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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1974

Computational aspects of maximum likelihood estimation and reduction in sensitivity function calculations

This paper discusses numerical aspects of computing maximum likelihood estimates for linear dynamical systems in state-vector form. Different gradient-based nonlinear programming methods are discussed in a unified framework and their applicability to maximum likelihood estimation is examined. The problems due to singular Hessian or singular information matrix that are common in practice are discussed in detail and methods for their solution are proposed. New results on the calculation of state sensitivity functions via reduced order models are given. Several methods for speeding convergence and reducing computation time are also discussed.

Gupta, N. K.↗

NASA NTRS2024

System Engineering & Integration (SE&I) In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Modeling and Analysis (SIMA)

NASA developed a flexible system modeling framework of integrated ISRU and ISRU related subsystem models: MAIT (Mission Analysis & Integration Tool) that enables point solutions, optimization, and/or parametric studies at the system level to predict mission architecture mass, power, and volume and provides accessible consolidated database that categorizes specific ISRU and ISRU related subsystem variables common between NASA & industry. Directly and indirectly addresses multiple STMD shortfalls: - ISRU-581 - ‘ISRU System Modeling’: Establish a modular end-to-end ISRU system modeling & analysis capability by leveraging and evolving prior, on-going, and future investments - More than an ISRU system modeling tool, MAIT integrates power, excavation, Environmental Control & Life Support System (ECLSS), Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) liquification, & compares surface ops & environments, to assist in the closure of other related ISRU shortfalls Adheres to governing NASA procedures for Models & Simulations (NASA-HDBK-7009) & AIAA standards for Mass Properties Control for Space Systems.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Guided Resilience Self Assessment Application

Reliable electricity access is vital for everything from hospitals to national security. When grid disturbances occur, it is crucial to minimize the amount of time it takes to recover. Grid resiliency considers both the preparation for and recovery from high-impact low-frequency disturbances (HILF) such as weather events and cyber attacks. The Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) funds the multi-laboratory Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Control Launchpad (MIRACL) project to investigate technologies to support and grow distributed wind. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) contribute to resilience and cybersecurity efforts for the project, and have produced a resilience framework to evaluate system resilience based on individual system specifications. In order to make this framework easy for anyone to apply, I have coded a web application that allows users to input their power system qualities, goals, and perceived risks and then receive suggestions on how to improve their grid resiliency. The web application follows the seven steps in the planning stage of the framework process, allowing the user to input information about their grid and select from common goals, metrics, and hazards, as well as add their own. The application currently provides information about how to complete each step, requiring minimal prior knowledge of the framework. Future work for this application will include allowing the user to submit line drawings of their system and incorporate modeling tools so that the hazard simulations of applying the framework is completed for the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DESI DR1 Peculiar Velocity Survey: Growth Rate Measurements from the Galaxy Power Spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios where the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as $fσ_8$, is extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models and parameter-fitting framework have been tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques are then applied to analyze the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey, and the fit result of the growth rate is $fσ_8=0.440^{+0.080}_{-0.096}$ at effective redshift $z_{\rm eff}=0.07$. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation and power spectrum, yields a consensus value of $fσ_8(z_{\rm eff}=0.07) = 0.450 ^{+0.055}_{-0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain $γ=0.580^{+0.110}_{-0.110}$, $Ω_\mathrm{m}=0.301^{+0.011}_{-0.011}$ and $σ_8=0.834^{+0.032}_{-0.032}$. The measured $fσ_8$ and $γ$ are consistent with the prediction of the $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter Model and General Relativity.

Qin, F. [Marseille, CPPM] (ORCID:0000000179507864)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Convectively Forced Diurnal Gravity Waves in the Maritime Continent

