Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variance reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Optical rate sensor algorithms

Optical sensors, in particular Charge Coupled Device (CCD) arrays, will be used on Space Station to track stars in order to provide inertial attitude reference. Algorithms are presented to derive attitude rate from the optical sensors. The first algorithm is a recursive differentiator. A variance reduction factor (VRF) of 0.0228 was achieved with a rise time of 10 samples. A VRF of 0.2522 gives a rise time of 4 samples. The second algorithm is based on the direct manipulation of the pixel intensity outputs of the sensor. In 1-dimensional simulations, the derived rate was with 0.07 percent of the actual rate in the presence of additive Gaussian noise with a signal to noise ratio of 60 dB.

Uhde-Lacovara, Jo A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Efficiency and discrepancy in the direct simulation methods

The paper reviews the factors that affect the versatility, computational efficiency, and accuracy of the various direct simulation methods that are being applied to problems in rarefied gas dynamics. The quality of the simulation can be affected by the underlying motivation and objectives. The influence of computer hardware developments on the cost-effectiveness is discussed, as are the software factors that influence the speed with which simulation programs can be applied to new problems. Particular attention is given to a novel method that improves the efficiency of the simulation for complex three-dimensional problems. The topical issues of reduced resolution procedures, stored lists, and variance reduction schemes are discussed in some detail.

Bird, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Efficiency and discrepancy in the direct simulation methods

The paper reviews the factors that affect the versatility, computational efficiency, and accuracy of the various direct simulation methods that are being applied to problems in rarefied gas dynamics. The influence of computer hardware developments on the cost-effectiveness is discussed, as are the software factors that influence the speed with which simulation programs can be applied to new problems. Particular attention is given to a novel method that improves the efficiency of the simulation for complex 3D problems. The topical issues of reduced resolution procedures, stored lists, and variance reduction schemes are discussed in some detail.

Bird, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

General Monte Carlo reliability simulation code including common mode failures and HARP fault/error-handling

A Monte Carlo Fortran computer program was developed that uses two variance reduction techniques for computing system reliability applicable to solving very large highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. The program is consistent with the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) code which employs behavioral decomposition and complex fault-error handling models. This new capability is called MC-HARP which efficiently solves reliability models with non-constant failures rates (Weibull). Common mode failure modeling is also a specialty.

Platt, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Inclusion of the second Umkehr in the conventional Umkehr retrieval analysis as a means of improving ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere

The Umkehr method for retrieving the gross features of the vertical ozone distribution requires measurements of the ratio of zenith-sky radiances at two wavelengths in the near-UV region while the solar zenith angle (SZA) changes from 60 to 90 degrees. A Brewer spectrophotometer was used for taking such measurements extending the SZA range down to 96 degrees. Analyzed data from the Spring of 1991 imply that observations at twilight are of great significance in improving ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere. Judged by the variance reduction for Umkehr layers 9 to 12 (25-30 percent for layer 11) and the increase in separation and amplitude of the averaging kernels for the relevant layers, the ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere are shown to be in better agreement with climatological means.

Gioulgkidis, Konstantinos↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Climatic Variability on Atmospheric Mass Distribution and GRACE-Derived Gravity Fields

During the period we calculated the atmospheric data sets related to its mass and angular momentum distribution. For mass, we determined the various harmonics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, especially the low-order harmonics that are useful in studying the gravitation distribution as will be determined from the GRACE mission. Atmospheric mass is also related to the atmospheric loading on the solid Earth; we cooperated with scientists who needed the atmospheric mass information for understanding its contributions to the overall loading, necessary for vertical and horizontal coordinate estimation. We calculated atmospheric angular momentum from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and 4 operational meteorological centers, based on the motion (wind) terms and the mass (surface pressure) terms. These are associated with motions of the planet, including its axial component causing changes in the length of day, more related to the winds, and the equatorial component related to motions of the pole, more related to the mass. Tasks related to the ocean mass and angular momentum were added to the project as well. For these we have noted the ocean impact on motions of the pole as well as the torque mechanisms that relate the transfer of angular momentum between oceans and solid earth. The activities of the project may be summarized in the following first manuscript written in December 2002, for a symposium that Dr. Salstein attended on Geodynamics. We have continued to assess ocean angular momentum (OAM) quantities derived from bottom pressure and velocity fields estimated with our finite-difference barotropic (single layer) model. Three years of output (1993-95) from a run without any data constraints was compared to output from a corresponding run that was constrained by altimeter data using a Kalman filter and smoother scheme. Respective OAM time series were combined with corresponding atmospheric series and compared to observed polar motion. The constrained OAM series provided slightly better variance reduction than the unconstrained series. Analysis provided a check on the estimation scheme and pointed to further work to improve the determination of OAM using this method. A significant effort was also devoted to quantifying effects of uncertainties in high frequency winds on the mean and seasonal momentum exchange between atmosphere and oceans.

