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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Past fires and post-fire impacts reconstructed from a southwest Australian stalagmite

Speleothem records of past environmental change provide an important opportunity to explore fire frequency and intensity in the past, and the antecedent climatic conditions leading to fire events. Here, fire sensitive geochemical signals in a stalagmite from Yonderup Cave, a shallow cave in Western Australia, are compared to well-documented wildfire events that occurred in recent decades. The results are extended to identify wildfires during the growth interval of the speleothem (1760 CE–2005 CE). Principal component analysis of the stalagmite time-series revealed distinct peaks in a combination of phosphorus and metal (aluminium, zinc, copper and lead) concentrations in response to known fire events, which are interpreted to have come from ash. Varying responses in the geochemical signal in the pre- and post-European colonisation period are likely linked to changes in land management, fire frequency and fire intensities. Of note is what we infer to be a particularly intense fire event concluded to have occurred in 1897 ± 5 CE, which climate sensitive proxies (δ18O and bedrock-derived elements) indicate was preceded by a multi-decadal dry period that began in the late 1860s. The intensity of the deduced fire event is supported by a peak in P that is 6.3 times higher than elsewhere in the speleothem, accompanied by a peak in Zn. It was also inferred that changes to the surface-cave hydrology occurred as a result of this event, indicated by increased input of colloidal organic material onto the stalagmite that was interpreted to be caused by shallow karst bedrock fracturing from the heat-induced deformation that is observed after intense fires. These findings show the potential for speleothems to provide dated records of fire intensity and recurrence intervals. Further development could lead to a better understanding of the climate-fire relationship and the effects of land-management practices on wildfire frequency and intensity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid Access Palliative Radiation Therapy Clinics: The Evidence Is There, but Where Are the Clinics? An Australian and New Zealand Perspective

First developed in Canada in the 1990s, Rapid Access Palliative Radiation Therapy (RAPRT) clinics have subsequently spread internationally to expedite treatment for near end-of-life patients, sparing them the need for multiple visits to the department. A “classical” RAPRT clinic is herein defined as “a dedicated clinic specifically established to enable (ideally) same day consultation, planning for, and delivery of palliative radiation treatment.” The aim of this work was to determine the current status of these clinics in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficacy of antivirals and mRNA vaccination against an XBF clinical isolate

Recombination events occur frequently in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), resulting in genetic diversity. Because these events contribute to altered host immune evasion and antiviral susceptibility, it is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and antivirals against recombinant variants. As of March 2023, XBB.1.5, a recombinant sublineage of XBB, is currently the dominant form globally (Fig. S1A, Supplementary Appendix). XBB emerged as a result of recombination between two BA.2 descendants, BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1 (a progeny of BA.2.75). We and other groups have shown that XBB.1.5 is resistant to several therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and effectively evades humoral immunity elicited by natural infection or COVID-19 vaccination.1, 2, 3 By March 30, 2023, an additional recombinant variant, XBF, had been sampled 8966 times in 47 countries and territories in GISAID, reaching it highest prevalence in Australia and New Zealand (Fig. S2, Supplementary Appendix). XBF is still increasing in frequency, although the prevalence of XBB.1.5 appears to be increasing at a faster pace in most regions (Fig. S1B, Supplementary Appendix). XBF is a recombinant of BA.5.2.3 (a descendant of BA.5) and CJ.1 (a descendant of BA.2.75) and, like CJ.1, has an additional three substitutions (R346T, F486P, and F490S) in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the consensus form of its spike protein compared to baseline BA.2.75 (Fig. S3A, Supplementary Appendix). CJ.1 and its related sublineage CJ.1.1 did not expand as extensively as XBF, being sampled in GISAID only 1589 and 142 times respectively. CJ.1 was found circulating in many countries, but most commonly sampled in South Korea, where it is still increasing and has currently reached about 5% of the sampled population. CJ.1.1 was most frequently sampled in Malaysia and Singapore, but remained rare in both nations, peaking at about 1% of the sample in December of 2022. Despite the importance of these related variants, we have no information about the antiviral efficacy and immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccines against a clinical isolate of XBF.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Status of the SABRE South experiment at the Stawell underground physics laboratory

