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At least 361 records · Page 20

Determining the Optimal Number of Clusters with the Clustergram

Cluster analysis aids research in many different fields, from business to biology to aerospace. It consists of using statistical techniques to group objects in large sets of data into meaningful classes. However, this process of ordering data points presents much uncertainty because it involves several steps, many of which are subject to researcher judgment as well as inconsistencies depending on the specific data type and research goals. These steps include the method used to cluster the data, the variables on which the cluster analysis will be operating, the number of resulting clusters, and parts of the interpretation process. In most cases, the number of clusters must be guessed or estimated before employing the clustering method. Many remedies have been proposed, but none is unassailable and certainly not for all data types. Thus, the aim of current research for better techniques of determining the number of clusters is generally confined to demonstrating that the new technique excels other methods in performance for several disparate data types. Our research makes use of a new cluster-number-determination technique based on the clustergram: a graph that shows how the number of objects in the cluster and the cluster mean (the ordinate) change with the number of clusters (the abscissa). We use the features of the clustergram to make the best determination of the cluster-number.

Fluegemann, Joseph K.↗

Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers

The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such understanding is critical in extrapolating databases between cellular response, animal carcinogenesis and human carcinogenesis, and we suggest that the SAO model is a useful tool for such extrapolation.

Non-NASA Center↗

Real-time transmission of digital video using variable-length coding

Huffman coding is a variable-length lossless compression technique where data with a high probability of occurrence is represented with short codewords, while 'not-so-likely' data is assigned longer codewords. Compression is achieved when the high-probability levels occur so frequently that their benefit outweighs any penalty paid when a less likely input occurs. One instance where Huffman coding is extremely effective occurs when data is highly predictable and differential coding can be applied (as with a digital video signal). For that reason, it is desirable to apply this compression technique to digital video transmission; however, special care must be taken in order to implement a communication protocol utilizing Huffman coding. This paper addresses several of the issues relating to the real-time transmission of Huffman-coded digital video over a constant-rate serial channel. Topics discussed include data rate conversion (from variable to a fixed rate), efficient data buffering, channel coding, recovery from communication errors, decoder synchronization, and decoder architectures. A description of the hardware developed to execute Huffman coding and serial transmission is also included. Although this paper focuses on matters relating to Huffman-coded digital video, the techniques discussed can easily be generalized for a variety of applications which require transmission of variable-length data.

Bizon, Thomas P.↗

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A prospective approach to coastal geography from satellite

A forecasting protocol termed the "prospective approach' was used to examine probable futures relative to coastal applications of satellite data. Significant variables include the energy situation, the national economy, national Earth satellite programs, and coastal zone research, commercial activity, and regulatory activity. Alternative scenarios for the period until 1986 are presented. Possible response by state/local remote sensing centers include operational applications for users, input to geo-base information systems (GIS), development of decision-making algorithms using GIS data, and long term research programs for coastal management using merged satellite and traditional data.

Munday, J. C., Jr.↗

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Smith, James A.↗

Peru Health and Air Quality II: Leveraging Earth Observations and Health Data to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Peru's Madre de Dios region is a hotspot for dengue fever and leishmaniasis due to its tropical Amazonian climate. Though treatable, these zoonotic diseases are debilitating for under-resourced communities whose already close proximity to mosquito and sandfly vectors continues to increase via rapid urbanization and deforestation. Peru’s Ministries of Health (MINSA) and Environment (MINAM) are working to better understand the environmental factors amplifying the risk of dengue fever and leishmaniasis transmission. The first term of this project classified the land use and land cover of Madre de Dios’ 11 districts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 and identified a correlation between both diseases and urbanization. Our team expanded this analysis by creating urban-forest edge maps and incorporating climatic and topographic variables with data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). We determined these variables’ impacts on disease incidence by assessing existing literature and running regression models. Dengue fever correlated with urban-forest edge, urban area, slope, temperature, and precipitation. Leishmaniasis primarily correlated with forest-edge area and elevation, but lacking additional statistical significance prevented further work, a decision supported by the literature. Thus, the risk matrix and risk map which we scripted in R to visualize the risk of disease posed to districts alongside health post locations addresses only dengue fever. The results and products will inform MINSA and MINAM in public health interventions, resource distribution, and policy initiatives.

