Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “COST ESTIMATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technoeconomic Evaluation of Microreactor Using Detailed Bottom-up Estimate (Rev.1)

Microreactors are a novel class of nuclear reactors that are expected to be factory produced, transportable, and self-regulating. They are expected to be several orders of magnitude smaller in size than traditional reactors (with power outputs in the 1–20 MWe range typically). They are primarily envisaged to target niche, remote markets that are difficult to access and where energy costs are high. There has been a scarcity of technoeconomic assessment for these types of reactors due to the scarcity of designs without proprietary restraints (e.g., those that include balance of plants and building layouts) and cost estimates. The primary objective of this report was to develop a transparent, detailed, bottom-up cost estimate for a microreactor. While there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the projected costs, this work provides a foundation that can built upon and improved to better model the economics of microreactors. The Microreactor Applications Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor was selected for this analysis. This Department of Energy–sponsored demonstration was chosen because (1) its final design was recently completed and (2) a detailed class-3 cost-and-schedule estimation was conducted for it. This provided a strong technical basis for further analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Refractory Materials for Flame Deflector Protection System Corrosion Control: Flame Deflector Protection System Life Cycle Cost Analysis Report

A 20-year life cycle cost analysis was performed to compare the operational life cycle cost, processing/turnaround timelines, and operations manpower inspection/repair/refurbishment requirements for corrosion protection of the Kennedy Space Center launch pad flame deflector associated with the existing cast-in-place materials and a newer advanced refractory ceramic material. The analysis compared the estimated costs of(1) continuing to use of the current refractory material without any changes; (2) completely reconstructing the flame trench using the current refractory material; and (3) completely reconstructing the flame trench with a new high-performance refractory material. Cost estimates were based on an analysis of the amount of damage that occurs after each launch and an estimate of the average repair cost. Alternative 3 was found to save $32M compared to alternative 1 and $17M compared to alternative 2 over a 20-year life cycle.

Calle, Luz Marina↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Capital Cost Scaling Methodology: Revision 4b Report

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) regularly updates legacy analysis with new studies and cases as the Department of Energy objectives change, technology performance improves, costs are reduced, regulations change, market drivers are established, fuel prices fluctuate, and any number of other relevant factors vary in the market. As legacy studies are updated by NETL, the underlying performance and cost of the cases presented changes, and as such, the methods for interpreting and scaling the cost estimates change. Therefore, it is important that NETL maintain public guidance documents associated with different sets of cost estimates that delineate how a specific set, based on report vintage and/or year published, should be scaled. This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies report, providing guidance on capital cost scaling, should generally be applied to NETL case costs included in the report “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity Revision 4b,” (NETL, 2025) or any cases derived from the cases presented in the referenced report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design, scaling and cost evaluations of circulating fluidized-bed systems for biomass pyrolysis

To generate updated and transparent capital cost estimates for biomass fast pyrolysis equipment, refinery fluidized catalytic cracking design and sizing principles are examined and extended to pyrolysis of woody biomass. Capital costs for the sized equipment are estimated with process-industry software. A one-dimensional flow simulation with pyrolysis kinetics is leveraged to validate the fluidization conditions and thermal energy balance. After successful sizing and a system cost estimate of $\$$2.8 M (in 2016 US$\$$) at the biorefinery scale of 1000 metric tons per day (MTD), these methods were exercised for even smaller equipment at the distributed pyrolysis scale with modifications to the process design constraints, and not directly comparable with the 1000 MTD case, arriving at capital cost estimates of $\$$1.2 M for a 500 ton/day system and $\$$0.9 M for a 200 ton/day system. Here in this work, It is noted that this work only estimates purchased equipment costs at the ±50% accuracy level; there are significant other custom factors applicable to each installation based on location, maturity, scale, complexities during installation, engineering and licensing costs, etc. that need to be added on to these estimates to derive investment costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1978

