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At least 37 records · Page 2

Enabling a Sustainable Future: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis to Inform Decarbonization Pathways

Despite being only 5% of vehicles on the road, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are the second largest contributor to transportation emissions (21%) and a major source of local air pollution disproportionally affecting disadvantaged communities. This talk summarizes a cost analysis for zero emissions vehicles (battery electric EVs and hydrogen fuel cell FCEVs) for all medium and heavy duty applications, ranging from large pick-up trucks, to delivery vans, buses, and heavy trucks. Results show that with continued improvements in vehicle and fuel technologies (in line with U.S. Department of Energy targets and vetted with industry), zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) can reach total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional diesel vehicles by 2035 for all medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) vehicle classes without incentives. Assuming economics drives adoption, ZEV sales could reach 42% of all MD/HD trucks by 2030, reflecting lower combined vehicle purchase and operating costs (using real-world payback periods). Two technological solutions - battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) - are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization: a) BEVs tend to become cost-competitive for smaller trucks before 2030 and for short-haul (<500-mile) heavy trucks before 2035. b) Hydrogen FCEVs tend to become cost-competitive for long-haul (>500-mile) heavy trucks by 2035. Results are very sensitive to technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and uncertain assumptions about future freight demand, logistics, and vehicle use explored in multiple scenarios.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Modeling Air Pollutant Emissions in the Provincial Level Road Transportation Sector in Korea: A Case Study of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Subsidy

South Korea has been suffering from high PM2.5 pollution. Previous studies have contributed to establishing PM2.5 mitigation policies but have not considered provincial features and sector-interactions. In that sense, the integrated assessment model (IAM) could complement the shortcomings of previous studies. IAM, capable of analyzing PM2.5 pollution levels at the provincial level in Korea, however, has not been developed yet. Hence, this study (i) expands on IAM which can represent provincial-level spatial resolution in Korea (GCAM-Korea) with air pollutant emissions modeling which focuses on the road transportation sector and (ii) examines the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) subsidy policy’s effects on PM2.5 mitigation using the expanded GCAM-Korea. Simulation results show that PM2.5 emissions decrease by 0.6–4.1% compared to the baseline, and the Seoul metropolitan area contributes 38–44% to the overall PM2.5 emission reductions. As the ZEVs subsidy is weighted towards the light-duty vehicle 4-wheels (LDV4W) sector, various spillover effects are found: ZEVs’ share rises intensively in the LDV4W sector leading to an increase in its service costs, and at the same time, driving bus service costs to become relatively cheaper. This, in turn, drives an increase in bus service demand and emissions discharge. Furthermore, this type of impact of the ZEVs subsidy policy does not reduce internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in freight trucks, although diesel freight trucks are a major contributor to PM2.5 emissions and also to NOx.

Roh, Minyoung↗

Assessing the Impact of Renewable Energy Sources to Achieve Net Zero Emissions

The mass generation of green energy through the pathway of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), is one of the major decisive components contributing to the concept of decarbonization. The energy sector assessment reveals that out of per kWh energy produced, renewable energy emits between 9 and 1000 gCO2 equivalent on a life-cycle basis. Contemplating the literature and the latest reports released by world-wide energy department(s), this study presents a comprehensive concept of carbon footprint, its causes and effects including major impact on biodiversity and human life. The study discusses the substantial steps taken by developing countries like India in leveraging RES for the production of energy and its progressive impact on ecology. The discussion would be inclusive of major change and transformation which has brought significant drop of 16% in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by installation of 104.9 GW of RES excluding Hydro. The appropriate steps taken forward therefore align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nation (UN) in achieving net zero emission (NZE).

decarbonization↗

Zero Emission Drayage Trucks Demonstration (ZECT 1) (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to develop and demonstrate zero emission capable heavy-duty electric truck technologies in real world drayage operations and assess its technical feasibility to support demanding drayage duty cycles. Further objectives of the project included the promotion and acceleration of market adoption of electric truck technologies in cargo transport operations, by engaging trucking fleets and end users in demonstrating ad experiencing these technologies first-hand. The project realized the development and demonstration of two battery-electric and two battery-electric hybrid platforms that advanced the technologies and demonstrated proof of concept.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Considerations for Department of Defense Implementation of Zero-Emission Vehicles and Charging Infrastructure

