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At least 361 records · Page 20

Effects of Data Quality on the Characterization of Aerosol Properties from Multiple Sensors

Cross-comparison of aerosol properties between ground-based and spaceborne measurements is an important validation technique that helps to investigate the uncertainties of aerosol products acquired using spaceborne sensors. However, it has been shown that even minor differences in the cross-characterization procedure may significantly impact the results of such validation. Of particular consideration is the quality assurance I quality control (QA/QC) information - an auxiliary data indicating a "confidence" level (e.g., Bad, Fair, Good, Excellent, etc.) conferred by the retrieval algorithms on the produced data. Depending on the treatment of available QA/QC information, a cross-characterization procedure has the potential of filtering out invalid data points, such as uncertain or erroneous retrievals, which tend to reduce the credibility of such comparisons. However, under certain circumstances, even high QA/QC values may not fully guarantee the quality of the data. For example, retrievals in proximity of a cloud might be particularly perplexing for an aerosol retrieval algorithm, resulting in an invalid data that, nonetheless, could be assigned a high QA/QC confidence. In this presentation, we will study the effects of several QA/QC parameters on cross-characterization of aerosol properties between the data acquired by multiple spaceborne sensors. We will utilize the Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) that provides a consistent platform for multi-sensor comparison, including collocation with measurements acquired by the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), The multi-sensor spaceborne data analyzed include those acquired by the Terra-MODIS, Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, and CalipsoCALIOP satellite instruments.

Petrenko, Maksym↗

Getting around Antarctica: New High-Resolution Mappings of the Grounded and Freely-Floating Boundaries of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Created for the International Polar Year

Two ice-dynamic transitions of the Antarctic ice sheet - the boundary of grounded ice features and the freely-floating boundary - are mapped at 15-m resolution by participants of the International Polar Year project ASAID using customized software combining Landsat-7 imagery and ICESat/GLAS laser altimetry. The grounded ice boundary is 53 610 km long; 74% abuts to floating ice shelves or outlet glaciers, 19% is adjacent to open or sea-ice covered ocean, and 7% of the boundary ice terminates on land. The freely-floating boundary, called here the hydrostatic line, is the most landward position on ice shelves that expresses the full amplitude of oscillating ocean tides. It extends 27 521 km and is discontinuous. Positional (one-sigma) accuracies of the grounded ice boundary vary an order of magnitude ranging from +/- 52m for the land and open-ocean terminating segments to +/- 502m for the outlet glaciers. The hydrostatic line is less well positioned with errors over 2 km. Elevations along each line are selected from 6 candidate digital elevation models based on their agreement with ICESat elevation values and surface shape inferred from the Landsat imagery. Elevations along the hydrostatic line are converted to ice thicknesses by applying a firn-correction factor and a flotation criterion. BEDMAP-compiled data and other airborne data are compared to the ASAID elevations and ice thicknesses to arrive at quantitative (one-sigma) uncertainties of surface elevations of +/-3.6, +/-9.6, +/-11.4, +/-30 and +/-100m for five ASAID-assigned confidence levels. Over one-half of the surface elevations along the grounded ice boundary and over one-third of the hydrostatic line elevations are ranked in the highest two confidence categories. A comparison between ASAID-calculated ice shelf thicknesses and BEDMAP-compiled data indicate a thin-ice bias of 41.2+/-71.3m for the ASAID ice thicknesses. The relationship between the seaward offset of the hydrostatic line from the grounded ice boundary only weakly matches a prediction based on beam theory. The mapped products along with the customized software to generate them and a variety of intermediate products are available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Bindschadler, R.↗

Hypersonic Boundary Layer Measurements with Variable Blowing Rates Using Molecular Tagging Velocimetry

