Results for “Computational Margin” — Page 20

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Modeling of Carbon Ablators

Efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. To reduce the need for extensive testing, accelerate the design cycle process, and reduce uncertainty margins applied to final designs, NASA is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable characterization of material properties and response to high-enthalpy environments. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) code has been developed for computing macroscale (volume averaged) properties of porous materials using microscale images from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Microscale modeling requires a realistic representation of a material microstructure; these are obtained either synthetically during the design of the material or through X-ray micro-CT. Volume averaged properties are then used to inform macroscale material response models, such as those implemented in the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software, also actively developed by NASA. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale assuming local thermal equilibrium. These tools were developed to efficiently interface with other pre-existing codes such as SPARTA (direct simulation Monte Carlo), DPLR (hypersonic CFD), NEQAIR (radiative transport) and DAKOTA (uncertainty quantification and optimization). Detailed flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI]) is critical for validating these computational tools for NASA applications. Examples of modeling ablative material response using these codes will be presented including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrate the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains, through the use of massively parallel computations.

Thermal Protection Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Modeling of Carbon Ablators Using Micro and Macro-Scale Modeling

Efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. To reduce the need for extensive testing, accelerate the design cycle process, and reduce uncertainty margins applied to final designs, NASA is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable characterization of material properties and response to high-enthalpy environments. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) code has been developed for computing macroscale (volume averaged) properties of porous materials using microscale images from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Microscale modeling requires a realistic representation of a material microstructure; these are obtained either synthetically during the design of the material or through X-ray micro-CT. Volume averaged properties are then used to inform macroscale material response models, such as those implemented in the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software, also actively developed by NASA. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale assuming local thermal equilibrium. These tools were developed to efficiently interface with other pre-existing codes such as SPARTA (direct simulation Monte Carlo), DPLR (hypersonic CFD), NEQAIR (radiative transport) and DAKOTA (uncertainty quantification and optimization). Detailed flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI]) is critical for validating these computational tools for NASA applications. Examples of modeling ablative material response using these codes will be presented including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrate the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains, through the use of massively parallel computations.

Thermal Protection Systems↗

NASA NTRS2015

Rao-Blackwellization for Adaptive Gaussian Sum Nonlinear Model Propagation

When dealing with imperfect data and general models of dynamic systems, the best estimate is always sought in the presence of uncertainty or unknown parameters. In many cases, as the first attempt, the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) provides sufficient solutions to handling issues arising from nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems. But these issues may lead unacceptable performance and even divergence. In order to accurately capture the nonlinearities of most real-world dynamic systems, advanced filtering methods have been created to reduce filter divergence while enhancing performance. Approaches, such as Gaussian sum filtering, grid based Bayesian methods and particle filters are well-known examples of advanced methods used to represent and recursively reproduce an approximation to the state probability density function (pdf). Some of these filtering methods were conceptually developed years before their widespread uses were realized. Advanced nonlinear filtering methods currently benefit from the computing advancements in computational speeds, memory, and parallel processing. Grid based methods, multiple-model approaches and Gaussian sum filtering are numerical solutions that take advantage of different state coordinates or multiple-model methods that reduced the amount of approximations used. Choosing an efficient grid is very difficult for multi-dimensional state spaces, and oftentimes expensive computations must be done at each point. For the original Gaussian sum filter, a weighted sum of Gaussian density functions approximates the pdf but suffers at the update step for the individual component weight selections. In order to improve upon the original Gaussian sum filter, Ref. [2] introduces a weight update approach at the filter propagation stage instead of the measurement update stage. This weight update is performed by minimizing the integral square difference between the true forecast pdf and its Gaussian sum approximation. By adaptively updating each component weight during the nonlinear propagation stage an approximation of the true pdf can be successfully reconstructed. Particle filtering (PF) methods have gained popularity recently for solving nonlinear estimation problems due to their straightforward approach and the processing capabilities mentioned above. The basic concept behind PF is to represent any pdf as a set of random samples. As the number of samples increases, they will theoretically converge to the exact, equivalent representation of the desired pdf. When the estimated qth moment is needed, the samples are used for its construction allowing further analysis of the pdf characteristics. However, filter performance deteriorates as the dimension of the state vector increases. To overcome this problem Ref. [5] applies a marginalization technique for PF methods, decreasing complexity of the system to one linear and another nonlinear state estimation problem. The marginalization theory was originally developed by Rao and Blackwell independently. According to Ref. [6] it improves any given estimator under every convex loss function. The improvement comes from calculating a conditional expected value, often involving integrating out a supportive statistic. In other words, Rao-Blackwellization allows for smaller but separate computations to be carried out while reaching the main objective of the estimator. In the case of improving an estimator's variance, any supporting statistic can be removed and its variance determined. Next, any other information that dependents on the supporting statistic is found along with its respective variance. A new approach is developed here by utilizing the strengths of the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation in Ref. [2] and a marginalization approach used for PF methods found in Ref. [7]. In the following sections a modified filtering approach is presented based on a special state-space model within nonlinear systems to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization problem in Ref. [2]. First, the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is explained and then the new marginalized adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is derived. Finally, an example simulation is presented.

