SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Search for Higgs boson decays into a Z boson and a light hadronically decaying resonance in pp collisions at s =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for decays of the Higgs boson into a Z boson and a light resonance, with a mass of 0.5–3.5 GeV, is performed using the full 140 fb−1 dataset of 13 TeV proton–proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector during LHC Run 2. Leptonic decays of the Z boson and hadronic decays of the light resonance are considered. The resonance can be interpreted as a J / ψ or η c meson, an axion-like particle, or a light pseudoscalar predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models. Due to its low mass, this resonance is produced with a high Lorentz boost in the laboratory frame and therefore reconstructed as a single small-radius jet of hadrons. A neural network is used to correct the Monte Carlo simulation of the total expected background using data from sideband regions. Two additional neural networks are used to distinguish signal from background, enhancing the purity of the signal region. A binned profile-likelihood fit is performed on the final-state invariant mass distribution. No significant excess of events relative to the expected background is observed, and upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the Higgs boson's branching fraction to a Z boson and a light resonance. The exclusion limit is ∼10% for the lower masses, and increases for higher masses. Upper limits on the effective coupling C Z H eff / Λ of an axion-like particle to a Higgs boson and Z boson are also set at 95% confidence level, and range from 0.9 to 2 TeV−1.

Aad, G↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining off-shell Higgs boson production and the Higgs boson total width using WW → ℓνℓν final states with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production is performed in the H* → WW channel. The measurement uses a proton–proton collision dataset with an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Final states in which both W bosons decay leptonically are targeted, and events are categorised based on the flavour of the final-state leptons, the jet multiplicity, and the output of neural network-based classifiers. The data are found to be compatible with the Standard Model expectation. An observed (expected) upper bound on the 95 % symmetric confidence level interval is set on the rate of off-shell Higgs boson production at a value of 3.4 (4.4) times the Standard Model prediction. These results are combined with the results from the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production in the same final states to obtain an observed (expected) upper bound at 95 % confidence level on the Higgs boson total width of 13.1 (17.3) MeV.

Aad, G. [Aix-Marseille Univ., Marseille (France)] ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Study of Higgs boson pair production in the HH → b $\overline{b}$ γγ final state with 308 fb −1 of data collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV and 13.6 TeV by the ATLAS experiment

A search for Higgs boson pair production in the b $\overline{b}$ γγ −1, consisting of two samples, 140 fb −1 at a centre-of-mass energy of s = 13 TeV and 168 fb −1 at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV , recorded between 2015 and 2024 by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. In addition to a larger dataset, this analysis improves upon the previous search in the same final state through several methodological and technical developments. The Higgs boson pair production cross section divided by the Standard Model prediction is found to be μ HH = 0.9$^{+1.4}_{−1.1}$ (μ HH = 1$^{+1.3}_{−1.0}$ expected), which translates into a 95% confidence-level upper limit of μ HH < 3.7. At the same confidence level the Higgs self-coupling modifier is constrained to be in the range −1.6 < κ λ < 6.6 (−1.8 < κ λ < 6.9 expected).

ATLAS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. The applicability of the code for an intended application is represented in terms of various maturity levels and helps in the process of decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

The influence of cloud cover on the reliability of satellite-based solar resource data

Satellite-based solar resource data are often developed and validated by using binary cloudiness categories: clear sky or overcast cloudy sky. To investigate the reliability of solar resource data in partially cloudy conditions, we estimate cloud fraction using two distinct algorithms: a physical retrieval model using surface observed global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) and a temporal average of cloud mask data estimated by the observed DNI. Our analysis reveals a significant presence of scattered clouds, broken clouds, and mismatches between satellite- and surface-based cloud data at 17 surface sites across the contiguous United States, though confidently clear and cloudy conditions collectively account for more than 70 % of the data. Solar radiation is computed using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) algorithm and validated using surface observations. Here, our findings suggest that, in the presence of scattered clouds, NSRDB data for clear-sky conditions can be subject to significant overestimation. In cloudy-sky conditions classified by satellite data, DNI computed by the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) can be underestimated when limited clouds are detected by surface observations. The bias observed in several cloudiness categories indicates that the NSRDB is exceptionally accurate in confidently clear conditions. However, clear-sky conditions with scattered clouds and mismatched cloud data contribute significantly to the overall uncertainties in the NSRDB. Therefore, future improvements in solar resource data should involve development and implementation of satellite-derived cloud fraction and should consider a novel radiative transfer model accounting for amplified cloud reflection. The evaluation within cloudiness categories also provides a physical rationale for the superior performance of FARMS-DNI compared to the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC) in both cloudy-sky and all-sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

E-scooter safety: How attitudinal factors influence risky behavior among shared e-scooter riders