Measurements of mean and instantaneous streamwise velocity profiles in a hypersonic boundary layer with variable rates of mass injection (blowing) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were obtained over a 10-degree half-angle wedge model. The NO2 was seeded into the flow from a slot located 29.4 mm downstream of the sharp leading edge. The top surface of the wedge was oriented at a 20 degree angle in the Mach 10 flow, yielding an edge Mach number of approximately 4.2. The streamwise velocity profiles and streamwise fluctuating velocity component profiles were obtained using a three-laser NO2->NO photolysis molecular tagging velocimetry method. Observed trends in the mean streamwise velocity profiles and profiles of the fluctuating component of streamwise velocity as functions of the blowing rate are described. An effort is made to distinguish between the effect of blowing rate and wall temperature on the measured profiles. An analysis of the mean velocity profiles for a constant blowing rate is presented to determine the uncertainty in the measurement for different probe laser delay settings. Measurements of streamwise velocity were made to within approximately 120 gm of the model surface. The streamwise spatial resolution in this experiment ranged from 0.6 mm to 2.6 mm. An improvement in the spatial precision of the measurement technique has been made, with spatial uncertainties reduced by about a factor of 2 compared to previous measurements. For the quiescent flow calibration measurements presented, uncertainties as low as 2 m/s are obtained at 95% confidence for long delay times (25 gs). For the velocity measurements obtained with the wind tunnel operating, average single-shot uncertainties of less than 44 m/s are obtained at 95% confidence with a probe laser delay setting of 1 gs. The measurements were performed in the 31-inch Mach 10 Air Tunnel at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Bathel, Brett F.↗

Implications for the Origin of GRB 051103 from LIGO Observations

We present the results of a LIGO search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with GRB 051103, a short-duration hard-spectrum gamma-ray burst whose electromagnetically determined sky position is coincident with the spiral galaxy M81, which is 3.6Mpc from Earth. Possible progenitors for short-hard GRBs include compact object mergers and soft gamma repeater (SGR) giant flares. A merger progenitor would produce a characteristic GW signal that should be detectable at the distance of M81, while GW emission from an SGR is not expected to be detectable at that distance. We found no evidence of a GW signal associated with GRB 051103. Assuming weakly beamed gamma-ray emission with a jet semi-angle of 30. we exclude a binary neutron star merger in M81 as the progenitor with a confidence of 98%. Neutron star-black hole mergers are excluded with > 99% confidence. If the event occurred in M81 our findings support the hypothesis that GRB 051103 was due to an SGR giant flare, making it the most distant extragalactic magnetar observed to date.

Bizouard, M. A.↗

A VLA (Very Large Array) Search for 5 GHz Radio Transients and Variables at Low Galactic Latitudes

We present the results of a 5GHz survey with the Very Large Array (VLA) and the expanded VLA, designed to search for short-lived (approx < 1 day) transients and to characterize the variability of radio sources at milli-Jansky levels. A total sky area of 2.66 sq. deg, spread over 141 fields at low Galactic latitudes (b approx equals 6 - 8 deg) was observed 16 times with a cadence that was chosen to sample timescales of days, months and years. Most of the data were reduced, analyzed and searched for transients in near real time. Interesting candidates were followed up using visible light telescopes (typical delays of 1 - 2 hr) and the X-Ray Telescope on board the Swift satellite. The final processing of the data revealed a single possible transient with a flux density of f(sub v) approx equals 2.4mJy. This implies a transients sky surface density of kappa(f(sub v) > 1.8mJy) = 0.039(exp +0.13,+0.18) (sub .0.032,.0.038) / sq. deg (1, 2 sigma confidence errors). This areal density is consistent with the sky surface density of transients from the Bower et al. survey extrapolated to 1.8mJy. Our observed transient areal density is consistent with a Neutron Stars (NSs) origin for these events. Furthermore, we use the data to measure the sources variability on days to years time scales, and we present the variability structure function of 5GHz sources. The mean structure function shows a fast increase on approximately 1 day time scale, followed by a slower increase on time scales of up to 10 days. On time scales between 10 - 60 days the structure function is roughly constant. We find that approx > 30% of the unresolved sources brighter than 1.8mJy are variable at the > 4-sigma confidence level, presumably due mainly to refractive scintillation.