state estimation↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Rate Constant for NH 2 +HO 2 and Third-Body Collision Efficiencies for NH 2 +H(+M) and NH 2 +NH 2 (+M)

In low-temperature flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 mixtures, the NH 2 consumption rate and the product distribution is controlled by the reactions NH 2 + HO 2 → products (R1), NH 2 + H (+M) → NH 3 (+M) (R2), and NH 2 + NH 2 (+M) → N 2 H 4 (+M) (R3). In the present work, published flash photolysis experiments by, among others, Cheskis and co-workers, are re-interpreted using recent direct measurements of NH 2 + H (+N 2 ) and NH 2 + NH 2 (+N 2 ) from Altinay and Macdonald. To facilitate analysis of the FP data, relative third-body collision efficiencies compared to N 2 for R2 and R3 were calculated for O 2 and NH 3 as well as for other selected molecules. We report results were in good agreement with the limited experimental data. Based on reported NH 2 decay rates in flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 , a rate constant for NH 2 + HO 2 → NH 3 + O 2 (R1a) of $k_{1\text{a}}$ = 1.5(±0.5) × 10 14 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K was derived. This value is higher than earlier determinations based on the FP results but in good agreement with recent theoretical work. Kinetic modeling of reported N 2 O yields indicates that NH 2 + HO 2 → H 2 NO + O (R1c) is competing with R1a, but perturbation experiments with addition of CH4 indicate that it is not a dominating channel. Measured HNO profiles indicate that this component is formed directly by NH 2 + HO 2 → HNO + H 2 O (R1b), but theoretical work indicates that R1b is only a minor channel. Based on this analysis, we estimate $k_{1\text{c}}$ = 2.5 × 10 13 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 and $k_{1\text{b}}$ = 2.5 × 10 12 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K, with significant uncertainty margins.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

On Using Linux Kernel Huge Pages with FLASH, an Astrophysical Simulation Code

We present efforts at improving the performance of FLASH, a multi-scale, multi-physics simulation code principally for astrophysical applications, by using huge pages on Ookami, an HPE Apollo 80 A64FX platform. FLASH is written principally in modern Fortran and makes use of the PARAMESH library to manage a block-structured adaptive mesh. We explored options for enabling the use of huge pages with several compilers, but we were only able to successfully use huge pages when compiling with the Fujitsu compiler. As a result, the use of huge pages substantially reduced the number of translation lookaside buffer misses, but overall performance gains were marginal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Numerical investigations of background pressure effects and channel erosion in the SPT-140 Hall thruster for the Psyche mission

Four SPT-140 Hall thrusters are the main components of the electric propulsion system for the Psyche mission. We employ the 2-D (r-z) code Hall2De to conduct numerical simulations of the SPT-140 with the goal of estimating erosion of the acceleration channel rings for the Psyche mission profile. The simulations are informed by direct measurements of the plasma conditions in the acceleration channel that were obtained using laser-induced fluorescence. We validate our simulation results with additional plasma measurements, wear test erosion rates, and performance data as a function of background pressure. We then make use of a series of numerical simulations to compute the progressive erosion of the channel walls, using as input parameters a profile for the Psyche mission that includes operation at 4.5, 2.5 and 1.0 kW with duration of all segments increased by a 50% margin. We find that the channel walls are not completely eroded at the end of the mission (plus 50% margin). We also observe a progressive decrease in thrust as the channel walls erode that is consistent with the wear test and flight data, with a rate of ~4.5 mN/kh for the first 2,500 h and constant thrust after that. The reasons for these thrust trends are explained.