Long-lived, zonally propagating diurnal rainfall disturbances are a highly pronounced and common feature in the Maritime Continent (MC). A recent study argues that these disturbances can be explained as diurnally phase-locked gravity waves. Here we explore the origins of these waves through regional cloud-permitting numerical model experiments. The gravity waves are reproduced and isolated in the model framework through the combined use of realistic geography and diurnally cyclic lateral boundary conditions representative of both characteristic easterly and westerly background zonal flow regimes. These flow regimes are characteristic of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) suppressed and active phase in the MC, respectively. Tests are conducted wherein Borneo, Sumatra, or both islands and/or their orography are removed. These tests imply that the diurnal gravity waves are excited and maintained directly by latent heating from the vigorous mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that form nocturnally in both Borneo and Sumatra. Removing orography has only a secondary impact on both the MCSs and the gravity waves, implying that it is not critical to these waves. We therefore hypothesize that diurnal gravity waves are fundamentally driven by mesoscale organized deep convection, and are only sensitive to orography to the measure that the convection is affected by the orography and its mesoscale flows. Factor separation further reveals that the nonlinear interaction of synchronized diurnal cycles in Sumatra and Borneo slightly amplifies this gravity wave mode compared to if either island existed in isolation. This nonlinear feedback appears most prominently at longitudes directly between the two islands.

Ruppert, Jr., James H.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗

DOE OSTI2024

New systems in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) serves as a common library of classes between applications developed for advanced reactor analysis, fusion device engineering, spent fuel cask analysis, geochemistry studies, among other fields. These applications drive the development of the framework to meet their needs. Systems in MOOSE group capabilities that share a common purpose and generally common code. They can be leveraged by all downstream applications, providing extensive code re-use and shared maintenance. They facilitate the discovery by new users of the classes meeting at least partially their needs, and offer the same opportunities for customization as other systems. The addition of a new system to MOOSE opens new ways of solving or discretizing nonlinear problems, of performing distributed postprocessing, and a plethora of other needs. While new systems can be introduced in downstream applications rather than at the framework level, the framework team monitors common needs across the community and often triggers their addition. Documentation, training material, development needs can be centralized, limiting duplicated work across the community. The last three years have seen a large expansion in the capabilities of MOOSE. The supporting role of the framework in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has created numerous feature requests to support neutronics, thermal hydraulics, computational fluid dynamics and thermo-mechanics simulations in the Griffin, SAM, Pronghorn and Bison applications respectively. Similarly, laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) projects in additive manufacturing, high-Reynolds flow simulations, structure optimization also necessitate an expansion of the framework capabilities. This summary reports on the new systems created in MOOSE, their design, their capabilities and some of the relevant interfaces.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Source-to-Source Automatic Differentiation of OpenMP Parallel Loops

This article presents our work toward correct and efficient automatic differentiation of OpenMP parallel worksharing loops in forward and reverse mode. Automatic differentiation is a method to obtain gradients of numerical programs, which are crucial in optimization, uncertainty quantification, and machine learning. The computational cost to compute gradients is a common bottleneck in practice. For applications that are parallelized for multicore CPUs or GPUs using OpenMP, one also wishes to compute the gradients in parallel. Here, we propose a framework to reason about the correctness of the generated derivative code, from which we justify our OpenMP extension to the differentiation model. We implement this model in the automatic differentiation tool Tapenade and present test cases that are differentiated following our extended differentiation procedure. Performance of the generated derivative programs in forward and reverse mode is better than sequential, although our reverse mode often scales worse than the input programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Technologies for unattended network operations

The necessary network management functions for a telecommunications, navigation and information management (TNIM) system in the framework of an extension of the ISO model for communications network management are described. Various technologies that could substantially reduce the need for TNIM network management, automate manpower intensive functions, and deal with synchronization and control at interplanetary distances are presented. Specific technologies addressed include the use of the ISO Common Management Interface Protocol, distributed artificial intelligence for network synchronization and fault management, and fault-tolerant systems engineering.

Jaworski, Allan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Advancing the Standards for Unmanned Air System Communications, Navigation and Surveillance

