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At least 361 records · Page 20

A generalized approximate control variate framework for multifidelity uncertainty quantification

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost models — which are typically lower fidelity with unknown statistics — are used to reduce the variance in statistical estimators relative to a MC estimator with equivalent cost. We derive the conditions under which our proposed approximate control variate framework recovers existing multifidelity variance reduction schemes as special cases. We demonstrate that existing recursive/nested strategies are suboptimal because they use the additional low-fidelity models only to efficiently estimate the unknown mean of the first low-fidelity model. As a result, they cannot achieve variance reduction beyond that of a control variate estimator that uses a single low-fidelity model with known mean. However, there often exists about an order-of-magnitude gap between the maximum achievable variance reduction using all low-fidelity models and that achieved by a single low-fidelity model with known mean. We show that our proposed approach can exploit this gap to achieve greater variance reduction by using non-recursive sampling schemes. The proposed strategy reduces the total cost of accurately estimating statistics, especially in cases where only low-fidelity simulation models are accessible for additional evaluations. Several analytic examples and an example with a hyperbolic PDE describing elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous media are used to illustrate the main features of the methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reflector Technology Development and System Design for Concentrating Solar Power Technologies

Alcoa began this program in March of 2008 with the goal of developing and validating an advanced CSP trough design to lower the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) as compared to existing glass based, space-frame trough technology. In addition to showing a pathway to a significant LCOE reduction, Alcoa also desired to create US jobs to support the emerging CSP industry. Alcoa's objective during Phase I: Concept Feasibility was to provide the DOE with a design approach that demonstrates significant overall system cost savings without sacrificing performance. Phase I consisted of two major tasks; reflector surface development and system concept development. Two specific reflective surface technologies were investigated, silver metallized lamination, and thin film deposition both applied on an aluminum substrate. Alcoa prepared samples; performed test validation internally; and provided samples to the NREL for full-spectrum reflectivity measurements. The final objective was to report reflectivity at t = 0 and the latest durability results as of the completion of Phase 1. The target criteria for reflectance and durability were as follows: (1) initial (t = 0), hemispherical reflectance >93%, (2) initial spectral reflectance >90% for 25-mrad reading and >87% for 7-mrad reading, and (3) predicted 20 year durability of less than 5% optical performance drop. While the results of the reflective development activities were promising, Alcoa was unable to down-select on a reflective technology that met the target criteria. Given the progress and potential of both silver film and thin film technologies, Alcoa continued reflector surface development activities in Phase II. The Phase I concept development activities began with acquiring baseline CSP system information from both CSP Services and the DOE. This information was used as the basis to develop conceptual designs through ideation sessions. The concepts were evaluated based on estimated cost and high-level structural performance. The target criteria for the concept development was to achieve a solar field cost savings of 25%-50% thereby meeting or exceeding the DOE solar field cost savings target of $\$$350/m 2 . After evaluating various structural design approaches, Alcoa down-selected to a monocoque, dubbed Wing Box, design that utilizes the reflective surface as a structural, load carrying member. The cost and performance potential of the Wing Box concept was developed via initial finite element analysis (FEA) and cost modeling. The structural members were sized through material utilization modeling when subjected to representative loading conditions including wind loading. Cost modeling was utilized to refine potential manufacturing techniques that could be employed to manufacture the structural members. Alcoa concluded that an aluminum intensive collector design can achieve significant cost savings without sacrificing performance. Based on the cost saving potential of this Concept Feasibility study, Alcoa recommended further validation of this CSP approach through the execution of Phase II: Design and Prototype Development. Alcoa Phase II objective was to provide the DOE with a validated CSP trough design that demonstrates significant overall system cost savings without sacrificing performance. Phase II consisted of three major tasks; Detail System Design, Prototype Build, and System Validation. Additionally, the reflector surface development that began in Phase I was continued in Phase II. After further development work, Alcoa was unable to develop a reflective technology that demonstrated significant performance or cost benefits compared to commercially available CSP reflective products. After considering other commercially available reflective surfaces, Alcoa selected Alano's MIRO-SUN product for use on the full scale prototype. Although MIRO-SUN has a lower specular reflectivity compared to other options, its durability in terms of handling, cleaning, and long-term reflectivity was deemed the most important attribute to successfully validate Alcoa's advanced trough architecture. To validate the performance of the Wing Box trough, a 6 meter aperture by 14 meter long prototype trough was built. For ease of shipping to and assembly at NREL's test facility, the prototype was fabricated in two half modules and joined along the centerline to create the Wing Box trough. The trough components were designed to achieve high precision of the reflective surface while leveraging high volume manufacturing and assembly techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗

