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DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass have made the detection and attribution of human-forced snow losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable—even absent their clear detection in individual snow products—and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sanitary Waste Landfill Effects on an Invasive Wild Pig Population

Being opportunistic omnivores, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) readily feed on edible garbage. Given the presence of substantial volumes of edible food waste, large multi-county and regional municipal sanitary waste landfills constitute attractive forage resources for pigs, providing a year-round anthropogenic source of potentially high-quality forage. Our objective was to assess the effects that a large regional landfill has on the local pigs foraging in that facility's waste disposal cells. The landfill, located on the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina, USA, became operational in 1998 and pigs began foraging there in 2001. By 2009 >100 pigs/night were observed foraging in the landfill, suggesting landfill establishment may have important consequences for population dynamics, public safety, and disease transmission. We evaluated changes in body mass, fetal litter size, numbers of pigs removed, and wild pig-vehicle collisions (WPVCs) before (1980–2000) and after (2001–2019) pigs began foraging in the landfill on SRS. Body mass during the after period increased to a greater extent for pigs in the vicinity of the landfill compared to pigs on the rest of SRS. Fetal litter size increased for pigs in the vicinity of the landfill, whereas it remained unchanged on the rest of SRS. Our density surrogate (number of pigs harvested) increased around the landfill during the after period by 2.9 times, whereas on the rest of the site it only increased by 53%. No WPVCs occurred adjacent to the landfill before 2001, but WPVCs increased along the 2 major roads bordering the landfill after 2001. Effects of sanitary waste landfills on wild pig populations scavenging there can present unique challenges to population management, control, public safety, and disease transmission. Potential approaches to address these challenges could be exclusion fencing to prevent access to the landfill's waste disposal cells or enhanced placement of waste cell covers to reduce access.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Digitalization Guiding Principles and Method for Nuclear Industry Work Processes

The commercial U.S. light-water reactor fleet has been operating at historical efficiency, reliability, and safety over the last decade. Nuclear power has the highest capacity factor of any other power generation technology while also serving as the largest baseload source for carbon-free energy. Despite this remarkable achievement, continued operations for many plants are threatened due to fierce electricity market competition and rising operations and maintenance costs of which continued maintenance of obsolete analog equipment is a contributor. The digital age and associated technologies are where the future lies in process control, and nuclear has yet to take full advantage of the capabilities offered therein. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program (LWRS) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), sponsored by the Department of Energy, has a mission to help the light-water reactor fleet manage its foundational capabilities to continue providing safe and reliable carbon-free power. LWRS helps support that mission by providing scientific, technology-based solutions for advanced concepts of operations with a more viable business model that will allow the fleet to continue to operate at peak levels through extended plant operation. The LWRS Digitalization Project at INL seeks to leverage digital technologies to synthesize and transform work processes. We provide a state-of-the-art analysis of digitalized work processes in nuclear power and investigate ways in which researchers at INL and the nuclear industry can work together to identify what data to access, how to access it, what to do with the data, and most importantly, how to use the insights for decision-making across all levels within the business. Borne from these considerations, we present four guiding principles for digitalization: develop a coherent digitalization plan, apply human factors engineering, establish data governance, and anticipate unintended consequences. Together, these principles form a method that plants can use to effectively to digitalize nuclear industry work processes. Our guiding principles are informed by multiple knowledge sources. First, we document activities from the Work Digitalization Initiative, which was conceived as a means for nuclear organizations to help define and standardize the industry’s approach to digitalizing work. Second, we detail primary research conducted with industry professionals regarding drivers and barriers to digitalization adoption. We present survey results that demonstrate what the industry hopes to get out of digitalization and the ways that INL can continue to support the industry’s digital transformation. Third, we present a digitalization use case with industry partners NextAxiom Technology and Xcel Energy. The project objective was to transform the current condition report work process from paper to digital, incorporating digitalized principles. We report the development of the application and lessons learned. The accomplishments achieved by this research and development serve to identify critical needs for plant guidance in support of digitalization implementation and contribute to the knowledge and strategies available for utilities considering or undertaking digitalization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Energy Systems Program Management Plan