Salstein, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

On the Exploitation of Sensitivity Derivatives for Improving Sampling Methods

Many application codes, such as finite-element structural analyses and computational fluid dynamics codes, are capable of producing many sensitivity derivatives at a small fraction of the cost of the underlying analysis. This paper describes a simple variance reduction method that exploits such inexpensive sensitivity derivatives to increase the accuracy of sampling methods. Three examples, including a finite-element structural analysis of an aircraft wing, are provided that illustrate an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy for both Monte Carlo and stratified sampling schemes.

Cao, Yanzhao↗
NASA NTRS2006

Diurnal Variability of Vertical Structure from a TRMM Passive Microwave "Virtual Radar" Retrieval

Robust description of the diurnal cycle from TRMM observations is complicated by the limitations of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sampling; from a 'climatological' perspective, sufficient sampling must exist to control for both spatial and seasonal variability, before tackling an additional diurnal component (e.g., with 8 additional 3-hourly or 24 1-hourly bins). For documentation of vertical structure, the narrow sample swath of the TRMM Precipitation Radar limits the resolution of any of these components. A neural-network based 'virtual radar" retrieval has been trained and internally validated, using multifrequency / multipolarization passive microwave(TM1) brightness temperatures and textures parameters and lightning (LIS) observations, as inputs, and PR volumetric reflectivity as targets (outputs). By training the algorithms (essentially highly multivariate, nonlinear regressions) on a very large sample of high-quality co-located data from the center of the TRMM swath, 3D radar reflectivity and derived parameters (VIL, IWC, Echo Tops, etc.) can be retrieved across the entire TMI swath, good to 8-9% over the dynamic range of parameters. As a step in the retrieval (and as an output of the process), each TMI multifrequency pixel (at 85 GHz resolution) is classified into one of the 25 archetypal radar profile vertical structure "types", previously identified using cluster analysis. The dynamic range of retrieved vertical structure appears to have higher fidelity than the current (Version 6) experimental GPROF hydrometeor vertical structure retrievals. This is attributable to correct representation of the prior probabilities of vertical structure variability in the neural network training data, unlike the GPROF cloud-resolving model training dataset used in the V6 algorithms. The LIS lightning inputs are supplementary inputs, and a separate offline neural network has been trained to impute (predict) LIS lightning from passive-microwave-only data. The virtual radar retrieval is thus, in principle, extensible to Aqua/AMSR-E and NPOESS/CMIS passive microwave instruments. The virtual radar approach yields a threefold increase in effective sampling from the mission, albeit of lower-quality "retrieved" data, reducing the variance of local estimates by one third (or the standard deviation by-0.57). In this talk, the variance reduction is leveraged to more finely resolve global diurnal variability in both space and time (local hour).

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao↗
NASA NTRS2021

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗
NASA NTRS2000

Three Averaging Techniques for Reduction of Antenna Temperature Variance Measured by a Dicke Mode, C-Band Radiometer

As new radiometer technologies provide the possibility of greatly improved spatial resolution, their performance must also be evaluated in terms of expected sensitivity and absolute accuracy. As aperture size increases, the sensitivity of a Dicke mode radiometer can be maintained or improved by application of any or all of three digital averaging techniques: antenna data averaging with a greater than 50% antenna duty cycle, reference data averaging, and gain averaging. An experimental, noise-injection, benchtop radiometer at C-band showed a 68.5% reduction in Delta-T after all three averaging methods had been applied simultaneously. For any one antenna integration time, the optimum 34.8% reduction in Delta-T was realized by using an 83.3% antenna/reference duty cycle.

Mackenzie, Anne I.↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the effectiveness of Geosat altimeter corrections

Measurements of sea level by a satellite altimeter require a number of corrections for atmospheric and geophysical effects. The paper examines the effectiveness of a large suite of correction terms for Geosat by studying how each correction affects the variances of altimetric sea-surface height differences. Most corrections were found to provide a significant reduction in variance, the most important exception being certain short-period wet-troposphere correlations. The present procedure of using height differences implies nothing about the time-invariant parts of corrections.