Solar-assisted gas-energy water-heating feasibility for apartments

Studies of residential energy use, solar-energy technology for buildings, and the requirements for implementing technology in the housing industry led to a project to develop a solar water heater for apartments. A design study for a specific apartment was used to establish a solar water-heater cost model which is based on plumbing contractor bids and manufacturer estimates. The cost model was used to size the system to minimize the annualized cost of hot water. The annualized cost of solar-assisted gas-energy water heating is found to be less expensive than electric water heating but more expensive than gas water heating. The feasibility of a natural gas utility supplying the auxiliary fuel is evaluated. It is estimated that gas-utilizing companies will find it profitable to offer solar water heating as part of a total energy service option or on a lease basis when the price of new base-load supplies of natural gas reaches $2.50-$3.00 per million Btu.

Davis, E. S.↗

Manufacturing Competitiveness and Supply Chain Analyses for Hydrogen Refueling Stations

This slide deck was presented in the monthly FCTO webinar series (May 2017). The goal of this presentation was to share our latest results and remarks on the manufacturing competitiveness analysis of the hydrogen refueling stations (HRS). Manufacturing cost models were developed for major systems in the HRS such as compressors, storage tanks, chillers, heat exchangers, and dispensers. In addition to the cost models, we also discussed important remarks from our analysis for the international trade flows and global supply chain for the hydrogen refueling stations. The last part of the presentation also highlights effect of economies of scale and high production volumes on lowering the cost of the hydrogen at the pump.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Reinforcement Learning for Load-balanced Parallel Particle Tracing

We explore an online reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm to dynamically optimize parallel particle tracing performance in distributed-memory systems. Our method combines three novel components: (1) a work donation algorithm, (2) a high-order workload estimation model, and (3) a communication cost model. First, we design an RL-based work donation algorithm. Our algorithm monitors workloads of processes and creates RL agents to donate data blocks and particles from high-workload processes to low-workload processes to minimize program execution time. The agents learn the donation strategy on the fly based on reward and cost functions designed to consider processes' workload changes and data transfer costs of donation actions. Second, we propose a workload estimation model, helping RL agents estimate the workload distribution of processes in future computations. Third, we design a communication cost model that considers both block and particle data exchange costs, helping RL agents make effective decisions with minimized communication costs. We demonstrate that our algorithm adapts to different flow behaviors in large-scale fluid dynamics, ocean, and weather simulation data. Our algorithm improves parallel particle tracing performance in terms of parallel efficiency, load balance, and costs of I/O and communication for evaluations with up to 16,384 processors.

Distributed and parallel particle tracing↗

UVO to Far-IR Mirror Technology Development: Year 2 Status

UVO to Far-IR (UVO-FIR) mirror technology development project is a multiyear effort initiated in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 to mature the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of critical technologies required to enable ultra-stable telescope of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) mission. 2023/24 accomplishments include: continued investigations into gravity sag by comparing rotation test vs flip test, quantifying gravity sag as a function of temperature and designing mount for mirror whose G-sag with elevation angle is only coma. Significant progress in developing a methodology for specify optical surface microstructure, contamination cleanliness level and allowable micrometeoroid impacts. Support of HWO. And, a parametric cost model for x-ray telescopes and a parametric volume cost model for normal incidence telescopes.