Jennifer Rogers↗

Solar variability indications from Nimbus 7 satellite data

The cavity pyrheliometer sensor of the Nimbus 7 Earth Radiation Experiment indicated low-level variability of the total solar irradiance. The variability appears to be inversely correlated with common solar activity indicators in an event sense. the limitations of the measuring system and available data sets are described.

Hickey, J. R.↗

Damage Tolerance Assessment of Laser Clad Repairs of Coarse Grain Ti-6Al-4V

Background: Laser cladding offers a promising approach to repairing aviation components, with the ability to restore the geometric shape and the static and fatigue strength. Objective: The damage tolerance of a coarse grain Ti-6Al-4 V material is assessed via three sets of samples: (i) baseline, (ii) laser clad repaired, and (iii) laser cladding followed by heat treatment. Method: The specimens were subjected to fatigue loading using a marker band technique, in which cracks initiated from pre-defined laser slots and the small crack growth rates were measured by quantitative fractography. Additional characterization was performed on these samples, including hardness measurements, microstructure analysis, and multimodal residual stress analyses. Results: The region of the specimen undergoing laser cladding exhibited higher hardness values and a compressive residual stress, based on the slitting method. The samples subjected to heat treatment after cladding displayed negligible differences in grain size and minimal residual stress relaxation. Conclusions: The results demonstrated significant variability, with data demonstrating that cracks in the laser clad region (exhibiting the largest compressive residual stress) grew faster than cracks in the substrate region of the sample or in the baseline cases. Finally, these counterintuitive results are rationalized with additional analyses from synchrotron-based energy dispersive X-ray diffraction and high energy X-ray diffraction, demonstrating significant spatial variability in the residual elastic strains in the millimeter-sized prior β grains within the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A matched-filter approach to radio variability and transients: searching for orphan afterglows in the VAST Pilot Survey

Radio transient searches using traditional variability metrics struggle to recover sources whose evolution time-scale is significantly longer than the survey cadence. Motivated by the recent observations of slowly evolving radio afterglows at gigahertz frequency, we present the results of a search for radio variables and transients using an alternative matched-filter approach. We designed our matched-filter to recover sources with radio light curves that have a high-significance fit to power-law and smoothly broken power-law functions; light curves following these functions are characteristic of synchrotron transients, including ‘orphan’ gamma-ray burst afterglows, which were the primary targets of our search. Applying this matched-filter approach to data from Variables and Slow Transients Pilot Survey conducted using the Australian SKA Pathfinder, we produced five candidates in our search. Subsequent Australia Telescope Compact Array observations and analysis revealed that: one is likely a synchrotron transient; one is likely a flaring active galactic nucleus, exhibiting a flat-to-steep spectral transition over 4 months; one is associated with a starburst galaxy, with the radio emission originating from either star formation or an underlying slowly evolving transient; and the remaining two are likely extrinsic variables caused by interstellar scintillation. The synchrotron transient, VAST J175036.1–181454, has a multifrequency light curve, peak spectral luminosity, and volumetric rate that is consistent with both an off-axis afterglow and an off-axis tidal disruption event; interpreted as an off-axis afterglow would imply an average inverse beaming factor $\langle f^{-1}_{\text{b}} \rangle = 860^{+1980}_{-710}$, or equivalently, an average jet opening angle of $\langle \theta _{\textrm {j}} \rangle = 3^{+4}_{-1}\,$ deg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generating synthetic occupants for use in building performance simulation

Occupant behaviour simulation frameworks can employ synthetic populations to characterize occupancy and behavioural patterns in buildings based on observed demographic data at a certain geographical location. For buildings, very few synthetic occupant populations have been generated. This paper uses a Bayesian Networks (BN) structural learning approach to synthesize populations of occupants in a multi-family housing case study. Two additional cases of office occupants and senior housing residents are considered as a cross-case comparison. Furthermore, we draw upon the extended version of drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework to guide the selection of variables and data imputation. Our results show that the BN approach is powerful in learning the structure of data sets. The synthetic data sets successfully match the joint distributions of the underlying combined data sets. Experiments on the multi-family housing particularly show better performance than the office and senior housing cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Materials Scorecards, Phase 2: Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology

This report presents updated material score cards with detailed justification of the proposed rating provided and quantifies the readiness of the advanced manufacturing of materials for nuclear applications. Based on an expanded literature review of available data, the scores in this report (Phase 2) have either been modified or remained constant as compared with Phase 1 scoring. The rating justification are provided for each scoring criteria whereas the maturity quantification of additively manufactured alloys and the knowledge gaps are discussed with reference traceability. This report focuses on the detailed justification and traceability for the adoption of additively manufactured 316SS, SS304, Alloy 800H, Graphite C/C, Alloy N, Silicon Carbide, HT9, Alloy 617, and Alloy 718. Significant variability in data and knowledge gaps exist among the identified materials. The scorecards are therefore based on published literature data, industry response to a survey, stakeholder input collected at workshops, and expert opinion. The interpretation and assessment were somewhat challenged as experimental process parameters and methodology varied and best judgment was exercised for score quantification. This assessment reflects the overall level of technical maturity for AM materials and their deployment in Gen-VI nuclear systems. These Phase 2 scorecards are likely to be revised based on additional input from stakeholders and as new research results become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Variable Sampling Mapping

The performance of an optical system (for example, a telescope) is limited by the misalignments and manufacturing imperfections of the optical elements in the system. The impact of these misalignments and imperfections can be quantified by the phase variations imparted on light traveling through the system. Phase retrieval is a methodology for determining these variations. Phase retrieval uses images taken with the optical system and using a light source of known shape and characteristics. Unlike interferometric methods, which require an optical reference for comparison, and unlike Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensors that require special optical hardware at the optical system's exit pupil, phase retrieval is an in situ, image-based method for determining the phase variations of light at the system s exit pupil. Phase retrieval can be used both as an optical metrology tool (during fabrication of optical surfaces and assembly of optical systems) and as a sensor used in active, closed-loop control of an optical system, to optimize performance. One class of phase-retrieval algorithms is the iterative transform algorithm (ITA). ITAs estimate the phase variations by iteratively enforcing known constraints in the exit pupil and at the detector, determined from modeled or measured data. The Variable Sampling Mapping (VSM) technique is a new method for enforcing these constraints in ITAs. VSM is an open framework for addressing a wide range of issues that have previously been considered detrimental to high-accuracy phase retrieval, including undersampled images, broadband illumination, images taken at or near best focus, chromatic aberrations, jitter or vibration of the optical system or detector, and dead or noisy detector pixels. The VSM is a model-to-data mapping procedure. In VSM, fully sampled electric fields at multiple wavelengths are modeled inside the phase-retrieval algorithm, and then these fields are mapped to intensities on the light detector, using the properties of the detector and optical system, for comparison with measured data. Ultimately, this model-to-data mapping procedure enables a more robust and accurate way of incorporating the exit-pupil and image detector constraints, which are fundamental to the general class of ITA phase retrieval algorithms.

Smith, Jeffrey, S.↗

The AutoBayes Program Synthesis System: System Description

AUTOBAYES is a fully automatic program synthesis system for the statistical data analysis domain. Its input is a concise description of a data analysis problem in the form of a statistical model; its output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code which can be linked dynamically into the Matlab and Octave environments. AUTOBAYES synthesizes code by a schema-guided deductive process. Schemas (i.e., code templates with associated semantic constraints) are applied to the original problem and recursively to emerging subproblems. AUTOBAYES complements this approach by symbolic computation to derive closed-form solutions whenever possible. In this paper, we concentrate on the interaction between the symbolic computations and the deductive synthesis process. A statistical model specifies for each problem variable (i.e., data or parameter) its properties and dependencies in the form of a probability distribution, A typical data analysis task is to estimate the best possible parameter values from the given observations or measurements. The following example models normal-distributed data but takes prior information (e.g., from previous experiments) on the data's mean value and variance into account.

