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Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.
Multiple regression models were studied in order to determine their yield estimation capability for any arbitrary unit area and to obtain greater responsiveness and accuracy through the use of additional data sources applied at smaller spatial and temporal scales. It was concluded that data base inadequacy was the factor limiting performance in the models studied and that each of the models has more yield predicting capability than was reached during LACIE.
Droughts pose serious threats to the agricultural sector, especially in rainfed-dominated agricultural regions like those in Argentina’s Humid Pampas. This region was recently impacted by slow-evolving and long-lasting droughts as well as by flash droughts, resulting in losses reaching thousands of millions of US dollars. Improvements of drought early warning systems are essential, particularly given the projected increase in drought frequency and severity over southern South America. The spatial and temporal relationship between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health anomalies are crucial for better understanding and representation of the agricultural droughts and their impacts. In this context, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) considers the causal and time-lagged relationship of these three variables. The study’s objective is twofold: (1) Analyze the time-lagged response between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and satellite fAPAR anomalies; and (2) Evaluate the CDI’s capability to characterize the severity of drought events on the Humid Pampas against agricultural yield estimations and simulations, as well as agricultural emergency declarations. The correlation among the variables shows strong spatial variability. The highest Pearson correlation values (r > 0.42) are observed over parts of the Humid Pampas for time lags of 0, 10, and 20 days between the variables. Although the CDI has limitations, such as its coarse spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution of precipitation data, it effectively tracks the progression of major drought events in the region. The CDI’s performance aligns well with estimations and simulations of soybean and corn yields, as well as official declarations of agricultural emergencies. Insights from this study also provide a basis for discussing potential improvements to the CDI. This study highlights the global and regional significance of evaluating and enhancing the CDI for effective drought monitoring, emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts for future advancements in drought early warning systems.
The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) flagship has a goal to survey ~100 of the nearest stellar systems and their habitable zones in order to detector and spectroscopically characterize ~25 potentially “Earth-like planets” (or “Exoearths”). The HWO telescope will feature a >6-m diameter aperture and a coronagraph that will suppress starlight by ten orders of magnitude to enable the detection and characterization of Earth analogues in the habitable zone. Three Exploratory Analytic Cases (EACs) are currently considering different aperture configurations for HWO including on-axis and off-axis apertures and both different hexagonal and keystone segmentation configurations. Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs) offer a path to miniaturize traditional, bulk optics coronagraph functionality reducing risk margins and increasing mission science exoearth yields for the HWO mission. We have developed a simulation pipeline that enables evaluation of the AstroPIC photonic integrated coronagraph through to estimates mission yields. We present sensitivities to aberrations for different types of segmentation and low-order aberrations for HWO EACs demonstrating that AstroPIC is suitable for both on-axis and off-axis configurations. We perform a parametric sweep of the exoearth science yield sensitivities in terms of key coronagraph parameters including coronagraphic end-to-end throughput, inner working angle, robustness to aberrations, and bandwidth. We consider both a hybrid and a pure photonic architecture; a pure integrated photonic architecture provides the greatest potential in science yield improvements, although a hybrid PIC limited in its numbers of modes can provide complementary science to a traditional, bulk-optic coronagraph and increasing the estimated science yield when operated jointly.
The LACIE yield models developed, implemented, and tested during the three phases of the experiment represent the first generation of models designed for the large-scale prediction of wheat production. The models are capable of supporting the stated project goal of being within 10 percent of the actual wheat production 90 percent of the time. The limitations of the models are inherent in their nature. The temporal resolution limits their ability to handle the erratic weather occurring in critical situations. The relatively large spatial resolution of the individual models limits the capture of localized but important episodic events.
Moment tensor (MT) solutions are proving increasingly valuable in explosion monitoring, especially now that they are more routinely calculated for the unconstrained, full (six component) MT. In this study, we have calculated MTs for U.S. underground nuclear tests conducted at the Nevada National Security Site using seismic recordings primarily from the Livermore Nevada Network. We are able to determine them for 130 nuclear explosions from 1970 to 1996 for a range of yields and under a variety of material conditions, which we have supplemented with 10 additional chemical explosions at the test site. The result is an extensive database of MTs that can be used to assess the performance of important monitoring tasks such as event identification and yield determination. We test the explosion event screening on the fundamental lune of the MT eigensphere and find MT screening to be a robust discriminant between earthquakes and explosions. We then explore the estimation of moment-derived yield, in which we find that material properties are the largest contributor to differences in the estimated moment-to-yield ratio. Additionally, further research conducted on this dataset can be used to develop, test, and improve various explosion monitoring methodologies.