H. Philip Stahl↗

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Cost Benefits of U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Plus Energy Storage Systems

Utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) system market growth has been rapid for several years. Today, with the cost reductions of energy storage technologies, the application of combing PV and energy storage has become feasible and beneficial, especially for the areas that only have PV standalone systems and need to shift the peak load to meet the evening electricity demand. Overall, the utility-scale PV plus energy storage systems can provide dispatchable energy and reliable capacity. This study details cost factors, including labor costs, material costs, overhead, and permitting costs using a systemlevel bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to benchmark PV plus storage installation system cost and identify cost difference for AC and DC coupled systems and duration variation. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of co-locating PV system with energy storage system in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of PV plus storage configuration and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. energy storage policymaking.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Marmot

Marmot is a data formatting and visualization tool for production cost modelling results. It provides an efficient way to view PLEXOS production cost modeling results quickly, while also creating publication ready figures and data tables.

Levie, Daniel↗

System Resilience Benefits of Dual-Fuel Capable Generators

The growing dependency on natural gas (NG) for power generation raises challenges for ensuring the resilience of power systems during extreme cold weather. Dual-fuel capable generators that can switch from burning NG to distillate fuel oil during an NG shortage over one way to alleviate these challenges. In this study, the impacts of gas unavailability on the IEEE 73-bus reliability test system (RTS) with 2019 updated generation mixture are explored. An extension to the standard production cost model formulation of unit commitment and economic dispatch is proposed to allow the representation of dual-fuel capable generators that can switch fuels between NG and distillate oil with a specified oil tank capacity and tank refueling capability. The operation of the system under gas unavailability with 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of combined cycle and combustion turbine generators as dual-fuel capable with a one-day supply of fuel oil are simulated using PLEXOS, a production cost model. The dual-fuel generator performance, unserved energy, and system costs are fully assessed.

dual-fuel capable generator↗

Low-Cost, High-Performance Carbon Fiber for Compressed Natural Gas Storage Tanks (Final Technical Report – Down Select Report)

The aim of this project is to reduce the cost of Type IV, carbon fiber (CF) composite overwrap compressed gas storage tanks by reducing the cost of CF and CF composites. The project team worked to reduce the cost of CF by exploring and testing opportunities for a low-cost alternative precursor material for CF production to supplant market-dominant and costly polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Concurrently, the team aimed to reduce the cost of the tanks at the composite level by improving the interfacial adhesion between the fibers and the matrix resin through the incorporation of low-cost nanoparticles recycled from waste materials, which would reduce the volume of costly CF required to achieve the same tank performance. At the end of the first year, the project team selected mesophase pitch as the primary precursor candidate from a field of materials based on the superior mechanical performance and cost-saving potential. During the second year, the team produced CFs derived from mesophase pitch achieving an average tensile strength of 365.6 ksi and average tensile modulus of 40.74 Msi. Facility availability for spinning and converting these fibers at greater scale has hindered scale-up demonstration, but the team has identified opportunities to conduct this work in the near term. Cost modeling shows that these mesophase pitch-derived CFs can be up to 40% less expensive than PAN-derived CFs due to the lower cost of the feedstock material, higher throughput, greater conversion yield, and lower cost spinning method and compared to PAN. Additionally, the team has demonstrated at lab-scale that nanoparticle coating CFs can significantly increase the interfacial shear strength and load transfer efficiency of CFs in a matrix. Single filament pull-out testing showed a 27% average increase in max interfacial shear strength due to this coating. A continuous method of applying these coatings to a tow of CF has been developed for scale-up. 26 m tows of coated CFs were produced using this system and formed into composite ring samples for ASTM ring burst testing. Issues with the testing protocol have limited assessment of these results. A prototype Type IV tank was designed to meet ANSI HGV2 standards, and the design criteria set out by DOE, using the CF properties developed by the team paired with a proprietary resin matrix, a polyamide liner, and aluminum end bosses. The tank weighs 153.1 kg and with a total capacity of 5.8 kg H2 (5.6 kg usable), which yields a gravimetric capacity of 1.17 kWh/kg. Cost modeling predicts that the tank will have a projected cost of $15.73/kWh. Tank performance modeling does not include considerations for fiber-matrix load transfer efficiency improvements offered by nanoparticle coating method.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Development of a solar-powered residential air conditioner: Economic analysis

