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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Lead exposure in young children over a 5-year period from urban environments using alternative exposure measures with the US EPA IEUBK model – A trial

Highlights: • IEUBK simulations of soil with petri dish dust (PDD), soil with handwipes, sweepings with PDD, sweepings with wipes. • Predicted blood lead levels (PbB) generally give good agreement with observed PbB in spite of differences in intake units for PDD and handwipes. • Analyses with dust loadings converted to concentration give higher predicted PbB. • Simulations on aggregated data for each child give similar results to age-stratified data. • Estimating house dust Pb from measured soil Pb concentrations (in the absence of measured house dust concentrations) results in over-prediction of PbB. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model has been widely used to predict blood lead (PbB) levels in children especially around industrial sites. Exposure variables have strongly focussed on the major contribution of lead (Pb) in soil and interior dust to total intake and, in many studies, site-specific data for air, water, diet and measured PbB were not available. We have applied the IEUBK model to a comprehensive data set, including measured PbB, for 108 children monitored over a 5-year period in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. To use this data set, we have substituted available data (with or without modification) for standard inputs as needed. For example, as an alternative measure for soil Pb concentration (μg/g), we have substituted exterior dust sweepings Pb concentration (μg/g). As alternative measures for interior dust Pb concentration (μg/g) we have used 1) 30-day cumulative petri dish deposition data (PDD) (as µg Pb/m{sup 2}/30days), or 2) hand wipe data (as μg Pb/hand). For comparison, simulations were also undertaken with estimates of dust Pb concentration derived from a prior regression of dust Pb concentration (μg/g) on dust Pb loading (μg/ft{sup 2}) as concentration is the unit specified for the Model. Simulations for each subject using observed data aggregated over the 5-year interval of the study, the most usual application of the IEUBK model, showed using Wilcoxon tests that there was a significant difference between the observed values and the values predicted by the Model containing soil with hand wipes (p < 0.001), and soil and PDD (p = 0.026) but not those for the other two sets of predictors, based on sweepings and PDD or sweepings and wipes. Overall, simulations of the Model using alternative exposure measures of petri dish dust (and possibly hand wipes) instead of vacuum cleaner dust and dust sweepings instead of soil provide predicted PbB which are generally consistent with each other and observed values. The predicted geometric mean PbBs were 2.17 ( ± 1.24) μg/dL for soil with PDD, 1.95 ( ± 1.17) μg/dL for soil with hand wipes, 2.36 ( ± 1.75) μg/dL for sweepings with PDD, and 2.15 ( ± 1.69) for sweepings with hand wipes. These results are in good agreement with the observed geometric mean PbB of 2.46 ( ± 0.99) μg/dL. In contrast to all other IEUBK model studies to our knowledge, we have stratified the data over the age ranges from 1 to 5 years. The median of the predicted values was lower than that for the observed values for every combination of age and set of measures; in some cases, the difference was statistically significant. The differences between observed and predicted PbB tended to be greatest for the soil plus wipes measure and for the oldest age group. Use of ‘default dust’ values calculated from the site-specific soil values, a common application of the IEUBK model, results in predicted PbB about 22% (range 0 to 52%) higher than those from soil with PDD data sets. Geometric mean contributions estimated from the Model to total Pb intake for a child aged 1–2 years was 0.09% for air, 42% for diet, 5.3% for water and 42% for soil and dust. Our results indicate that it is feasible to use alternative measures of soil and dust exposure to provide reliable predictions of PbB in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Chappell, Lori J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Ringed Pole-on Outflow from DO Tauri Revealed by ALMA

We present new Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) Band 6 observations including the CO(2−1) line and 1.3 mm continuum emission from the surroundings of the young stellar object DO Tauri. The ALMA CO molecular data show three different series of rings at different radial velocities. These rings have radii around 220 and 800 au. We make individual fits to the rings and note that their centers are aligned with DO Tauri and its optical high-velocity jet. In addition, we notice that the velocity of these structures increases with the separation from the young star. We discuss the data under the hypothesis that the rings represent velocity cuts through three outflowing shells that are possibly driven by a wide-angle wind, dragging the environment material along a direction close to the line of sight (i = 19°). We estimate the dynamical ages, the mass, the momentum, and the energy of each individual outflow shell and those of the whole outflow. The results are in agreement with those found in outflows from Class II sources. We make a rough estimate for the size of the jet/wind launching region, which needs to be of ≲15 au. We report the physical characteristics of DO Tauri’s disk continuum emission (almost face-on and with a projected major axis in the north–south direction) and its velocity gradient orientation (north–south), indicative of disk rotation for a 1–2 M {sub ⊙} central star. Finally, we show a Hubble Space Telescope [S ii] image of the optical jet and report a measurement of its orientation in the plane of the sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Constraints on the Martian cratering rate imposed by the SNC meteorites and Vallis Marineris layered deposits

