Reconciling Conflicting Estimates of the Beirut Explosion Yield and Mushroom Cloud Height - Effects of an Aqueous Near Source Environment
Abstract not provided.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
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A Method for Assessing Effectiveness and Technical Capabilities Required for Integrated Deterrence (NSLP-Final Report-Draft2022)
The United States faces an ever-increasingly multi-polar security environment dominated by great power competition with China and a lingering Russian threat as well as from would-be regional hegemons led by ambitions from Iran and North Korea. Our adversaries are pursuing and expanding the strategic means by-which they have an asymmetric offset (e.g., cyber, space, and other modes below the level of armed conflict). To combat and deter against the widening range of hostile actions, the U.S. must have additional capabilities with-which to deter. All of which drives us towards a more thoughtful integrated approach to deterrence, attempting to best align deterrent tools with the adversary actions in order to maximize the credibility of our deterrent. Such an approach complicates our deterrence strategy and demands a methodology to assess whether the U.S. has the deterrent tools necessary to deter the adversarial actions most costly to the U.S. To address this complexity, we create a framework to comprehensively and systematically assess our deterrent tools as qualitatively measured against the adversarial actions we wish to deter. Deterrence is ultimately an operation in the cognitive domain and at the heart of the framework presented here is the fundamental deterrence calculus which we use as the defining measure of whether a tool will credibly deter a given action. We describe the eight levers of the deterrence calculus and distill these levers to four products that are used to qualitatively assess the overall effectiveness of deterrence tools against adversarial actions. Credibility is determined by two principal variables: the technical credibility of the deterrent tool, and the principle of proportionality. Technical credibility of realized deterrence products is assessed through development of key mission requirements and hardware (e.g., components) that will impose costs, deny benefits, or encourage restraint. The principle of proportionality qualitatively asserts that for a deterrent tool to be cognitively credible, the costs imposed against, or benefits denied by, an action are commensurate to the magnitude of costs received from the adversarial action. By basing this framework on these two fundamentals, it is possible to compare deterrent tools in a systematic approach across the broad spectrum of hostile actions.
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High-Altitude Burst Observed at Large Ground Ranges
The rise times computed by the author’s three-dimensional geomagnetic electromagnetic pulse (EMP) code MACSYNC for a high-altitude nuclear burst increase from a fraction of a shake under the burst to tens of shakes at a 1,000 km ground range (one shake equals 10 nanoseconds). Computations for similar geometries with the frequently used one-dimensional spherical EMP codes CHAP and HEMP show similar rise times under the burst, but rise times that are an order-of-magnitude shorter at large ground ranges. This difference is likely due to the inability of these codes to treat the three-dimensional aspect of the slanted EMP incidence on the atmosphere.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Nuclear decisionmaking, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment
The complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could significantly impact nuclear decision-making, particular in an escalating regional conventional conflict. Such conflicts may present governments with a range of nuclear decisions: whether to introduce a nuclear dimension to a crisis, whether to cross the nuclear threshold through limited nuclear use, how to respond to a limited nuclear attack, whether to expand the scope and intensity of initial limited attacks, and whether to escalate to an all-out nuclear war. At each decision point, EDTs create potential risks as well as rewards. EDTs are likely to influence the context for nuclear decision-making and the choices between different courses of action. EDTs could impact the context of nuclear decision-making by improving or degrading situational assessment, the ability to deliberate, and the ability to manage one’s nuclear forces. EDTs could influence the choice between nuclear restraint or escalation by affecting the perceived strategic benefits, escalatory risks, and operational requirements associated with different courses of action. Even though particular combinations of EDTs could precipitate nuclear use in some scenarios, they could encourage restraint in others. The impact and relevance of the same combinations of EDTs might be different at various nuclear decision points. The availability of specific combinations of EDTs at different stages of a conflict would also vary because of the attrition and one-time-use nature of some capabilities. In later stages of a conflict, the decision maker’s confidence in different combinations of EDTs would depend on their previous experience in using them. While the interactions of EDTs are likely to bring additional complexity to a nuclear decision-making process, EDTs are also not the only source of complexity. Broader strategic, military, operational, legal, moral, and emotional factors are also likely to play an important role. These factors may dominate decision-making in a range of potential cases.