Crop yield forecasting is performed monthly during the growing season by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The underpinnings are long-established probability surveys reliant on farmers’ feedback in parallel with biophysical measurements. Over the last decade though, satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used to corroborate the survey information. This is facilitated through the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies/Global Agricultural Monitoring system, which provides open access to pertinent real-time normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Hence, two relatively straightforward MODIS-based modeling methods are employed operationally. The first model constitutes mid-season timing based on the maximum peak NDVI value, while the second is reflective of late-season timing by integrating accumulated NDVI over a threshold value. Corn model results nationally show the peak NDVI method provides a R^(2) of 0.88 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3.5%. The accumulated method, using an optimally derived 0.58 NDVI threshold, improves the performance to 0.93 and 2.7%, respectively. Both these models outperform simple trend analysis, which is 0.48 and 7.4%, correspondingly. For soybeans the R^(2) results of the peak NDVI model are 0.62, and 0.73 for the accumulated using a 0.56 threshold. CVs are 6.8% and 5.7%, respectively. Spring wheat’s R2performance with the accumulated NDVI model is 0.60 but just 0.40 with peak NDVI. The soybean and spring wheat models perform similarly to trend analysis. Winter wheat and upland cotton show poor model performance, regardless of method. Ultimately, corn yield forecasting derived from MODIS imagery is robust, and there are circumstances when forecasts for soybeans and spring wheat have merit too.
Large-area relations between satellite spectral data and end-of-season crop yield were investigated. Green Index Number (GIN) values from Landsat MSS data of sample segments throughout the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat belt in 1978 were correlated to county USDA-SRS reported yields. A linear relation between GIN and yield appeared to exist up to GIN values of 40 or 50, covering cases of severe to moderate stress. In a test on 1978 Texas winter wheat at the county level, GIN values for sample segments in the counties were used in conjunction with an agronomic-meteorological yield model. The combined fit explained significantly more of the observed yield variation at the county level than the agromet model alone.
Here, we use the Pasyanos and Chiang (2022) data set to calculate the seismic moment M 0 for each explosion and use the measured explosive yield W to validate the W~M 0 relationship in Denny and Johnson (1991; hereafter, DJ91). The M 0 is corrected by transforming to a potency tensor and applying more appropriate near-source geophysical parameter values in the moment estimate. The mean residual between observed and predicted yield is near zero; however, the standard deviation of the residuals results in an F-value (a 95% confidence factor) of about 5. We re-estimate the coefficients in the DJ91 model and find similar values and only a slight improvement in the F-value. Next, we embark on a similar model selection process as DJ91, allowing for non-cube-root yield scaling and other plausible near-source elastic moduli. As was found by DJ91, the yield dependence is not significantly different from unity, and a cube root assumption is valid. Therefore, we yield scale the seismic moment and test the significance of all plausible explanatory variables. Isotropic moment performs better in the response variable than total moment. The preference for isotropic moment could be due to its relationship to volume change, which would be more directly affected by explosive yield. Surprisingly, we find that the overburden pressure, which is a function of depth, is not a significant parameter in the model. We hypothesize that this is due to the competing depth effects on source asymmetry and the incorporation of depth in the Green’s functions used to calculate the seismic moment tensors. Importantly, this emphasizes that only seismic moment tensor-derived moments should be used in these models. After removing insignificant model parameters, we are left with a simple model to predict explosive yield $\widehat{W}$ in kt from isotropic moment M I in N·m, $\widehat{W}$=κ –1.4132 10 0.035626GP M I , in which κ and GP are the near-source bulk modulus and gas porosity in Pa and %, respectively. The F-value for this model is approximately 3.