The results of investigations aimed at the development of cost models to be used in the economic assessment of Rankine-powered air conditioning systems for residential application are summarized. The rationale used in the development of the cost model was to: (1) collect cost data on complete systems and on the major equipment used in these systems; (2) reduce these data and establish relationships between cost and other engineering parameters such as weight, size, power level, etc; and (3) derive simple correlations from which cost-to-the-user can be calculated from performance requirements. The equipment considered in the survey included heat exchangers, fans, motors, and turbocompressors. This kind of hardware represents more than 2/3 of the total cost of conventional air conditioners.

Source record↗

A multi-scale calibration approach for process-oriented aggregated building energy demand models

Long-term energy planning relies largely on projections of future energy demand and hourly load profiles. Aggregate building models are increasingly being utilized to characterize the sensitivity of current and future building stocks to changes in climate, population, and building technology on city-to-regional-to-national scales. Due to challenges in the availability of data, those analyses have been limited to projection of energy demand at a single scale, usually state or country, while long-term planning power system models and production cost models might operate at different spatial scales such as energy regions which are focused on ensuring adequate generation infrastructure. In this work, we propose and evaluate a novel method to calibrate an aggregate building energy demand model (PNNL’s BEND model) against the best available data at the spatial scale of balancing authorities. This approach extends previous work on aggregated building energy demand by facilitating analysis of building energy demand across scales, in particular policy and operational decision-making scales. We show that the bias-corrected model estimates building electric loads reasonably well compared with estimates from a statistical model, but has the additional feature of flexibility across spatial scales. While the calibration approach is presently U.S.-centric and associated with U.S. energy regions, it can be extrapolated to other worldwide regions with similar scale challenges between policy and operational implementation decision making. We discuss the significant challenges involved in formulating and calibrating a complex physical model based on simulations of roughly 100,000 individual buildings against available aggregate regional electric load data and highlight areas for potential future work and improved data collection.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Platform Agnostic Streaming Data Application Performance Models

The mapping of computational needs onto execution resources is, by and large, a manual task, and users are frequently guided simply by intuition and past experiences. We present a queueing theory based performance model for streaming data applications that takes steps towards a better understanding of resource mapping decisions, thereby assisting application developers to make good mapping choices. The performance model (and associated cost model) are agnostic to the specific properties of the compute resource and application, simply characterizing them by their achievable data throughput. We illustrate the model with a pair of applications, one chosen from the field of computational biology and the second is a classic machine learning problem.

Faber, Clayton↗

Synthesis and Characterization of Mixed-Conducting Corrosion Resistant Oxide Supports