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S&TR Oct/Nov 2025 Research SLAM! issue
Postdoctoral research offers value to Lawrence Livermore’s scientific and technological efforts. Uplifting early-career researchers as the next generation of scientists benefits their futures and the Laboratory’s. Taking inspiration from the University of California Grad Slam, which challenges participants to explain their theses in three minutes, the Research SLAM at Livermore provides postdoctoral researchers an opportunity to share their research while honing their communication skills and preparing them for a career in collaborative science. The first spinoff of the Livermore SLAM extended the competition to all Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories in the San Francisco Bay Area. A competition among DOE national laboratories across the country has followed, spurring a nationwide appreciation for budding scientists and the art of connecting high-level science with the nonexpert.
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Chemical Fractionation is not a Constant: Revisiting Bomb Vapor Chemistry
The debris produced by a nuclear explosion forms a hazard to response, can serve as a record used to interpret the event, and may persist in the environment necessitating long term management. Hence, understanding the radiochemical inventory of nuclear debris remains an important area of study, particularly the behavior and resulting distribution of actinides and fission products. Despite formation in a high energy environment, it has been recognized for decades that the chemical and isotopic composition of debris rarely, if ever, captures a homogenized blend of the bomb products. Instead, during cooling and debris formation, a variety of chemical processes cause separation of the different constituents. This process of chemical fractionation creates debris with a variety of different radionuclide inventories. Here we provide an overdue re-examination of our historic basis for understanding chemical fractionation in nuclear explosions through the context of new characterization of a large set of historical nuclear test data. Finally, we then discuss the implications of our findings for advancing models of radionuclide distribution and postdetonation chemical fractionation.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century
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Military science - Nuclear weapons and effects, Po↗
How Might China View the Changing Nuclear Balance?
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Military science - Nuclear weapons and effects, Po↗
Towards Strategic Dialogue with China
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Military science - Nuclear weapons and effects, Po↗
The Roles Of Science In National Security Policymaking: A Case Study Of EMP
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Military science - Nuclear weapons and effects, Po↗
Operation Upshot-Knothole
A thundering boom and sheet of fire announced a dramatic, once in a lifetime event – the firing of a nuclear projectile from a 280 mm cannon. Travelling seven miles downrange, the projectile detonated 500 feet over the Nevada Test Site’s Frenchman Flat with a force of fifteen kilotons. Although the test was successful, the massive cannon, designed for tactical battlefield use, had a critical flaw. It was too large and cumbersome for mobile combat. The cannon test, codenamed Grable, was part of Operation Upshot-Knothole, the fourth test series conducted in Nevada. Beginning with the Annie test on March 17, 1953, and concluding with the Climax test on June 4th, the Operation consisted of three airdrops, seven tower detonations, and the one artillery shot. As with previous Nevada tests, the demarcation between the weapon development series, Upshot, and the DOD effects tests, Knothole, was blurred. All eleven tests generated data in support of weapon development as well as tactical battlefield applications. During Upshot-Knothole, the University of California Radiation Laboratory (UCRL), conducted its first ever tests, Ruth and Ray. Although neither test was successful, these failures, along with another a year later at Operation Castle, provided the new laboratory with design data leading to future successful tests. The Federal Civil Defense Administration (FCDA) participated in a test series with the general goal of preparing for societal recovery from a nuclear attack. Known as Operation Doorstep, the FCDA’s experiments evaluated the effects of a nuclear attack on food supplies, housing and urban structures, and even a copse of trees transplanted from nearby Mt. Charleston. A contingent of the press witnessed test Annie from an outcropping of rocks, subsequently named News Nob. The presence of the news media, along with the FCDA’s participation, marked a fundamental change in the Nevada test program - a change that that now included the general populace, whose survival was, of course, the rationale for testing. The Department of Defense continued and expanded its Desert Rock exercises of troop exercises, helicopter operations, and evaluation of blast damage to military aircraft, tanks, and guns. Annie, Nancy, Badger, Simon, Encore, and Grable involved larger numbers of personnel than the other five shots. Below is an edited and condensed account of Desert Rock activities compiled by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