In 2012, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) initiated the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technology Program, which includes the Crosscutting Technology Development (CTD) portfolio of subprograms, to conduct research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) to support existing, new and advanced reactor designs and fuel cycle technologies. This program plan describes the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program, an element of the CTD portfolio since 2016 that seeks to improve the economic competitiveness, efficiency and environmental performance of nuclear energy systems by expanding their potential application space beyond electricity and optimizing their utilization in the context of the larger U.S. electric and non-electric energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Acidification in the U.S. Southeast: Causes, Potential Consequences and the Role of the Southeast Ocean and Coastal Acidification Network

Coastal acidification in southeastern U.S. estuaries and coastal waters is influenced by biological activity, run-off from the land, and increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Acidification can negatively impact coastal resources such as shellfish, finfish, and coral reefs, and the communities that rely on them. Organismal responses for species located in the U.S. Southeast document large negative impacts of acidification, especially in larval stages. For example, the toxicity of pesticides increases under acidified conditions and the combination of acidification and low oxygen has profoundly negative influences on genes regulating oxygen consumption. In corals, the rate of calcification decreases with acidification and processes such as wound recovery, reproduction, and recruitment are negatively impacted. Minimizing the changes in global ocean chemistry will ultimately depend on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, but adaptation to these changes and mitigation of the local stressors that exacerbate global acidification can be addressed locally. The evolution of our knowledge of acidification, from basic understanding of the problem to the emergence of applied research and monitoring, has been facilitated by the development of regional Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs) across the United States. This synthesis is a product of the Southeast Coastal and Ocean Acidification Network (SOCAN). SOCAN was established to better understand acidification in the coastal waters of the U.S. Southeast and to foster communication among scientists, resource managers, businesses, and governments in the region. Here we review acidification issues in the U.S. Southeast, including the regional mechanisms of acidification and their potential impacts on biological resources and coastal communities. We recommend research and monitoring priorities and discuss the role SOCAN has in advancing acidification research and mitigation of and adaptation to these changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Growth–Mortality Coordination Differs Among Xerophytic Versus Mesophytic Tree Species During Severe Drought

ABSTRACT Forest composition is changing, yet the consequences for terrestrial carbon cycling are unclear. In the eastern United States, water‐demanding “mesophytic” tree species are replacing “xerophytic” oaks (Quercusspp.) and hickories (Caryaspp.), raising concerns that forest productivity will become increasingly sensitive to more frequent and severe drought conditions predicted for the region. However, we have a limited understanding of the extent to which the mortality risk of xerophytes versus mesophytes is coordinated with their growth sensitivity during drought. Here, we evaluated growth and mortality dynamics for 20 abundant eastern United States tree species following a severe drought in the summer of 2012. We synthesized data from ~4500 forest inventory plots and used an approach that quantified relative drought responses between co‐located trees to minimize impacts from environmental heterogeneity. We found that mesophytes were just as likely to perish as co‐occurring xerophytes but were more sensitive to drought in terms of diminished growth. These findings suggest that xerophytic decline is likely to lead to reduced carbon uptake during drought and that management efforts to conserve oak‐hickory stands will be decisive to sustain the carbon mitigation potential of these forests. However, we also found that growth‐mortality relationships differed between functional groups. Among xerophytes, growth and survival during drought were decoupled. Among mesophytes, there was a high degree of coordination, where species that experienced greater mortality also experienced greater growth reductions. Therefore, mesophytes with high growth sensitivity to water deficits are likely to be the most vulnerable to drought‐driven die‐off events moving forward.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Summary Report for the NEPA Impact Analysis. Revision 1

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located in southeastern New Mexico, has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. Containment of TRU waste at the WIPP facility is derived from standards set forth in Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 191. The DOE assesses compliance with the containment standards according to the Certification Criteria in Title 40 CFR Part 194 by means of Performance Assessment (PA) calculations performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability of radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. The DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) has initiated a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) action for a proposal to excavate and use additional transuranic (TRU) waste disposal panels at the WIPP facility. This report documents an analysis undertaken as part of an effort to evaluate the potential environmental consequences of the proposed action. Although not explicitly required for a NEPA analysis, evaluations of a dose indicator to hypothetical members of the public after final facility closure are presented in this report. The analysis is carried out in two stages: first, Performance Assessment (PA) calculations quantify the potential releases to the accessible environment over a 10,000-year post-closure period. Second, dose was evaluated for three hypothetical exposure pathways using the conservative radionuclide concentrations assumed to be released to the accessible environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.6 User's Manual

Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) is a three-dimensional solid mechanics code with a versatile element library, nonlinear material models, large deformation capabilities, and contact. It is built on the SIERRA Framework. SIERRA provides a data management framework in a parallel computing environment that allows the addition of capabilities in a modular fashion. Contact capabilities are parallel and scalable. This document provides information about the functionality in Sierra/SM and the command structure required to access this functionality in a user input file. This document is divided into chapters based primarily on functionality. For example, the command structure related to the use of various element types is grouped in one chapter; descriptions of material models are grouped in another chapter. Sierra/SM provides both explicit transient dynamics and implicit quasistatics and dynamics capabilities. Both the explicit and implicit modules are highly scalable in a parallel computing environment. In the past, the explicit and implicit capabilities were provided by two separate codes, known as Presto and Adagio, respectively. These capabilities have been consolidated into a single code. The executable is named Adagio, but it provides the full suite of solid mechanics capabilities, for both implicit and explicit. The Presto executable has been disabled as a consequence of this consolidation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

End State: Vision for Future Land Use at Hanford

An end state vision is influenced by practical constraints associated with technology limitations, resource availability, costs, timing, and unintended consequences of remedial actions, and a site’s next intended use. Therefore, subsurface environmental remediation goals often need to be balanced against the risks and costs of contaminant removal versus leaving contamination in place. For example, in regions where contaminant concentrations are high but immobile, the intended site use should be evaluated in conjunction with the risk of re-mobilization with an aggressive remedy. By contrast, the technological challenges, cost, and time to reach remedial objectives of cleaning up low levels of contamination distributed over large areas in the subsurface may require different considerations for a site’s next intended use.

environmental remediation, environmental managemen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Idaho National Laboratory’s FY 22 Greenhouse Gas Report

A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a systematic approach to account for the production and release of certain gases generated by an institution from various emission sources. The gases of interest are those that climate science has identified as related to anthropogenic global climate change. This document presents an inventory of GHGs generated during fiscal year (FY) 2022 by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored entity located in southeastern Idaho. In recent years, concern has grown about the environmental impact of GHGs. This, together with a desire to decrease harmful environmental impacts, would be enough to encourage the calculation of an inventory of the total GHGs generated at INL. Additionally, INL has a desire to see how its emissions compare with similar institutions, including other DOE national laboratories. Executive Order 14057 requires that federal agencies and institutions track and report GHG emissions where required. INL’s GHG inventory was calculated according to methodologies identified in federal GHG guidance documents using operational control boundaries. It measures emissions generated in three scopes: (1) INL emissions produced directly by stationary or mobile combustion and by fugitive emissions, (2) the share of emissions generated by entities from which INL purchased electrical power, and (3) indirect or shared emissions generated by outsourced activities that benefit INL (occurring outside INL’s organizational boundaries, but are a consequence of INL’s activities). This inventory found that INL generated 75,572.42 metric tons (MT) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions during FY 2022. The following conclusions were made from looking at the results of the individual contributors to INL’s FY 2022 GHG inventory: • Electricity (including the associated transmission and distribution losses) is the largest contributor to INL’s GHG inventory, with over 50% of the CO2e emissions. • Other sources with high emissions were mobile combustion (fleet fuels), employee commuting, stationary combustion (facility fuels), and waste disposal (fugitive emissions from the onsite landfill). • Sources with low emissions were waste disposal (contracted disposal), fugitive emissions from refrigerants, wastewater treatment (onsite and contracted), and business ground travel (in personal and rental vehicles). This report details the methods behind quantifying INL’s GHG inventory and discusses lessons learned on better practices by which information important to tracking GHGs can be tracked and recorded. It is important to note that because this report differentiates between those portions of INL that are managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) and those managed by other contractors, it includes only INL’s activities overseen by BEA. It is assumed that other contractors will provide similar reporting for those activities they manage, where appropriate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database--Thermophysical, Version 3.1 (MSTDB-TP v.3.1)

This report presents the current status of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical (MSTDB-TP). Information regarding version 3.1 is provided herein, which contains 820 individual salt entries (data from 180+ independent studies); the thermophysical properties contained in the database include density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity. The major updates to the database include a significant expansion of pseudobinary and higher-order chloride salt mixtures, many of which bearing actinides, and an incorporation of more recent literature data (i.e., that within the past 5 years). Also, modifications have been made to the pure compound data in the database as a consequence of an external quality assessment of duplicate datasets. The user-facing API for the MSTDB-TP, Saline, has been updated to include viscosity estimation capabilities based on the Redlich–Kister formalism; this is an advancement with respect to the existing density estimation capabilities. The graphical user interface was also updated to include a density estimation capability, backed by Saline. Finally, additional preliminary efforts to include surface tension into the database, as well as an investigation on formalisms that would be appropriate for thermal conductivity estimation, are reported herein.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Scale-Derived Ages in Wild Juvenile and Adult Steelhead Using Parental-Based Tagging