This guide provides a roadmap to comply with Executive Order (EO) 14057 requirements and transition to a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) fleet efficiently and quickly. EO 14057 on Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to transition its non-tactical vehicles to a 100% ZEV fleet, including 100% of light-duty acquisitions by 2027 and 100% of medium- and heavy-duty acquisitions by 2035. The report covers planning for ZEVs and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders in designing EVSE, and execution issues including acquisition, installation, and ongoing fleet management.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM)

We report although numerous studies investigate the impacts of policy on zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales, few address the impacts of a ZEV sales mandate and its particular design features. We use the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM) to simulate varying designs of a ZEV mandate in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector, requiring 30% ZEV sales by 2030. Design features include: different penalties for non-compliance, different allocations of credits per ZEV type, and the allowance of banking credits across years. For each policy design, we consider impacts on ZEV adoption, GHG emissions, consumer surplus, automaker profits, and overall policy cost-effectiveness. Results demonstrate trade-offs among the policy designs. Generally, ZEV mandate designs that are more effective at increasing ZEV adoption and decreasing GHG emissions also induce larger reductions in consumer surplus and automaker profits. To achieve the ZEV sales goal, simulations show that a higher non-compliance penalty (CDN$ 10k per credit) is needed. ZEV adoption and GHG reductions are also improved by a “One credit per ZEV” scheme, rather than a “California-style” scheme that gives multiple credits per battery-electric vehicle. Further, allowing automakers to bank credits softens the policy impact on profit and increases automaker compliance in initial years. Across these different design combinations, we find that the most cost-effective design ($CDN/tonne mitigated, including consumer surplus and automaker profits impacts) utilizes a $10k non-compliance penalty and “One credit per ZEV” system that allows banking. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of various ZEV mandate design features, and the complex trade-offs involved among various policy goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Bistline, et al. (2025) "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts"

These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2025) article "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts" in Energy and Climate Change as part of the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Please refer to the original paper for details.

climate policy↗

Assessing Total Cost of Driving Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks

This file includes supporting data on modeled medium and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) stock, sales, energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of driving (TCD) for the scenarios presented in "Assessing Total Cost of Driving Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks". It also includes input assumptions for vehicle technology attributes (cost and fuel economy), fuel costs, maintenance costs, and the opportunity cost of charging time for the central scenario and relevant sensitivities. Values are reported at the national (United States) level for all vehicle classes and technologies. Tab 'B' inclues definitions, while data is provided in subsequent sheets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Renewable Energy Systems in the Transition of North America to Net Zero Emissions

The North American transition to low-carbon energy sources depends on the technology decisions of its diverse communities and stakeholders. Each region and industry will have its own portfolio of renewable energy technologies to meet the common goal of net zero emissions. Our presentation will share integrated renewable energy solutions being explored at scale by major U.S cities, rural regions dependent on oil and gas, and industries redefining their infrastructure and their missions. Case examples will be presented on: the Los Angeles 100% renewable energy goals; challenges and opportunities of decarbonizing and reducing emissions from the oil and gas industry; repurposing oil and gas infrastructure such as using pipelines for hydrogen blends and renewable natural gas and idle wells for geothermal energy and energy storage; treatment of produced water using renewable energy for agriculture applications; and the preserving water and agricultural resources in the transition to renewable energy. Key challenges will also be discussed, including resilience to increasing disasters, stranded assets, unequal community impact, and meeting the last 5-20% of energy with renewable energy.

challenges↗

Hydrogen Contamination Detector: Protecting the future of zero-emission fuel cell energy [Brief]

Los Alamos National Laboratory developed an electrochemical detector to protect zero-emission hydrogen fuel cells from contaminated fuels. Fuel cells power environmentally clean vehicles, fork lifts, drones, and provide auxiliary power. High-purity hydrogen is essential to avoid poisoning fuel cells. Current analysis methods are costly and cannot detect impurities in realtime. The Hydrogen Contamination Detector measures the two highest impact Department of Energy-identified impurities with a simple, low-cost unit that provides 24/7, point-of-service analysis. Los Alamos partnered with H2Frontiers to conduct field trials at hydrogen refueling stations and with Skyre LLC for commercialization through a DOE Technology Commercialization Fund project.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Zero-Emissions Roadmap for Oakland County