In recent years, e-scooter usage for short-distance trips has grown rapidly. This surge in e-scooter use, combined with the high exposure of e-scooter riders to accident risk, has sparked concerns regarding e-scooter safety. Despite some studies focusing on e-scooter safety, little is known about how attitudinal factors lead e-scooter riders to engage in risky riding behaviors. In this paper, we developed a survey-based empirical model to identify the attitudinal factors influencing engagement in risky behaviors among e-scooter users. We used survey data collected from 420 shared e-scooter users in Chicago in 2022. The survey showed that 47.7% of respondents had experienced at least one collision or fall-off while riding e-scooters. We employed the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to examine the relationships between latent attitudinal factors and risky behavior engagement. Moreover, we conducted Permutation Multi-group Analysis (PMGA) to assess the moderating effect of socio-demographic factors within the estimated model. The findings suggest that riders’ unsafe riding attitude and riding confidence are the most influential factors shaping their risky behavior engagement. In addition, accident experience, infrastructure suitability, perceived enjoyment, traffic risk perception, and operational risk perception are among the other significant predictors. Among socio-demographic factors, gender, age, education, and car use frequency significantly influence riders’ engagement in risky behaviors. The results highlight the importance of infrastructure suitability and accident experience in analyzing e-scooter users’ riding behavior. The developed model advances our understanding of factors contributing to e-scooter riders’ risky behavior engagement. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and e-scooter vendors aiming to mitigate e-scooter users’ accident risk. Specifically, we recommend three safety countermeasures: (1) safety training programs to encourage a safer attitude, (2) practice-based initiatives to enhance riding confidence, and (3) infrastructure improvements, especially the expansion of bike lanes.

E-scooter↗

DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing the consistency of cosmological contours for supernova cosmology

As the scale of cosmological surveys increases, so does the complexity in the analyses. This complexity can often make it difficult to derive the underlying principles, necessitating statistically rigorous testing to ensure the results of an analysis are consistent and reasonable. This is particularly important in multi-probe cosmological analyses like those used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time, where accurate uncertainties are vital. In this paper, we present a statistically rigorous method to test the consistency of contours produced in these analyses and apply this method to the Pippin cosmological pipeline used for type Ia supernova cosmology with the DES. We make use of the Neyman construction, a frequentist methodology that leverages extensive simulations to calculate confidence intervals, to perform this consistency check. A true Neyman construction is too computationally expensive for supernova cosmology, so we develop a method for approximating a Neyman construction with far fewer simulations. We find that for a simulated dataset, the 68% contour reported by the Pippin pipeline and the 68% confidence region produced by our approximate Neyman construction differ by less than a percent near the input cosmology; however, they show more significant differences far from the input cosmology, with a maximal difference of 0.05 in $Ω$ M and 0.07 in w. In conclusion, this divergence is most impactful for analyses of cosmological tensions, but its impact is mitigated when combining supernovae with other cross-cutting cosmological probes, such as the cosmic microwave background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

RG-CAT: Detection pipeline and catalogue of radio galaxies in the EMU pilot survey

Abstract We present source detection and catalogue construction pipelines to build the first catalogue of radio galaxies from the 270$\rm deg^2$pilot survey of the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU-PS) conducted with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. The detection pipeline uses Gal-DINO computer vision networks (Gupta et al. 2024, PASA, 41, e001) to predict the categories of radio morphology and bounding boxes for radio sources, as well as their potential infrared host positions. The Gal-DINO network is trained and evaluated on approximately 5 000 visually inspected radio galaxies and their infrared hosts, encompassing both compact and extended radio morphologies. We find that the Intersection over Union (IoU) for the predicted and ground-truth bounding boxes is larger than 0.5 for 99% of the radio sources, and 98% of predicted host positions are within$3^{\prime \prime}$of the ground-truth infrared host in the evaluation set. The catalogue construction pipeline uses the predictions of the trained network on the radio and infrared image cutouts based on the catalogue of radio components identified using theSelavysource finder algorithm. Confidence scores of the predictions are then used to prioritiseSelavycomponents with higher scores and incorporate them first into the catalogue. This results in identifications for a total of 211 625 radio sources, with 201 211 classified as compact and unresolved. The remaining 10 414 are categorised as extended radio morphologies, including 582 FR-I, 5 602 FR-II, 1 494 FR-x (uncertain whether FR-I or FR-II), 2 375 R (single-peak resolved) radio galaxies, and 361 with peculiar and other rare morphologies. Each source in the catalogue includes a confidence score. We cross-match the radio sources in the catalogue with the infrared and optical catalogues, finding infrared cross-matches for 73% and photometric redshifts for 36% of the radio galaxies. The EMU-PS catalogue and the detection pipelines presented here will be used towards constructing catalogues for the main EMU survey covering the full southern sky.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bullying among children with heart conditions, National Survey of Children’s Health, 2018–2020