Under NASA program NNA16BD84C, new architectures were identified and developed for supporting reliable and secure Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) needs for Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) operating in both controlled and uncontrolled airspace. An analysis of architectures for the two categories of airspace and an implementation technology readiness analysis were performed. These studies produced NASA reports that have been made available in the public domain and have been briefed in previous conferences. We now consider how the products of the study are influencing emerging directions in the aviation standards communities. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Communications Panel (CP), Working Group I (WG-I) is currently developing a communications network architecture known as the Aeronautical Telecommunications Network with Internet Protocol Services (ATN/IPS). The target use case for this service is secure and reliable Air Traffic Management (ATM) for manned aircraft operating in controlled airspace. However, the work is more and more also considering the emerging class of airspace users known as Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS), which refers to certain UAS classes. In addition, two Special Committees (SCs) in the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) are developing Minimum Aviation System Performance Standards (MASPS) and Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS. RTCA SC-223 is investigating an Internet Protocol Suite (IPS) and AeroMACS aviation data link for interoperable (INTEROP) UAS communications. Meanwhile, RTCA SC-228 is working to develop Detect And Avoid (DAA) equipment and a Command and Control (C2) Data Link MOPS establishing LBand and C-Band solutions. These RTCA Special Committees along with ICAO CP WG/I are therefore overlapping in terms of the Communication, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) alternatives they are seeking to provide for an integrated manned- and unmanned air traffic management service as well as remote pilot command and control. This paper presents UAS CNS architecture concepts developed under the NASA program that apply to all three of the aforementioned committees. It discusses the similarities and differences in the problem spaces under consideration in each committee, and considers the application of a common set of CNS alternatives that can be widely applied. As the works of these committees progress, it is clear that the overlap will need to be addressed to ensure a consistent and safe framework for worldwide aviation. In this study, we discuss similarities and differences in the various operational models and show how the CNS architectures developed under the NASA program apply.

Ponchak, Denise S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Towards Test Driven Development for Computational Science with pFUnit

Developers working in Computational Science & Engineering (CSE)/High Performance Computing (HPC) must contend with constant change due to advances in computing technology and science. Test Driven Development (TDD) is a methodology that mitigates software development risks due to change at the cost of adding comprehensive and continuous testing to the development process. Testing frameworks tailored for CSE/HPC, like pFUnit, can lower the barriers to such testing, yet CSE software faces unique constraints foreign to the broader software engineering community. Effective testing of numerical software requires a comprehensive suite of oracles, i.e., use cases with known answers, as well as robust estimates for the unavoidable numerical errors associated with implementation with finite-precision arithmetic. At first glance these concerns often seem exceedingly challenging or even insurmountable for real-world scientific applications. However, we argue that this common perception is incorrect and driven by (1) a conflation between model validation and software verification and (2) the general tendency in the scientific community to develop relatively coarse-grained, large procedures that compound numerous algorithmic steps.We believe TDD can be applied routinely to numerical software if developers pursue fine-grained implementations that permit testing, neatly side-stepping concerns about needing nontrivial oracles as well as the accumulation of errors. We present an example of a successful, complex legacy CSE/HPC code whose development process shares some aspects with TDD, which we contrast with current and potential capabilities. A mix of our proposed methodology and framework support should enable everyday use of TDD by CSE-expert developers.

pFUnit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unification of finite symmetries in the simulation of many-body systems on quantum computers

Symmetry is fundamental in the description and simulation of quantum systems. Leveraging symmetries in classical simulations of many-body quantum systems can result in significant overhead due to the exponentially growing size of some symmetry groups as the number of particles increases. Quantum computers hold the promise of achieving exponential speedup in simulating quantum many-body systems; however, a general method for utilizing symmetries in quantum simulations has not yet been established. In this work, we present a unified framework for incorporating symmetry group transforms on quantum computers to simulate many-body systems. The core of our approach lies in the development of efficient quantum circuits for symmetry-adapted projection onto irreducible representations of a group or pairs of commuting groups. We provide resource estimations for common groups, including the cyclic and permutation groups. Our algorithms demonstrate the capability to prepare coherent superpositions of symmetry-adapted states and to perform quantum evolution across a wide range of models in condensed-matter physics and ab initio electronic structure in quantum chemistry. Specifically, we execute a symmetry-adapted quantum subroutine for small molecules in first-quantization on noisy hardware and demonstrate the emulation of symmetry-adapted quantum phase estimation for preparing coherent superpositions of quantum states in various irreducible representations of a symmetry group. In addition, we present a discussion of open problems regarding treating symmetries in digital quantum simulations of many-body systems, paving the way for future systematic investigations into leveraging symmetries quantumly for practical quantum advantage. The broad applicability and rigorous resource estimation for symmetry transformations make our framework appealing for achieving provable quantum advantage on fault-tolerant quantum computers, especially for symmetry-related properties.

