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Offshore Wind Market Report: 2024 Edition Executive Summary

The Offshore Wind Market Report: 2024 Edition provides detailed information on the U.S. and global offshore wind energy industries to inform policymakers, researchers, and analysts about technology, economic, and market trends. The report provides the status of more than 322 operating offshore wind energy projects in the global fleet through Dec. 31, 2023, as well as the broader global pipeline of projects in various development stages. To provide current information and discussion on the emerging offshore wind industry in the United States, this report tracks significant U.S. domestic progress and events from Jan. 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mid-Atlantic Wind - Overcoming the Challenges

This study, supported by the US Department of Energy, Wind Powering America Program, Maryland Department of Natural Resources and Chesapeake Bay Foundation, analyzed barriers to wind energy development in the Mid-Atlantic region along with options for overcoming or mitigating them. The Mid-Atlantic States including Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia, have excellent wind energy potential and growing demand for electricity, but only two utility-scale projects have been installed to date. Reasons for this apathetic development of wind resources were analyzed and quantified for four markets. Specific applications are: 1) Appalachian mountain ridgeline sites, 2) on coastal plains and peninsulas, 3) at shallow water sites in Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and 4) at deeper water sites off the Atlantic coast. Each market has distinctly different opportunities and barriers. The primary barriers to wind development described in this report can be grouped into four categories; state policy and regulatory issues, wind resource technical uncertainty, economic viability, and public interest in environmental issues. The properties of these typologies are not mutually independent and do interact. The report concluded that there are no insurmountable barriers to land-based wind energy projects and they could be economically viable today. Likewise potential sites in sheltered shallow waters in regional bay and sounds have been largely overlooked but could be viable currently. Offshore ocean-based applications face higher costs and technical and wind resource uncertainties. The ongoing research and development program, revision of state incentive policies, additional wind measurement efforts, transmission system expansion, environmental baseline studies and outreach to private developers and stakeholders are needed to reduce barriers to wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mid-Atlantic Wind - Overcoming the Challenges

This study, supported by the US Department of Energy, Wind Powering America Program, Maryland Department of Natural Resources and Chesapeake Bay Foundation, analyzed barriers to wind energy development in the Mid-Atlantic region along with options for overcoming or mitigating them. The Mid-Atlantic States including Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia, have excellent wind energy potential and growing demand for electricity, but only two utility-scale projects have been installed to date. Reasons for this apathetic development of wind resources were analyzed and quantified for four markets. Specific applications are: 1) Appalachian mountain ridgeline sites, 2) on coastal plains and peninsulas, 3) at shallow water sites in Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and 4) at deeper water sites off the Atlantic coast. Each market has distinctly different opportunities and barriers. The primary barriers to wind development described in this report can be grouped into four categories; state policy and regulatory issues, wind resource technical uncertainty, economic viability, and public interest in environmental issues. The properties of these typologies are not mutually independent and do interact. The report concluded that there are no insurmountable barriers to land-based wind energy projects and they could be economically viable today. Likewise potential sites in sheltered shallow waters in regional bay and sounds have been largely overlooked but could be viable currently. Offshore ocean-based applications face higher costs and technical and wind resource uncertainties. The ongoing research and development program, revision of state incentive policies, additional wind measurement efforts, transmission system expansion, environmental baseline studies and outreach to private developers and stakeholders are needed to reduce barriers to wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Valuation of Distributed Wind Turbines Providing Multiple Market Services

The role of wind turbines has traditionally been limited to providing energy capacity to the grid, but the availability of smart inverters and recent regulatory changes provide the technical and policy capability for wind turbines to also provide ancillary services. However, in contrast to the technical and policy aspects, the valuation of distributed wind turbines providing such services has not been thoroughly studied. This paper presents an optimal market-participation method for distributed wind turbines and valuates different strategies in California Independent System Operator’s balancing area. The services include energy capacity, regulation up and down, and reserves. An optimization problem is formulated to determine optimal power output for each service and demonstrated using historical data for one complete year. The revenues from multiple services are quantified, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to relate market prices with revenues. It is found that the optimal strategy generates 6% more revenue compared to the revenue from participating in the energy market only. Also, the reduced energy prices in future scenarios increase the relative importance of market participation in ancillary services.

