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At least 37 records · Page 2

Light-Duty Vehicle Choice Modeling and Transportation Decarbonization Analysis

Light-duty vehicles are the biggest contributor of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. This project uses the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) to explore pathways to light-duty decarbonization through technology improvements being researched by the Department of Energies Vehicle Technology Office. It includes sensitivities to market conditions, such as proposed vehicle purchase incentives, and changes to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas regulations. The results suggest that achieving the Vehicle Technology Office's research goals will lead to one third of the annual carbon emissions by 2050, primarily through vehicle electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Estimating the Breakeven Cost of Delivered Electricity to Charge Class 8 Electric Tractors

As vehicle electrification expands from the light-duty sector to include larger commercial medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, businesses need to decide if electrification is appropriate for their fleets. A key factor in this decision will be the total cost of ownership for on-road electric Class 8 tractors compared to their combustion counterparts. This report examines the breakeven price of electricity for electric Class 8 tractor charging to address its importance in the total cost of ownership for the operation of an electrified fleet and to account for the inherent differences of higher-power charging. To understand the likely cost of delivered energy--in this report the breakeven price--to charge electric tractors, this study followed an analysis framework that considers a wide range of factors to estimate the breakeven price to charge at various station types. This requires an estimation of electric vehicle adoption trajectories and analysis of real-world fleet data to assess energy needs of heavy-duty electric tractors and to determine expected charging station demand over time. Station demand informs the level of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) deployment that is necessary at each station type, as well as the site utilization and anticipated load profiles. Then, by accounting for a wide range of capital investments, operating costs, and other expenses, a breakeven price of energy is determined.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

EV Watts Public Database

With the rapid increase in vehicle electrification, there is a need for up-to-date, publicly available national data to understand end user charging and driving patterns, as well as vehicle and infrastructure performance, to inform research planning. Energetics worked with various partners to collect and analyze plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) data from 2019 to 2022. All sensitive attributes have been removed from this publicly available dataset. Researchers from one of the partner national labs under non-disclosure agreement (NDA) can request access to additional attributes by reaching out to evwattsdata@energetics.com.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗

Quantifying policy gaps for achieving the net-zero GHG emissions target in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market through electrification

The U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) industry, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector, is embracing decarbonization. Considering only electrification pathways, this study uses publicly-available tools – MA3T and VISION on vehicle market penetration, fleet accounting and life-cycle analysis to quantify the policy gaps for LDVs to achieve the net-zero GHG emissions target in nine vehicle penetration cases under two electricity mix scenarios, including the U.S. administration's decarbonization strategy – 100% clean electricity by 2035. The MA3T model is a multinomial discrete choice model for market share projection by vehicle technology, and the VISION is a vehicle stocks and GHG emissions projection model by using vehicle and travel characteristics. This study projects the impacts of technology and policy enforcement on shaping the dynamics and decarbonization of the LDV market. Additionally, achieving the expected improvement of battery technology and charging infrastructure is critical but can only reduce the 2050 GHG emissions to 48–54% of the 2020 level under the electricity renewable mix scenario. It is almost impossible to achieve a 100% battery electric vehicle stock by 2050 and the 2050 net-zero target in the LDV industry unless ban of internal combustion engine technology is implemented starting in 2035 and under the 2035 100% clean electricity scenario. These extreme conditions also sacrifice most from the consumer welfare perspective. A greater policy forcing intensity accelerates plug-in electric vehicle penetration, while with declining marginal effect and reduced consumer welfare. Among the investigated policy scenarios, the policy forcing intensity equivalent to a fuel tax of $1–2 per gasoline gallon reduces the most GHG emissions while keeping a positive consumer welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Framework to Analyze the Requirements of a Multiport Megawatt-Level Charging Station for Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles

