Results for “Compact model” — Page 20

NASA NTRS1994

Modulating terrestrial impacts from Oort cloud comets by the adiabatically changing galactic tides

Time modulation of the flux of new Jupiter-dominated Oort cloud comets is the subject of interest here. The major perturbation of these comets during the present epoch is due to the tidal field of the relatively smooth distribution of matter in the galactic disk. A secondary source of the near-parabolic comet flux are stars penetrating the inner Oort cloud and providing impulses that create brief comet showers. Substantial stellar-induced showers occur approximately every 100 m.y. Less frequent (but stronger) impulses due to giant molecular clouds can also perturb comets from the inner cloud. These occur on timescales of approximately equal to 500 m.y. In contrast to these infrequent stochastic shower phenomena is the continuously varying tidal-induced flux due to the galaxy. As the Sun orbits the galactic center it undergoes quasiharmonic motion about the galactic midplane, which is superimposed on the small eccentricity, near-Keplerian motion in the plane having epicycle period approximately equal to 150 m.y. In the process the galactic tidal field on the Sun/cloud system will vary causing a modulation of the observable Oort cloud flux. We have created a model of the galactic matter distribution as it affects the solar motion over a time interval ranging from 300 m.y. in the past to 100 m.y. into the future. As constraints on the disk's compact dark matter component we require consistency with the following: (1) the observed galactic rotation curve, (2) today's flux distribution of new comets, (3) the studies of K-giant distributions, and (4) the periodicity found in the terrestrial cratering record. The adiabatically varying galactic tidal torque is then determined and used to predict the time dependence of the flux. We find that a model in which approximately half the disk matter is compact is consistent with these constraints. Under such circumstances the peak-to-trough flux variation will be approx. equal to 5:1 with a full width of 9 m.y. This variability will manifest in the terrestrial cratering record and is consistent with the observed cratering periodicity, if over half of the impacts on Earth are caused by comets or asteroids that originate in the outer Oort cloud.

Matese, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

X-ray nebular models

Theoretical models are presented for the temperature and ionization structure of spherically symmetric, constant density, gaseous nebulae surrounding compact X-ray sources and for the optical, UV, and X-ray spectra emerging from the nebulae. The structure is determined by assuming a local balance between heating and cooling in the gas, and the radiation field is found by solving a simplified equation of transfer. The calculations include an accurate and comprehensive treatment of the atomic processes affecting the state of the gas and the radiation field. The destruction of line radiation during resonance scattering causes models to be significantly hotter and more highly ionized than previous models of the same type. Model results are presented for a wide variety of gas densities and X-ray source spectra, scaling laws which allow these results to be generalized to a wide variety of astrophysical solutions are discussed, and column densities of multiply charged species are tabulated.

Kallman, T. R.↗

NASA NTRS1974

What is special about Cygnus X-1?

The X-ray evidence from several experiments is reviewed, with special emphasis on those characteristics which appear to distinguish Cygnus X-1 from other compact X-ray emitting objects. Data are examined within the context of a model in which millisecond bursts are superposed upon shot-noise fluctuations arising from events of durations on the order of a second. Possible spectral-temporal correlations are investigated which provide additional evidence that Cygnus X-1 is very likely a black hole.

Boldt, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Empirical relation between interstellar X-ray absorption and optical extinction

An empirical relation between interstellar X-ray absorption and optical extinction is derived from the correlation of measurements made on objects of large intrinsic diameter. The result is Av = 4.5 times 10 to the -22nd power N(H) mag, with the principal error being largely systematic in origin, where N(H) represents the column density of interstellar matter in the Brown and Gould model for the X-ray absorption coefficient. Applying this ratio to optically identified compact sources, it is concluded that sources in binary systems showing pronounced X-ray occultations have an intrinsic absorption equivalent to about 10 to the 22-nd power atoms per sq cm of interstellar matter and that there are a few compact sources where the absorption seems to be primarily interstellar in origin. The interstellar absorption expected in Cyg X-1 from the extinction of its optical counterpart is much greater than that suggested by X-ray spectra, which may be due to a soft X-ray component greater than that predicted by the power law fitted to higher energy data.

Gorenstein, P.↗

NASA NTRS1975

What is special about Cygnus X-1 - Black holes in theory and observation: X-ray observations

Of the eight X-ray sources now known which may be associated with binary stellar systems, Cygnus X-1 is the most likely candidate for being a black hole. The X-ray evidence from several experiments is reviewed, with special emphasis on those characteristics which appear to distinguish Cygnus X-1 from other compact X-ray emitting objects. Data are examined within the context of a model in which millisecond bursts (Rothschild et al., 1974) are superposed on shot-noise fluctuations (Terrell, 1972) arising from 'events' of durations on the order of a second. Possible spectral-temporal correlations are investigated which indicate new measurements that need to be made in future experiments.