This document outlines a strategic pathway for Oakland County, Michigan to achieve zero emissions by 2050 under the Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) Program. The report encompasses analyses and high-level modeling to guide Oakland County in its emission reduction goals. Key methods include establishing an emissions inventory baseline with ongoing evaluation of future projects’ emissions impacts. Core elements include decommissioning old infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency, deploying hybrid and ground-source heat pumps, and transitioning to electric fleets. It is proposed to structure the planning process into 5-year strategic plans to make the decarbonization process manageable. The document also emphasizes the need for reassessment of goals and periodic updates to remain adaptive to technological advancements and funding considerations. A matrixed approach for evaluating projects by cost and emissions savings is suggested to optimize decision-making given finite resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Feasibility Study of Replacing the R/V Robert Gordon Sproul with a Hybrid Vessel Employing Zero-emission Propulsion Technology

This project is a natural "follow-on" to the 2017 MARAD-funded project establishing the technical, regulatory, and economic feasibilities of a zero-emission hydrogen fuel-cell coastal research vessel named the Zero-V. In this follow-on project, we examine the applicability of hydrogen fuel-cell propulsion technology for a different kind of vessel, namely a smaller coastal/local research vessel targeted as a replacement for the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) R/V Robert Gordon Sproul, which is approaching the end of its service life.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Leveraging automotive fuel cells can supply zero-emission peak power in the near-term

An increasingly decarbonized yet resilient power grid requires the corresponding build-out of dispatchable zero-emission resources to supply peak power. However, there is a recognized dearth of solutions which can serve multi-day peak demand events both cost-effectively and with near-term deployability. Here, we find that pairing low-cost automotive fuel cells with hydrogen storage in salt caverns can serve as a peaker plant at less than 500 US$/kW at present, a fraction of the cost of conventional fossil fuel-fired peakers. We demonstrate the peaker’s value for long duration storage by comparing it with pumped hydro and assessing its profitability within Texas’ energy-only market region. Although deployment of these peakers is constrained by the presence of salt caverns, we show that a number of sites in the United States and Europe are endowed with suitable salt formations, while utilizing hydrogen storage in pressurized containers could form a location-agnostic peak power solution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Argon Power Cycle, a zero emission, flexible and reliable power generation technology

The proposed project was aimed at assisting in the development of the Argon Power Cycle (APC), a zero emission, flexible, and efficient power generation technology. In the effort of bringing the APC to the market, NTS proposed in the scope of this project several partial but key activities to advance the development of the APC. These tasks encompassed 1) the analysis of the market, developing a techno-economic model with integrated market inputs, 2) further optimization of our chemical kinetics models for more accurate simulation of the process and 3) scale up of our original prototype to a larger, commercially viable platform. NTS expanded on this scope of work to secure additional R&D funding in amounts north of $7M, carry out customer discovery with the sponsorship of the NSF and grow the team’s engineering talent.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Current Developments of Carbon Capture Storage and/or Utilization–Looking for Net-Zero Emissions Defined in the Paris Agreement

An essential line of worldwide research towards a sustainable energy future is the materials and processes for carbon dioxide capture and storage. Energy from fossil fuels combustion always generates carbon dioxide, leading to a considerable environmental concern with the values of CO2 produced in the world. The increase in emissions leads to a significant challenge in reducing the quantity of this gas in the atmosphere. Many research areas are involved solving this problem, such as process engineering, materials science, chemistry, waste management, and politics and public engagement. To decrease this problem, green and efficient solutions have been extensively studied, such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) processes. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was established, wherein the global temperature increase limit of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels was defined as maximum. To achieve this goal, a global balance between anthropogenic emissions and capture of greenhouse gases in the second half of the 21st century is imperative, i.e., net-zero emissions. Several projects and strategies have been implemented in the existing systems and facilities for greenhouse gas reduction, and new processes have been studied. This review starts with the current data of CO2 emissions to understand the need for drastic reduction. After that, the study reviews the recent progress of CCUS facilities and the implementation of climate-positive solutions, such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture. Future changes in industrial processes are also discussed.

Regufe, Maria João (ORCID:0000000327748302)↗