Abstract Accurate age information is a critical component in fisheries monitoring, management, and research. The ability to assign accurate ages to fish by using nonlethal structures is vital in calculating cohort productivity for fish species with low abundances and variable life histories. A common nonlethal method to assign ages is by interpretation of patterns in scales. Validation of ages is not easily obtained for free-ranging fishes; however, the development of genetic “tags” has expanded age validation opportunities. In this study, we used parental-based genetic tagging to validate ages determined from scales collected from juvenile and adult steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in two streams within the Snake River basin. Juvenile scale ages were in agreement with 93% of the known ages. Adult scale ages were in agreement with 89% of the known ages. Although overall bias in juvenile ages was very low, we saw a slight positive bias in younger fish (young of the year and age 1) and a small negative bias in older juveniles (ages 2–4). A small negative bias in ages of adults was a consequence of errors in freshwater age. The errors observed did not significantly bias age compositions because the 90% confidence intervals about the age proportions based on scales contained the known proportions; therefore, scale analysis is an acceptable method for assigning ages to Snake River steelhead. We discuss the value of validated known-age scales as a reference collection, and as an illustrative use, we constructed a circulus count guide to aid technicians in identifying missing annuli and distinguishing true from false annuli. To demonstrate the use of the circulus guidelines, we reanalyzed samples with age discrepancies, applying the circulus count data and the known age to identify mistakes.

Reinhardt, Leslie↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the Language of Reliability: A System Engineer Perspective

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Status of the Characterization of DEs from the Full Circumference Examination of the Inner Container Closure Weld Region (FY2020)

One of the main focus areas of the 3013 Surveillance Program is a thorough evaluation of the inner container closure weld region (ICCWR) opened for destructive examination (DE). As part of the protocol to investigate the corrosion in the ICCWR a laser confocal microscope (LCM) is used to perform close visual examination of the surface and measurements of corrosion features on the surface. DE containers from FY13 through FY16 were screened with three candidates selected for full circumference evaluation (FCE) according to the ICCWR examination protocol, During the FCE, FY16 DE05 and FY15 DE07 showed suspect major corrosion events, FY16 DE05 Section C2 shows two crack-like features, identified as Denebola and Draco. Both features are located at the boundary of Zone 2 and Zone 3. Consequently, Section C2 of FY16 DE05 was selected for examination by serial metallography at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). For FY15 DE07 the suspect corrosion events were observed on Sections Cl and C2. Section Cl shows one crack-like feature, identified as Acrux. Section C2 shows three crack-like features, identified as Bellatrix, Cursa Minor and Cursa Major. Unlike Acrux and Bellatrix, which are located at the boundary of Zone 2 and Zone 3, Cursa Minor and Cursa Major are located in Zone 2. Sections Cl and C2 of FY15 DE07 were sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANE) for characterization by X-Ray Tomography (XRT).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Idaho National Laboratory’s FY 2021 Greenhouse Gas Report