The SABRE (Sodium iodide with Active Background REjection) experiments aim to detect an annual rate modulation from dark matter interactions in ultra-high purity NaI(Tl) crystals. The SABRE South experiment is located at the Stawell Underground Physics Laboratory (SUPL), Australia, and is the first deep underground laboratory in the Southern Hemisphere. SABRE South is designed to disentangle seasonal or site-related effects from the dark matter-like modulated signal first observed by DAMA/LIBRA in the Northern Hemisphere using an active veto and muon detection system. It is a partner to the SABRE North effort at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS). SABRE South is instrumented with ultra-high purity NaI(Tl) crystals immersed in a linear alkyl benzene (LAB) based liquid scintillator veto, further surrounded by passive steel and polyethylene shielding and a plastic scintillator muon veto. Significant work has been undertaken to understand the experimental backgrounds and performance of the crystals. The SABRE South experiment is under construction, and will be commissioned from late 2022 to early 2023. We will present the final design of SABRE South, the status of its construction, its expected background, and its sensitivity to a DAMA/LIBRA like modulation. We will also present recent quenching factor measurements of sodium nuclear recoils in NaI(Tl) crystals measured at the Heavy Ion Accelerator Facility, and a report on the status of SUPL.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the cooling effectiveness of operationalisable urban surface combination scenarios for summer heat mitigation

Extreme summer heat in cities exacerbates the vulnerability of urban communities to heatwaves. Vegetative and reflective urban surfaces can help reduce urban heat. This study investigated the impacts of urban trees, green roofs and cool roofs on heat mitigation during average and extreme summer conditions in temperate oceanic Melbourne, Australia. We simulated the city climate using ‘The Air Pollution Model’ (TAPM) at a 1 km spatial resolution over 10 years, which according to our review of the literature, was the most prolonged period for simulation in Melbourne. During a widespread heatwave event, some of the tested scenarios with combined surface parameters could reduce the extreme values of the energy budget components- sensible heat, latent heat, and storage heat fluxes up to seasonal averages compared to the existing situation for Melbourne (control). The scenario with the highest (reasonable maximum) ground-level vegetation, green roofs, and cool roofs could reduce air temperatures up to 2.4 °C. The simulations suggest that a combined strategy with vegetative and high-albedo surfaces will deliver higher effectiveness with maximum cooling benefits and cost-effectiveness than individual strategies in cities. These results suggest the importance of collaborative strategic planning of urban surfaces to make cities healthier, sustainable, and liveable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Facebook to Recruit Urban Participants for Smartphone-Based Travel Surveys

Social media has become an integral part of everyday life for many individuals, serving as a platform to express opinions, share memories and lifestyles, follow news, and adapt to social trends and norms. The wealth of user information and analytics on these platforms has facilitated the development and sale of tailored products and services, benefiting advertisers and researchers seeking survey participants. Social media advertising has demonstrated its effectiveness in reaching hard-to-reach populations. However, transport researchers have yet to capitalise on this potential fully. This paper presents our experience using social media to recruit participants for two smartphone travel surveys conducted in Australia. We demonstrate that social media recruitment and smartphone-based travel surveys are highly effective, adaptable, and can be rapidly deployed in response to research opportunities, such as during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic when traditional methods may be less suitable. This approach also holds great potential for travel surveys targeting the general population. This paper shares several lessons from this experiment, including our administrative approach and detailed technical instructions to utilise open-source software tools for conducting smartphone travel surveys like ours. This approach significantly reduces study costs compared to most commercial solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observation of High-Energy Electrons Precipitated by NWC Transmitter From PROBA-V Low-Earth Orbit Satellite

The very low-frequency transmitter in the Northwest Cape of Australia (NWC) has previously been observed to pitch-angle scatter electrons with energies from 30–400 keV, creating enhanced fluxes measured by low-Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites. Here we use observations from the Energetic Particle Telescope on PROBA-V. We compare the measured flux, as a function of local magnetic field strength, when the NWC transmitter is “on” versus “off,” and find enhanced fluxes only when NWC is “on” and located on the nightside. The enhanced fluxes occur in the population gradually transitioning from “permanently trapped” to “quasi-trapped.” We show that electrons up to 800 keV, substantially higher energy than previously studied, are scattered by resonant interactions with NWC to produce enhanced fluxes. The enhanced fluxes appear at multiple L-shells for each energy channel, consistent with resonance conditions at distinct wave normal angles, that indicate ducted interactions at L < 1.55 and unducted interactions at L > 1.65.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southern Ocean Cloud Properties Derived From CAPRICORN and MARCUS Data

