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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Conceptual Design and Rationale for a New Agrivoltaics Concept: Pastured-Raised Rabbits and Solar Farming

Land-use conflicts created by the growth of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be mitigated by applying the concept of agrivoltaics, that is, the co-development of land for both PV and agricultural purposes, to commercial-scale solar installations. In this study, we present a conceptual design for a novel agrivoltaic system based on pasture-fed rabbit farming and provide the technical, environmental and economic analyses to demonstrate the viability of the concept. Included in our analysis are the economic advantages to the PV operator of grazing rabbits at a density sufficient to control vegetative growth, thus reducing the economic and environmental costs of mowing; the dual-revenue stream from the sale of both rabbits and electricity, contrasted with estimates of the capital-investment costs for rabbits co-located with, and also independent of, PV; and the economic value to the rabbit farmer of higher colony-growth rates (made possible by the shading and predator protection provided by the PV arrays and of reduced fencing costs, which are the largest capital cost, by being able to leverage the PV systems for rabbit fencing. We also provide an environmental analysis that suggests that rabbit-PV farming is a pathway to a measurable reduction in agriculturally-generated greenhouse-gas emissions. Here, our calculations indicate that the co-location of solar and rabbit farms is a viable form of agrivoltaics, increasing overall site revenue by 2.5%-24.0% above projected electricity revenue depending on location and rental/ownership of rabbits, while providing a high-value agricultural product that, on a per weight basis, has significantly less environmental impact than cattle.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost estimation of balance of plant equipment scale up for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer systems

Water electrolyzers that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen could be a key technology for increasing hydrogen supply to meet expanded and emerging market applications, although currently the capital costs of these electrolyzers are high. Here we examine cost reductions that might be achieved by scaling up proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems and leveraging economies of scale through balance of plant (BOP) components for system sizes between 1 MW and 1 GW. We estimate BOP equipment capital costs of about $\$$848/kW at 1 MW, potentially decreasing to $\$$87/kW at 1 GW (2022-dollar year basis) with most of the cost reduction happening as systems scale from 1 MW to 100 MW. We find that BOP subsystems hydrogen drying and water knockout benefited the most from economies-of-scale cost reductions, and piping, instrumentation, and housing and power electronics were less impacted. These cost reductions from economies of scale could be more significant than estimated cost reductions from manufacturing scale-up reported in literature. These results add to the knowledge base that could guide optimal system designs that balance process scale-up with plant modularization and numbering-up. We also estimate that scaling up BOP could potentially lower the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by $\$$1.7-$\$$4.6/kg, depending on the scale-up magnitude and the plant capacity factor.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2019

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Megawatt-Scale Thermoplastic Resin Wind Turbine Blade

Two-part, in-situ reactive thermoplastic resin systems for composite wind turbine blades have the potential to lower the blade cost by decreasing cycle times, capital costs of both tooling and equipment, and energy consumption during manufacturing, and enabling recycling at the end of the blade life. This paper describes a techno-economic model used to estimate the cost of a thermoplastic wind turbine blade relative to a baseline thermoset epoxy blade. It was shown that a 61.5-m thermoplastic blade costs 4.7% less than an equivalent epoxy blade. Even though the thermoplastic resin is currently more expensive than epoxy, this cost reduction is primarily driven by the decreased capital costs, faster cycle times, and reduced energy requirements and labor costs. Although thermoplastic technology for resin infusion of wind turbine blades is relatively new, these results suggest that it is economically and technically feasible and warrants further research.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of performance metrics for the Wave Energy Prize converters tested at 1/20 th scale