Abstract Children with chronic illnesses report being bullied by peers, yet little is known about bullying among children with heart conditions. Using 2018–2020 National Survey of Children’s Health data, the prevalence and frequency of being bullied in the past year (never; annually or monthly; weekly or daily) were compared between children aged 6–17 years with and without heart conditions. Among children with heart conditions, associations between demographic and health characteristics and being bullied, and prevalence of diagnosed anxiety or depression by bullying status were examined. Differences were assessed with chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression using predicted marginals to produce adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Weights yielded national estimates. Of 69,428 children, 2.2% had heart conditions. Children with heart conditions, compared to those without, were more likely to be bullied (56.3% and 43.3% respectively; adjusted prevalence ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.3 [1.2, 1.4]) and bullied more frequently (weekly or daily = 11.2% and 5.3%; p < 0.001). Among children with heart conditions, characteristics associated with greater odds of weekly or daily bullying included ages 9–11 years compared to 15–17 years (3.4 [2.0, 5.7]), other genetic or inherited condition (1.7 [1.0, 3.0]), ever overweight (1.7 [1.0, 2.8]), and a functional limitation (4.8 [2.7, 8.5]). Children with heart conditions who were bullied, compared to never, more commonly had anxiety (40.1%, 25.9%, and 12.8%, respectively) and depression (18.0%, 9.3%, and 4.7%; p < 0.01 for both). Findings highlight the social and psychological needs of children with heart conditions.

Cardiovascular System & Cardiology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Utility of Permethylated Polysaccharide Solution NMR Data for Characterization of Insoluble Plant Cell Wall Polysaccharides

Plant cell wall polysaccharide analysis encompasses the utilization of a variety of analytical tools, including gas and liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry (MS), and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. These methods provide complementary data, which enable confident structural proposals of the many complex polysaccharide structures that exist in the complex matrices of plant cell walls. However, cell walls contain fractions of varying solubilities, and a few techniques are available that can analyze all fractions simultaneously. We have discovered that permethylation affords the complete dissolution of both soluble and insoluble polysaccharide fractions of plant cell walls in organic solvents such as chloroform or acetonitrile, which can then be analyzed by a number of analytical techniques including MS and NMR. In this work, NMR structure analysis of 10 permethylated polysaccharide standards was undertaken to generate chemical shift data providing insights into spectral changes that result from permethylation of polysaccharide residues. This information is of especial relevance to the structure analysis of insoluble polysaccharide materials that otherwise are not easily investigated by solution-state NMR methodologies. The preassigned NMR chemical shift data is shown to be vital for NMR structure analysis of minor polysaccharide components of plant cell walls that are particularly difficult to assign by NMR correlation data alone. With the assigned chemical shift data, we analyzed the permethylated samples of destarched, alcohol-insoluble residues of switchgrass and poplar by two-dimensional NMR spectral profiling. Thus, we identified, in addition to the major polysaccharide components, two minor polysaccharides, namely, <5% 3-linked arabinoxylan (switchgrass) and <2% glucomannan (poplar). In particular, the position of the arabinose residue in the arabinoxylan of the switchgrass sample was confidently assigned based on chemical shift values, which are highly sensitive to local chemical environments. Furthermore, the high resolution afforded by the 1H NMR spectra of the permethylated switchgrass and poplar samples allowed facile relative quantitative analysis of their polysaccharide composition, utilizing only a few milligrams of the cell wall material. As a result, the concepts herein developed will thus facilitate NMR structure analysis of insoluble plant cell wall polysaccharides, more so of minor cell wall components that are especially challenging to analyze with current methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Expanded Coverage of Phytocompounds by Mass Spectrometry Imaging Using On-Tissue Chemical Derivatization by 4-APEBA

Probing the entirety of any species metabolome is an analytical grand challenge, especially at a cellular scale. Where spatial metabolomics, completed primarily by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI), has limited molecular coverage for several reasons. To expand the scope of spatial metabolomics, we developed an on-tissue chemical derivatization (OTCD) workflow using 4-APEBA for confident identification of several dozen elusive phytocompounds, including several phytohormones, which have various roles within stress responses and cellular communication. Superiority of 4-APEBA is established in comparison to other derivatization agents with (1) broad specificity towards carbonyls, (2) low background, and (3) introduction of bromine isotopes, where the latter two facilitate confident bioinformatics. In conclusion, the outlined workflow trailblazes a path towards spatial hormonomics within plant samples, enhancing detection of carboxylates, aldehydes, ketones, and plausibly phenols.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Measurement Precision on Metabolite Identification Probability in Multidimensional Mass Spectrometry-Based, Reference-Free Metabolomics