Lenguito, Giovanni↗

DOE OSTI2022

A machining digital twin for hybrid manufacturing

Hybrid manufacturing consisting of metal additively manufactured preforms and computer numerical control (CNC) machining has been established to be an effective method for high material use rates. However, hybrid manufacturing introduces unique challenges. Near-net shape designs are typically selected, which result in a smaller margin for part placement within the stock and stringent requirements for work coordinate system identification. Additionally, less stock material reduces the preform stiffness, which limits the material removal rates during machining. This paper demonstrates a digital twin for CNC machining of a wire arc additively manufactured preform that implements: 1) structured light scanning for stock model identification and tool path generation; 2) a fused filament fabrication apparatus to attach temporary fiducials and scan targets to the preform that enable coordinate system definition for both the CAM and CNC machine; 3) preform and tool tip frequency response function measurements to enable stable milling parameter selection; and 4) post-manufacturing measurements of geometry, surface finish, and structural dynamics to confirm designer intent. These efforts define key components of the machining digital twin for hybrid manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A review of water valuation metrics: Supporting sustainable water use in manufacturing

In the manufacturing sector, water has been often considered too cheap to conserve. Such thinking relies on water valuations that limit the value of water to the price paid. Using such simple methods, the share of water cost to total manufacturing cost is significantly small, <3%. As a result, conserving water and enabling technology uptake is difficult to justify economically and slow to advance, hindering progress toward sustainable water use. However, the value of water to a manufacturer is far greater than the price paid. Valuations such as the true cost of water consider the additional in-plant treatment and energy costs and have been gaining greater traction in the manufacturing sector. However, true cost alone still undervalues water by not accounting for economic and social costs related to scarcity and environmental externalities. This paper makes the case and presents a framework for valuing manufacturing water beyond the price paid and the true cost. The proposed fuller valuation of manufacturing water takes into account the internal and opportunity costs associated with the realization of water risks. The paper follows with a review of a wide range of water valuation metrics, both at the specific industry level and regional/economy-wide level. The use of various valuation metrics incorporating the relationship between the change in value with change in water use, such as marginal value of water, shadow price, and elasticity at the specific industry level, has been limited in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Further, a limited number of studies exist on data-intensive subjective evaluation techniques such as computable general equilibrium modeling and input-output modeling for regional water valuation. After reviewing water value metrics, several recent case studies from manufacturers from the literature are presented to illustrate both the promise and challenges of a fuller valuation of water as proposed here. Some large multinational corporations have moved toward assessing the value of water via supply chain sustainability initiatives, environmental profit and loss accounting, estimating risk-adjusted values of water, hydro-economic modeling, natural capital asset valuation, and developing value chain indices. This paper provides policymakers and technology developers a framework for monetizing water value beyond its true cost and current metrics. If adopted, such fuller water valuations can help make the business case for the development and deployment of cost-effective water-conserving technologies, thereby improving the sustainability of the manufacturing sector with respect to water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Beyond Capacity Credits: Adaptive Stress Period Planning for Evolving Power Systems

This paper combines and applies concepts from several researchers to outline an alternative framework to plan power systems for resource adequacy needs, which we call Adaptive Stress Period Planning (ASPP). It first provides background information regarding least-cost planning objectives and the challenge of balancing an increasing need for model representation with computational intensity as power systems evolve in complexity. Next, it motivates the opportunity for a new paradigm by outlining challenges of frameworks in use today that rely on aggregate capacity heuristics (i.e., capacity credits and planning reserve margins). Subsequently, it lays out main process details of ASPP, which more directly represents spatial and temporal dynamics of power systems in a capacity expansion model with a process to adaptively select risk periods. The paper concludes with a summary of the approach, its benefits, and opportunities for future work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗

NASA NTRS1993

BLASIM - A computational tool to assess ice impact damage on engine blades

A portable computer code called BLASIM is developed at NASA LeRC to assess the ice impact damage on aircraft engine blades. In addition to the ice impact analyses, the code is also capable of carrying out static, dynamic, resonance margin and flutter analyses. The blade can be solid, hollow, superhybrid or composite material. An optional preprocessor (input generator) is also developed to generate input to the code through interactive process. The blade geometry can be defined either by a series of airfoils at discrete input stations or by a finite element grid. The code employs a coarse fixed finite element mesh with triangular plate finite elements and has quick turnaround time. The ice piece is modeled as an equivalent spherical object and has the velocity opposite to that of the aircraft with direction parallel to the engine axis. For the local impact damage assessment, the impact force is considered as a distributed load acting over a region around the impact point and the average radial strain of the finite elements along the leading edge is taken as a measure of the local damage. To estimate the damage at the blade root, the impact is considered to be an impulse and a combined stress failure criteria is employed. Parametric studies for local and root ice impact damage, and post-impact dynamics are discussed for solid and composite blades.