Fischer, Bernd↗

The Relativistic Iron Line Profile in the Seyfert 1 Galaxy IC4329a

We present simultaneous ASCA and RXTE data on the bright Seyfert 1 galaxy IC4329a. The iron line is significantly broadened, but not to the extent expected from an accretion disk which extends down to the last stable orbit around a black hole. We marginally detect a narrow line component, presumably from the molecular torus, but, even including this gives a line profile from the accretion disk which is significantly narrower that that seen in MCG-6-30-15, and is much more like that seen from the low/hard state galactic black hole candidates. This is consistent with the inner disk being truncated before the last stable orbit, forming a hot flow at small radii as in the ADAF models. However. we cannot rule out the presence of an inner disk which does not contribute to the reflected spectrum. either because of extreme ionisation suppressing the characteristic atomic features of the reflected spectrum or because the X-ray source is intrinsically anisotropic, so it does not illuminate the inner disk. The source was monitored by RXTE every 2 days for 2 months, and these snapshot spectra show that there is intrinsic spectral variability. The data are good enough to disentangle the power law from the reflected continuum and we see that the power law softens as the source brightens. The lack of a corresponding increase in the observed reflected spectrum implies that either the changes in disk inner radial extent/ionization structure are small, or that the variability is actually driven by changes in the seed photons which are decoupled from the hard X-ray mechanism.

Done, C.↗

Derivation of satellite wind model functions using operational surface wind analyses - An altimeter example

One year of global surface wind products from multiple operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast/analysis systems are used as comparison data to derive an empirical wind speed model function for the Geosat altimeter. The resulting model function is nearly identical to the modified Chelton-Wentz model for wind speeds from 4.5 to 15 m/s. Highly skewed distributions at low wind speeds are consistent with specular reflections and antenna mispointing errors hypothesized by others on the basis of extremely limited data. Mesoscale variability in the wind field and synoptic scale errors in the NWP products are shown to account for about 30 percent of the observed scatter of sigma(0) at each wind speed. The remaining scatter is largest at low winds, and decreases to a nearly constant value of about 12 percent at speeds greater than 7 m/s. Model function uncertainty expressed more traditionally in units of wind speed is examined for historical model functions as well as the present NWP-based model. The historical models have significant biases at high wind speeds owing to the lack of comparison in situ data used in their construction. The present study demonstrates that modern operational NWP surface wind products are sufficiently accurate to allow development of fully empirical model functions and associated error analyses.

Freilich, Michael H.↗

Occurrences of REE and CM in volcanic ash beds associated with coals in SW Wyoming & NW Colorado

Rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals (CMs) are vital components in the nation’s economy, national security, and the further strengthening of our renewable energy capabilities and infrastructure. Recent work has revealed more insight into previously unknown modes of occurrence for REEs, particularly in coal seams and adjacent noncoal sediments, but many data gaps persist. Temporal relationships between coal beds and adjacent tonstiens, ash beds, or other partings are widely recognized but not fully understood. Variations in REE concentration and their direct or indirect association with coal beds are not predictable. This study presents findings from examining lateral and potentially stratigraphic variation of REE and CM occurrences in coals of late Cretaceous and Paleocene age. In this study we collected and examined samples of differing ages both core and coal mine exposures for qualitative x-ray fluorescence (XRF), and multi-element geochemistry. Preliminary XRF data indicates variable levels of light REEs in a core from the Yampa coalfield of Moffat County in northwest Colorado. An absence of similar enrichments in slightly older coals in the Adaville Formation of the Fold and Thrust belt in southwest Wyoming is described from XRF and ICP-MS evaluation. Previous work has shown an association with the Yampa Bed and REE enrichment in coals of the Upper Cretaceous Williams Fork Formation. While not common and widespread, this association suggests that leaching or reworking of the ash bed could lead to elevated REEs in the adjacent coal. We investigate differences between the two data occurringas geologic compositions and post-depositional histories. In-depth petrography and precise geochemistry should reveal data that at the very least will help improve some aspects of the geologic models of coal basins and the effect of an influx of non-coal sediments.

REE, CM, ash, volcanic ash, coal↗

Multimodal information Management: Evaluation of Auditory and Haptic Cues for NextGen Communication Displays

Auditory communication displays within the NextGen data link system may use multiple synthetic speech messages replacing traditional ATC and company communications. The design of an interface for selecting amongst multiple incoming messages can impact both performance (time to select, audit and release a message) and preference. Two design factors were evaluated: physical pressure-sensitive switches versus flat panel "virtual switches", and the presence or absence of auditory feedback from switch contact. Performance with stimuli using physical switches was 1.2 s faster than virtual switches (2.0 s vs. 3.2 s); auditory feedback provided a 0.54 s performance advantage (2.33 s vs. 2.87 s). There was no interaction between these variables. Preference data were highly correlated with performance.

Begault, Durand R.↗