Bhatti, Bilal Ahmad↗

2015 Wind Technologies Market Report

This annual report--now in its tenth year--provides a detailed overview of developments and trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a particular focus on 2015. The report begins with an overview of key installation trends and then covers an array of industry and technology trends. The report also discusses project performance, wind turbine prices, project costs, operations and maintenance expenses, and prices paid for wind power in the United States. The report examines policy and market factors impacting the domestic wind power market and provides a preview of possible near-term market developments, expenses, and prices paid for wind power in the United States. The report examines policy and market factors impacting the domestic wind power market and provides a preview of possible near-term market developments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Global Onshore Wind Speed Distribution

Wind power, a renewable energy source, can play an important role in electrical energy generation. Information regarding wind energy potential is important both for energy related modeling and for decision-making in the policy community. While wind speed datasets with high spatial and temporal resolution are often ultimately used for detailed planning, simpler assumptions are often used in analysis work. An accurate representation of the wind speed frequency distribution is needed in order to properly characterize wind energy potential. Using a power density method, this study estimated global variation in wind parameters as fitted to a Weibull density function using NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data. The estimated Weibull distribution performs well in fitting the time series wind speed data at the global level according to R2, root mean square error, and power density error. The spatial, decadal, and seasonal patterns of wind speed distribution were then evaluated. We also analyzed the potential error in wind power estimation when a commonly assumed Rayleigh distribution (Weibull k = 2) is used. We find that the assumption of the same Weibull parameter across large regions can result in substantial errors. While large-scale wind speed data is often presented in the form of average wind speeds, these results highlight the need to also provide information on the wind speed distribution.

Zhou, Yuyu↗

Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment

This analysis explores the potential effects of wind production tax credit expiration and various extension scenarios on future wind deployment with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a model of the U.S. electricity sector. The analysis does not estimate the potential implications on government tax revenue associated with the PTC. Key findings include: Under a scenario in which the PTC is not extended and all other policies remain unchanged, wind capacity additions are expected to be between 3 and 5 GW per year from 2013-2020; PTC extension options that ramp-down from the current level to zero-credit by year-end 2022 appear to be insufficient to support deployment at the recent historical average; Extending the PTC at its historical level may provide the best opportunity to support deployment consistent with recent levels across a range of potential market conditions; it therefore may also provide the best opportunity to sustain wind power installation and manufacturing sector at current levels.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Faster Than You Think: Renewable Energy and Developing Countries

Since 2007, large and unexpected declines in generation costs for renewable energy systems, particularly solar but also wind, combined with policy measures designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions, have created a paradigm shift in energy systems. Variable renewable energy now dominates total investment in electricity power generation systems. This dominance of variable renewable energy in investment has thrust the systems integration task of matching electricity supply with demand to center stage, presenting new challenges for energy policy and planning as well as for the institutional organization of power systems. Despite these challenges, there is ample reason to believe that variable renewables will attain very high levels of penetration into energy systems, particularly in regions well endowed with solar and wind potential. Similar to their success with mobile phone telephony, many developing countries have a significant opportunity to leapfrog directly to more advanced energy technologies that are low cost, reliable, environmentally more benign, and well suited to serving dispersed rural populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2016 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region