A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a systematic approach to account for the production and release of certain gases generated by an institution from various emission sources. The gases of interest are those that climate science has identified as related to anthropogenic global climate change. This document presents an inventory of GHGs generated during Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored entity located in southeastern Idaho. In recent years, concern has grown about the environmental impact of GHGs. This, together with a desire to decrease harmful environmental impacts, would be enough to encourage the calculation of an inventory of the total GHGs generated at INL. Additionally, INL has a desire to see how its emissions compare with similar institutions, including other DOE national laboratories. Executive Order 13834 requires that federal agencies and institutions track and report GHG emissions where required. INL’s GHG inventory was calculated according to methodologies identified in federal GHG guidance documents using operational control boundaries. It measures emissions generated in three scopes: (1) INL emissions produced directly by stationary or mobile combustion and by fugitive emissions, (2) the share of emissions generated by entities from which INL purchased electrical power, and (3) indirect or shared emissions generated by outsourced activities that benefit INL (occurring outside INL’s organizational boundaries but are a consequence of INL’s activities). This inventory found that INL generated 81,185.05 metric tons (MT) of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions during FY 2021. The following conclusions were made from looking at the results of the individual contributors to INL’s FY 2021 GHG inventory: Electricity (including the associated transmission and distribution losses) is the largest contributor to INL’s GHG inventory, with over 50% of the CO 2 e emissions; Other sources with high emissions were mobile combustion (fleet fuels), employee commuting, stationary combustion (facility fuels), and waste disposal (fugitive emissions from the onsite landfill); Sources with low emissions were waste disposal (contracted disposal), fugitive emissions from refrigerants, wastewater treatment (onsite and contracted), and business ground travel (in personal and rental vehicles). This report details the methods behind quantifying INL’s GHG inventory and discusses lessons learned on better practices by which information important to tracking GHGs can be tracked and recorded. It is important to note that because this report differentiates between those portions of INL that are managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) and those managed by other contractors, it includes only INL’s activities overseen by BEA. It is assumed that other contractors will provide similar reporting for those activities they manage, where appropriate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of DPC Fillers on FEPs Relevant to Disposal of SNF

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is investigating the use of different materials that could be used to fill the void space inside a dual-purpose canister (DPC) loaded with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) just before it is emplaced in a deep geologic repository. The purpose of adding filler material is to maintain subcritical conditions in the repository during the postclosure period, which can span up to 1,000,000 years. Several types of materials have been proposed, including metals, cements, particulates, and glass. Part of this investigation addresses how the presence of filler material inside a DPC will affect the performance of the repository with respect to the repository features; the consequences of events that may occur; and the multiple thermal, hydrologic, chemical, and mechanical processes that may occur in a deep geologic repository over long timescales. This report describes some of the filler materials that have been proposed and studied; identifies 11 features, 6 events, and 25 processes that may be affected by the presence of filler materials; and discusses the effects that may require consideration for each feature, event, or process. The results of this study can be used to direct appropriate research and to develop suitable models if the DOE decides to use fillers to maintain subcritical conditions in DPCs used to dispose of SNF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector

Abstract Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Idaho National Laboratory’s FY 2020 Greenhouse Gas Report

A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a systematic approach to account for the production and release of certain gases generated by an institution from various emission sources. The gases of interest are those that climate science has identified as related to anthropogenic global climate change. This document presents an inventory of GHGs generated during fiscal year (FY) 2020 by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored entity located in southeastern Idaho. In recent years, concern has grown about the environmental impact of GHGs. This, together with a desire to decrease harmful environmental impacts, would be enough to encourage the calculation of an inventory of the total GHGs generated at INL. Additionally, INL has a desire to see how its emissions compare with similar institutions, including other DOE national laboratories. Executive Order 13834 requires that federal agencies and institutions track and report GHG emissions where required. INL’s GHG inventory was calculated according to methodologies identified in federal GHG Guidance documents using operational control boundaries. It measures emissions generated in three scopes: (1) INL emissions produced directly by stationary or mobile combustion and by fugitive emissions, (2) the share of emissions generated by entities from which INL purchased electrical power, and (3) indirect or shared emissions generated by outsourced activities that benefit INL (occurring outside INL’s organizational boundaries, but are a consequence of INL’s activities). This inventory found that INL generated 76,494.12 metric tons (MT) of CO2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions during FY 2020. The following conclusions were made from looking at the results of the individual contributors to INL’s FY 2020 GHG inventory: (1) Electricity (including the associated transmission and distribution losses) is the largest contributor to INL’s GHG inventory, with over 50% of the CO 2 e emissions; (2) Other sources with high emissions were employee commuting, mobile combustion (fleet fuels), stationary combustion (facility fuels), and waste disposal (fugitive emissions from the onsite landfill); and (3) Sources with low emissions were waste disposal (contracted disposal), fugitive emissions from refrigerants, wastewater treatment (onsite and contracted), and business ground travel (in personal and rental vehicles). This report details the methods behind quantifying INL’s GHG inventory and discusses lessons learned on better practices by which information important to tracking GHGs can be tracked and recorded. It is important to note that because this report differentiates between those portions of INL that are managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) and those managed by other contractors, it includes only INL’s activities overseen by BEA. It is assumed that other contractors will provide similar reporting for those activities they manage, where appropriate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