Boldt, E.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A simple physical model for X-ray burst sources

In connection with information considered by Illarianov and Sunyaev (1975) and van den Heuvel (1975), a simple physical model for an X-ray burst source in the galactic disk is proposed. The model includes an unevolved OB star with a relatively weak stellar wind and a compact object in a close binary system. For some reason, the stellar wind from the OB star is unable to accrete steadily on to the compact object. When the stellar wind is sufficiently weak, the compact object accretes irregularly, leading to X-ray bursts.

Joss, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Comparison of theoretically predicted and observed Solar Maximum Mission X-ray spectra for the 1980 April 13 and May 9 flares

A method for predicting the hard X-ray spectrum in the 10-100 keV range for compact flares during their initial rise is developed on the basis of a thermal model. Observations of the flares of 1980 April 13, 4:05 U.T., and 1980 May 9, 7:12 U.T. are given and their combined spectra from the Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer and Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission are deduced. Constraints on the cross sectional area of the supposed emitting arch are obtained from data from the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer. A power-law spectrum is predicted for the rise of the flare of April 13 for initial arch densities less than 10 to the 10th per cu cm and also for the flare of May 9 for initial arch densities less than 5.4 x 10 to the 10th per cu cm. In both cases power-law spectra are observed. Limitations and implications of these results are discussed.

Smith, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Synchronously Deployable Truss Structures

Structure lightweight, readily deployed, and has reliable joints. New truss concept, designated as "pac truss," developed. Features easy deployment without need for complex mechanisms. Structures of this type deployed in free flight by controlled release of stored energy in torsional springs at selected hinges located throughout structure. Double-folding technique used in beam model applicable to flat planar trusses, allowing structures of large expanse to fold into compact packages and be deployed for space-platform applications.

Rhodes, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Dripping Handrail Model: Transient Chaos in Accretion Systems

We define and study a simple dynamical model for accretion systems, the "dripping handrail" (DHR). The time evolution of this spatially extended system is a mixture of periodic and apparently random (but actually deterministic) behavior. The nature of this mixture depends on the values of its physical parameters - the accretion rate, diffusion coefficient, and density threshold. The aperiodic component is a special kind of deterministic chaos called transient chaos. The model can simultaneously exhibit both the quasiperiodic oscillations (QPO) and very low frequency noise (VLFN) that characterize the power spectra of fluctuations of several classes of accretion systems in astronomy. For this reason, our model may be relevant to many such astrophysical systems, including binary stars with accretion onto a compact object - white dwarf, neutron star, or black hole - as well as active galactic nuclei. We describe the systematics of the DHR's temporal behavior, by exploring its physical parameter space using several diagnostics: power spectra, wavelet "scalegrams," and Lyapunov exponents. In addition, we note that for large accretion rates the DHR has periodic modes; the effective pulse shapes for these modes - evaluated by folding the time series at the known period - bear a resemblance to the similarly- determined shapes for some x-ray pulsars. The pulsing observed in some of these systems may be such periodic-mode accretion, and not due to pure rotation as in the standard pulsar model.

Young, Karl↗

NASA NTRS2019

Boson Star from Repulsive Light Scalars and Gravitational Waves

We study properties of boson stars consisting of ultra-light scalar dark matter with repulsive self-interactions. We investigate the origin of the maximum mass of spherically symmetric stable stars which emerges only when solving the full equations of motion in curved space-time, but not when solving the approximated Schrödinger-Newton equations. When the repulsion is weak, the backreaction of the curvature on the scalars acts as an additional source of attraction and can overcome the repulsion, resulting in a maximum star mass and compactness. We also point out that the potential in a UV completed particle physics model of light scalar dark matter is generally more complicated than the widely used φ 4 interaction. Additional interactions beyond φ 4 in the potential can dramatically change the properties of boson stars as well as modify the prospect of LIGO gravitational wave detection for binary mergers of boson stars.

Djuna Croon↗

NASA NTRS1985

Statistical methods for efficient design of community surveys of response to noise: Random coefficients regression models

Research studies of residents' responses to noise consist of interviews with samples of individuals who are drawn from a number of different compact study areas. The statistical techniques developed provide a basis for those sample design decisions. These techniques are suitable for a wide range of sample survey applications. A sample may consist of a random sample of residents selected from a sample of compact study areas, or in a more complex design, of a sample of residents selected from a sample of larger areas (e.g., cities). The techniques may be applied to estimates of the effects on annoyance of noise level, numbers of noise events, the time-of-day of the events, ambient noise levels, or other factors. Methods are provided for determining, in advance, how accurately these effects can be estimated for different sample sizes and study designs. Using a simple cost function, they also provide for optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the design for estimating these effects. These techniques are developed via a regression model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be random, with components of variance associated with the various stages of a multi-stage sample design.