Widespread adoption of heavy-duty (HD) electric vehicles (EVs) will soon necessitate the use of megawatt (MW)-scale charging stations to charge high-capacity HD EV battery packs. Such a station design needs to anticipate possible station traffic, average and peak power demand, and charging/wait time targets to improve throughput and maximize revenue-generating operations. High-power direct current charging is an attractive candidate for MW-scale charging stations at the time of this study, but there are no precedents for such a station design for HD vehicles. We present a modeling and data analysis framework to elucidate the dependencies of a MW-scale station operation on vehicle traffic data and station design parameters and how that impacts vehicle electrification. This framework integrates an agent-based charging station model with vehicle schedules obtained through real-world vehicle telemetry data analysis to explore the station design and operation space. A case study applies this framework to a Class 8 vehicle telemetry dataset and uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore various design considerations for MW-scale charging stations and EV battery technologies. The results show a direct correlation between optimal charging station placement and major traffic corridors such as cities with ports, e.g., Los Angeles and Oakland. Corresponding parametric sweeps reveal that while good quality of service can be achieved with a mix of 1.2-megawatt and 100-kilowatt chargers, the resultant fast charging time of 35–40 min will need higher charging power to reach parity with refueling times.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China

China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO 2 -eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CharIN Megawatt Charging System: 4 th Event Summary Report

Medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles require higher charging power levels than are supported by present light-duty EV charging standards. The Charging Interface Initiative (CharIN) Megawatt Charging System (MCS) Task Force is undertaking efforts to develop a new high-power charging standard for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification. The fourth MCS evaluation event at NREL focused on thermal and mechanical performance evaluations of high-power MCS electric vehicle charging connectors and inlets from several different manufacturers, at current levels up to 3000A. Additionally, the event evaluated the performance of a reference inlet design, which will provide a baseline level of thermal performance for use in future evaluation and certification efforts of MCS connectors.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electrifying Road Trips to and from National Parks in the Western United States

We evaluate charging infrastructure requirement for electrified long-distance travels to/from national parks in the Western U.S. We conduct a high-resolution spatial and temporal analysis of road trips in the region, accounting for detailed travel volume and pattern, the type of electric vehicles, heterogeneous energy consumption rates depending on driving conditions, charging technology (e.g., power and speed), and charging behavior. The scope includes on-route (or way-point) charging as well as destination charging (in national parks). We estimate the locations and sizes of required charging stations in the entire Western U.S. to enable electrified road trips to/from national parks. We also examine environmental justice and energy equity aspects of projected charging infrastructure (for national parks) in the context of the overall vehicle electrification and charging infrastructure build-out.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Production, fuel properties and combustion testing of an iso-olefins blendstock for modern vehicles

With the increasing pressure to decarbonize the transportation sector, exploring strategies that can reduce emissions from light-duty vehicles (LDV) has become critical. Bioblendstocks that allow for higher engine efficiency and fuel economy could complement vehicle electrification and help reach carbon neutrality by 2050. In this context, the potential of a mixture of iso-olefins as a bioblendstock was investigated for multimode boosted spark-ignition (SI)/advanced compression ignition (ACI) engine operation designed to achieve higher overall vehicle fuel economy. By establishing the relationship between the molecular structure of iso-olefins and research octane number (RON), octane sensitivity (S) (i.e., the difference between RON and motor octane number [MON]), and phi-sensitivity a dimethyl-hexenes rich olefins mixture (DMHROM) was identified as a preferred blendstock for SI/ACI combustion engines. Here, a pathway for DMHROM production from biomass-derived ethanol was developed and scaled up. More than 1 gallon of DMHROM blendstock was produced for fuel properties assessment including engine testing. Measurements in a Cooperative Fuel Research Engine showed that the DMHROM blendstock possesses a RON of 94 and S of 13.5, and blends synergistically. Rapid compression machine tests coupled with single-cylinder gasoline direct injection engine measurements demonstrated the 20 vol.% DMHROM blend has higher phi-sensitivity than an olefin-free gasoline base fuel and a typical California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) gasoline fuel. These results demonstrate the potential of DMHROM for improving gasoline fuel performance and quality for operation under ACI conditions. The effectiveness of the aftertreatment system in mitigating emissions was verified and showed that the pure DMHROM blendstock and 20 vol.% blend would not increase non-methane organic gases, NO x , and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. The DMHROM blendstock was found to slightly decrease sooting tendency when added to a gasoline-base fuel (i.e., ~6% reduction at 20 vol.% blending level). Oxidation stability and lubricant compatibility were both confirmed for the 20 vol.% blend. Overall, these results demonstrate that dimethyl-hexenes have potential for improving engine efficiency and fuel economy while meeting emissions regulations and ASTM specifications for gasoline fuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantum Computing in Next-Generation Transportation Optimization