Significant expansion of wind energy development will be required to achieve the scenarios outlined in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE)'s Wind Vision: 20% wind energy by 2030 and 35% wind energy by 2050. Wind energy currently provides nearly 5% of the nation's electricity but has the potential to provide much more. The wind industry and the DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office are addressing technical wind energy challenges, such as reducing turbine costs and increasing energy production and reliability. The Office recognizes that public acceptance of wind energy can be challenging, depending on the proximity of proposed wind farms to local populations. Informed decision makers and communities equipped with unbiased information about the benefits and impacts of wind energy development are better prepared to navigate the sometimes contentious development process. In 2014, DOE established six Regional Resource Centers (RRCs) across the United States to communicate unbiased, credible information about wind energy to stakeholders through regional networks. The RRCs provide ready access to this information to familiarize the public with wind energy; raise awareness about potential benefits and issues; and disseminate data on siting considerations such as turbine sound and wildlife habitat protection. This document summarizes the status and drivers for U.S. wind energy development during 2016. RRC leaders provided a report of wind energy development in their regions, which was combined with findings from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers to provide an account of the state of the regions, as well as updates on developments in individual states. NREL researchers and state partners added updates for all states that are not directly supported by an RRC. Accounts for each region include updates on renewable portfolio standards, the Clean Power Plan, workforce development, manufacturing and economic development, and individual state updates for installed wind capacity, ongoing policy developments, planned projects and their status, transmission progress reports, etc. This report also highlights the efforts of the RRCs to engage stakeholders in their individual regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

WINS. Market Simulation Tool for Facilitating Wind Energy Integration

Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practices can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision results are often text-based demonstrations. WINS includes a powerful visualization tool and user interface capability for transmission analyses, planning, and assessment, which will be of great interest to power market participants, power system planners and operators, and state and federal regulatory entities; and (3) WINS can handle extended transmission models for wind integration studies. WINS models include limitations on transmission flow as well as bus voltage for analyzing power system states. The existing decision tools often consider transmission flow constraints (dc power flow) alone which could result in the over-utilization of existing resources when analyzing wind integration. WINS can be used to assist power market participants including transmission companies, independent system operators, power system operators in vertically integrated utilities, wind energy developers, and regulatory agencies to analyze economics, security, and reliability of various options for wind integration including transmission upgrades and the planning of new transmission facilities. WINS can also be used by industry for the offline training of reliability and operation personnel when analyzing wind integration uncertainties, identifying critical spots in power system operation, analyzing power system vulnerabilities, and providing credible decisions for examining operation and planning options for wind integration. Researches in this project on wind integration included (1) Development of WINS; (2) Transmission Congestion Analysis in the Eastern Interconnection; (3) Analysis of 2030 Large-Scale Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern Interconnection; (4) Large-scale Analysis of 2018 Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern U.S. Interconnection. The research resulted in 33 papers, 9 presentations, 9 PhD degrees, 4 MS degrees, and 7 awards. The education activities in this project on wind energy included (1) Wind Energy Training Facility Development; (2) Wind Energy Course Development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2017 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region

This document summarizes the status and drivers for U.S. wind energy development during 2017. Regional Resource Center (RRC) leaders provided a report of wind energy development in their regions, which was combined with findings from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers to provide an account of the state of the regions, as well as updates on developments in individual states. NREL researchers and state partners added updates for all states that are not directly supported by an RRC. Accounts for each region include updates on renewable portfolio standards, workforce development, manufacturing and economic development, and individual state updates for installed wind capacity, ongoing policy developments, planned projects and their status, transmission progress reports, etc. This report also highlights the efforts of the RRCs to engage stakeholders in their individual regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Early nuclear retirements in deregulated U.S. markets: Causes, implications and policy options

Here, electricity prices have fallen significantly since 2008, putting commercial nuclear reactors in the United States under substantial financial pressure. In this market environment driven by persistently low natural gas prices and stagnant electricity demand, we estimate that about two thirds of the 100 GW nuclear capacity are uncompetitive over the next few years under the current trajectory. Among those, 18 GW are retiring or are merchant plants at high risk of retiring prematurely. The potential consequences of the hypothetical withdrawal of 20 GW of nuclear capacity include: 1) a ~3.2% increase in carbon emissions if replaced by gas-fired units or 2) a significant increase in cost if replaced by renewables. Without a carbon price, out-of-the-market payments would be needed to effectively maintain merchant nuclear capacity. Filling the revenue gap would come at a fleet-average cost of 3.5-5.5/ MWh for these plants, which is much lower than the cost of subsidizing wind power. The policy support could take the form of direct zero-emission credits, renewable portfolio standard expansion, or clean capacity market mechanisms. As a last resort, the exercise of a new mothballing status could prevent the irreversible retirement of nuclear power assets.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costs for transmission systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Offshore Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition

The Offshore Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition provides detailed information on the U.S. and global offshore wind energy industries to inform policymakers, researchers, and analysts about technology, economic, and market trends. The scope of the report covers the status of over 293 global operating offshore wind energy projects as well as the broader global pipeline of projects in various stages of development through December 31, 2022. To provide up-to-date information and discussion on this emerging industry in the United States, this report tracks the significant U.S. domestic industry progress and events from January 1, 2022, through May 31, 2023. The U.S. offshore wind energy project development pipeline has reached a potential generating capacity of over 52 gigawatts, and the industry has seen strong support from state and federal governments (such as from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the announced Floating Offshore Wind Shot to reduce the cost of floating wind by 70%). There are contracts for over 17 gigawatts of the electricity from these offshore wind projects and state policies are in place to procure over 42 gigawatts by 2040. Although some projects are facing economic headwinds due to rising costs and higher interest rates (corresponding to project cost increases of 11% - 30% in 2022), there has still been significant investment in a domestic supply chain (including manufacturing facilities, new vessels, and upgraded or planned ports). Technologies continue to evolve as offshore wind turbines in the 15-megawatt class advance towards commercial production. Key offshore wind energy market indicators, such as commercial leasing, state energy planning targets, procurement policies, offtake agreements, and federal support for U.S. jobs and supply chain development, point toward sustained market growth when viewed together, but the macroeconomic hurdles facing the first generation of commercial projects could significantly stunt that growth.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Impact of Sound Ordinances on the Land-Based Wind Technical Potential of the United States

The rapid rise of sound ordinances has affected wind energy siting across state, county and local jurisdictions. Quantifying this impact on wind energy potential is required for effective energy planning. However, complex turbine sound modelling combined with evolving policies have contributed to limited understanding of these policies' impact on national wind technical potential. Here we develop an approach to evaluate wind turbine sound profiles across the United States and calculate setback distances from residential structures to translate sound-related policies into spatial turbine siting criteria. Compared to a baseline scenario that ignores sound, we find an 8% reduction in wind energy capacity when accounting for existing sound ordinances. Further, extrapolating a 45-A-weighted decibel (dBA) limit nationwide shows a 29% decline, disproportionately taken from high-quality and low-cost wind capacity. This reveals sound ordinances as a major factor in determining wind technical potential that could challenge US decarbonization goals reliant on wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multi-Agent Safe Policy Learning for Power Management of Networked Microgrids

This paper presents a supervised multi-agent safe policy learning (SMAS-PL) method for optimal power management of networked microgrids (MGs) in distribution systems. While unconstrained reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are black-box decision models that could fail to satisfy grid operational constraints, our proposed method considers AC power flow equations and other operational limits. Accordingly, the training process employs the gradient information of operational constraints to ensure that the optimal control policy functions generate safe and feasible decisions. Furthermore, we have developed a distributed consensus-based optimization approach to train the agents’ policy functions while maintaining MGs’ privacy and data ownership boundaries. After training, the learned optimal policy functions can be safely used by the MGs to dispatch their local resources, without the need to solve a complex optimization problem from scratch. Lastly, numerical experiments have been devised to verify the performance of the proposed method.

, policy gradient↗

Solar power

This paper describes categories of solar technologies and identifies those that are economic. It compares the private costs of power from solar, wind, nuclear, coal, oil, and gas generators. In the southern United States, the private costs of building and generating electricity from new solar and wind power plants are less than the private cost of electricity from a new nuclear power plant. Solar power is more valuable than nuclear power since all solar power is available during peak and midpeak periods. Half of the power from nuclear generators is off-peak power and therefore is less valuable. Reliability is important in determining the value of wind and nuclear power. Damage from air pollution, when factored into the cost of power from fossil fuels, alters the cost comparison in favor of solar and wind power. Some policies are more effective at encouraging alternative energy technologies that pollute less and improve national security.

Walton, A. L.↗