Following two independent lines of evidence -- estimates of the age and formation time of a portion of the Martian geologic column exposed in the layered deposits and the crystallization and ejection ages of the SNC meteorites -- it appears that the Martian cratering rate must be double the lunar rate or even higher. This means models such as NHII or NHIII (Neukum and Hiller models II and III), which estimate the Martian cratering rate as being several times lunar are probably far closer to reality on Mars than lunar rates. The effect of such a shift is profound: Mars is transformed from a rather Moon-like place into a planet with vigorous dynamics, multiple large impacts, erosion, floods, and volcanism throughout its history. A strong shift upward in cratering rates on Mars apparently solves some glaring problems; however, it creates others. The period of time during which Earth-like atmospheric conditions existed, the liquid water era on Mars, persists in NHIII up to only 0.5 b.y. ago. Scenarios of extended Earth-like conditions on Mars have been discounted in the past because they would have removed many of the craters from the early bombardment era found in the south. It does appear that some process of crater removal was quite vigorous in the north during Mars' past. Evidence exists that the northern plains may have been the home of long-lived seas or perhaps even a paleo-ocean, so models exist for highly localized destruction of craters in the north. However, the question of how the ancient crater population could be preserved in the south under a long liquid-water era found in any high-cratering-rate models is a serious question that must be addressed. It does appear to be a higher-order problem because it involves low-energy dynamics acting in localized areas, i.e., erosion of craters in the south of Mars, whereas the two problems with the low-cratering-rate models involve high-energy events acting over large areas: the formation of the Vallis Marineris, the SNC ejecting impacts, and the global atmospheric pressure and temperature conditions that allow liquid water to exist as a robust entity anywhere on the Martian surface. In any case, it appears Mars is a more complex and dynamic planet than previously supposed. It has canyons dating from the middle to late period of its history that contain apparent lake sediments bedded deeper than most sediments on Earth. Recent multiple, violent impacts on Mars have apparently provided us with multiple random samples of its surface that all crystallized less than 1.5 b.y. ago. These things cannot be accommodated in our present cratering chronologies of Mars, based on 1x lunar cratering rates, without great difficulties. These difficulties suggest that a new chronology, probably based on NHII or even NHIII, should be adopted; this new chronology will provide us with a new view of Mars as a dynamic planet of rich history.

Brandenburg, J. E.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Lung, Laryngeal and Other Respiratory Cancer Incidence among Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors: An Updated Analysis from 1958 through 2009

The Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors is comprised of a large, population-based cohort offering one of the best opportunities to study the relationship between exposure to radiation and incidence of respiratory cancers. Risks of lung, laryngeal and other cancers of the respiratory system were evaluated among 105,444 LSS subjects followed from 1958 to 2009. During this period, we identified 2,446 lung, 180 laryngeal and 115 other respiratory (trachea, mediastinum and other ill-defined sites) first primary incident cancer cases. Ten additional years of follow-up, improved radiation dose estimates, revised smoking data, and updated migration information were then used to investigate the joint effects of radiation and smoking using Poisson regression methods. For nonsmokers, the sexaveraged excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) for lung cancer (at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) was estimated as 0.81 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.18) with a female-to-male ratio of 2.83. There was no evidence of curvature in the radiation dose-response relationship overall or by sex. Lung cancer risks increased with pack-years of smoking and decreased with time since quitting smoking at any level of radiation exposure. Similar to the previously reported study, which followed cohort members through 1999, the ERR/Gy for lung cancer was significantly higher for low-to-moderate smokers than for heavy smokers, with little evidence of any radiation-associated excess risk in heavy smokers. Of 2,446 lung cancer cases, 113 (5%) could be attributed to radiation exposure. Of the 1,165 lung cancer cases occurring among smokers, 886 (76%) could be attributed to smoking. While there was little evidence of a radiation effect for laryngeal cancer, a nonsignificantly elevated risk of other respiratory cancers was observed. However, significant smoking effects were observed for both laryngeal (ERR per 50 pack-years ¼ 23.57; 95% CI: 8.44, 71.05) and other respiratory cancers (ERR per 50 pack-years¼1.21; 95% CI: 0.10, 3.25)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Durable Airtightness in Single-Family Dwellings - Field Measurementsand Analysis