It is expected that wave energy technologies will play a future role in providing clean renewable energy and diversifying energy portfolios; however, they are still at an early stage of development compared to other renewables, with varying archetypes proposed. As technologies advance toward commercialization, benchmarking is needed to quantify performance and costs. In this review, experimental datasets of Wave Energy Converter (WEC) devices tested in the final stage of the Wave Energy Prize (WEPrize) are compared and ranked using performance metrics found in the literature and those developed as WEPrize judging metrics at both U.S. and European representative wave climates. Because the WEPrize devices were tested under a set of identical sea states, which ranged from typical operating conditions to extreme storm events, consistent datasets were produced to facilitate comparison. This allows for a rare addition to the open literature on device performance trends. In addition, a reevaluation of trends established in previous power performance benchmarking studies is given. Trends found in previous studies were confirmed, except for the absorbed energy per characteristic mass metric, in which some of the WEPrize devices had higher values. Each of the metrics considered in this study has limitations due to the assumptions in simplifying the economic potential (e.g., power absorbed vs. a proxy to cost). In addition, each of these proxies is limited to the capital cost of a device, unlike the final metric used in the WEPrize, HPQ, which includes limited proxies of operational and capital expenditures, as well as array considerations. Recommendations are given for the use and potential modification of the metrics considered. Specifically, it is recommended that the ACE metric (from the WEPrize) be modified to more accurately include the other important system costs, such as the PTO and mooring, as well as installation, operation and maintenance costs.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Costs of mitigating the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States

Developers are required to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States (U.S.) but there is very little accessible information on the associated costs. This work compiles and analyses a dataset of environmental impacts mitigation costs for 182 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The analysis shows that environmental costs vary wildly across hydropower project classes and mitigation measures, even when normalized by plant capacity. Capital costs per kilowatt are generally higher for relicensed conventional hydropower plants, and lower for new and relicensed pumped storage hydropower plants, relative to other project classes. Smaller plants tend to spend a higher share of total project costs on mitigating environmental impacts than larger plants, and measures related to Aquatic Species, Project Operations, and Recreation have the highest capital cost per kilowatt. These findings mean that environmental costs could become a key decision variable for new hydropower developments in the U.S. due to the small scale of most of the remaining potential and the increasing stringency of environmental requirements. Therefore, technologies to reduce the environmental impacts and costs of hydropower would be important for future project developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Land Use of Solar Infrastructure and Agriculture for Socioeconomic and Environmental Co-Benefits in the Tropics

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are on the rise even in areas of low solar insolation. However, in developing countries with limited capital, land scarcity, or with geographically isolated agrarian communities, large solar infrastructures are often impractical. In these cases, implementation of low-density PV over existing crops may be required to integrate renewable energy services into rural communities. Here, using Indonesia as a model system, we investigated the land use, energy, greenhouse gas emissions, economic feasibility, and the environmental co-benefits associated with off-grid solar PV when combined with high value crop cultivation. The life cycle analyses indicate that small-scale dual land-use systems are economically viable in certain configurations and have the potential to provide several co-benefits including rural electrification, retrofitting diesel electricity generation, and electricity for processing agricultural products locally. A hypothetical full-density off-grid solar PV for a model village in Indonesia shows that electricity output (1907.5 GJ yr-1) is much higher than the total residential consumption (678 GJ yr-1), highlighting the opportunity to downscale the PV infrastructure by half to lower capital cost, to co-locate crops, and to support secondary income generating activities. Economic analysis shows that the 30-year net present cost of electricity from the half-density co-located PV system (12,257 million IDR) is significantly lower than that of the flat cost of diesel required to generate equivalent electricity (14,702 million IDR). Our analysis provides insights for smarter energy planning by optimizing the efficiency of land use and limiting conversion of agricultural and forested areas for energy production.

agrivoltaics↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spatial and temporal modeling of sub- and supercritical thermal energy storage

This paper describes a thermodynamic model that simulates the discharge cycle of a single-tank thermal energy storage (TES) system that can operate from the two-phase (liquid-vapor) to supercritical regimes for storage fluid temperatures typical of concentrating solar power plants. State-of-the-art TES design utilizes a two-tank system with molten nitrate salts; one major problem is the high capital cost of the salts (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2012). The alternate approach explored here opens up the use of low-cost fluids by considering operation at higher pressures associated with the two-phase and supercritical regimes. The main challenge to such a system is its high pressures and temperatures which necessitate a relatively high-cost containment vessel that represents a large fraction of the system capital cost. To mitigate this cost, the proposed design utilizes a single-tank TES system, effectively halving the required wall material. A single-tank approach also significantly reduces the complexity of the system in comparison to the two-tank systems, which require expensive pumps and external heat exchangers. A thermodynamic model is used to evaluate system performance; in particular it predicts the volume of tank wall material needed to encapsulate the storage fluid. The transient temperature of the tank is observed to remain hottest at the storage tank exit, which is beneficial to system operation. It is also shown that there is an optimum storage fluid loading that generates a given turbine energy output while minimizing the required tank wall material. Overall, this study explores opportunities to further improve current solar thermal technologies. The proposed single-tank system shows promise for decreasing the cost of thermal energy storage. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tse, LA↗
DOE OSTI2019

