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DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Tritium Behavior in Forest Vegetation for the Purpose of Determining Appropriate Non-Zero Deposition Velocities for Tritium Oxide

Modeling and field measurements have been conducted between 2019 and 2021 to assess the practicality of using a non-zero deposition velocity for safety basis estimates of tritium oxide fate and transport modeling. A model was developed which used a complex deposition algorithm designed to assess how tritium oxide would mix based on the turbulent motions and wind speed effects that the forest canopy has on the atmosphere. The model was driven based on measurements of wind and turbulence taken from the Aiken AmeriFlux Tower which measures these properties at five levels located within and just above the forest. The model was then validated against a series of field experiments which were designed to test the model predictions and estimate the deposition velocity occurring over the forest environment at the Savannah River Site. The field releases used deuterium oxide as a surrogate for tritium oxide and was released as a fine mist which rapidly evaporated, creating a gaseous tracer in the atmosphere. Using air samplers, the elevations in deuterium concentration in the air relative to background measurements was assessed and then modeled. Generally, the numerical model tended to underpredict the amount of deuterium being mixed from above the canopy to the forest floor, indicating that the predictions it provides are still conservative relative to what was measured during the field experiments. Across a suite of modeling runs, the 95 th and 99 th percentile deposition velocities were estimated to be 1.2 and 0.7 cm s -1 , respectively. Estimated deposition velocities in the 2021 field experiments, which specifically assessed a release above the forest canopy and its mixing to the surface, predicted deposition velocities ranging from 1.75 to 6.61 cm s -1 . While these field releases do not cover all possible meteorological conditions, it seems appropriate to use a non-zero deposition velocity when performing safety-basis modeling of tritium oxide. The recommendation presented in this report is to use 1.0 cm s -1 . This is between the 95 th and 99 th percentile value estimated from the modeling study, suggesting it should be appropriate for the majority of release scenarios given the model’s apparent conservatism relative to field measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental validation of a Kalman observer using linearized OpenFAST and a fully instrumented 1:70 model

Abstract To enable real‐time monitoring and control strategies for floating offshore wind turbines, accurate information about the state of the system is needed. This paper details the application of a Kalman filter to the UMaine VolturnUS‐S floating wind platform to provide accurate state estimates in real time using minimal system measurements. The midfidelity nonlinear simulation tool OpenFAST was used to generate the underlying linear state‐space model for the Kalman filter. This linear model and its limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data collected on a 1:70 froude‐scaled model of the floating platform and tower. Using a selection of five measurements from the real system, a Kalman filter was developed to provide estimates for the remaining system states and measurements. These estimates were then validated against the experimental values collected from testing of the scale model. Validation of the Kalman filter produced accurate estimates of surge, heave, and tower base bending moment, measurements of which were not available to the Kalman filter. Performance of the Kalman filter was tested and validated over a range of sea conditions from rated wind speed to storm events and demonstrated robustness in the Kalman filter to maintain accuracy across all operating conditions despite significant error in the underlying linear model for extreme conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Operational-based annual energy production uncertainty: are its components actually uncorrelated?

Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) from a wind power plant – whether based on preconstruction or operational data – are critical for wind plant financial transactions. The uncertainty in the AEP calculation is especially important in quantifying risk and is a key factor in determining financing terms. A popular industry practice is to assume that different uncertainty components within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined as the sum of their squares. We assess the practical validity of this assumption for operational-based uncertainty by performing operational AEP estimates for more than 470 wind plants in the United States, mostly in simple terrain. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to quantify uncertainty in five categories: revenue meter data, wind speed data, regression relationship between density-corrected wind speed (from reanalysis data) and measured wind power, length of long-term-correction data set, and future interannual variability. We identify correlations between categories by comparing the results across all 470 wind plants. We observe a positive correlation between interannual variability and the linearized long-term correction; a negative correlation between wind resource interannual variability and linear regression; and a positive correlation between reference wind speed uncertainty and linear regression. Then, we contrast total operational AEP uncertainty values calculated by omitting and considering correlations between the uncertainty components. We quantify that ignoring these correlations leads to an underestimation of total AEP uncertainty of, on average, 0.1% and as large as 0.5% for specific sites. Although these are not large increases, these would still impact wind plant financing rates; further, we expect these values to increase for wind plants in complex terrain. Based on these results, we conclude that correlations between the identified uncertainty components should be considered when computing the total AEP uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A digital twin based on OpenFAST linearizations for real-time load and fatigue estimation of land-based turbines