Reddy, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Improvement in detection of small wildfires

Detecting and imaging small wildfires with an Airborne Scanner is done against generally high background levels. The Airborne Scanner System used is a two-channel thermal IR scanner, with one channel selected for imaging the terrain and the other channel sensitive to hotter targets. If a relationship can be determined between the two channels that quantifies the background signal for hotter targets, then an algorithm can be determined that removes the background signal in that channel leaving only the fire signal. The relationship can be determined anywhere between various points in the signal processing of the radiometric data from the radiometric input to the quantized output of the system. As long as only linear operations are performed on the signal, the relationship will only depend on the system gain and offsets within the range of interest. The algorithm can be implemented either by using a look-up table or performing the calculation in the system computer. The current presentation will describe the algorithm, its derivation, and its implementation in the Firefly Wildfire Detection System by means of an off-the-shelf commercial scanner. Improvement over the previous algorithm used and the margin gained for improving the imaging of the terrain will be demonstrated.

Sleigh, William J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

CFD Assessment of Aerodynamic Degradation of a Subsonic Transport Due to Airframe Damage

A computational study is presented to assess the utility of two NASA unstructured Navier-Stokes flow solvers for capturing the degradation in static stability and aerodynamic performance of a NASA General Transport Model (GTM) due to airframe damage. The approach is to correlate computational results with a substantial subset of experimental data for the GTM undergoing progressive losses to the wing, vertical tail, and horizontal tail components. The ultimate goal is to advance the probability of inserting computational data into the creation of advanced flight simulation models of damaged subsonic aircraft in order to improve pilot training. Results presented in this paper demonstrate good correlations with slope-derived quantities, such as pitch static margin and static directional stability, and incremental rolling moment due to wing damage. This study further demonstrates that high fidelity Navier-Stokes flow solvers could augment flight simulation models with additional aerodynamic data for various airframe damage scenarios.

Frink, Neal T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Generalised Porosity Formalism for Isotropic and Anisotropic Effective Opacity and its Effects on X-ray Line Attenuation in Clumped O Star Winds

We present a generalised formalism for treating the porosity-associated reduction in continuum opacity that occurs when individual clumps in a stochastic medium become optically thick. As in previous work, we concentrate on developing bridging laws between the limits of optically thin and thick clumps. We consider geometries resulting in either isotropic or anisotropic effective opacity, and, in addition to an idealised model in which all clumps have the same local overdensity and scale, we also treat an ensemble of clumps with optical depths set by Markovian statistics. This formalism is then applied to the specific case of bound-free absorption of X- rays in hot star winds, a process not directly affected by clumping in the optically thin limit. We find that the Markov model gives surprisingly similar results to those found previously for the single clump model, suggesting that porous opacity is not very sensitive to details of the assumed clump distribution function. Further, an anisotropic effective opacity favours escape of X-rays emitted in the tangential direction (the venetian blind effect), resulting in a bump of higher flux close to line centre as compared to profiles computed from isotropic porosity models. We demonstrate how this characteristic line shape may be used to diagnose the clump geometry, and we confirm previous results that for optically thick clumping to significantly influence X-ray line profiles, very large porosity lengths, defined as the mean free path between clumps, are required. Moreover, we present the first X-ray line profiles computed directly from line-driven instability simulations using a 3-D patch method, and find that porosity effects from such models also are very small. This further supports the view that porosity has, at most, a marginal effect on X-ray line diagnostics in O stars, and therefore that these diagnostics do indeed provide a good clumping insensitive method for deriving O star mass-loss rates.

Sundqvist, Jon O.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Generalised Porosity Formalism for Isotropic and Anisotropic Effective Opacity and Its Effects on X-ray Line Attenuation in Clumped O Star Winds

We present a generalised formalism for treating the porosity-associated reduction in continuum opacity that occurs when individual clumps in a stochastic medium become optically thick. As in previous work, we concentrate on developing bridging laws between the limits of optically thin and thick clumps. We consider geometries resulting in either isotropic or anisotropic effective opacity, and, in addition to an idealised model in which all clumps have the same local overdensity and scale, we also treat an ensemble of clumps with optical depths set by Markovian statistics. This formalism is then applied to the specific case of bound-free absorption of X- rays in hot star winds, a process not directly affected by clumping in the optically thin limit. We find that the Markov model gives surprisingly similar results to those found previously for the single clump model, suggesting that porous opacity is not very sensitive to details of the assumed clump distribution function. Further, an anisotropic effective opacity favours escape of X-rays emitted in the tangential direction (the venetian blind effect), resulting in a bump of higher flux close to line centre as compared to profiles computed from isotropic porosity models. We demonstrate how this characteristic line shape may be used to diagnose the clump geometry, and we confirm previous results that for optically thick clumping to significantly influence X-ray line profiles, very large porosity lengths, defined as the mean free path between clumps, are required. Moreover, we present the first X-ray line profiles computed directly from line-driven instability simulations using a 3-D patch method, and find that porosity effects from such models also are very small. This further supports the view that porosity has, at most, a marginal effect on X-ray line diagnostics in O stars, and therefore that these diagnostics do indeed provide a good clumping insensitive method for deriving O star mass-loss rates.