Simulation of thermal hydraulic performance of multiple parallel micropin arrays for concentrating solar thermal applications with supercritical carbon dioxide

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants have the potential to provide 24 h, renewable electricity. Current CSP systems have high capital and operational costs which makes the levelized cost of electricity uncompetitive with conventional techniques. Recent experimental research has shown the potential of small unit cells (up to 2 × 2 cm) containing micropin arrays (D H < 1 mm) to operate efficiently at high incident flux (>140 W cm -2 ) using supercritical carbon dioxide as the working fluid. Applying this technology to CSP systems would result in a smaller central receiver, which would reduce thermal losses, increase receiver efficiency and reduce the capital cost of the receiver component. This study investigates and addresses the practical thermal and hydraulic issues in numbering up these small unit cells into numerous parallel cells within an integrated module design. A thermal hydraulic network model is developed to quantify the distribution and the overall receiver efficiency of an integrated module. This model is used to specify maximum allowable unit cell size and header dimensions to maintain acceptable thermal performance and pressure loss. Once a module design was finalized, parametric studies were performed to study the effects of varying incident flux on flow distribution and thermal performance of the module. Finally, the results show that an integrated module design can be achieved with less than 5% flow maldistribution and a pressure drop acceptable to the remainder of the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Techno-economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Producing High-Value Chemicals and Fuels from Waste Plastic via Conventional Pyrolysis and Thermal Oxo-degradation

The rapid rise in global plastic production in recent decades has resulted in the massive generation of plastic waste. Over 75% of the plastic waste generated in the United States was sent to landfills, with a meager 8.7% recycled. Plastics are valuable feedstocks for platform chemicals and fuels. Chemical upcycling of waste high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is gaining more attention as a potentially feasible and environmentally friendly plastic waste management technology. Conventional pyrolysis (CPY) and thermal oxo-degradation (TOD) are two chemical upcycling technologies actively researched for decomposing waste HDPE into valuable chemicals and fuels. However, there are few studies on the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of these technologies for converting waste HDPE to valuable products. This study conducts a comparative TEA and LCA study of the thermochemical decomposition of waste HDPE to produce gaseous (ethylene and propylene) and liquid (naphtha, diesel, and wax) products by CPY and TOD. The study elucidates and compares the impact of hydrocracking longer chain hydrocarbons to produce more valuable products on the TEA and LCA. The TEA showed that the fixed capital investment could range from $\$32.5$ million for TOD without hydrocracking to $\$244$ million for CPY with hydrocracking scenarios. Annual revenues range from $\$28.1$ million to $\$71.5$ million in favor of scenarios with hydrocracking. However, the net present value ranges from $\$1.4$ million to $\$265.8$ million in favor of scenarios without hydrocracking. Sensitivity analysis showed that fixed capital cost, facility capacity, and product prices have the biggest impact on the process economics of the facilities, while utilities and waste transportation to refineries have the biggest impact on environmental impacts. Here, the LCA showed that primary products from scenarios without hydrocracking can be more environmentally friendly than virgin products from petroleum processes. However, TOD and CPY with hydrocracking primary products have more emissions than those of virgin products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost and Carbon Intensity Implications of Coprocessing Sustainable Aviation Fuel at Petroleum Refineries