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An Architectural Survey of the U12G Tunnel Historic District, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in conjunction with the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO), proposes to demolish six buildings and three storage areas located at the U12g Tunnel portal area in Area 12 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The buildings are 12-358 (Signal Vault); 12-201800 (Storage Quonset Hut); 12-202555 (Walker Shack); 12-868 (Pipe Assembly); 12-B100933 (Electrical Shop); 12-B100944 (Conference Room); and Storage Area 1; Storage Area 2; and Storage Area 3. The buildings and storage areas were selected for demolition as part of the DOE’s Real Property Efficiency Plan to reduce the footprint of unused and non-operational facilities on the NNSS. They are all vacant and have no proposed uses for current or upcoming NNSS missions. Demolition activities constitute an undertaking subject to review under Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) (54 United States Code [USC] § 306101) and its implementing regulations, 36 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 800. Identification efforts began with resources proposed for demolition in federal Fiscal Year (FY) 23. Four buildings were proposed to be demolished in FY23 (12-358, 12-868, 12-201800, and 12-202555). These buildings and the U12g Tunnel Historic District (SHPO No. D444) were recorded in Identification, Evaluation, and Finding of Adverse Effect for the Proposed Demolition of Five Buildings in Area 12, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (Menocal et al. 2023). Identification efforts indicated three buildings (12-358, 12-201800, and 12-868) supported nuclear testing in the U12g Tunnel. The fourth building post-dated the use of U12g Tunnel for nuclear testing activities. The report recommended that three of the four buildings (12-358, 12-201800, 12-868) and the U12g Tunnel Historic District may be eligible for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP). The report also found that the undertaking would have an adverse effect on the three buildings and on the historic district. The Nevada State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) concurred with the report’s findings (Reed 2023). The U12g Tunnel was determined eligible as a historic district under the Secretary of the Interior’s (SOI) Significance Criterion A, at the local level, in the context of the Cold War as an underground testing environment for the development of nuclear weapons and to assess the effects of a nuclear explosion on materials and equipment with a period of significance from 1959 to 1971. It was also determined eligible under Significance Criterion C for embodying the distinctive characters of a horizontal tunnel complex used for nuclear testing and as a significant and distinguishable entity. The three buildings were determined to be contributing elements of the district. The undertaking was expanded with the addition of two buildings and three storage areas proposed to be demolished and located within U12g Tunnel Historic District in FY24. These five resources (12-B100933, 12-B100944, and Storage Areas 1, 2, and 3) were recorded in Supplemental Identification, Evaluation, and Finding of Effect for Additional Proposed Demolition at U12g Tunnel, Area 12, Nevada national Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (Brannan et al. 2024). Identification efforts indicated that the two buildings and Storage Area 1 supported nuclear testing in the U12g Tunnel. Storage Area 1 and Storage Area 2 post-dated the nuclear testing activities at U12g Tunnel and were not recommended as contributing elements to the district. The report also found that the undertaking would have an adverse effect on the newly identified buildings and one storage area and on the historic district. The SHPO concurred that the expanded undertaking would result in adverse effects to historic properties (Reed 2025). To resolve these adverse effects, NNSA/NFO, in consultation with the SHPO, is following standard mitigation as stipulated in the 2024 Programmatic Agreement DE-GM58-22NA25554 Among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the NNSS PA). The standard mitigation measures are outlined in Appendix D of the NNSS PA. As such, this architectural survey has been prepared in accordance with Appendix D of the NNSS PA and follows the report format outlined in Appendix F. It includes a historic context that describes the district’s origin, history, and support functions, its significance in the context of nuclear testing on the NNSS, and identifies contributing and non-contributing elements within the district. The report is accompanied by Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) forms for individual resources and a Historic District Resource Assessment (HDRA) for the U12g Tunnel Historic District. In total, this architectural report identified 32 primary resources within the district boundary. Six of the primary resources were previously identified as contributing elements. An additional 17 resources are recommended as contributing elements to the district for a total of 23 contributing elements. The other nine resources identified are recommended as non-contributing elements to the district.