Monitoring a wind turbine requires intensive instrumentation, which would be too cost-prohibitive to deploy to an entire wind plant. This work presents a technique that uses readily available measurements to estimate signals that would otherwise require additional instrumentation. This study presents a digital twin concept with a focus on estimating wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and loads in the tower using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements. The model combines a linear state-space model obtained using OpenFAST linearizations, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The measurements are: top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The article extends previous work that derived the linear state-space model using a different method. The new implementation, based on OpenFAST linearization capability, allows for a systematic extension of the method to more states, inputs, outputs, and to the offshore environment. Results from the two methods are compared, and the validation is made with additional measurements using the GE 1.5-MW turbine located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory test site. Real-time damage equivalent loads of the tower bottom moment are estimated with an average accuracy of approximately 10%. Overall, the results from this proof of concept are encouraging, and further application of the model will be considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Turbine Integrated Mortality Reduction (TIMR SM ) Technology as a Smart Curtailment Approach (Final Summary Report)

Wind energy is a crucial technology for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the growth and deployment of wind energy in North America have led to the deaths of many bat species due to operating wind turbines. Hundreds of thousands of bats are estimated to die at wind turbines annually in North America. Operational minimization, which includes feathering turbine blades and curtailment, has been documented to reduce bat fatality effectively. Curtailment refers to altering turbine operation based on wind speed, time of year, temperature, sensors, and activity models. However, when turbines are curtailed, they do not generate power, resulting in energy loss and revenue for wind energy facilities. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) funded the development of Turbine Integrated Mortality Reduction (TIM SM ) Technology, which curtails turbine operation when bats are detected. The initial TIMR system research showed promising results, with an 85% reduction in overall bat fatalities and a 91% reduction for the little brown bat. However, these results were based on a single site during one fall season, and it was unclear if similar results could be replicated at other wind energy facilities. This research aimed to validate the TIMR system results from the prior field study at a second site in the U.S., estimate the power production and reduction in bat mortality at turbines with installed TIMR systems relative to blanket curtailment and fully operational turbines, test the TIMR system in two calendar years and during the summer and fall periods, and evaluate the operational and commercial characteristics of the TIMR system for potential wind industry adoption. The study was conducted at a 500.9-MW wind energy facility in southeast Adair County, Iowa. Three experimental treatments were involved in this randomized block design study: TIMR, Curtailment at 5.0 m/s, and Normal Operation. In 2021, three treatments were used at 18 turbines, expanding to four treatments across 36 turbines in 2022. The TIMR system worked as designed throughout the entire study; however, because of unexpected wind turbine operational challenges in 2021, there was not sufficient sample size to evaluate the treatment differences. In 2022, there were significant differences in fatality levels between treatment types and normal operating turbines. Curtailment at 5.0 m/s reduced fatalities by 30.8% compared to normal operations, and TIMR decreased fatalities by 48.6% compared to normal operations. Two different methods were used to evaluate the differences in energy loss for each treatment. The TIMR system resulted in 1.3% to 1.6 % annual energy loss in 2021 and 1.0% to 1.2 % in 2022. The Curtailment at 5.0 m/s resulted in 0.6% to 0.8 % annual energy loss in 2021 and 0.5% to 0.6 % in 2022. The project achieved all the stated objectives and demonstrated that TIMR is an effective technology that balances bat fatality reduction with energy generation. The results will support the deployment of TIMR and other acoustic sensor-based technologies. The research provides valuable insights into the impact of different treatments on fatality rates and energy outputs, contributing to the ongoing efforts to mitigate the environmental impact of wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Virtual sensing of wind turbine hub loads and drivetrain fatigue damage, Virtuelle Sensoren für die Messung von Hauptwellenlasten und Ermüdungsschäden im Antriebstrang von Windenergieanlagen