Tomberlin, T. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS1982

Gravitational spin precession in binary systems

The precessional behavior of a binary system is modeled along the lines of one orbital angular and two spin angular non-dissipatively coupled momenta. It is found that the precessional behavior consists of a periodic nutation superimposed on an overall precession of the system about the axis of total angular momentum. A periodic nutation, superimposed on an overall precession of the system about the axis of total angular momentum, is found to characterize system behavior. It is also shown that the nutation associated with precession in such compact object-containing binaries as the PSR 1913+16 pulsar and the Martin and Rees (1979) model of SS 433 will generally be too small to be observable.

Hamilton, A. J. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Antarctic Firn Compaction Rates from Repeat-Track Airborne Radar Data: I. Methods

While measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change are increasingly used to assess mass change, the processes that control the elevation fluctuations not related to ice-flow dynamics (e.g. firn compaction and accumulation) remain difficult to measure. Here we use radar data from the Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) catchment to measure the rate of thickness change between horizons of constant age over different time intervals: 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2009-11. The average compaction rate to approximately 25m depth is 0.33ma(exp -1), with largest compaction rates near the surface. Our measurements indicate that the accumulation rate controls much of the spatio-temporal variations in the compaction rate while the role of temperature is unclear due to a lack of measurements. Based on a semi-empirical, steady-state densification model, we find that surveying older firn horizons minimizes the potential bias resulting from the variable depth of the constant age horizon. Our results suggest that the spatiotemporal variations in the firn compaction rate are an important consideration when converting surface elevation change to ice mass change. Compaction rates varied by up to 0.12ma(exp -1) over distances less than 6km and were on average greater than 20% larger during the 2010-11 interval than during 2009-10.

polar firn↗

NASA NTRS1991

Compact starbursts in ultraluminous infrared galaxies

The 40 ultraluminous galaxies in the IRAS Bright Galaxy Sample of sources stronger than S = 5.24 Jy at lambda = 60 microns were mapped with approximately 0.25 arcsec resolution at 8.44 GHz. Twenty-five contain diffuse radio sources obeying the FIR-radio correlation; these are almost certainly starburst galaxies. Fourteen other galaxies have nearly blackbody FIR spectra with color temperatures between 60 and 80 K so their (unmeasured) FIR angular sizes must exceed approximately 0.25 arcsec, yet they contain compact (but usually resolved) radio sources smaller than this limit. The unique radio and FIR properties of these galaxies can be modeled by ultraluminous nuclear starbursts so dense that they 67 are optically thick to free-free absorption at about 1.49 GHz and dust absorption at about 25 microns. Only one galaxy (UGC 08058 = Mrk 231) is a dominated by a variable radio source too compact to be an ultraluminous starburst; it must be powered by a 'monster'.

Condon, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An optimist's guide to supernovae

There are some hints that a satisfactory agreement between observations and models is developing in several areas of supernova research. The light curves and spectra of Type I supernovae look so much like the models that they may well have their origin in the synthesis of Ni-56 in the explosion of a compact star. Type II supernovae are found where massive stars form, have light curves that correspond to 10 to the 51st ergs suddenly deposited inside a red supergiant, and may in fact be the explosions of massive stars. Some young supernova remnants, such as Cas A, show abundance patterns that bear a striking resemblance to those seen deep inside models of massive stars on the verge of destruction. Observations of old supernova remnants provide energy estimate of 10 to the 51st ergs - just the amount needed for the models of the outbursts.

Kirshner, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The symmetric turbulent plane wake downstream of a sharp trailing edge

The analysis and modeling of the symmetric turbulent plane wake downstream of a sharp trailing edge is addressed. A compact description of the flow near the trailing edge is formulated using the results of a previous asymptotic analysis. The new description retains the two-layered structure identified in the previous work, and it clarifies the principal dynamics of the flow in the near-wake outer layer, away from the wake centerline. For zero-pressure-gradient flow, the near-wake outer layer is shown to be represented to leading order by the similarity solution that governs the outer region of the surface boundary layer. The leading perturbation in the outer layer due to the developing near-wake inner-layer flow is identified, and this is shown to be asymptotically smaller than undetermined higher-order terms associated with the surface boundary-layer flow. Results of the new near-wake analysis are used to formulate an algebraic eddy viscosity model for wake flow predictions at arbitrary distances from the trailing edge. The model is used in a numerical solution of the boundary layer equations, and computed velocity and Reynolds stress profiles are shown to compare well with experimental data.

Bogucz, E. A.↗