12-201800↗
The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility Capability eXpansion (DCX) Strategy
The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility is a vital and important part of the Nation’s nuclear security enterprise. The Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/ NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP) identifies DARHT as a weapons mission critical facility along with the need to modernize DARHT to support weapons modernization efforts. With more than two decades of operations, DARHT has a storied history. Conceived in the 1970s, constructed in the 1990s, and operational since 2000, DARHT has advanced from open-air hydrodynamic experiments (hydros) to foam-confined hydros, to vessel-confined hydros, and in 2022, the 75 th hydro was successfully completed. Radiography has advanced from a single-axis, single-pulse system to a dual-axis, multi-pulse capability to variable fields of view (VFV) on both accelerators. The culmination of these experiences, accomplishments, and advancements has brought us to a very important question: What do the next two decades at DARHT look like? The world is not the same place it was in the 1990s when construction at DARHT was in progress. Evolving threats, an expanding mission, and technology changes necessitate adaptation. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) states that the nuclear weapons infrastructure has suffered the effects of age and underfunding with no margin for further delay in recapitalizing the physical infrastructure. To adapt, the aging facility, accelerators, vessels, and detector systems require improvements to ensure DARHT remains the Nation’s hydrodynamic data foundation for stockpile certification, safety, surety, and global security threats.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
Thermal Effects on Gas Pipelines
Irradiance from a nuclear weapon can be the source of heat on gas infrastructure. This exposure when sufficiently intense can result in failure. An estimation tool for this behavior is the object of this study. A lumped capacity technique is employed to estimate the system temperature rise. The temperature rise is related to three possible outcomes. Two of the outcomes are relatively certain failure and relatively certain lack of effect. A large range of exposures are assessed with the model, and a relatively small number of cases are in the uncertain range. This model is presented as a tool that can be used in conjunction with a structural assessment model to sensitivities to the overpressure and shock to screen potential outcomes from subject events .
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Fallout Cloud Regimes
The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and other organizations maintain operational nuclear explosion and atmospheric dispersion models to provide critical guidance on the expected effects of an accidental or deliberate explosion of a nuclear weapon (in this paper simply referred to as “device”). To be effective, these models must represent, as accurately as possible, the complex interactions of the blast, fire, and residual radiological hazards with the environment and population. One hundred atmospheric nuclear tests that form the basis for many models were conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) (now referred to as the Nevada Nuclear Security Site, NNSS) in a dry desert environment. Other environments should be studied, but have less data available and are beyond the scope of the work presented in this paper. The debris clouds produced by the NTS tests, frequently called “mushroom clouds,” are familiar, with common structural elements such as a buoyant cap connected to a skirt of raised dust at the desert surface by a thin, dirt-filled stem. The film scanning project at LLNL has investigated historical film records of nuclear weapons tests. Here, we summarize findings showing that the mushroom cloud behavior for historic U.S. tests conducted in Nevada, has similar characteristics based on the distance of the device from the ground surface or Height of Burst (HOB), scaled by the energy release, or yield, of the device. This scaled height is referred to as the scaled-height-of-burst (SHOB). The findings discussed below show that mushroom clouds look and behave similarly when detonated at the same SHOB. The amount of residual radiation that is produced by a nuclear detonation is proportional to the yield. But, the amount of that residual radiation that actually becomes local fallout is strongly dependent on the SHOB and the type of surface over which the detonation occurs. In order to develop a more comprehensive model that predicts the fraction of the residual radiation that becomes local fallout, it is convenient to define a series of regimes based on SHOB values in which all detonations that occur within a given regime can be modeled using the same algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for defining different regimes, and, in a qualitative way, a basic understanding of the fundamental characteristics of each of these regimes.