Here, durability of the building envelope is important to new homes that are increasingly built with improved levels of airtightness. It is also important to weatherized homes such that energy savings from retrofit measures, such as air sealing, are persistent. This paper presents a comparison of air leakage measurements collected in November 2013 through March 2014, with two sets of prior data collected between 2001-2003 from 17 new homes located near Atlanta, GA, and 17 homes near Boise, ID that were weatherized in 2007- 2008. The purpose of the comparison is to determine if there are changes to the airtightness of building envelopes over time. The air leakage increased in all but one of the new homes, with a mean increase of about 25%. The weatherized homes also showed an increase in the mean air leakage (12%). A regression analysis was performed to describe the relationship between prior and current measurements in terms of normalized leakage (NL). The best estimate of the ageing factor predicts a 15% increase in NL over ten years. Further analysis using ResDB data (LBNL’s Residential Diagnostic Database) showed the expected changes in air leakage if ageing were modelled. These results imply the need to examine the causes of increased leakage and methods to avoid them. This increase in leakage with time should be accounted for in long-term population-wide energy savings estimates, such as those used in ratings or energy savings programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Durable Airtightness in Single-Family Dwellings: Field Measurements

Durability of building envelope is important to new homes that are increasingly built with improved levels of airtightness. It is also important to weatherized homes such that energy savings from retrofit measures, such as air sealing, are persistent. We presented a comparison of air leakage measurements collected in November 2013 through March 2014, with two sets of prior data collected between 2001-2003 from 17 new homes located near Atlanta, GA, and 17 homes near Boise, ID that were weatherized in 2007-2008. The purpose of the comparison is to determine if there are changes to the airtightness of building envelopes over time. The air leakage increased in all but one of the new homes, with a mean increase of about 25%. The weatherized homes also showed an increase in the mean air leakage (12%). We performed a regression analysis to describe the relationship between prior and current measurements in terms of normalized leakage (NL). The best estimate of the aging factor predicts a 15% increase in NL over ten years. Further analysis using ResDB data (LBNL’s Residential Diagnostic Database) showed the expected changes in air leakage if aging were modeled. These results imply that we should examine the causes of increased leakage and methods to avoid them. This increase in leakage with time should be accounted for in long-term population-wide energy savings estimates, such as those used in ratings or energy savings programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2011

Can Functional Cardiac Age be Predicted from ECG in a Normal Healthy Population

In a normal healthy population, we desired to determine the most age-dependent conventional and advanced ECG parameters. We hypothesized that changes in several ECG parameters might correlate with age and together reliably characterize the functional age of the heart. Methods: An initial study population of 313 apparently healthy subjects was ultimately reduced to 148 subjects (74 men, 84 women, in the range from 10 to 75 years of age) after exclusion criteria. In all subjects, ECG recordings (resting 5-minute 12-lead high frequency ECG) were evaluated via custom software programs to calculate up to 85 different conventional and advanced ECG parameters including beat-to-beat QT and RR variability, waveform complexity, and signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG parameters. The prediction of functional age was evaluated by multiple linear regression analysis using the best 5 univariate predictors. Results: Ignoring what were ultimately small differences between males and females, the functional age was found to be predicted (R2= 0.69, P < 0.001) from a linear combination of 5 independent variables: QRS elevation in the frontal plane (p<0.001), a new repolarization parameter QTcorr (p<0.001), mean high frequency QRS amplitude (p=0.009), the variability parameter % VLF of RRV (p=0.021) and the P-wave width (p=0.10). Here, QTcorr represents the correlation between the calculated QT and the measured QT signal. Conclusions: In apparently healthy subjects with normal conventional ECGs, functional cardiac age can be estimated by multiple linear regression analysis of mostly advanced ECG results. Because some parameters in the regression formula, such as QTcorr, high frequency QRS amplitude and P-wave width also change with disease in the same direction as with increased age, increased functional age of the heart may reflect subtle age-related pathologies in cardiac electrical function that are usually hidden on conventional ECG.

Schlegel, Todd↗
NASA NTRS1973

Cosmic-ray exposure history of North Ray and South Ray material

Cosmic-ray exposure ages for two breccias, 68815 and 69935, in the vicinity of South Ray Crater give consistent values of 2.0 plus or minus 0.2 m.y. when measured by the Kr-81-Kr, Na-22-Ne, and particle track methods. These also agree with estimates of exposure ages made by others using microcrater counts on six rocks in the same vicinity, including 69935. It is likely that this represents the age of South Ray Crater. Soils from stations close to South Ray Crater appear to be mature, well-irradiated materials containing little, if any, of a 2 m.y. component. Reviewing various lines of evidence, it is concluded that there are no compelling reasons to believe that so-called South Ray soils contain a large fraction of South Ray ejecta. However, if they do contain such ejecta, this material must have been well irradiated in situ prior to being thrown out in the South Ray event. A chip from a large boulder on the rim of North Ray Crater gives a Kr-81-Kr age of 50.6 plus or minus 3.8 m.y. Similar ages are found by the Na-22-Ne and the particle track methods. The agreement of this result with other data on large North Ray boulders fixes the age of North Ray Crater as 50 m.y.