Future NASA concept missions that are currently under study, like the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) and the Large Ultra-violet Optical Infra Red Surveyor (UVOIR), could discover a large diversity of exoplanets. We propose here a classification scheme that distinguishes exoplanets into different categories based on their size and incident stellar flux, for the purpose of providing the expected number of exoplanets observed (yield) with direct imaging missions. The boundaries of this classification can be computed using the known chemical behavior of gases and condensates at different pressures and temperatures in a planetary atmosphere. In this study, we initially focus on condensation curves for sphalerite ZnS, H2O, CO2, and CH4. The order in which these species condense in a planetary atmosphere define the boundaries between different classes of planets. Broadly, the planets are divided into rocky planets (0.5-1.0 solar radius), super-Earths (1.0-1.75 solar radius), sub-Neptunes (1.75-3.5 solar radius), sub-Jovians (3.5-6.0 solar radius), and Jovians (6-14.3 solar radius) based on their planet sizes, and "hot," "warm," and "cold" based on the incident stellar flux. We then calculate planet occurrence rates within these boundaries for different kinds of exoplanets, eta (sub planet) [i.e. exoplanet], using the community coordinated results of NASA's Exoplanet Program Analysis Group's Science Analysis Group-13 (SAG-13). These occurrence rate estimates are in turn used to estimate the expected exoplanet yields for direct imaging missions of different telescope diameters.
Crop-weather models developed for wheat from an assembled base of approximately 45 years of climatic records and historic wheat yield and production data at the stratum level are described. Utilization of meteorological data acquired by the NOAA satellites is discussed.
An attempt has been made to relate hand-held radiometer measurements, and airborne multispectral scanner readings, with both different wheat stand densities and grain yield. Aircraft overflights were conducted during the tillering, stem extension and heading period stages of growth, while hand-held radiometer readings were taken throughout the growing season. The near-IR/red ratio was used in the analysis, which indicated that both the aircraft and the ground measurements made possible a differentiation and evaluation of wheat stand densities at an early enough growth stage to serve as the basis of management decisions. The aircraft data also corroborated the hand-held radiometer measurements with respect to yield prediction. Winterkill was readily evaluated.
Radiance measurements from handheld (Exotech 100-A) and air-borne (Daedalus DEI 1260) radiometers were related to wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) stand densities (simulated winter wheat winterkill) and to grain yield for a field located 11 km northwest of Sidney, Montana, on a Williams loam soil (fine-loamy, mixed Typic Argiborolls) where a semidwarf hard red spring wheat cultivar was needed to stand. Radiances were measured with the handheld radiometer on clear mornings throughout the growing season. Aircraft overflight measurements were made at the end of tillering and during the early stem extension period, and the mid-heading period. The IR/red ratio and normalized difference vegetation index were used in the analysis. The aircraft measurements corroborated the ground measurements inasmuch as wheat stand densities were detected and could be evaluated at an early enough growth stage to make management decision. The aircraft measurements also corroborated handheld measurements when related to yield prediction. The IR/red ratio, although there was some growth stage dependency, related well to yield when measured from just past tillering until about the watery-ripe stage.
Context. One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale that can spatially separate the signals from exoplanets and their host stars and thus directly scrutinize the exoplanets and their atmospheres. Aims. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared (MIR) nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. We study the impact of various parameters and compare the performance with that of large single-aperture mission concepts detecting exoplanets in reflected light. Methods. We have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Results. An interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures working in the 4–18.5 μ.m wavelength range with a total instrument throughput of 5% could detect up to ≈550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R ⊕ with an integrated S/N ≥ 7. At least ≈160 of the detected exoplanets have radii ≤1.5 R ⊕ . Depending on the observing scenario, ≈25–45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ ) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four 3.5 m apertures, the total number of detections can increase to up to ≈770, including ≈60–80 rocky eHZ planets. With four times 1 m apertures, the maximum detection yield is ≈315 exoplanets, including ≤20 rocky eHZ planets. The vast majority of small, temperate exoplanets are detected around M dwarfs. The impact of changing the wavelength range to 3–20 μm or 6–17 μm on the detection yield is negligible. Conclusions. A large space-based MIR nulling interferometer will be able to directly detect hundreds of small, nearby exoplanets, tens of which would be habitable world candidates. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions. Given that we assumed only 2.5 years for the search phase, a significant sub-set of the detected exoplanets can be followed-up in a second mission phase to obtain high SNR thermal emission spectra, leveraging the superior diagnostic power of the MIR wavelength regime compared to shorter wavelengths.
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A series of large damaging explosions involving fireworks storage occurred near Esparto, Yolo County California on July 1, 2025. Three explosions were located and reported by the University of California Berkeley Seismology Laboratory (UCB/BSL) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Analysis of local distance (< 30 km) seismic recordings of the first blast indicates that there were actually three explosions with later blasts delayed by about 3 and 30 seconds. We measured the first arriving P-wave amplitudes on four of these events with good signal-to-noise ratios.
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