Abstract: This paper presents a Digital Twin for virtual sensing of wind turbine aerodynamic hub loads, as well as monitoring the accumulated fatigue damage and remaining useful life in drivetrain bearings based on measurements of the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and the drivetrain condition monitoring system (CMS). The aerodynamic load estimation is realized with data-driven regression models, while the estimation of local bearing loads and damage is conducted with physics-based, analytical models. Field measurements of the DOE 1.5 research turbine are used for model training and validation. The results show low errors of 6.4% and 1.1% in the predicted damage at the main and the generator side high-speed bearing respectively. Zusammenfassung: In diesem Aufsatz wird ein digitaler Zwilling für Windenergieanlagen vorgestellt, welcher die virtuelle Erfassung der Hauptwellenlasten und die Zustandsüberwachung von Ermüdungschäden und der verbleibende Nutzungsdauer der Antriebsstranglager ermöglicht. Der digital Zwilling nutzt Messdaten des Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) Systems und des Zustandsüberwachungssystems des Antriebsstranges (CMS). Die Berechnung der Hauptwellenlasten ist mit datenbasierten Regressionsmodellen umgesetzt, während die Berechnung der Lagerkräfte und der Ermüdungsschaden mit physikbasierten Modelle durchgeführt wird. Für die Modellentwicklung und -validierung werden Feldmessdaten der DOE 1.5MW Turbine eingesetzt. Die Abweichungen in den Ermüdungsschäden am Hauptwellenlager und am Generatorwellenlager betragen lediglich 6,4% beziehungsweise 1,1%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Boundary Layer Climatology at ARM Southern Great Plains

Operational since 1992, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) southern great plains (SGP) site at Oklahoma, USA has become a reference research site for meteorological studies. Due to an open data policy the ARM data are used by researchers all over the world. In this report, we review the long-term climatology of the atmospheric boundary layer, SGP instrumentations, the site and some site-specific atmospheric conditions which potentially effect wind turbines within the region. As the atmospheric boundary layer is bounded and influenced by the surface, observations of surface radiation components and heat fluxes are crucial in understanding land-atmosphere interactions. The entrainment of air, updrafts, downdrafts and boundary layer height characteristics is needed for understanding the structure and growth of the atmospheric boundary layer. Therefore, measurements from both surface in-situ and remote sensing observations at SGP provide an overall climatology and their interactions from surface up to the boundary layer. Measurements from a 60 m meteorological tower, surface flux stations, disdrometers, soil temperature and moisture flux plates, coherent Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, radiosondes, and satellite data at SGP central facility were analyzed. All the measurements were generally within a few square kilometers of each other at the central facility. This report focuses on data from January 2010 to June 2020 at SGP central facility. The various sections describe the ARM SGP site and surrounding wind turbines; in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation used in the report; provides mathematical equations to analyze fluxes, turbulence and other boundary layer parameters; a climatological analysis of surface winds, fluxes and thermodynamic parameters for several years; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; an analysis of the boundary layer winds and direction from a Doppler lidar; multi-year turbulence estimates through the boundary layer from a Doppler lidar; atmospheric boundary layer water vapor and relative humidity profiles from Raman lidar; cloud base height and boundary layer height from multiple sensors and satellite data; and finally site specific atmospheric conditions, such as nocturnal low-level jets. Diurnal, seasonal and yearly variations of surface, sub-surface and boundary layer quantities, such as wind speed, direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, soil temperature, and various atmospheric fluxes at SGP showed distinct trends useful for focused modeling studies. The applicability of surface similarity theory on ARM SGP data is also evaluated, which showed northerly flows are aligned with MO theory estimates compared to southerly flows. Boundary layer winds and direction profiles for several years from a Doppler lidar shows a consistent presence of a nocturnal low-level jet and predominant southerly wind directions through the boundary layer at SGP. The inter-annual variability at SGP is low (<3.5%), with a mean annual wind speed of approximately 7 m s -1 at 100 m above ground level. Boundary layer turbulence and moisture transport from Doppler and Raman lidars are evaluated, which provides evidence of increased water vapor mass flux into the great plains during nocturnal low-level jets. The moisture flux from nocturnal low-level jets is observed to be maximum during summer periods. A novel machine learning algorithm is implemented to accurately estimate the planetary boundary layer height, providing further insights into growth and destruction of the convective boundary layer height during various seasons and land-atmosphere conditions. The high frequency of low-level clouds during winter, spring and fall seasons is validated using the multi-sensor array and satellite estimates of cloud top height. Satellite vegetative fraction data provides insight into seasonal surface roughness and vegetation variability around SGP site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, is a meteorological dataset providing high-resolution time series, including interannual variability and model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point to indicate ranges of possible wind speeds. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: (1) Numerical simulations of wind speed and other meteorological variables covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, with high-resolution (5-minute [min], 2-kilometer [km]) data for 3 years (2018-2020): WTK-LED CONUS, WTK-LED Alaska. (2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratory covering North America, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km, hourly dataset covering 20 years (2001-2020): WTK-LED Climate. (3) Specific long-term, high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the U.S. coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset: NOW-23. The data for Hawaii include land-based data and are part of WTK-LED Hawaii. Because the accuracy of simulations from a mesoscale model, such as WRF, varies depending on the location and weather situation, and can reach up to several m/s for wind speed, we provide simulated wind speed uncertainty estimates to the community to be used in conjunction with the deterministic model simulations. This dataset was developed to satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have. Based on our validation results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED as shown in "WTK-LED Use Cases" resource below.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Regional Energy Consumption for Direct Drone and Truck Deliveries