The properties of Southern Ocean (SO) liquid phase non precipitating clouds (hereafter clouds) are examined using shipborne data collected during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean and the Clouds Aerosols Precipitation Radiation and atmospheric Composition Over the SoutheRN ocean I and II campaigns that took place south of Australia during Autumn 2016 and Summer 2017–2018. Cloud properties are derived using data from W-band radars, lidars, and microwave radiometers using an optimal estimation algorithm. The SO clouds tended to have larger liquid water paths (LWP, 115 ± 117 g m -2 ), smaller effective radii (re, 8.7 ± 3 μm), and higher number concentrations (N d , 90 ± 107 cm-3) than typical values of eastern ocean basin stratocumulus. The clouds demonstrated a tendency for the LWP to increase with Nd presumably due to precipitation suppression up to Nd of approximately 100 cm -3 when mean LWP decreased with increasing Nd. Due to higher optical depth, cloud albedos were less susceptible to changes in Nd compared to subtropical stratocumulus. The highest latitude clouds of the datasets, observed along and near the Antarctic coast, presented a distinctly bimodal character. One mode had the properties of marine clouds further north. Additionally, the other mode occurred in an aerosol environment characterized by high cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and elevated sulfate aerosol without obvious continental aerosol markers. These regions of higher cloud condensation nuclei tended to have higher Nd, smaller re and higher LWP suggesting sensitivity of cloud properties to seasonal biogenic aerosol production in the high latitude SO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. Here, in this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Stratospheric Smoke Mass and Lifetime From 2017 Canadian and 2019/2020 Australian Megafires: Global Simulations and Satellite Observations

Stratospheric injections of carbonaceous aerosols and combustion gases by extreme wildfires have become increasingly common. Recent “megafires,” particularly large and intense fires, delivered particulate burdens to the lower stratosphere comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions. The 2017 Canadian megafire generated four large Pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), injecting up to ≈0.3 Tg of smoke in the lower stratosphere. Even more extreme, the 2019/2020 Australian event produced a pyroCb activity resulting in stratospheric smoke intrusions of ≈1 Tg. To understand their contrasting behavior, we present global climate simulations of the atmospheric response to these events, applying smoke burdens informed by remote observations. Model outcomes, compared to satellite data of smoke transport, reproduce reasonably well the initial plume rise, at 0.2–0.3 km/day, attaining heights of ≈20 km in Canada and above 30 km in Australia. Global dispersal of the plume occurs within about 3 weeks in both cases, consistent with observations. Smoke removal timescales, ≈5 months for the Canadian megafire, agree with remote measurements. During the Australian megafire, observations indicate stratospheric injections three times as large, and models predict comparatively longer smoke lifetimes, ≈16 months. After the latter event, atmospheric optical depths and radiative cooling achieved values close to those measured following the Pinatubo eruption. Sensitivity tests of model assumptions indicate, in accord with prior studies, that smoke burden, injection heights, and black carbon content can determine plume evolution and possible climate impacts. An empirical relation between peak heights of stratospheric plumes and lifetimes is derived that can help assess megafire impacts on the stratosphere, climate and the Earth system

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic Underestimation of Canopy Conductance Sensitivity to Drought by Earth System Models

The response of vegetation canopy conductance (g c ) to changes in moisture availability ($γ^{m}_{gc}$) is a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. While vegetation typically reduces stomatal conductance during drought, accurately modeling how and to what degree stomata respond to changes in moisture availability at global scales is particularly challenging, because no global scale g c observations exist. Here, we leverage a collection of satellite, reanalysis and station-based near-surface air and surface temperature estimates, which are physically and statistically linked to $γ^{m}_{gc}$ due to the local cooling effect of g c through transpiration, to develop a novel emergent constraint of $γ^{m}_{gc}$ in an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that ESMs systematically underestimate $γ^{m}_{gc}$ by ~33%, particularly in grasslands, croplands, and savannas in semi-arid and bordering regions of the Central United States, Central Europe, Southeastern South America, Southern Africa, Eastern Australia, and parts of East Asia. We show that this underestimation occurs because ESMs inadequately reduce g c when soil moisture decreases. As g c controls carbon, water and energy fluxes, the misrepresentation of modeled $γ^{m}_{gc}$ contributes to biases in ESM projections of gross primary production, transpiration, and temperature during droughts. Our results suggest that the severity and duration of droughts may be misrepresented in ESMs due to the impact of sustained g c on both soil moisture dynamics and the biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks that affect local temperatures and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional variability in the environmental controls of precipitation regimes in the tropics

The environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning model. Radar-derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large-scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple machine learning model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg -1 . The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the DYNAMO domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

GPM IMERG V07B and V06B: Evaluation Using Ground-Based Radar Observations and Application in Global Mesoscale Convective System Tracking

This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.

Zhang, Sihan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