SCATS: SRB Cost Accounting and Tracking System handbook

The Solid Rocket Booster Cost Accounting and Tracking System (SCATS) which is an automatic data processing system designed to keep a running account of the number, description, and estimated cost of Level 2, 3, and 4 changes is described. Although designed specifically for the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Program, the ADP system can be used for any other program that has a similar structure for recording, reporting, and summing numbers and costs of changes. The program stores the alpha-numeric designators for changes, government estimated costs, proposed costs, and negotiated value in a MIRADS (Marshall Information Retrieval and Display System) format which permits rapid access, manipulation, and reporting of current change status. Output reports listing all changes, totals of each level, and totals of all levels, can be derived for any calendar interval period.

Zorv, R. B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the cost and energy demand of producing lithium manganese oxide for Li-ion batteries

Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) is one of the important cathode active materials used in lithium ion batteries of several electric vehicles. In this paper, the production of LMO cathode material for use in lithium-ion batteries is studied. Spreadsheet-based process models have been set up to estimate and analyze the factors affecting the cost of manufacturing, the energy demand, and the environmental impact. Two processes based on the solid-state synthesis method and a sol-gel method have been explored. Results show that the solid-state process is more cost-effective because of its lower cost of raw materials. The production cost for a solid-state process is $7 kg -1 and requires 6 kWh·kg -1 of energy. The pack level cost of electric vehicle battery using LMO as a primary active material is studied as a function of LMO production cost and other parameters. The potential for reducing the cost of automotive batteries to $100 per kWh is explored in terms of LMO price and plant production volume (economy of scale), using Argonne’s BatPaC spreadsheet tool.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modeling the Deep Space Network costs for future space missions by using major cost drivers

This paper develops a cost model to do long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The model is a function of eight major mission cost drivers such as uplink frequency upgrade, telemetry upgrade, and antenna gain/noise temperature upgrade. This paper focuses on the costs required to modify and/or enhance the DSN to prepare for supporting future space missions. Two models are derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. Model A makes it possible to estimate the total cost, and Model B makes it possible to estimate the time profile cost and total cost for DSN support of a similar future space mission. The models were back tested against the total cost and the time profile cost for DSN support of the three projects, and gave cost estimates which range from 17 percent below to 19 percent above actual costs for Model A, and 22.5 percent below to 17.5 percent above for Model B. The total cost Model A was also applied to estimate the total costs for DSN support of two other independent projects: Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS later became Voyager), and Viking. This model gave total cost estimates for DSN support which range from 15 percent to 4 percent above actual total costs for MJS and Viking, respectively.

Remer, Donald S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Parametric Cost Deployment

Parametric cost analysis is a mathematical approach to estimating cost. Parametric cost analysis uses non-cost parameters, such as quality characteristics, to estimate the cost to bring forth, sustain, and retire a product. This paper reviews parametric cost analysis and shows how it can be used within the cost deployment process.

Dean, Edwin B.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Government conceptual estimating for contracting and management

The use of the Aerospace Price Book, a cost index, and conceptual cost estimating for cost-effective design and construction of space facilities is discussed. The price book consists of over 200 commonly used conceptual elements and 100 systems summaries of projects such as launch pads, processing facilities, and air locks. The cost index is composed of three divisions: (1) bid summaries of major Shuttle projects, (2) budget cost data sheets, and (3) cost management summaries; each of these divisions is described. Conceptual estimates of facilities and ground support equipment are required to provide the most probable project cost for budget, funding, and project approval purposes. Similar buildings, systems, and elements already designed are located in the cost index in order to make the best rough order of magnitude conceptual estimates for development of Space Shuttle facilities. An example displaying the applicability of the conceptual cost estimating procedure for the development of the KSC facilities is presented.

Brown, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

LISA and NASA's Physics of the Cosmos Theme

In the past year, the LISA Project at NASA has completed a major review and has thoroughly reviewed its cost estimates. This talk will summarize the conclusions of the Beyond Einstein Program Assessment, and review the main conclusions of the cost estimation work done at NASA, including reduced mission concepts. Astro2010, the decadal review which sets priorities for astronomy and astrophysics projects in the U.S., is getting organized. Preparing for and participating in Astro2010 will be a crucial activity for the NASA side of the LISA Project in thc next 18 months.