We explore how quantum computing (QC) can advance transportation optimization, with a focus on two high-impact areas: traffic signal control and vehicle electrification with grid integration. As transportation systems grow in complexity, classical optimization methods increasingly struggle to deliver scalable and efficient solutions, particularly for real-time, data-rich environments. This work identifies key challenges within these two domains where QC may offer advantages, particularly in handling combinatorial decision spaces and dynamic constraints. We begin by outlining the limitations of classical approaches for traffic signal control optimization and electric vehicle charging coordination, highlighting where computational limitations arise. Previous quantum formulations are presented and new formulations are proposed to demonstrate how emerging quantum algorithms, including quantum annealing and the Quantum Approximation Optimization Algorithm, could be leveraged to reformulate and address these problems. We also evaluate the suitability of current quantum hardware and discuss recent trends that indicate when QC may become a viable tool for transportation applications. While acknowledging the present limitations of QC technologies, this poster emphasizes the importance of preparing quantum-compatible models today. By reviewing and establishing formulations that align with the strengths of quantum algorithms, researchers and practitioners can better position themselves to take advantage of QC advancements as they occur. This work aims to provide a practical, forward-looking perspective on the near-term potential of quantum computing in transportation optimization.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Fast Charging Infrastructure for Electrifying Road Trips to and from National Parks in the Western United States

National parks in the Western United States draw over 80 million visitors every year, and most visitors rely on personal cars for their road trips (or long-distance travels). Travel to national parks represents distinct travel demand, as they are typically located in remote areas necessitating long-distance trips. This study investigates the quantity and locations of on-route fast charging infrastructure needed by 2030 to enable seamless travel to/from national parks using electric vehicles in seven target states in the region, employing unprecedented high-resolution spatial and temporal analysis. We find that the required number of fast charging ports for on-route charging infrastructure ranges from 1,200 to 22,000, depending on different assumptions of key input parameters - vehicle electrification rate, charging behavior, average gap between charging stations, port utilization rate, and towing trailers. Our analysis also indicates that electrical load for on-route fast charging infrastructure would peak in the afternoon, in the range of 70-400 MW, varying with the key input parameters. This study illustrates how different input parameters result in different degrees of impact on various aspects of charging infrastructure. We also examine the characteristics of projected charging infrastructure in terms of land use type, relationship with traffic volume, size of stations, and other variables.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

In Situ Ion‐Exchange Metathesis Induced Conformal LiF Surface Films on Cathode (NMC811) as a Cathode Electrolyte Interphase

High-capacity cathodes (LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 , NMC811) are promising for vehicle electrification because of their high gravimetric energy density. However, their electrochemical performance still relies upon the stability of the cathode electrolyte interphase (CEI). A highly reactive cathode interface leads to parasitic side reactions with electrolytes, resulting in accelerated capacity fading. Well-developed LiF and LiF-like inorganic compounds are believed to be good CEI components for stabilizing such reactive electrode interfaces. However, it is challenging to form an optimal surface sub-nanolayer of LiF on the cathode surfaces because of the complexity of the electrochemical reaction during battery cycling. Herein, the formation of a conformal LiF layer on the NMC811 electrode surface via an in situ ion-exchange metathesis process is reported, demonstrating a promising electrochemical performance because of a LiF-stabilized CEI. In situ generated LiF-coated NMC811 electrodes exhibit ≈97% capacity retention up to 100 cycles at a 0.3 C rate with average coulombic efficiency of ≈99.9% and ≈80% capacity retention up to 200 cycles at a 1 C rate with average coulombic efficiency of >99.6%. This finding may pave the way for reengineering the CEI to enhance the electrochemical performances and cycling stability of the high-capacity cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Enhancing Cycling Stability and Capacity Retention of NMC811 Cathodes by Reengineering Interfaces via Electrochemical Fluorination