Identification of compounds with minimal ambiguity remains a central challenge in mass spectrometry-based metabolomics. Conventional compound identification relies on comparing analytical signatures (e.g., mass-to-charge ratio, collision cross section, tandem mass spectra) against reference data obtained from measurements of authentic chemical standards. The breadth of annotatable compounds using this approach is necessarily limited by availability of authentic standards, analytical throughput, and resolving power of the separations that underly the measurements. The maturation of computational methods, both theory-driven and artificial intelligence/machine learning-based, for prediction of various molecular properties relevant to multidimensional mass spectrometry measurements has opened the door to a new “reference-free” paradigm of compound annotation. Through augmenting existing reference data for molecular properties with computational predictions, the universe of identifiable chemical species can be expanded significantly beyond its current limits. An unexplored aspect of this novel approach is understanding how to gauge confidence in resulting annotations, especially as the compound search space is expanded. Intuitively, the confidence of a compound annotation is related to the inherent discriminatory power of the molecular properties used for identification, as well as the precision with which the properties are measured or predicted. In this work, we characterize this relationship between measurement precision and identification probability in a systematic and quantitative fashion for a defined region of chemical space that includes organic small molecule metabolites. Importantly, this work establishes a framework for conducting metabolite identification probability analysis that enables others to quantify this relationship for their own compounds and properties of interest.

Metabolite Identification↗

DOE OSTI2020

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

In this work, we assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Blowing Snow at McMurdo Station, Antarctica During the AWARE Field Campaign: Surface and Ceilometer Observations

Blowing snow (BLSN) is an impactful process in cold climates, affecting regional thermodynamics, radiation properties, and the surface mass balance of snow. Though it has significant climatic impacts, the process is still poorly understood and not widely included in weather and climate models. In 2016, the AWARE Field Campaign saw the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments to McMurdo Station, Antarctica allowing for investigation of BLSN. A ceilometer–based BLSN detection algorithm used elsewhere in Antarctica is applied to data from AWARE, yielding a BLSN frequency of 14.1% compared to 8.2% as detected by human observers. To increase confidence in detections, the algorithm is updated to have shorter temporal averaging and to include a variety of meteorological thresholds to limit false detections due to fog. Efforts to incorporate a laser disdrometer into the algorithm were unsuccessful. An unphysical dependence of particle size distributions on wind speed is found suggesting observations are problematic at wind speeds greater than 10 m s –1 . The revised algorithm detected a BLSN frequency of 7.4%, increasing agreement with human observations and confidence that the process is actively occurring at the observation site. Furthermore, these observations are put into context of a climatology of human observations of BLSN at McMurdo station from 2002–2018. An annual average of 8.0%–14.0% is estimated, with a total annual range of 3.4%–21.3%. Regardless of whether BLSN is observed by humans or instrument, the majority of cases at this location are associated with ongoing precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

AlphaFold predictions are valuable hypotheses and accelerate but do not replace experimental structure determination

Abstract Artificial intelligence-based protein structure prediction methods such as AlphaFold have revolutionized structural biology. The accuracies of these predictions vary, however, and they do not take into account ligands, covalent modifications or other environmental factors. Here, we evaluate how well AlphaFold predictions can be expected to describe the structure of a protein by comparing predictions directly with experimental crystallographic maps. In many cases, AlphaFold predictions matched experimental maps remarkably closely. In other cases, even very high-confidence predictions differed from experimental maps on a global scale through distortion and domain orientation, and on a local scale in backbone and side-chain conformation. We suggest considering AlphaFold predictions as exceptionally useful hypotheses. We further suggest that it is important to consider the confidence in prediction when interpreting AlphaFold predictions and to carry out experimental structure determination to verify structural details, particularly those that involve interactions not included in the prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable machine learning models classify minerals via spectroscopy

Developing methods to identify mineral species confidently and rapidly from Raman spectral analysis is critical to numerous fields. Traditionally, analysis relies on pattern matching the Raman spectrum of an unknown dataset with a supporting library of well-characterized spectral data, which may prove difficult for environmental samples that are poorly crystalline or phase mixtures. Here, we developed interpretable machine learning models that can classify uranium minerals by secondary oxyanion chemistry and other physicochemical properties based solely on Raman spectra. This new ML method produces a mineral profile of physical and chemical properties for an unknown sample and can rapidly classify or identify unknown minerals from Raman data, without the need for an exact pattern match in a spectral library. Training models are validated by 1. Strong correlation of high confidence model regions with published spectroscopic assignments and 2. Correct classification of a mineral not present in training data. Training data are from the Compendium of Uranium Raman and Infrared Experimental Spectra and available crystallographic information files within the open-source Smart Spectral Matching scientific framework. Physically meaningful classifier models can rapidly identify key structural and chemical information about unknown uranium minerals and the overall methodology is broadly applicable for mineral phases.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