Drone delivery, once thought of as fictitious, is becoming a reality with the efforts of both forward-looking enterprises and supportive government policies. This emerging mode of e-commerce delivery raises many concerns. One important concern is the energy efficiency of direct delivery drones compared with conventional delivery trucks at a regional systems level. Here, in this study, we develop and apply methods to quantify the regional energy impacts of drone delivery, then we assess these impacts and compare them with the impacts of truck delivery. To study this problem, we develop an optimization model that determines an optimal set of fulfillment centers (FCs) with variable service capacities that allow drones to make direct e-commerce deliveries. We adopt two drone delivery energy estimation models from the literature and use them as inputs to demonstrate the potential range of energy needs. We also develop another optimization model to account for the energy consumption of diesel trucks (DTs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We test the models using validated simulation data for the Chicago metropolitan area in the U.S. to quantify the energy implications of these three delivery modes. For drone delivery, we further extend our analyses by considering the impact of wind speed and flight patterns. Our results show that direct delivery drones require 15.8% more energy than BEVs on an average windy day, and they need 15% more energy than DTs on a very windy day. We provide essential parameter values for reproducibility and list relevant open problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for Infrasound Signals in InSight Data Using Coupled Pressure/Ground Deformation Methods

The unprecedented quality and sampling rate of seismometer and pressure sensors of the InSight Mars mission allow us to investigate infrasound through its pressure and ground deformation signals. This study focuses on compliance effects induced by acoustic waves propagating almost horizontally close to the surface. The compliance of acoustic waves is first estimated using the compliance estimates from pressure perturbations moving at wind speed. Then, a marker of compliance events is used to detect events of ground deformation induced by pressure variations, in three frequency bands from 0.4 to 3.2 Hz, from InSight sol 180 to 690. Additional selection criteria are imposed on the detected events to focus on acoustic waves and to remove various noise sources (e.g., wind effects or seismometer artifacts). After an automated selection, the visual inspection of the records allows us to validate two infrasound candidates that cannot be related to pressure perturbations moving at wind speed nor to known noise sources. For our highest quality infrasound candidate, the relation between this event and a convective vortex occuring 10 s later is tested. The azimuth of the vortex position at the time of infrasound detection is not consistent with the arrival azimuth of the suspected infrasound inferred from the polarization of seismometer records, thus the link between these two phenomena cannot be demonstrated. Further investigations would require a better understanding of wind-related noise impacting InSight sensors and of the effects of lateral variations of subsurface mechanical properties on the ground deformations induced by atmospheric pressure variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Report of the Atmosphere to Electrons Land-Based Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling Project (FY2020)