Behrmann, C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

SOLAR WIND COLLISIONAL AGE FROM A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS SIMULATION

Simple estimates of the number of Coulomb collisions experienced by the interplanetary plasma to the point of observation, i.e., the “collisional age”, can be usefully employed in the study of non-thermal features of the solar wind. Usually these estimates are based on local plasma properties at the point of observation. Here we improve the method of estimation of the collisional age by employing solutions obtained from global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulations. This enables evaluation of the complete analytical expression for the collisional age without using approximations. The improved estimation of the collisional timescale is compared with turbulence and expansion timescales to assess the relative importance of collisions. The collisional age computed using the approximate formula employed in previous work is compared with the improved simulation-based calculations to examine the validity of the simplified formula. We also develop an analytical expression for the evaluation of the collisional age and we find good agreement between the numerical and analytical results. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications for an improved estimation of collisionality along spacecraft trajectories, including Solar Probe Plus.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Brain ageing in schizophrenia: evidence from 26 international cohorts via the ENIGMA Schizophrenia consortium

Schizophrenia (SZ) is associated with an increased risk of life-long cognitive impairments, age-related chronic disease, and premature mortality. We investigated evidence for advanced brain ageing in adult SZ patients, and whether this was associated with clinical characteristics in a prospective meta-analytic study conducted by the ENIGMA Schizophrenia Working Group. The study included data from 26 cohorts worldwide, with a total of 2803 SZ patients (mean age 34.2 years; range 18–72 years; 67% male) and 2598 healthy controls (mean age 33.8 years, range 18–73 years, 55% male). Brain-predicted age was individually estimated using a model trained on independent data based on 68 measures of cortical thickness and surface area, 7 subcortical volumes, lateral ventricular volumes and total intracranial volume, all derived from T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Deviations from a healthy brain ageing trajectory were assessed by the difference between brain-predicted age and chronological age (brain-predicted age difference [brain-PAD]). On average, SZ patients showed a higher brain-PAD of +3.55 years (95% CI: 2.91, 4.19; I 2 = 57.53%) compared to controls, after adjusting for age, sex and site (Cohen’s d = 0.48). Among SZ patients, brain-PAD was not associated with specific clinical characteristics (age of onset, duration of illness, symptom severity, or antipsychotic use and dose). This large-scale collaborative study suggests advanced structural brain ageing in SZ. Longitudinal studies of SZ and a range of mental and somatic health outcomes will help to further evaluate the clinical implications of increased brain-PAD and its ability to be influenced by interventions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brain‐age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Abstract Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain‐age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain‐age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain‐age models pre‐trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain‐age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre‐trained brain‐age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best‐performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain‐age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5–90 years; 53.59% female). The pre‐trained models were tested for cross‐dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8–80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9–25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age‐bins (5–40 and 40–90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain‐age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain ( https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2 ), an open‐science, web‐based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying radiation quality for space relevant radiation types: Fitting excess risk models to three combined HZE-irradiated mouse datasets

Radiation health risks are predominantly derived from low linear energy transfer (LET) terrestrial exposures; however, space radiation includes exposure to high-LET and high-charge, high-energy (HZE) particles. Accurately quantifying the differences in radiation quality between the space and terrestrial radiation environments is important for assessing and predicting health risks for astronauts. Weil et al. 2009 and 2014 used two different inbred mouse strains to study differences in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tumorigenesis after exposures to low- and high- LET radiation. More recently, Edmundson et al. 2020 provided valuable new tumor data in outbred mice that were exposed to low- and high-LET radiation. The present study aims to rigorously investigate a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor by leveraging the HCC tumor data from Weil et al. 2009, Weil et al. 2014, and Edmundson et al. 2020. The three experiments were similarly designed, allowing the raw data to be combined into a pooled dataset to estimate excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models using Bayesian Poisson regression. These effect estimates from the pooled data provide greater power to calculate a data driven RBE. Extensive sensitivity analyses test the robustness of RBE estimates to various model assumptions. The following questions will be explored through the sensitivity analyses: • Is the shape of the dose response different for low-LET radiation and HZE radiation, indicating that RBE is a function of dose? • Does attained age modify the effect estimates differently for low-LET radiation and HZE radiation, indicating RBE is a function of attained age? • Are the effect estimates and RBE estimates different for inbred mouse strains and outbred mouse strains? • Do assumptions about differences in ERR models and EAR models change the estimated RBE? Additional studies would be needed to validate the findings from these exploratory analyses.