Ray, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the sea-state bias of the Geosat altimeter

The sea-state bias in a satellite altimeter's range measurement is caused by the influence of ocean waves on the radar return pulse; it results in an estimate of sea level that is too low according to some function of the wave height. This bias is here estimated for Geosat by correlating collinear differences of altimetric sea-surface heights with collinear differences of significant wave heights (H1/3). Corrections for satellite orbit error are estimated simultaneously with the sea-state bias. Based on twenty 17-day repeat cycles of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission, the solution for the sea-state bias is 2.6 + or - 0.2 percent of H1/3. The least-squares residuals, however, show a correlation with wind speed U, so the traditional model of the bias has been supplemented with a second term: H1/3 + alpha-2H1/3U. This second term produces a small, but statistically significant, reduction in variance of the residuals. Both systematic and random errors in H1/3 and U tend to bias the estimates of alpha-1 and alpha-2, which complicates comparisons of the results with ground-based measurements of the sea-state bias.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Correlated environmental corrections in TOPEX/POSEIDON, with a note on ionospheric accuracy

Estimates of the effectiveness of an altimetric correction, and interpretation of sea level variability as a response to atmospheric forcing, both depend upon assuming that residual errors in altimetric corrections are uncorrelated among themselves and with residual sea level, or knowing the correlations. Not surprisingly, many corrections are highly correlated since they involve atmospheric properties and the ocean surface's response to them. The full corrections (including their geographically varying time mean values), show correlations between electromagnetic bias (mostly the height of wind waves) and either atmospheric pressure or water vapor of -40%, and between atmospheric pressure and water vapor of 28%. In the more commonly used collinear differences (after removal of the geographically varying time mean), atmospheric pressure and wave height show a -30% correlation, atmospheric pressure and water vapor a -10% correlation, both pressure and water vapor a 7% correlation with residual sea level, and a bit surprisingly, ionospheric electron content and wave height a 15% correlation. Only the ocean tide is totally uncorrelated with other corrections or residual sea level. The effectiveness of three ionospheric corrections (TOPEX dual-frequency, a smoothed version of the TOPEX dual-frequency, and Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) is also evaluated in terms of their reduction in variance of residual sea level. Smooth (90-200 km along-track) versions of the dual-frequency altimeter ionosphere perform best both globally and within 20 deg in latitude from the equator. The noise variance in the 1/s TOPEX inospheric samples is approximately (11 mm) squared, about the same as noise in the DORIS-based correction; however, the latter has its error over scales of order 10(exp 3) km. Within 20 deg of the equator, the DORIS-based correction adds (14 mm) squared to the residual sea level variance.

Zlotnicki, V.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evidence for Solar-Cycle Forcing and Secular Variation in the Armagh Observatory Temperature Record

A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s, this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation, the long-term, annual, mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, North Ireland), a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards, is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects, each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance, yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals, furthermore, strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic, inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected), while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e., the length of two, sequentially numbered, even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at less than 2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996, the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average, implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 q 0.23 C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 C).

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

M2 Internal Tides and Their Observed Wavenumber Spectra from Satellite Altimetry*

A near-global chart of surface elevations associated with the stationary M2 internal tide is empirically constructed from multi-mission satellite altimeter data. An advantage of a strictly empirical mapping approach is that results are independent of assumptions about ocean wave dynamics and, in fact, can be used to test such assumptions. A disadvantage is that present-day altimeter coverage is only marginally adequate to support mapping such short-wavelength features. Moreover, predominantly north-south ground-track orientations and contamination from nontidal oceanographic variability can lead to deficiencies in mapped tides. Independent data from Cryosphere Satellite-2 (CryoSat-2) and other altimeters are used to test the solutions and show positive reduction in variance except in regions of large mesoscale variability. The tidal fields are subjected to two-dimensional wavenumber spectral analysis, which allows for the construction of an empirical map of modal wavelengths. Mode-1 wavelengths show good agreement with theoretical wavelengths calculated from the ocean's mean stratification, with a few localized exceptions (e.g., Tasman Sea). Mode-2 waves are detectable in much of the ocean, with wavelengths in reasonable agreement with theoretical expectations, but their spectral signatures grow too weak to map in some regions.

Ray, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Evaluation of three-category classification

The author has identified the following signficant results. Examination of both machine estimates and stratified areal estimates produced by clustering and classification reveal no significant differences between the proportion estimates and ground truth estimates. When testing the variances of the machine estimates, a significant reduction in the variances was found when the number of starting dots was increased from 30 to 45. The variances were again reduced, although not significantly, when the number of starting dots was increased from 45 to 60. From these results, 60 starting dots are recommended for a three-category classifier. When examining the variances of the estimates for the four estimation procedures (using 60 dots), no significant differences were found between procedures. Thus, only the machine clustering may be used to produce an estimate, and the stratified areal estimate computations and maximum likelihood classification can be deleted.

Havens, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Trajectory-Estimation Error Analysis

Orbital and Geodetic Parameter Estimation Error Analysis Program (ORAN) is Bayesian least-squares simulation program for orbital trajectories. ORAN does not process data; rather, computes accuracy of results of data reduction if measurements are processed by minimum-variance data-reduction program. Actual data used to provide time when given measurement was available and estimated noise on that measurement.

Putney, B.↗