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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

AmpSuite

Seismic amplitudes offer vital information about explosion source characteristics, including discrimination and yield estimation. To take advantage of this, we developed an interactive Python package to measure, control data quality, generate broad area propagation models and perform discrimination and estimate yield. Propagation models are essential in support of transportable yield and broad area discrimination. The key benefit of this package will be its ability to continuously integrate data and new techniques. The AmpSuite framework will provide standardized, repeatable, and accurate model generation and characterization routines. The capability is crucial for monitoring agencies tasked with rapid and high-quality seismic event characterization. The AmpSuite software includes a series of independent modules to perform: • Direct Phase Amplitude Measurement and Storage • Coda Envelope Measurement and Storage • Data Quality Control • New Propagation Model Developments • Seismic Discrimination and Analysis • Yield Estimation and supporting utility software. The AmpSuite software provides comprehensive solutions for monitoring agencies seeking to optimize model generation and event analysis within a contemporary Python framework. Stakeholders (AFTAC) have begun to move towards the Python language for scientific analysis as a new workforce emerges.

Alfaro, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2020

Report for Department of State (DoS) V-Fund Project "Tying Moment Tensor Solutions to Explosive Yield"

The goal of this study was to use U.S. nuclear explosions with known source parameters (yield, depth, shot point material and/or parameters) to determine moment-derived yield estimates. This work has been accomplished by performing full moment tensor solutions using regional network data from the LLNL network, and other regional broadband stations. As part of this study, we have calculated solutions for 130 U.S. nuclear explosions and 12 additional chemical explosions. We then take several approaches to using moment tensors to estimate yield, considering both the full and isotropic moment tensors, doing straight regression analysis on the whole dataset, then successively refining the calibration with additional information about material and overburden. We have also tried a completely new approach of using the seismic moment to help estimate the radiated seismic energy and tying this to yield through a seismic efficiency. Results appear to be promising, but more work might be required to make this more useful in an operational sense.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Acoustic Source Model for Chemical Explosions in Air

Chemical explosions generate pressure disturbances in air that radiate as nonlinear shock waves near the source and transition into acoustic waves with distance. Because low-frequency acoustic waves generally travel large distances without significant loss of energy, they are often used for explosion monitoring and yield estimation. However, quantitative relationships between acoustic energy and explosion yields are required for accurate yield estimation. Here, we develop an empirical acoustic source model for chemical explosions from experimental data. The empirical model returns the acoustic pressure waveform for the detonation of 1 kg of trinitrotoluene, which is conventionally used to represent the explosive release of 4.184 MJ of explosion energy. The full-waveform model can be used to predict acoustic signals for an arbitrary yield of a high-explosive detonation based on the standard scaling law and to estimate acoustic energies in a specific frequency range. We evaluate the accuracy of the acoustic source model independently by estimating the yield of other explosive events that are not included in the model development. Finally, statistical characteristics of the model and their implications for the uncertainty quantification of estimated yields are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Characterization at Low Yields from Physics Experiment One A

The detonation of a well-recorded coupled explosion at the well-characterized Nevada National Security Site, as part of Physics Experiment One, has provided us with an opportunity to compare and contrast methods and results of yield estimation and other event characterization methods. Yield estimates are made using several methods, including local/regional magnitudes, waveform envelopes, acoustic amplitudes, joint seismoacoustic yield, and moment tensors. We include in our analysis a discussion and comparison of applicability, calibrations, assumptions, and uncertainties involved in each. With the exception of magnitude-based methods, all the techniques were more or less successful in recovering the known yield. It is, however, useful to be cognizant of requirements and calibrations, such as station coverage, emplacement conditions, propagation characterization, and uncertainties, to apply the methods to other areas with less complete information. We demonstrate that we can be successful at monitoring low-yield explosions using a variety of methods assuming that the signal-to-noise ratio is adequate at recording stations, and that the material properties are taken into account. Depth estimates are also important, particularly if one allows the possibility of a surface explosion.

Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blue Canyon Dome Emplacement Artifacts

The Blue Canyon Dome (BCD) experiments are a series of intermediate scale subsurface chemical explosions designed to explore the geophysical relationship between scaled yields and formation damage. Phase 2 of this experiment involved explosions designed to evaluate the effect of damage, demonstrating the effect of geologic features and previous damage on the near field seismic signatures, not just in amplitude, but also in spectral content. Based on the emplacement effect on the seismic signature, the moment-based yield estimates showed error between 10s-1000s of percent. This report details an alternative approach to emplacement-based filtering techniques of the seismic signatures to improve yield estimates for explosions in damaged rock. The results will be used to develop an improved inverse yield model that leverages the information in the seismic signature for each source based on emplacement type.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Optimization of Pre-Commercial Enzymes Dosage for a Potential Lignocellulosic Biorefinery

