking: A rapid joining approach for additively manufactured compression molded composite panels

Composite joining typically involves multiple steps, such as drilling and surface treatment, as part of the manufacturing process, which leads to low throughput and long cycle times. In the present study, we demonstrated a macro-level mechanical interlocking (MI) based, rapid joining technique to assemble additively manufactured compression molded (AMCM) panels, enabling the production of parts larger than the mold dimensions. Composite panels made of 20 wt% short carbon fiber reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (CF/ABS) were joined using MI features of various geometries, namely tree (TR), dovetail (Dov), rectangle 2 (Rect2), and rectangle 1 (Rect1), and their in-plane strength was evaluated. The resultant strength of the tested MI joints reached up to 74 % of the baseline tensile strength (i.e., the ‘no joint’ case). Observations from optical and scanning electron microscopy revealed inadequate polymer diffusion between the adherends, indicating that the joint strength was primarily derived from mechanical interlocking. Additionally, the fracture surfaces exhibited stress-whitening marks, which were characterized using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The increase in melting enthalpy suggested local stretching of polymer chains due to MI. Finite element analysis (FEA) indicated that the Rect1 MI feature, which generated the lowest stress concentration, outperformed the others in terms of joint strength, achieving 42 MPa. As a demonstration of the MI joining method, a battery box tray measuring 108 cm × 34 cm using a mold with an effective dimension of 36 cm × 34 cm successfully manufactured, resulting in a part with an area three times larger than the mold. In conclusion, this study presents a promising approach to improving composite joining techniques while minimizing production complexities.

In-plane joining↗
DOE OSTI2024

Co-treating flue gas desulfurized effluent and produced water enables novel waste management and recovery of critical minerals

Herein this study reports a novel approach of resource recovery from co-managing two geographically co-located and chemically complementary wastewaters using a pilot-scale treatment process. Designed to treat flue gas desulfurized (FGD) effluent from combustion powerplants and produced water (PW) from energy industries, the process consists of soda-ash softening, nanofiltration (NF), and reverse osmosis (RO). Recovered products are barite, calcite, and low-salinity water. Using field-collected waters, the results show that softening at pH 8.5 produces calcite (yield: 30 kg/m 3 treated water), a chemical used as SO ₂(g) scrubbers. NF treatment under an applied pressure of 3.5 MPa yields a permeate stream laden with monovalent ions (water recovery 60%) and a concentrate stream with a sulfate concentration 1.8 times of the feedwater concentration. Mixing the NF concentrate and PW at a volumetric ratio of 1.0 precipitates a high-density barite material (4.1 g/cm 3 , yield: ~7.5 kg/m 3 mixture) – a critical mineral commonly used as a weighting agent in drilling. The RO treatment recovers >64% water as the permeate, which can be readily used as cooling make-up water at the powerplants. The RO concentrate stream can be further processed in a thermal evaporative system for additional water recovery and brine production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

CFD modeling of near-wall combustion and unburned methane prediction in natural gas spark ignition engines

Natural gas-powered engines play a critical role in gas drilling, compression, and transmission sectors, but methane (CH 4 ) from engine combustion slip can be significant over their lifespan, contributing to atmospheric pollution and signaling reduced engine efficiency. Here, to address this challenge, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer valuable insights into the in-cylinder combustion process, enabling the optimization of combustion strategies and engine designs to minimize unburned CH 4 slip. This study aims to evaluate and improve combustion models for simulating the combustion process and predicting unburned CH 4 concentrations in natural gas spark-ignition (SI) engines, including engines that are part of combined reformer-engine systems. Specifically, the performance of two flamelet-based combustion models—the Extended Coherent Flame Model (ECFM) and the G-equation model—was assessed using experimental engine data collected under varying excess-air ratio (λ) conditions and fuel compositions, including natural gas and syngas blends. In addition, to enhance the predictive capabilities of the G-equation model, a flame-wall interaction (FWI) sub-model was integrated into its framework. The effects of its model parameters, such as quenching and influence distance, on combustion behavior and unburned methane predictions were analyzed in detail. The ECFM tended to predict delayed combustion phasing under diluted mixture conditions, resulting in overprediction of unburned CH 4 concentrations. In contrast, the G-equation model provided reasonable predictions of combustion pressure, while representing higher the CH 4 reduction rate across the operating condition compared to experimental data. Incorporating the FWI sub-model—with the quenching distance calculated based on a pressure-dependent relation (P -0.48 ) and a fixed influence distance of 1.5 mm—further improved the G-equation model’s accuracy in predicting CH 4 reduction rates without compromising its ability to simulate the combustion process.

Combustion model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Play Fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i: 4. Updates with new groundwater chemistry, subsurface stress analysis, and focused geophysical surveys

This paper is the fourth in a series on a play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i. Here we describe recent exploration activities that include groundwater sampling in ten locations statewide, as well as geophysical surveys on Lana‘i, across the SW rift of Haleakala Volcano (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea Volcano (Hawai‘i Island). We derive a first-order method for computing topographic stress using Green’s functions, finding that topography can induce appreciable crustal stress. We develop a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and topographic stresses into our previously published equations to calculate resource probability and confidence. We incorporate newly collected and modeled data into our calculations to update statewide maps of probability and confidence. Lana‘i Island and southeast Mauna Kea are identified as the top targets for exploratory drilling. The east rift of Haleakala Volcano, the southern-most region of Mauna Loa’s SW rift (Hawai‘i Island), and central Kauai are identified as targets for geophysical surveying.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