High-capacity cathodes (LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 ) that can boost the energy density of lithium-ion batteries are promising candidates for vehicle electrification. However, several factors specific to high energy density materials entailing electrode reactions inhibit their application. Fluorination has shown a promising ability to combat the detrimental electrochemical performances of cathode materials, however, it remains difficult to achieve the desired functionality. In this work, a novel electrochemical fluorination (ECF) that demonstrates a promising electrochemical performance enhancement via stabilization of the cathode–electrolyte-interphase (CEI) by forming conformal LiF is proposed. Besides LiF surface layer formation, ECF reduces the degree of fluorination-induced Ni/Li disordering and enhances the layered structural stability as probed by X-ray diffraction. Because of the robust CEI, ECF-NMC811 cathodes deliver 203.0 mAh g -1 first discharge capacity at the current rate of C/10, with ≈98% capacity retention up to 100 cycles. Similarly, it delivers ≈180 mAh g -1 capacity at a 1 C rate with 86.4% capacity retention up to 200 cycles with average coulombic efficiency of > 99.5%. Comprehensive characterization with a multitude of probes reveals that ECF enhances the cycling stability of the electrode without altering bulk structure and morphology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Understanding of Low‐Porosity Sulfur Electrode for High‐Energy Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

Abstract The lithium–sulfur (Li–S) battery is a promising technology for large‐scale energy storage and vehicle electrification due to its high theoretical energy density and low cost. Reducing the sulfur cathode porosity has been identified recently as a viable strategy for improving the cell practical energy density and minimizing pore‐filling electrolytes to extend cell life at lean electrolyte conditions. Direct use of a low‐porosity cathode for Li–S battery results in poor electrode wetting, nonuniform electrode reactions, and thus early cell failure. To understand and mitigate the barriers associated with the use of low‐porosity electrodes, multiscale modeling is performed to predict electrode wetting, electrolyte diffusion, and their impacts on sulfur reactions in Li–S cells by explicitly considering the electrode wettability impacts and electrode morphologies. The study elucidates the critical impact of low tortuosity and large channel pore design for promoting electrode wetting and species diffusion. It is suggested that the secondary particle size should be comparable with the electrode thickness to effectively promote electrolyte wettability and sulfur reactivity. This study provides new insights into the low‐porosity electrode material and designs and is expected to accelerate the development of practical high‐energy Li–S batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt

As a potential source of low-carbon transportation energy, biofuels offer certain advantages over vehicle electrification (e.g., lower societal vulnerability to grid failures, and improved range of sustainable aviation), but also several challenges, including cost, carbon intensity, and land usage. There are also well-founded concerns that biofuel supply chains could be disrupted if extreme weather events impact feedstock yields. In this paper, we explore the use of multi-objective optimization to identify biofuel production pathways that balance cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and supply vulnerability to extreme weather. We compare the use of three different many-objective evolutionary algorithms and linear programming in optimizing biomass cultivation decisions in the U.S. Corn Belt under weather uncertainty using historical, modeled, and synthetic yield data. We consider four feedstock choices (corn, soy, switchgrass, and algae) with two land types (agricultural and marginal lands) and evaluate decisions using three alternative spatial resolutions (ranging from the USDA agricultural district level to the state level). Results show that feedstock choice is the primary driver of objective performance (i.e., the position and shape of 3D, approximate Pareto frontiers). Spatial diversification is a less effective tool in reducing exposure to weather-caused drops in crop yield.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Future Energy Scenarios

Many greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures achieve simultaneous reductions in air pollutants. Human-Earth system models can estimate such emission changes in the energy system but using them in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to study their air quality impacts involves resource-intensive emissions processing. This is greatly simplified by an emissions scaling approach linking state-level emissions estimated by a human-Earth system model to a CTM. A scenario continuing pre-2022 energy policy in the U.S. to 2050 shows widespread air quality improvements over the 2015 baseline from SO 2 and NO x emission reductions of 50–80% from electricity generation and light-duty vehicles. Scenarios of GHG mitigation and vehicle electrification at the state and national level add further benefits. However, PM 2.5 increases from increased use of wood heating and bioenergy suggest that additional PM 2.5 management may be needed when using biofuels. In conclusion, this approach helps assess multiple future energy scenarios efficiently without sacrificing chemical detail in the air quality simulations.

air quality↗