Lignocellulolytic enzymes remain one of the primary cost constraints in second-generation (2G) ethanol biorefineries. Achieving efficient hydrolysis of structural carbohydrates with minimal enzyme dosage, maintaining slurry fermentability for industrially relevant ethanol titers, and maximizing ethanol yield per ton of biomass are among the major challenges in 2G processes. In this study, we optimized the dosages of pre-commercial cellulase (NS22257) and hemicellulase (NS22244) on pilot-scale, hydrothermally pretreated lignocellulosic substrates. Enzyme dosages were evaluated at three levels: 20 mg of cellulase with 7.25 mg of hemicellulase (ED-1), 40 mg with 14.5 mg (ED-2), and 60 mg with 21.75 mg (ED-3). As expected, the highest sugar yields were obtained with ED-3; however, for sweet sorghum, oilcane, and miscanthus, sugar yields from ED-2 and ED-3 were not significantly different (p < 0.05). For example, sweet sorghum produced 123.78 ± 1.54 g L−1 and 125.76 ± 0.46 g L−1 of total sugars (glucose and xylose) with ED-2 and ED-3, respectively. Although energycane exhibited a statistically significant difference between ED-2 and ED-3, the incremental gain with ED-3 was modest, increasing sugar release by only 9.02 g L−1 relative to ED-2. Importantly, ED-1 resulted in sugar yields of 88.88 ± 3.64 to 106.86 ± 1.21 g L−1, sufficient to achieve ethanol titers ≥40 g L−1, the threshold required for industrial relevance. A semi-integrated bioprocess validated this outcome, producing 42.09 ± 2.38 g L−1 ethanol and an estimated yield of 213.38 L of ethanol per dry ton of pretreated biomass, requiring only 20.83 L of cellulase and 6.25 L of hemicellulase per ton. Remarkably, these enzyme dosages were approximately tenfold lower than those reported in prior studies.

Energycane↗
DOE OSTI2025

Full‐Waveform Simulation of Infrasound Propagation in the Atmosphere: A Case Study of the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship Explosion

Infrasound, low‐frequency sound below 20 Hz, has been a key technology to monitor explosion events in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty Organization provides the means for continuous monitoring of infrasonic events worldwide. Infrasonic techniques for event location and size estimation can also complement other observational techniques for the detection and characterization of the entry of asteroids or large meteoroids. In this study, we describe the detection capability of IMS infrasound stations for an explosive event in the middle of the atmosphere. Full‐waveform simulations are performed with the specification of atmospheric conditions and incorporated into the event location and explosion yield estimation. We applied it to the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship explosion at 29 km altitude. Starship is a super heavy‐lift space vehicle constructed by SpaceX and known as the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. The Starship explosion created huge pressure disturbances in the atmosphere, and its infrasound was detected by the IMS arrays in North America between 2000 and 4000 km. Independent observational data and available ground‐truth information provide a rare opportunity to evaluate the monitoring capability of the IMS network for elevated sources in the atmosphere. We also demonstrate the capability of full‐waveform simulation for infrasound wavefield characterization and prediction to improve event location and yield estimation.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

The AMACStar ASIC for the HL-LHC ATLAS ITk Strip detector: design, verification, testing, and quality assurance

For the high-luminosity upgrade to the LHC (HL-LHC), the ATLAS detector at CERN requires an all-new inner detector, the Inner Tracker (ITk). The ITk Strip subdetector is made up of silicon modules, which include three types of radiation-hard ASICs. One of these is the Autonomous Monitor and Control (AMAC). The AMAC is manufactured by Global Foundries using 130 nm CMOS8RF DM technology and is approximately 3 by 5 mm in size. This ASIC autonomously monitors the temperatures, voltages, and currents in the module components while controlling critical values in order to prevent these quantities from reaching dangerous levels. The final design, AMACStar, was verified, tested, and ensured to perform all necessary functions. A quality control procedure using an in-house probe station set-up was developed in order to ensure that every individual chip on each wafer of AMACStars required by the ITk Strip project met performance requirements. The average per wafer yield of usable AMACStars is 92.33%, exceeding the design-specific 90% yield estimated for project costing. This estimate was based on actual yields for similar designs in this process.

Analogue electronic circuits↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microstructural Development in Inconel 718 Nickel-Based Superalloy Additively Manufactured by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Excellent weldability and high temperature stability make Inconel 718 (IN718) one of the most popular alloys to be produced by additive manufacturing. Here in this study, we investigated the effects of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) parameters on the microstructure and relative density of IN718. The samples were fabricated with independently varied laser power (125 - 350W), laser scan speed (200 - 2200 mm/s), and laser scan rotation (0° - 90°). Archimedes’ method, optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy were employed to assess the influence of LPBF parameters on the relative density and microstructure. Optimal processing windows were identified for a wide range of processing parameters and relative density greater than 99.5% was achieved using volumetric energy density between 50 and 100 J/mm3. Microstructural features including melt pool geometry, lack of fusion defect, keyhole porosity, and sub-grain cellular microstructure were examined and quantified to correlate to LPBF parameters. A simple empirical model was postulated to relate relative sample density and LPBF volumetric energy density. Melt pool dimensions were quantitatively measured and compared to estimations based on Rosenthal solution, which yielded a good agreement with the width, but underestimated the depth, particularly at high energy input, due to lack of consideration for keyhole mode. In addition, the sub-grain cellular-dendritic microstructure in the as-built samples was observed to decrease with increasing laser scan speed. Quantification of the sub-micron cellular-dendritic microstructure yielded estimated cooling rate in the order of 10 5 – 10 7 K/s.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