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Potential applications of microbial genomics in nuclear non-proliferation
As nuclear technology evolves in response to increased demand for diversification and decarbonization of the energy sector, new and innovative approaches are needed to effectively identify and deter the proliferation of nuclear arms, while ensuring safe development of global nuclear energy resources. Preventing the use of nuclear material and technology for unsanctioned development of nuclear weapons has been a long-standing challenge for the International Atomic Energy Agency and signatories of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Environmental swipe sampling has proven to be an effective technique for characterizing clandestine proliferation activities within and around known locations of nuclear facilities and sites. However, limited tools and techniques exist for detecting nuclear proliferation in unknown locations beyond the boundaries of declared nuclear fuel cycle facilities, representing a critical gap in non-proliferation safeguards. Microbiomes, defined as “characteristic communities of microorganisms” found in specific habitats with distinct physical and chemical properties, can provide valuable information about the conditions and activities occurring in the surrounding environment. Microorganisms are known to inhabit radionuclide-contaminated sites, spent nuclear fuel storage pools, and cooling systems of water-cooled nuclear reactors, where they can cause radionuclide migration and corrosion of critical structures. Microbial transformation of radionuclides is a well-established process that has been documented in numerous field and laboratory studies. These studies helped to identify key bacterial taxa and microbially-mediated processes that directly and indirectly control the transformation, mobility, and fate of radionuclides in the environment. Expanding on this work, other studies have used microbial genomics integrated with machine learning models to successfully monitor and predict the occurrence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and other process wastes in the environment, indicating the potential role of nuclear activities in shaping microbial community structure and function. Results of this previous body of work suggest fundamental geochemical-microbial interactions occurring at nuclear fuel cycle facilities could give rise to microbiomes that are characteristic of nuclear activities. These microbiomes could provide valuable information for monitoring nuclear fuel cycle facilities, planning environmental sampling campaigns, and developing biosensor technology for the detection of undisclosed fuel cycle activities and proliferation concerns.
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Effects on Structure’s Electromagnetic Shielding Effectiveness Considering Penetrating Cables Coupling Energy from HEMP Event
The threat of weaponized electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is a serious factor in defining power system resilience. Without adequate knowledge regarding the interaction between EMP and power system infrastructure, system personnel may be unable to plan for and operate during an EMP event and major blackouts could occur. This work studies the interaction between EMP and structures, specifically analyzing the shielding effectiveness of buildings emulating power generation facilities. The main focus is to determine how penetrating cables affect the structure’s shielding effectiveness. Several cable parameters including height above ground, radius, termination configuration, and length are analyzed via computational electromagnetic simulations. Results demonstrated penetrating cables can significantly diminish a structure’s shielding effectiveness, especially the electric field. Length of cable is the most influential parameter.
Mignardot, David↗
Sandia National Laboratories FY20 Progress Report
The Energetic Neutrons campaign led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) had a successful year testing electronic devices and printed circuit boards (PCBs) under 14 MeV neutron irradiation at OMEGA. During FY20 the Energetic Neutrons campaign increased the number and complexity of experiments, continued collaborations with external organizations, and generated knowledge that supports SNL’s National Security mission. In FY20 the Energetic Neutrons campaign was executed by an early career team led by a new PI. The SNL team members were trained to take over new responsibilities during the shot day to increase the number and complexity of experiments in the campaigns. Also, in FY20 for the first time the Energetic Neutrons campaign had a graduate student contributing with pre and post-irradiation characterizations at SNL of the semiconductor devices irradiated at OMEGA. In FY20 SNL collaborated with the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center (AFNWC) and supported experiments related to radiation effects in semiconductor devices. SNL also gave the opportunity to ride along to Los Alamos National Laboratory and multiple scientists from MIT and LLE. SNL continued using the last two generations of the Neutron Effects Diagnostics (NEDs) to field active and passive experiments but also redesigned the latest generation of the NEDs to accommodate larger components and improve the vacuum sealing as shown in figure 1a. The redesigned NEDs allowed SNL to perform active tests of a high voltage (HV) PCB for the first time at OMEGA; where signals before, during and after the irradiation were recorded. The HV PCB installed in one of the SNL NEDs is shown in figure 1b where a 3D-printed nosecone was used to check for mechanical and electrical interference. Passive irradiations of multiple components were followed up with leakage current, gain measurements and radiation-induced defect characterization.
42 ENGINEERING↗