An extensive search and evaluation of electrochemically stable catalyst supports (including metal oxides like RuO2-SiO2, RuO2-TiO2, and ITO was perfomed during the 4 years of the project. The suports were also catalyzed by deposition of Pt and tested for its performance and electrochemical stability in RDE and fuel cell experiments. For testing the electrochemical stability and fuel cell performance of the catalysts and supports, we have employed the protocols in use at the Department of Energy and Nissan Technological Center North America (NTCNA). The use of such procedures allows a precise and reproducible estimation of the performance and stability of the materials and permits comparisons among laboratories and DOE funded projects. RuO2-SiO2 catalyst supports showed no loss in surface area during start-stop stability tests that were performed by cycling the electrode potential between 0 V to 1.8 V for 1000 cycles. Catalyzed support (40% Pt/RuO2-SiO2; 1:1 mole ratio) were tested in a PEFC, resulting in a current density of 750 mA/cm2 at 0.6 Volts, and a maximum power density of 570 mW/cm2. Measurements were conducted at 80 ºC with 75% relative humidity of the inlet gases (H2/O2); Pt loadings were 0.4 mg/cm2 at the cathode and 0.2 mg/cm2 at the anode. Start-stop stability tests for support and catalyzed support performed in RDE and PEFC set-ups have confirmed RuO2-TiO2 support stability. The beginning of life performance was exactly equal to end of life performance (in an MEA that has been subjected to severe start-stop cycling for 10,000 start/stop cycles between 1 V to 1.5 V). This result was in sharp contrast to baseline Pt/C catalyst that showed significant performance deterioration after accelerated stability tests. The Pt/TRO showed minimal loss in performance upon exposure to start-stop cycles. The loss in cell voltage at 1 A/cm2 at 100% RH was almost 700 mV for Pt/C whereas it was only ca. 15 mV for Pt/TRO. 40% RH data (of inlet gases) revealed a similar trend in terms of stability – exceptional stability for Pt/TRO as opposed to very poor stability for Pt/HSAC. These observations were attributed to the much higher stability of the TRO support compared to Carbon. The carbon dioxide concentration in the cathode exit stream during the accelerated degradation test with Pt/TRO (start-stop protocol) was extremely low (between 3 to 10 ppm of CO2). In contrast, the CO2 emission levels from a conventional Pt/C catalyst were found to be approx. 200 ppm. This observation was a clear indicator that the main source of carbon being oxidized to carbon dioxide in an MEA was the carbon catalyst support, and not the gas diffusion layer or the graphite flow fields. Indium tin oxide (ITO) was also evaluated as a catalyst support for PEFCs. Pt/ITO was very stable under start-up/shutdown accelerated degradation protocol (RDE tests in perchloric acid). The ECSA change was less than 4% over 10,000 cycles. The load cycling accelerated protocol (from 0.6 to 0.95 V vs. RHE) resulted in a loss of approximately 34% of the initial ECSA after 10,000 cycles. However, fuel cell testing resulted in a very low performing catalyst. XPS spectroscopy was employed to investigate the changes in the catalysts occuring during fuel cell operation. It was observed a shift of In 3d5/2 and In 3d3/2 peaks towards higher binding energies. This can be explained by the formation of hydroxides or oxy-hydroxides in the surface of the catalyst. O1s spectrum for Pt/ITO catalyst after being operated in the fuel cell, also confirmed the formation of significant amounts of surface hydroxides (12 to 16%). The presence of surface hydroxides in the catalyst increased the electrode resistivity affecting fuel cell performance. NTCNA performed a detailed analysis of transport phenomena (reactants and products to/from the Pt active sites) in both commercial catalyst and Pt/RTO (in order to have a better understanding at the basic level). The proton resistance (Rionomer) in Pt/C and Pt/RTO cathode catalyst layers were 150 and 12 mΩ-cm2, respectively. Pt/RTO catalyst layer has about an order or magnitude lower proton transfer resistance than Pt/C catalyst layer. Since the ionomer/support ratio that was used in formulating the ink for both catalysts was the same (0.9), it is expected that the volumetric coverage of ionomer of both catalysts will be significantly different due to the disparity in the surface areas (Pt/C had ~ 800 m2/g, while Pt/RTO had ~ 50 m2/g). The differences in the ionomer volumetric coverage and the ionomer film thickness may explain the significantly higher proton conductivity in the Pt/RTO catalyst layer when compared to Pt/HSAC. It is therefore very important to optimize the ionomer loadings when synthesizing new catalyst supports (and never rely on values for carbon-based commercial catalysts). Finally, NTCNA has elaborated a cost model for non-carbon support materials considering their durability benefits. Material costs for production of Pt/ RuO2-TiO2 electrodes were compared to Pt/C. RuO2-TiO2 support was more expensive than carbon but the total material cost was still dominated by platinum cost. Though ruthenium is considered a precious metal, its cost is far less than platinum. It should also be noted that ruthenium only makes up 38% of the mass of the support, while the rest is inexpensive TiO2. After considering the durability advantages of Pt/RTO, cost model showed that even with almost double the Pt loading (0.35 vs 0.18 mgPt/cm2), Pt/RTO ($22.7/kWnet) is only slightly more expensive than Pt/C ($21.9/kWnet).

08 HYDROGEN↗