Ofek, E. O.↗

Using Ensemble Decisions and Active Selection to Improve Low-Cost Labeling for Multi-View Data

This paper seeks to improve low-cost labeling in terms of training set reliability (the fraction of correctly labeled training items) and test set performance for multi-view learning methods. Co-training is a popular multiview learning method that combines high-confidence example selection with low-cost (self) labeling. However, co-training with certain base learning algorithms significantly reduces training set reliability, causing an associated drop in prediction accuracy. We propose the use of ensemble labeling to improve reliability in such cases. We also discuss and show promising results on combining low-cost ensemble labeling with active (low-confidence) example selection. We unify these example selection and labeling strategies under collaborative learning, a family of techniques for multi-view learning that we are developing for distributed, sensor-network environments.

machine learning↗

Experience Report: A Do-It-Yourself High-Assurance Compiler

Embedded domain-specific languages (EDSLs) are an approach for quickly building new languages while maintaining the advantages of a rich metalanguage. We argue in this experience report that the "EDSL approach" can surprisingly ease the task of building a high-assurance compiler.We do not strive to build a fully formally-verified tool-chain, but take a "do-it-yourself" approach to increase our confidence in compiler-correctness without too much effort. Copilot is an EDSL developed by Galois, Inc. and the National Institute of Aerospace under contract to NASA for the purpose of runtime monitoring of flight-critical avionics. We report our experience in using type-checking, QuickCheck, and model-checking "off-the-shelf" to quickly increase confidence in our EDSL tool-chain.

Pike, Lee↗

Seeking Counterparts to Advanced LIGO/Virgo Transients with Swift

Binary neutron star (NS) mergers are among the most promising astrophysical sources of gravitational wave emission for Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, expected to be operational in 2015 . Finding electromagnetic counterparts to these signals will be essential to placing them in an astronomical context. The Swift satellite carries a sensitive X-ray telescope (XRT), and can respond to target-of-opportunity requests within 1-2 hours, and so is uniquely poised to find the X-ray counterparts to LIGO / Virgo triggers. Assuming NS mergers are the progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), some percentage of LIGO/Virgo triggers will be accompanied by X-ray band afterglows that are brighter than 10(exp -12) ergs/s/sq cm in the XRT band one day after the trigger time. We find that a soft X-ray transient of this flux is bright enough to be extremely rare, and so could be confidently associated with even a moderately localized GW signal. We examine two possible search strategies with the Swift XRT to find bright transients in LIGO/Virgo error boxes. In the first strategy, XRT could search a volume of space with a approx.100 Mpc radius by observing approx 30 galaxies over the course of a day, with sufficient depth to observe the expected X-ray afterglow. For an extended LIGO / Virgo horizon distance, the XRT could employ very short 100 s exposures to cover an area of approx 35 square degrees in about a day, and still be sensitive enough to image GW discovered GRB afterglows. These strategies demonstrate that the high X-ray luminosity of short GRBs and the relatively low X-ray transient background combine to make high confidence discoveries of X-ray band counterparts to GW triggers possible, though challenging, with current satellite facilities.

Kanner, Jonah↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

Observed Limits on Charge Exchange Contributions to the Diffuse X-Ray Background

We present a high-resolution spectrum of the diffuse X-ray background from 0.1 to 1 keV for an approximately 1 sr region of the sky centered at l = 90 degrees b = +60 degrees using a 36 pixel array of microcalorimeters flown on a sounding rocket. With an energy resolution of 11 eV FWHM below 1 keV, the spectrum s observed line ratios help separate charge exchange contributions originating within the heliosphere from thermal emission of hot gas in the interstellar medium. The X-ray sensitivity below 1 keV was reduced by about a factor of four from contamination that occurred early in the flight, limiting the significance of the results. The observed centroid of helium-like O VII is 568 (sup +2 (sub -3) eV at 90% confidence. Since the centroid expected for thermal emission is 568.4 eV and for charge exchange is 564.2 eV, thermal emission appears to dominate for this line complex. The dominance of thermal emission is consistent with much of the high-latitude O VII emission originating in 2-3 x 10(exp 6) K gas in the Galactic halo. On the other hand, the observed ratio of C VI Lygamma to Lyalpha is 0.3 plus or minus 0.2. The expected ratios are 0.04 for thermal emission and 0.24 for charge exchange, indicating that charge exchange must contribute strongly to this line and therefore potentially to the rest of the ROSAT R12 band usually associated with 10(sup 6) K emission from the Local Hot Bubble. The limited statistics of this experiment and systematic uncertainties due to the contamination require only greater than 32% thermal emission for O VII and greater than 20% from charge exchange for C VI at the 90% confidence level. An experimental gold coating on the silicon substrate of the array greatly reduced extraneous signals induced on nearby pixels from cosmic rays passing through the substrate, reducing the triggered event rate by a factor of 15 from a previous flight of the instrument.