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the aviation industry. Among SAF production pathways, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) stands out for its scalability, supported by abundant feedstock availability and a well-established bioethanol industry. However, significant reductions in SAF carbon intensity (CI) require the use of future feedstocks (e.g., cellulosic) whose adoption is hindered by high capital costs for feedstock processing and ethanol upgrading. Here, we evaluate the financial viability and environmental implications of integrating an ATJ SAF biorefinery within a petroleum refinery, utilizing miscanthus and switchgrass as example feedstocks. Three scenarios are evaluated: standalone (benchmark), colocated, and repurposing (coprocessing SAF within the petroleum refinery). Results show repurposing reduces baseline capital costs by 36% and SAF minimum selling price (MSP) by 12% to 8.14 USD·gal −1 ; the superior performance of repurposing is consistent across both feedstocks. Integration has a limited effect on SAF CI, which remains stable across scenarios, whereas using cellulosic feedstocks reduces CI by over 70% relative to corn, with baseline values of 17.01 g CO 2 e· MJ −1 for miscanthus and 12.23 g CO 2 e·MJ −1 for switchgrass. Global sensitivity analysis reveals MSP declines with greater coprocessing levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cost Optimization of Osmotically Assisted Reverse Osmosis

We develop a nonlinear optimization model to identify minimum cost designs for osmotically assisted reverse osmosis (OARO), a multistaged membrane-based process for desalinating high-salinity brines. The optimization model enables comprehensive evaluation of a complex process configuration and operational decision space that includes nonlinear process performance and implicit relationships among membrane stages, saline sweep cycles, and makeup, purge, and recycle streams. Here, the objective function minimizes cost, rather than energy or capital expenditures, to accurately account for the trade-offs in capital and operational expenses inherent in multistaged membrane processes. Generally, we find that cost-optimal OARO processes minimize the number of stages, eliminate the use of saline makeup streams, purge from the first sweep cycle, and successively decrease stage membrane area and sweep flow rates. The optimal OARO configuration for treating feed salinities of 50–125 g/L total dissolved solids with water recoveries between 30–70% results in costs less than or equal to $6 per m3 of product water. Sensitivity analysis suggests that future research to minimize OARO costs should focus on minimizing the membrane structural parameter while maximizing the membrane burst pressure and reducing the membrane unit cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗
DOE OSTI2016

Exploring the Mechanism of β-Lactam Ring Protonation in the Class A β-lactamase Acylation Mechanism Using Neutron and X-ray Crystallography

The catalytic mechanism of class A beta-lactamases is often debated due in part to the large number of amino acids that interact with bound beta-lactam substrates. The role and function of the conserved residue Lys 73 in the catalytic mechanism of class A type beta-lactamase enzymes is still not well understood after decades of scientific research. To better elucidate the functions of this vital residue, we used both neutron and high-resolution X-ray diffraction to examine both the structures of the ligand free protein and the acyl-enzyme complex of perdeuterated E166A Toho-1 beta-lactamase with the antibiotic cefotaxime. The E166A mutant lacks a critical glutamate residue that has a key role in the deacylation step of the catalytic mechanism, allowing the acyl-enzyme adduct to be captured for study. In our ligand free structures, Lys 73 is present in a single conformation, however in all of our acyl-enzyme structures, Lys 73 is present in two different conformations, in which one conformer is closer to Ser 70 while the other conformer is positioned closer to Ser 130, which supports the existence of a possible pathway by which proton transfer from Lys 73 to Ser 130 can occur. This and further clarifications of the role of Lys 73 in the acylation mechanism may facilitate the design of inhibitors that capitalize on the enzymes native machinery.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2018

Inorganic “Conductive Glass” Approach to Rendering Mesoporous Metal–Organic Frameworks Electronically Conductive and Chemically Responsive