quantum algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surviving nanoscale interfacial stability in extreme thermal expansion contrast Zn(CN) 2 -epoxy resin matrix composites

Here, we report the remarkable stability at the nanoscale matrix-filler interface in a series of overall low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) zinc cyanide (ZC)/epoxy resin composites. These interfaces demonstrate the stability of highly contrasting materials. These composites are designed to optimize the properties of both materials: epoxy resins are valued for their high strength, superb chemical resistance, low dielectric properties, and adhesive abilities. ZC, a model flexible framework, exhibits negative thermal expansion (NTE) behavior and compensates for the epoxy resin’s detrimentally large thermal expansion values. Filled resins minimize the native 65 ppm/°C CTE values to 19 ppm/° C over a wide temperature range while maintaining linearity, yielding composites compatible with typical metal and ceramic substrates’—commonly bonded to the resin— 0–20 ppm/° C CTE values. Additionally, with significant intrinsic differences in the materials, we use wide-angle X-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy to elucidate thermal movement. The ZC/epoxy interface is surprisingly resilient over 1,000 cycles between -55° C and 75° C, extremes typical to aerospace applications. Further, we show that the resin viscosity remains less than 21 Pa*s at up to 30 vol% ZC, an important consideration for workability. We also discuss settling distribution, glass transition temperature, flexural strength, and longevity. All results point favorably towards practical implementation in low thermal expansion application needs: filling the gap in component design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global Explainability of A Deep Abstaining Classifier for Cancer Pathology Reports

We present a global explainability method to characterize sources of errors in a real-world multitask deep abstaining classifier (DAC), in the context of cancer histology prediction. Our multitask classifier, currently deployed for automated annotation of cancer pathology reports from NCI-SEER registries, was trained and evaluated on 1.04 million hand-annotated samples and makes simultaneous predictions of cancer site, subsite, histology, laterality, and behavior for each report. The DAC framework enables the model to abstain on ambiguous reports and confusing classes to achieve the target accuracy on the retained (non-abstained) samples, but at the cost of decreased coverage. Requiring 97% accuracy on the histology task caused our model to retain only 22% of all samples, mostly the less ambiguous and common classes. Local explainability with the GradInp technique provided a computationally efficient way of obtaining contextual reasoning for hundreds of thousands of individual predictions. Our method, involving dimensionality reduction of approximately 13000 aggregated local explanations (ALE), offers a tractable path to true global explainability. It enabled identification of sources of errors in histology classification, globally, as hierarchical complexity among classes, label noise, insufficient information, and conflicting evidence. This suggests several strategies for iterative improvement of our DAC, including well-designed exclusion criteria, focused annotation, and reduced penalties for errors involving hierarchically related classes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Generalized Approach to Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Supervised Deep Learning

As research advances diverse forms and missions of aircraft, the National Airspace System (NAS) will become increasingly crowded, limiting current communications resources to accommodate aviation operations. Ongoing research proposes a paradigm of airspace communications, such that resources are autonomously and dynamically allocated via intelligent agents; this allocation requires accurate representations of the NAS, including the predicted positions of aircraft. State-of-the-art research emphasizes the importance of a hybrid-recurrent framework for trajectory prediction and compares the impact of commonly considered weather data on prediction accuracy. However, current research has been limited in its scope of efforts, frequently utilizing a unique flight route, architecture, set of weather data, and date range. This article considers the challenges of generalizing hybrid-recurrent predictive models for flight trajectories. Results illustrate an increase in error variance when identical models are trained over a generalized set of flights; this may be mitigated with careful tuning of hyperparameters, both in the network structure and optimization algorithms. Even so, an irreducible vertical error was identified, resulting from the complex takeoff and landing procedures which can not be correlated to functions of weather or additional assumptions of aircraft behavior. Finally, the use of a test route indicates that generalized models still do not possess sufficient knowledge for general aircraft predictions, with mean error increases ranging from 70-500%. These results illustrate the need for continued efforts on improving model versatility, as well as potential limitations for spectrum allocation near airports and other centers.

Nathan Schimpf↗