The overall goal of the Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling (MMC) project is to improve coupling between mesoscale and microscale simulations via improved guidance and new strategies for setting up simulations and for the development of new tools that can be used across the community. Including the mesoscale forcing is critical to modeling the full energy transfer across scales in the atmosphere. The project-specific objectives include: 1) To apply rigorous verification and validation (V&V) techniques to the new modeling tools that are developed as part of the project to ensure the accuracy of our codes and results and to develop estimates of the relative uncertainty. 2) To improve computational performance of the coupled MMC models through the development of methods that can be used to reduce turbulence spin-up time and hence the size of computational domains. 3) To improve representation of the surface layer in microscale models to enhance simulations of hub-height wind speed. 4) To develop guidance for the community describing the best ways to couple mesoscale and microscale models, including specific spatial scales at which the handoff to the microscale model should occur. 5) To prepare documentation and a suite of software tools that can be used across the community. And 6) To transition MMC research to the offshore environment. Major progress was made in each of these areas during FY20. The land-based portion of the project is reported herein, while the offshore portion will be reported separately. The team continued to advance the MMC tools and methodologies as well as to document their performance in journal papers and conference presentations, although several planned conferences were cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Modal Parameters of a Jacket Offshore Wind Turbine to Operational Conditions

Accurate estimation of offshore wind turbine (OWT) modal parameters has a prominent effect on the design loads, lifetime prediction, and dynamic response of the system. Modal parameters can vary during the operation of OWTs. This paper studies the variation and sensitivity analysis of an OWT’s modal parameters with respect to operational and environmental conditions. Three finite element models of a jacket-supported OWT at the Block Island Wind Farm are created within the OpenSees, SAP2000, and OpenFAST platforms and validated using experimental measurements. The OpenFAST model is used to simulate the modal parameters of the turbine under various wind speed, rotor speed, power, yaw angle, mean sea level, blade pitch angle, and soil spring values. The model-predicted modal parameters of the first fore–aft (FA) and side–side (SS) modes are compared to those identified from experimental measurements. Results from the simulations show that the first FA natural frequency and damping ratio mostly depend on the rotor speed and wind speed, respectively, while yaw angle and mean sea level do not have a visible effect. It is observed that there is about 8% stiffening in the first FA frequency and an aerodynamic damping of 7.5% during the operation of the OWT.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the HyRAM+ physics models for use with propane

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model Plus (HyRAM+) toolkit combines quantitative risk assessment with simulations of unignited dispersion, ignited turbulent diffusion flames, and indoor accumulation with delayed ignition of fuels. HyRAM+ is differentiated from HyRAM in that it includes models and leak data for other alternate fuels. The models of the physical phenomena need to be validated for each of the fuels in the toolkit. This report shows the validation for propane which is being used as a surrogate for autogas, which is a mixture of propane and butane and used in internal combustion engines in vehicles. For flame length comparisons, five previously published experiments from peer reviewed journals were used to validate our models. The validation looked at flame lengths and flame widths with respect to different leak diameters, mass flow rates, and source pressures. Most of the sources included more than one set of experimental data, which were collected using different methods (CCD cameras, IR visualization etc.). In general, HyRAM+ overpredicts the flame lengths by around 65%. For heat and radiation models, we compared the heat flux and radiation data reported from two different sources to the values calculated by HyRAM+. For higher mass flow rates, the HyRAM+ calculated flame length results gave a better estimate of what is found in the experiments (65% error), but a higher error (85%) is observed between the HyRAM+ calculated lengths and the experimental flame lengthsfor lower mass flows. Some differences can be attributed to outdoor environmental effects (i.e. wind speed) and uncertainties in jet flame shapes. The propane flame trajectory is predicted for a high Reynolds number case with Re = 12,500 and a low Reynolds number case where Re = 2,000. The Re=12,500 case which is momentum dominated matches well with the experimental flame trajectory, but the agreement for the bouancy driven low Reynolds number case is not as good. Dispersion modeling for unignited propane was also analyzed. We compared the mole fraction, mixture fraction, mean velocity, concentration half width, and inverse mass concentration over an axial distance from different credible journals to the values calculated by HyRAM+. The results display good agreement but generally, HyRAM+ predicts a wider profile for mole fraction and mixture fraction experiments. Overall, HyRAM+’s results are reasonable for predicting the flame length, heat flux, flame trajectory, and dispersion for propane and can be used in risk analyses

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