A representative mesoporous metal–organic-framework (MOF) material, NU-1000, has been rendered electronically conductive via a robust inorganic approach that permits retention of MOF crystallinity and porosity. The approach is based on condensed-phase grafting of molecular tin species onto the MOF nodes via irreversible reaction with hydroxyl and aqua ligands presented at the node surface, a self-limiting process termed solvothermal installation (of metal ions) in MOFs (SIM, a solution-phase analog of atomic layer deposition in MOFs). Treatment of the modified MOF with aerated steam at 120 °C converts the grafted tin molecules to tetratin(IV)oxy clusters, with the clusters being sited between insulating pairs of zirconia-like nodes (the zirconium component being key to endowing the parent material with requisite chemical and thermal stability). By introducing new O–H presenting ligands on the modified-MOF node, the high-temperature steam step additionally serves to reset the material to reactive form, thus enabling a second self-limiting tin-grafting step to be run (and after further steam treatment, enabling a third). Difference-envelop-density (DED) analyses of synchrotron-derived X-ray scattering data, with and without installed tin species, show that the clusters formed after one cycle are spatially isolated, but that repetitive SIM cycling adds metal and oxygen ions in a way that enshrouds nodes, links clusters, and yields continuous one-dimensional strands of oxy-tin(IV), oriented exclusively along the c axis of the MOF. Two-probe conductivity measurements show that the parent MOF and the version containing isolated oxy-tin(IV) clusters are electrically insulating, but that the versions featuring continuous strands show an electrical conductivity of 1.8 × 10–7 S/cm after three Sn-SIM cycles. When combined with interdigitated microelectrodes, the solvent-free and conductive-glass-modified material (three Sn-SIM cycles) displays a substantial and persistent increase in electrical conductivity during exposure to 5% H2, indicating a role for dissociated H2 as an electronic dopant. The increase can be repetitively reversed by alternating H2 with air, illustrating the ability of the conductive MOF to function as a resistive sensor for H2 and suggesting further potential applications that may capitalize on the combination of high volumetric surface area, high mesoporosity, high chemical and thermal stability, and significant electrical conductivity.

bio-inspired↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of the Resistance Mechanism of a Benzoxaborole Inhibitor Reveals Insight into the Leucyl-tRNA Synthetase Editing Mechanism

A new class of antimicrobial benzoxaborole compounds was identified as a potent inhibitor of leucyl-tRNA synthetase (LeuRS) and therefore of protein synthesis. In a novel mechanism, AN2690 (5-fluoro-1,3-dihydro-1-hydroxy-2,1-benzoxaborole) blocks fungal cytoplasmic LeuRS by covalently trapping tRNA Leu in the editing site of the enzyme’s CP1 domain. However, some resistant mutation sites are located outside of the CP1 hydrolytic editing active site. Thus, their mode of action that undermines drug inhibition was not understood. A combination of X-ray crystallography, molecular dynamics, metadynamics, biochemical experiments, and mutational analysis of a distal benzoxaborole-resistant mutant uncovered a eukaryote-specific tyrosine “switch” that is critical to tRNA-dependent post-transfer editing. The tyrosine “switch” has three states that shift between interactions with a lysine and the 3’-hydroxyl of the tRNA terminus, to inhibit or promote post-transfer editing. The oxaborole’s mechanism of action capitalizes upon one of these editing active site states. This tunable editing mechanism in eukaryotic and archaeal LeuRSs is proposed to facilitate precise quality control of aminoacylation fidelity. These mechanistic distinctions could also be capitalized upon for development of the benzoxaboroles as a broad spectrum antibacterial.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Understanding of Cracking during Drying of Thick Aqueous-Processed LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 Cathodes

Replacing N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) with water for processing of lithium-ion battery (LIB) electrodes has both cost and environmental benefits, which include reduced drying time, lower dryer capital cost, elimination of NMP recovery capital equipment, and no release of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the environment. However, aqueous-processed thick cathodes (≳4 mAh/cm 2 ) typically exhibit detrimental cracking during drying that is not observed for the NMP-based counterpart. The reasons for cracking of these water-based thick electrodes are still not well understood due to the complex nature of the colloidal dispersions used in the LIB electrode processing steps. In this work, the contributions of various factors responsible for cracking are discussed. We show that eliminating hydrogen evolution due to corrosion of the aluminum current collector eliminated the majority of the cracks regardless of the coating thickness, identifying the gas evolution as the primary reason for electrode cracking. Some secondary cracks and pinhole-type defects remained after addressing the aluminum current collector corrosion, which are thought to be caused by an inferior binding network formed by carbon black and binder in aqueous-processed cathodes compared to those processed with NMP. The thick aqueous processed cathodes are not able to sufficiently withstand the drying stresses without crack formation. We demonstrate reduction of these secondary defects by either improving the binding network or by reducing the drying stress. The former was achieved by replacing carbon black with vapor grown graphite tubes (VGGTs) that caused a more efficient utilization of the emulsion binder. Here, the latter was achieved by adding a small amount of IPA as a co-solvent that has been shown to reduce capillary stresses.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