Lori J. Chappell↗
DOE OSTI2024

AstroCLIP: a cross-modal foundation model for galaxies

ABSTRACT We present AstroCLIP, a single, versatile model that can embed both galaxy images and spectra into a shared, physically meaningful latent space. These embeddings can then be used – without any model fine-tuning – for a variety of downstream tasks including (1) accurate in-modality and cross-modality semantic similarity search, (2) photometric redshift estimation, (3) galaxy property estimation from both images and spectra, and (4) morphology classification. Our approach to implementing AstroCLIP consists of two parts. First, we embed galaxy images and spectra separately by pre-training separate transformer-based image and spectrum encoders in self-supervised settings. We then align the encoders using a contrastive loss. We apply our method to spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and images from its corresponding Legacy Imaging Survey. Overall, we find remarkable performance on all downstream tasks, even relative to supervised baselines. For example, for a task like photometric redshift prediction, we find similar performance to a specifically trained ResNet18, and for additional tasks like physical property estimation (stellar mass, age, metallicity, and specific-star-formation rate), we beat this supervised baseline by 19 per cent in terms of R2. We also compare our results with a state-of-the-art self-supervised single-modal model for galaxy images, and find that our approach outperforms this benchmark by roughly a factor of two on photometric redshift estimation and physical property prediction in terms of R2, while remaining roughly in-line in terms of morphology classification. Ultimately, our approach represents the first cross-modal self-supervised model for galaxies, and the first self-supervised transformer-based architectures for galaxy images and spectra.

Parker, Liam (ORCID:0009000749521674)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
NASA NTRS1985

A perspective on the evidence for periodic cometary impacts on earth

Recent suggestions of periodic cometary showers coincident with mass extinctions have prompted a review of the terrestrial cratering record. From the point of view of completeness of search and crater retention, the record used to argue for statistical periodicities is incomplete and may not be representative. Estimates of crater ages are of variable accuracy and precision and, in some cases, different dating methods yield discordant results. It is possible to define through time-series analysis a number of periodicities of different magnitude (about 29, 21, 18.5, and 13.5 m.y.) and phase, depending on which craters are considered the most representative sample of the record. Arguing against periodic cometary showers is the observation that estimates of the average cratering rate in recent time and observations on Apollo bodies are equivalent. In addition, siderophile element data from impact melt rocks suggest a variety of projectile types were responsible for relatively large terrestrial craters. Given these observations, it is concluded that statements regarding periodic cometray showers are not categorical and require evidence beyond arguments based on time-series analyses of an incomplete cratering record.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Rotational dating of middle-aged stars

By the age of about 100 million years, the rotational velocity of solar mass stars becomes independent of the initial rotation rate on the main sequence, due to the strong dependence of the angular momentum loss rate on the rotation rate; once this common value is reached, the rotation velocity depends only on time and the mass of the star. Thus, the measured rotation rate of a low-mass star provides an estimate of its age when its mass is known. The observed rotation periods of low-mass stars in the Hyades are used to test this conclusion and to check the validity of the theoretical angular momentum loss rates. Adapting the magnetic braking model of Kawaler (1988), the angular momentum loss rate is integrated to derive a relation between rotation period and age, and this relation is converted to a period-age-color relation using simple stellar models. Using this method, a mean rotational age for the Hyades is obtained which is in close agreement with the age determined by isochrone fitting.

Kawaler, Steven D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Problems in the interpretation of lunar mare stratigraphy and relative ages indicated by ejecta from small impact craters

The numbers of large ejecta blocks in excess of several meters in diameter ('blockiness') around the rims of small craters in southeastern Mare Serenitatis exceed those around similar craters in southern Mare Imbrium (and some other regions) at all but the final stages of crater degradation. Terrestrial explosion crater analogs, studies of impact processes, and a layered mare model suggest that the nature of the layering in the subsurface, including lavas, ejecta and buried regolith horizons, could account for the variable blockiness of crater ejecta and, possibly, for some variation in crater size-frequency distributions. Such effects would limit the reliability and utility of counting postmare craters for the purpose of estimating the relative ages of mare surfaces. Similarly, comparisons of the effects of progressive degradation on small impact craters to determine relative or absolute ages of individual craters may be limited by the influence of stratigraphy on ejecta fragment size distributions, which would in turn affect micrometeorite erosion rates and regolith production models.

Young, R. A.↗