Crowder, S. G.↗

On the Statistical Analysis of X-ray Polarization Measurements

In many polarimetry applications, including observations in the X-ray band, the measurement of a polarization signal can be reduced to the detection and quantification of a deviation from uniformity of a distribution of measured angles of the form alpha plus beta cosine (exp 2)(phi - phi(sub 0) (0 (is) less than phi is less than pi). We explore the statistics of such polarization measurements using both Monte Carlo simulations as well as analytic calculations based on the appropriate probability distributions. We derive relations for the number of counts required to reach a given detection level (parameterized by beta the "number of sigma's" of the measurement) appropriate for measuring the modulation amplitude alpha by itself (single interesting parameter case) or jointly with the position angle phi (two interesting parameters case). We show that for the former case when the intrinsic amplitude is equal to the well known minimum detectable polarization (MDP) it is, on average, detected at the 3sigma level. For the latter case, when one requires a joint measurement at the same confidence level, then more counts are needed, by a factor of approximately equal to 2.2, than that required to achieve the MDP level. We find that the position angle uncertainty at 1sigma confidence is well described by the relation sigma(sub pi) equals 28.5(degrees) divided by beta.

Strohmayer, T. E.↗

Observed Limits on Charge Exchange Contributions to the Diffuse X-Ray Background

We present a high-resolution spectrum of the diffuse X-ray background from 0.1 to 1 keV for an approximately 1 sr region of the sky centered at l = 90 degrees b = +60 degrees using a 36 pixel array of microcalorimeters flown on a sounding rocket. With an energy resolution of 11 eV FWHM below 1 keV, the spectrum s observed line ratios help separate charge exchange contributions originating within the heliosphere from thermal emission of hot gas in the interstellar medium. The X-ray sensitivity below 1 keV was reduced by about a factor of four from contamination that occurred early in the flight, limiting the significance of the results. The observed centroid of helium-like O VII is 568 (sup +2 (sub -3) eV at 90% confidence. Since the centroid expected for thermal emission is 568.4 eV and for charge exchange is 564.2 eV, thermal emission appears to dominate for this line complex. The dominance of thermal emission is consistent with much of the high-latitude O VII emission originating in 2-3 x 10(exp 6) K gas in the Galactic halo. On the other hand, the observed ratio of C VI Lygamma to Lyalpha is 0.3 plus or minus 0.2. The expected ratios are 0.04 for thermal emission and 0.24 for charge exchange, indicating that charge exchange must contribute strongly to this line and therefore potentially to the rest of the ROSAT R12 band usually associated with 10(sup 6) K emission from the Local Hot Bubble. The limited statistics of this experiment and systematic uncertainties due to the contamination require only greater than 32% thermal emission for O VII and greater than 20% from charge exchange for C VI at the 90% confidence level. An experimental gold coating on the silicon substrate of the array greatly reduced extraneous signals induced on nearby pixels from cosmic rays passing through the substrate, reducing the triggered event rate by a factor of 15 from a previous flight of the instrument.

Crowder, S. G.↗

NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development

NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.