Stebbins, Robin T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Supporting Documents 2 Production Based Costing

The purpose of this section is to outline a method of cost analysis whereby a significantly better representation of “should achieve” costs may be attained for NOAK systems. Based on economists’ notions of producer theory, and grounded in the cost analysts’ and project managers’ tool called the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), this section describes best practices in cost estimation. It then illustrates how the Code of Accounts (COA) structure, developed by the Economic Modeling Working Group (EMWG) of the Generation IV International Forum in “Cost Estimating Guidelines for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems [EMWG 2007] (hereafter “Gen IV Guidelines Document”), can be used to differentiate “should achieve” versus “did experience” costs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of the NLR Pumped Storage Hydropower Cost Model

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) first released its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model in 2023 as the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The PSH cost model cannot replace detailed site-level studies and design, but it is important to validate it against other industry PSH cost estimates. The initial model methodology report validated the cost model for a single proposed site, the Eagle Mountain Project in California. This slide deck documents an expanded validation exercise using cost data from six other sites: Goldendale (Washington), Seminoe (Wyoming), Gordon Butte (Montana), Swan Lake (Oregon), White Pine (Oregon), and Lewis Ridge (Kentucky). It compares itemized costs from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) applications and other reported costs with NLR PSH cost model outputs after customizing inputs for each site. The validation exercise finds that the NLR model's conservative indirect cost assumptions often drive overall cost overestimation, with direct cost comparisons typically agreeing more closely. All cost model estimates are well within an Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Class 5 estimation range (-50% to +100%), with five within the AACE Class 4 range (-30% to +50%) and four being within 15%. This result is considered reasonable performance for a parametric model applied at a preliminary design stage.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mercury Lander: A Planetary Mission Concept Study for the 2023–2032 Decadal Survey

Mercury holds unique clues to the distribution of elements at the birth of the solar system and how planets form and evolve in close proximity to their host stars. The Mercury Lander mission concept returns in situ measurements to: understand Mercury’s unique mineralogy and geochemistry; characterize the massive core’s structure; measure the planet’s active and ancient magnetic fields at the surface; investigate the processes that alter the surface and produce the exosphere; and provide groundtruth for remote datasets. The mission concept achieves one Mercury year (~88 Earth days) of surface operations with an 11-instrument, high-heritage payload delivered to a landing site within Mercury’s widely distributed low-reflectance material, and addresses science goals encompassing geochemistry, geophysics, the Mercury space environment, and geology. The spacecraft launches on an expendable SpaceX Falcon Heavy in 2035. The four-stage flight system uses a solar-electric propulsion cruise stage to reach Mercury in2045. The orbital stage brings the spacecraft into a thermally safe orbit, then performs orbital maneuvers to prepare for descent. During the orbital phase, a narrow-angle camera acquires images for selecting a low-hazard landing zone within our region of interest. The descent stage begins the braking burn ~120 s before landing. The lander continues to touchdown, using continuous LIDAR operations to support hazard detection and safely deliver the payload to the surface. Landing is at dusk to meet thermal requirements, permitting ~30 hours of sunlight for initial observations. The radioisotope-powered lander continues operations through the Mercury night. Direct-to-Earth communication is possible for the initial three weeks of landed operations, drops out for six weeks, and resumes for the final month. Thermal conditions exceed lander operating temperatures shortly after sunrise, ending operations. A total of ~11 GB of data are returned to Earth. The Phase A–D mission cost estimate (50% unencumbered reserves, excluding launch vehicle) is $1.2 B(FY25$), comparing favorably with past New Frontiers missions and to the cost cap in the New Frontiers4 call(~$1.1B FY25$). This cost estimate shows that a Mercury Lander mission is feasible and compelling as a New Frontiers-class mission in the coming decade.

C M Ernst↗