generalised↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uranus Probe Entry and Descent Mission Concept

Introduction: Uranus was identified as the third highest priority flagship mission in the 2012-2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. This latest concept study was requested by the Decadal Survey panel to determine NASA’s planetary science priorities from 2022-2032. This study focused on the probe’s entry and descent aspects and associated trades for viable trajectory options. Uranus Mission and Descent Probe: The proposed Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) Flagship mission will investigate Uranus and its surrounding moons using an orbiting spacecraft with a Uranus descent probe. Unlike previous studies the probe release will occur after orbit insertion allowing sufficient separation of critical events during the orbit insertion burn. The probe will be released at an altitude that allows one hour of in situ atmospheric readings that will be relayed to the orbiter. Afterwards the orbiter will transition to the moon tour phase of the mission. The configuration chosen for the entry aeroshell was a 45° sphere-cone. This shape has been used in the past in the Pioneer Venus Galileo missions. However, the nose radius considered in the present study differed from the values used in either of the previous configurations, primarily to reduce the heat flux at the stagnation point. A two-step approach was used in the development of flight trajectories for the chosen configuration. In the first step, the trajectory code POST2 was used to screen the thousands of entry states provided by interplanetary trajectory simulations, which were terminated at an altitude of 2000 km from the reference surface (1 bar) of Uranus. The screening criteria were: (i) optimization of the communication geometry between the entry probe and orbiter to ensure at least 1 hour of science measurements, (ii) peak stagnation point pressures to be less than six bar, (iii) peak heat fluxes to be less than 5 kW/cm2; the latter two constraints being the limits of ground-test capabilities of the arc jets at NASA Ames Research Center. The entry team investigated two trajectories that met the criteria above, a shallow entry (high heat load ~44 kJ/cm2) and a steeper entry (high heat rate ~1950 W/cm2). In the second step, the two bounding candidate entry states from the POST2 screening process were used in developing flight trajectories using TRAJ coupled with FIAT (a materials thermal response and sizing code) and a margins policy to determine a margined uniform thickness (hence mass) of the forward heatshield material based on the aerothermal environments at the stagnation point. Since the combination of TRAJ and FIAT size the TPS based on stagnation point environments only, flow field computations using DPLR were necessary to determine turbulent aerothermal environments on the conical flank, and the augmentation of these environments due to surface roughness. The environments at select locations on the forward heatshield were then used to size the thermal protection material, with the largest thickness value then used to estimate the mass. The newly developed woven thermal protection material –HEEET (Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology) –was considered for the forward heatshield and PICA (Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator) was considered for the backshell. These NASA-developed materials are at TRL 6 and TRL 9, respectively. Furthermore, two options were considered for the HEEET material: (i) a dual-layer option with a denser recession layer on top and an insulative layer underneath it, and (ii) a single layer option consisting of the insulative layer alone. Results: It is clear that probe entry states are feasible and the selected TPS options are able to perform in the predicted aerothermal environments thus enabling the mission to meet of the descent probe portion of this flagship mission

Entry Descent and Landing↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of driver head pose dynamics and instantaneous driving in safety critical events: Application of computer vision in naturalistic driving

This paper investigates the role of driver behavior especially head pose dynamics in safety–critical events (SCEs). Using a large dataset collected in a naturalistic driving study, this paper analyzes the head pose dynamics and driving behavior in moments leading up to crashes or near-crashes. The study uses advanced computer vision and mixed logit modeling techniques to identify patterns and relationships between drivers’ head pose dynamics and crash involvement. The results suggest that driver-head pose dynamics, especially poses that indicate distraction and movement volatility, are important factors that can contribute to undesirable safety outcomes. Marginal effects show that angular deviation for head pose dynamics indicated by yaw, pitch and roll increase the likelihood of crash intensity by 4.56%, 4.92% and 8.26% respectively. Furthermore, traffic flow and lane changing also contribute to increase in likelihood of crash intensity. These findings provide new insights into pre-crash factors, especially human factors and safety–critical events. The study highlights the importance of considering human factors in designing driver assistance systems and developing safer vehicles. This research contributes by examining naturalistic driving data at the microscopic level with early detection of behaviors that lead to SCEs and provides a basis for future research on automation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