Romeo, James↗

Soft Decision Analyzer

The Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) is an instrument that combines hardware, firmware, and software to perform realtime closed-loop end-to-end statistical analysis of single- or dual- channel serial digital RF communications systems operating in very low signal-to-noise conditions. As an innovation, the unique SDA capabilities allow it to perform analysis of situations where the receiving communication system slips bits due to low signal-to-noise conditions or experiences constellation rotations resulting in channel polarity in versions or channel assignment swaps. SDA s closed-loop detection allows it to instrument a live system and correlate observations with frame, codeword, and packet losses, as well as Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) events. The SDA s abilities are not confined to performing analysis in low signal-to-noise conditions. Its analysis provides in-depth insight of a communication system s receiver performance in a variety of operating conditions. The SDA incorporates two techniques for identifying slips. The first is an examination of content of the received data stream s relation to the transmitted data content and the second is a direct examination of the receiver s recovered clock signals relative to a reference. Both techniques provide benefits in different ways and allow the communication engineer evaluating test results increased confidence and understanding of receiver performance. Direct examination of data contents is performed by two different data techniques, power correlation or a modified Massey correlation, and can be applied to soft decision data widths 1 to 12 bits wide over a correlation depth ranging from 16 to 512 samples. The SDA detects receiver bit slips within a 4 bits window and can handle systems with up to four quadrants (QPSK, SQPSK, and BPSK systems). The SDA continuously monitors correlation results to characterize slips and quadrant change and is capable of performing analysis even when the receiver under test is subjected to conditions where its performance degrades to high error rates (30 percent or beyond). The design incorporates a number of features, such as watchdog triggers that permit the SDA system to recover from large receiver upsets automatically and continue accumulating performance analysis unaided by operator intervention. This accommodates tests that can last in the order of days in order to gain statistical confidence in results and is also useful for capturing snapshots of rare events.

Steele, Glen↗

Reply to ''Comments on 'Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as much as Expected?'''

In response to our article, Why Hasnt Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (2010), Knutti and Plattner (2012) wrote a rebuttal. The term climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in global mean surface temperature that is produced by a specified change in forcing, such as a change in solar heating or greenhouse gas concentrations. We had argued in the 2010 paper that although climate models can reproduce the global mean surface temperature history over the past century, the uncertainties in these models, due primarily to the uncertainty in climate forcing by airborne particles, mean that the models lack the confidence to actually constrain the climate sensitivity within useful limits for climate prediction. Knutti and Plattner are climate modelers, and they argued essentially that because the models could reproduce the surface temperature history, the issue we raised was moot. Our response amounts to straightening out this confusion; for the models to be constraining, they must be able to reproduce the surface temperature history with sufficient confidence, not just to match the measurements, but to exclude alternative histories. As before, we concluded that if we can actually make the aerosol measurements using currently available, state-of-the-art techniques, we can determine the aerosol climate forcing to the degree required to constrain that aspect of model climate sensitivity. A technical issue relating to the timescale over which a change in CO2 emissions would be equilibrated in the environmental energy balance was also discussed, again, a matter of differences in terminology.

Schwartz, Stephen E.↗

JCL Implementation On A Human Spaceflight Program

Joint Confidence Level (JCL) analysis focuses on the integration of traditionally stove-piped programmatic components (schedule, cost and risk) to establish projected resource and schedule requirements at various confidence levels and to identify programmatic cost and schedule risk drivers. SLS Program consists of multiple Prime Contractors managed by independent SLS Elements which are integrated using SE&I and Program Management. SLS further integrates with GSDO and MPCV through ESD integrated working groups.

Kulpa, Vyga↗

A Supplementary Clear-Sky Snow and Ice Recognition Technique for CERES Level 2 Products

Identification of clear-sky snow and ice is an important step in the production of cryosphere radiation budget products, which are used in the derivation of long-term data series for climate research. In this paper, a new method of clear-sky snow/ice identification for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is presented. The algorithm's goal is to enhance the identification of snow and ice within the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data after application of the standard CERES scene identification scheme. The input of the algorithm uses spectral radiances from five MODIS bands and surface skin temperature available in the CERES Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product. The algorithm produces a cryosphere rating from an aggregated test: a higher rating corresponds to a more certain identification of the clear-sky snow/ice-covered scene. Empirical analysis of regions of interest representing distinctive targets such as snow, ice, ice and water clouds, open waters, and snow-free land selected from a number of MODIS images shows that the cryosphere rating of snow/ice targets falls into 95% confidence intervals lying above the same confidence intervals of all other targets. This enables recognition of clear-sky cryosphere by using a single threshold applied to the rating, which makes this technique different from traditional branching techniques based on multiple thresholds. Limited tests show that the established threshold clearly separates the cryosphere rating values computed for the cryosphere from those computed for noncryosphere scenes, whereas individual tests applied consequently cannot reliably identify the cryosphere for complex scenes.

Radkevich, Alexander↗